Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Togiak, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warming trend continues with temperatures reaching the 80s this weekend.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow along the AlCan Border, then become more widespread Sunday into Monday.
- Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected in the Tanana Valley Monday afternoon.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showers are expected to continue along the West Coast through Saturday. High temperatures should remain cool, 50s and 60s, as a result.

- 70s are likely in the Western Interior over the weekend, reaching the low 80s by Monday afternoon.

- Isolated thunderstorms over the weekend.
- The Western Interior should expect more widely scattered thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures begin to reach the 60s and 70s this weekend in the Arctic Plain, with 50s and low 60s along the coast.
- The North Slope and Anaktuvuk Pass could see high temperatures reach 77F Sunday afternoon/evening.

- Isolated thunderstorms in the Western Brooks Range are possible Sunday and Monday afternoon.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A high pressure system centered over the Northern Yukon builds and strengthens over most of Interior Alaska by Saturday afternoon. A shortwave associated with this system moves into our area by Sunday afternoon, strengthening our thunderstorm chances, especially in the Western Interior. This system is also increasing our surface temperatures, warming quickly from our previously below-normal trend. Meanwhile, the low pressure system that has been bringing in rain for the last few days along the West Coast begins to back off by Sunday, decreasing precipitation chances in that region.

FIRE WEATHER
Our warming trend continues into this weekend, reaching into the 80s for much of the Interior. Min RHs are expected to be as low as 20 percent in Fairbanks and the Yukon Flats. Wind speeds will be relatively light and variable through most of the region through Sunday morning. However, expect strengthening winds, up to 10 to 15 mph in the Yukon Flats along with min RHs around 20 percent and high temperatures around 90 degrees Sunday and Monday afternoon.

Thunderstorm chances and frequency increase over the next few days, with potential for widely scattered storms from the Tanana Valley to the Western Interior, especially Sunday and Monday.



HYDROLOGY
Flooding is likely across portions of the North Slope due to an unusually deep and persistent late-season snowpack combined with a sharp and prolonged warming trend through next week. A rapid onset of snowmelt has begun as temperatures have warmed into the 50's and 60's over the past couple of days across the North Slope and are expected to remain well above average through the middle of next week. River levels have begun to rise and will likely crest early next week. Ice has begun to breakup on the upper part of the Sag River on Thursday with DOT reporting water over a portion of the Dalton Highway near MP 323. Reports also show that the Colville River is beginning to breakup, though no impacts have been reported yet. Intact ice remains on many of the larger rivers, and the sudden influx of snowmelt runoff could lead to ice jam formation. These jams can cause sudden and severe rises in water levels, posing a significant threat to roads or other infrastructure near the affected waterways.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Upper level ridging will persist through the end of next week with above normal temperatures, thunderstorms and low min RHs. The West Coast will be drying out after this weekend and remain mostly dry outside of some afternoon showers and storms. The North Slope will begin to see some weak northerly flow which will keep their temperatures on the cooler side, especially along the immediate coastline.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ804>806-808>810.
Heat Advisory for AKZ833>835-838>846.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-817-852>854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.