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PKZ011 Glacier Bay- 255 Pm Akst Thu Dec 7 2023
Tonight..S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
Fri..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
Fri night..SE wind 10 kt becoming N late. Seas building to 3 ft late. Snow.
Sat..N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
Sat night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 080056 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 356 PM AKST Thu Dec 7 2023

SHORT TERM
/Thursday night through Saturday/...Complicated forecast for the later short term, especially going into the weekend. For Friday, a troughing feature is expected to encourage some snow generation in the Icy Strait corridor, Juneau, and the northern panhandle. Surface temperatures up to 850 mb look favorable for some snow accumulation, however warm air advection in this section of the atmosphere has pushed the area of ideal lift in the atmosphere away from the dendrite zone. Any snow that falls near sea level is likely to be high in water content. As the troughing feature departs to the south, some pull of cold air from the north will cool then panhandle north to south Friday evening.

Saturday continues to be a less confident forecast with diverging scenarios in most guidance and a wider range of possible solutions. A storm force low looks to push up from the south and pass inland near the southern tip of Baranof Island, moving northeast. Moisture from the initial frontal wave is expected to bring heavy rain to the southern panhandle for a short period of time. Unfortunately, that is where the similarities between solutions seem to end. Model guidance continues to struggle on how exactly the low will move inland and how much strength it will have before dissipating. Currently, most model upper air speeds seems to indicate that the low will retain some degree of strength as it moves inland. If this scenario plays out, then an increase in snow totals would be warranted for the northern panhandle; however, other scenarios seem to indicate that this will not play out. Furthermore, if the track of the low deviates slightly, it can directly influence how much moisture will move into the northern panhandle and how much cold air is pulled from the north.
More information can be found on the Special Weather Statement issued for the panhandle excluding Yakutat.


LONG TERM
/Sunday through Tuesday/...Continuing from the short term, model guidance has been trending towards an active pattern to set up by the start of next week with overall ridging over the panhandle into British Columbia and troughing over the Alaska Peninsula and NW gulf. The strength of this ridge building in Sunday will determine the amount of clearing (from south to north)
and drying possible over the panhandle and could influence the timing of the return of precipitation on Monday.

For early next week, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop with the above mentioned synoptic setup, leading to widespread gale force winds throughout the gulf with a front sweeping across and north into the panhandle sometime on Monday.
This feature will also bring with it enhanced rain and aim a plume of moisture towards the panhandle with periods of moderate to heavy rain likely over multiple days. Model guidance is trending towards the northern panhandle and gulf coast seeing the first surge of moisture at the onset, before a secondary stronger surge impacts the central and southern panhandle sometime Tuesday into early Wednesday. 12 hour rainfall totals for this secondary surge are showing the potential to exceed 10 and in some cases 25 year return intervals. This would likely lead to river rises in the wake of the Saturday storm, especially in the southern panhandle.

While the main focus of this event is currently the widespread heavy rain potential, strong winds also are likely to develop in the gulf and along the coastal waters and potentially reach further inland at higher elevations. With the ridge in the interior and the low spinning over the northwest gulf, a tight gradient will likely set up and persist over the southern panhandle during this timeframe as well, leading to strong gale force southerly winds pushing up from Hecate Strait up into Clarence Strait with the potential to reach storm force. Therefore strong winds would also be expected for southern Prince of Wales as well as Annette Island and Ketchikan for this time period. Stay tuned for further updates to this evolving situation as we head into the weekend.

AVIATION
MVFR conditions due to low CIGs will once again dominate Southeast Alaska for the next 24 hours. Atmosphere continues to be convective and there is the possibility of isolated thunderstorm activity for the NE Gulf tonight. The freezing level were fairly low - between 2000 and 3000 ft - which was also where most aviation models are depicting CIGs as well.
Freezing level lower as the next front approaches on Friday. LLWS becomes an issue once again by Friday mid morning because of this front and will be worst over the northern two thirds of the Panhandle. Heavier precip and increased winds move in with the next low for Saturday, especially for the southern Panhandle.

MARINE
A troughing feature will generate 25-30 knot winds extending southward from the northern gulf and moving eastward tonight and into tomorrow. Winds in the northern to central inner channels will begin to react very early Friday, with northern Lynn increasing from sustained 20 knot winds to 30 knots by late Friday morning. The bulk of the higher winds then drift southeastward and be replaced with 10- 15 knot winds through Friday evening.

Saturday morning sees a storm force, developing low move up from the south. This low looks to track northward, generating near gale force easterly winds in Sumner Strait, southern Chatham Strait, and western Fredrick Sound, then dive eastward near the southern tip of Baranof Island. The frontal band will generate storm force winds in Dixon Entrance and possibly the southern area of Clarence Strait. As the low moves in, it quickly diminishes and moves northeastward.
Winds will quickly shift from easterly and southeasterly to westerly before diminishing.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for AKZ328>330-332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>036-053-641>644-651- 652-661>664-671-672.

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Composite Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:55 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:56 AM AKST     4.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:42 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:16 AM AKST     14.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:21 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:12 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 03:56 PM AKST     4.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:53 PM AKST     12.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Composite Island, Glacier Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Muir Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:53 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:58 AM AKST     4.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:41 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:17 AM AKST     14.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:19 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:10 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 03:58 PM AKST     4.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 PM AKST     12.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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