Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Clark's Point, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 9:59AMSunset 3:45PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 3:54 AM AKST (12:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:19PMMoonset 7:13AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 351 Am Akst Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory Wednesday...
Today..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tonight..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Wed..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
Wed night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu..N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clark's Point, AK
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location: 58.85, -158.55     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 100202 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 502 PM AKST Mon Dec 9 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. The surface low dropped to a central pressure close to 950 mb today and it moved out of Bristol Bay toward Nunivak Island. The front associated with this low is slowly moving from south-to- north through Southcentral Alaska today. This front is the source of the strong winds and heavy rain over the region.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are still doing well with the synoptic pattern into late in the week. The exception is the GEM model which is significantly different by Thursday night and is not being incorporated into the forecasts.

AVIATION. PANC . Gusty southeast winds should have moved into the airport by late this afternoon. These winds are expected to persist through the evening and then significantly diminish around midnight. There is the potential for MVFR ceilings after midnight.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Monday night through Wednesday) .

Low pressure continues impact Southcentral Alaska, bringing high winds and heavy rain to areas of our forecast area. Specifically, winds have been gusting down Turnagain Arm to Hurricane Force at times. A high wind warning remains in effect until 600PM AKST tonight as a result. Other areas around the Anchorage Bowl experiencing windy conditions are the upper hillside, Eagle River and Palmer/Wasilla area. Winds will die down tonight as the low pushes north.

As far as precipitation goes, coastal regions have been receiving quite a bit of precipitation in the form of rain with the very warm temperatures we have been seeing today. Some areas - mainly the Kenai Peninsula - have received us much as two inches of rain, including a spotter report near Homer of 1.9 inches earlier today. Rain will continue through the rest of the day. This amount of rain (also melting the snow) has prompted the River Forecast Center to issue a flood advisory for the Anchor River until 1215PM tomorrow. We are expecting rain to taper off tonight as the low pushes north, though streams will remain high into tomorrow.

After we get past tonight, we'll catch a brief lull in the weather before the next system comes in Wednesday. The next round of weather will arrive in similar fashion with another low sending weather towards the coast out of the Gulf of Alaska. This next low will be located farther east and will not be as strong as what we are seeing today. What this means for our forecast area is more wind and rain midweek.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A 954 mb low just south of Nunivak Island will move offshore into the Bering through Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, winds will diminish by midday Tuesday for coastal locations. An area of blowing snow between Kipnuk and Hooper Bay, as well as on Nunivak Island, will develop overnight Monday and should taper off by Tuesday morning. Tuesday will otherwise be a quiet period for Southwest Alaska before another north Pacific low enters the area on Wednesday. Forecast guidance suggests precipitation crossing the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday morning, however the continued northern extent of precipitation is somewhat uncertain based on the storm's track. Highest amounts of rain are offshore at this time, but any shift in the storm's path could affect this. Extensive warm air from the Pacific suggests a mostly rain event at this time.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

The low pushing offshore in western Alaska will bring strong winds to the north Bering through Tuesday night. Strong cold air advection in the western Bering will be responsible for snow showers across much of the Bering west of the Pribilofs through Wednesday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

. Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters .

Thursday the models have a weakening low near Bristol Bay/Eastern Bering and a mature system near Kamchatka with a surface low ranging from 971 mb - 975 mb. Friday this low is near Attu Island/Shemya and the models bring it eastward. Expect gale force winds to materialize near the Aleutians. Light to heavy freezing spray is expected near Nunivak Island on Thursday and again on Saturday.

. Gulf of Alaska .

A low will move into the region bringing widespread small crafts and the potential for gale force winds. Given the long fetch length, seas are expected to build to 20 to 25 feet on Thursday. The rough seas will linger into Friday. Currently, the expectation is that the seas will subside on Saturday but as the new model runs become available that may change. Stay tuned.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

From the onset of this forecast period, the global models are not in sync projecting the track and the intensity of a low near the mainland and a second low near Kamchatka. The NCEP RMOP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction Relative Measure Of Predictability) displays large swaths of low confidence territory from the Bering to the Gulf Of Alaska and over the mainland at 72hrs and beyond. However, a few items can be gleaned from the models. Expect more cyclogenesis and unsettled weather for the Bering and the Aleutians. For the southern tier of the mainland, temperatures will be near or slightly above normal.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NPW 101 125. MARINE . Gales 119 120 125 130-132 136-139 160 165 177-181 185 351 352 411 412 414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . DK MARINE/LONG TERM . PS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dillingham, Dillingham Airport, AK14 mi58 minSE 1410.00 miOvercast36°F33°F89%987.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADL

Wind History from ADL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE4CalmE3NE4CalmE3NE5NE7NE9NE9NE11NE10
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2 days agoSE12SE12S13S11S14
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S5CalmS3S4CalmCalmCalmS3S3S3S5CalmS3S6SE3CalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for Nushagak Bay (Clark's Point), Alaska
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Nushagak Bay (Clark's Point)
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Tue -- 12:49 AM AKST     15.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:35 AM AKST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:13 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:15 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:23 PM AKST     18.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:18 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:38 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:25 PM AKST     7.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.915.314.312.19.15.92.910.82.76.110.113.816.61817.916.414.211.69.27.77.89.411.5

Tide / Current Tables for Snag Point, Nushagak Bay, Alaska
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Snag Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:38 AM AKST     15.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:14 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:42 AM AKST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:16 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 03:12 PM AKST     18.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:17 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:36 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:32 PM AKST     6.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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13.415.115.414.211.995.9310.62.56.110.314.21718.317.816.213.710.98.36.66.68.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.