Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 10:32 PM Moonrise 4:51 AM   Moonset 12:42 AM

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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 347 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.Tonight - NW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Thu and Thu night - N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Fri - N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Sat - N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Sun - N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 102324 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 324 PM AKDT Fri May 10 2024

SYNOPSIS
No significant change to the forecast as shower chances continue for the next several days. Winds through the AK Range passes will increase from the south today with gusts of 30 to 45 mph expected through early tomorrow morning. Winds along the NW Arctic Coast will continue to weaken tonight as a low near Wainwright drifts north and weakens. The West Coast will be experiencing slightly modified temperatures this weekend with the Interior and North Slope seeing similar temperatures to today. A Flood Watch continues for the Yukon River near and upstream from Circle due to an ice jam 12 miles upstream from Circle.

DISCUSSION
Upper Level Analysis...
The 12Z deterministic models initialized relatively well. A 528 decameter low was located between Wainwright and Point Lay. To the east-northeast there is a 545 decameter high which extends south through Canada and into the Pacific Northwest. A 520 decameter low was centered near Unalaska with an inverted trough extending northeast into SW AK. The energy over the Gulf of Alaska will surge northward today providing gusty southerly gap flow.

Surface Analysis...
At 22Z a 992 mb low was located near Unalaska and is expected to continue to fill as it moves east to the AK Peninsula through Saturday evening. A 1011 mb low was located offshore between Wainwright and Barrow and will continue to drift north and fill through Sunday evening. High pressure extended from NW AK across the western Brooks Range to the White Mountains. A few subtle areas of low pressure were noted on southern periphery of the central Brooks Range and over the northwest White Mountains.
Isolated to scattered showers will continue in the Interior this evening with isolated rain and snow showers along the West Coast and North Slope. This trend of isolated showers continues for Sunday and Monday as well.

Cyclonic flow was evident on VIIRS satellite along the Arctic Coast near Utqiagvik and Wainwright and sporadic snow showers were reported. Look for clouds and periodic snow showers to persist tonight and Saturday morning as the area of low pressure moves farther north into the Arctic Ocean. Fog may redevelop along the Arctic Coast late tonight due to radiational cooling with mainly clear skies.

Isolated to scattered showers over the Interior will continue this afternoon and evening. Another round of showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, are forecast for Saturday. By Sunday afternoon, the area of low pressure near Unalaska will propagate to near Prince William Sound with a lobe of vorticity breaking free and propagating inland along the ALCAN border. Falling heights aloft and a surge of low- level moisture from the Gulf of Alaska will result in widespread rain showers at lower elevations of the Interior and snow showers in the higher elevations of the Alaska Range and White Mountains. A few thunderstorms are possible from the north slopes of the Alaska Range north and east into the Yukon Flats.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 through this weekend.
Isolated to scattered showers are forecast off and on throughout the weekend as more disturbances move through the area. Southerly gap winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are forecast tonight and Saturday morning from Isabel Pass to Delta Junction.
Near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast with minimum RH values of 20 to 30%. Wind speeds and gusts will be decreasing as RHs fall Saturday morning and afternoon.

HYDROLOGY
A Flood Watch remains in effect through this afternoon, but may be pushed out longer depending on what the Riverwatch team observes today. As of yesterday evening, a persistent ice jam remains 12 miles upstream from Circle. Water levels have been holding steady both below and above the ice jam. This has led to some minor overbank flooding on the south side of the river, near the upper end of the jam, approximately 20 miles upstream from Circle. The flood risk at Circle has been gradually decreasing as the ice slowly clears out of the braided channels. The ice on the Yukon River between Circle and Fort Yukon continues to break up slowly. Many minor jams were observed between Circle and Fort Yukon. Water is high, covering gravel bars and into the willows, but no overbank flooding has been observed. The gradual breakup trend is expected to continue with the ice at Fort Yukon slowly breaking up over the next few days.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.

Black Rock
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Fri -- 02:42 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:15 AM AKDT     9.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:21 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:51 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:15 PM AKDT     3.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:41 PM AKDT     6.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:54 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:57 PM AKDT     -2.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Black Rock, Walrus Islands, Nushagak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Hagemeister Island (north end)
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Fri -- 02:45 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:52 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:59 AM AKDT     12.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:14 PM AKDT     4.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:59 PM AKDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:57 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hagemeister Island (north end), Alaska, Tide feet

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