Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Covenant Life, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:05PM Friday September 20, 2019 2:21 AM AKDT (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 8:41PMMoonset 1:23PM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ011 Glacier Bay- 328 Pm Akdt Thu Sep 19 2019
.small craft advisory Friday...
Tonight..S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain.
Fri..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Fri night..SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Sat night..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
Mon..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Covenant Life, AK
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location: 58.88, -136.57     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 192200
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
200 pm akdt Thu sep 19 2019

Short term Much of the panhandle has seen showers moving
through today. These showers have been decreasing from N to s
through the day. Current satellite imagery shows the main frontal
band moving south of the panhandle with a few light spotty showers
lingering around. Webcams are showing clouds breaking up for the
northern panhandle, but are expected to be replaced by more clouds
late this evening as the next frontal systems moves into the
area.

The parent low assoc with the next system is on the south side of
the aleutians and will track NE along the coast and into the
western gulf late tonight. The assoc frontal system will cause
winds over the outside waters to back from a westerly direction
today, to SE tonight and increase through Friday morning. A
barrier jet along the northern gulf coast (marine zones 51-52) is
expected to reach storm force for a short time Friday morning. As
the front moves into the inner channels, widespread 25-35kt winds
are expected with several areas being increased to gale force by
late Friday morning. Land areas can expect a period of 30-40mph
winds during the peak of the FROPA and similar to Wednesday's
front, gusts of 45-50mph are a good possibility.

Heavy rain will accompany the wind and is expected to slowly
spread from the yakutat area (starting around midnight tonight)
down to ketchikan by Friday evening. The entire region can expect
a period of heavy rain with this front. Went with some of the
hires model guidance for qpf. 2-4 inches of rain is forecasted
between midnight tonight and Saturday morning. Spikes on smaller
creeks and streams are likely during periods of heavy rain, but
most are expected to remain in their banks at this time. Ponding
of water in low lying areas and roads is possible. Please report
any localized flooding to our office if possible.

Long term Pity those traveling to asia from the west coast by
plane over the next week. As they will suffer longer flights than
usual due to a 150 kt westerly jet extending across the north
pacific. More importantly for us, the jet and at times its
unstable interactions between subtropical moisture and a much
cooler bering sea air mass supply a breeding ground for powerful
systems slamming into southern alaska during the mid-range. And
they will take little time to span the pacific. For the early
weekend system, we increased a few locations where winds respond
to tight east-west gradients such as juneau and tenakee springs.

While we increased pop QPF for Saturday as precipitation begins to
turn showery in more unstable cooler onshore flow, we lowered
pops Saturday night into Sunday given weak ridging and some drier
air aloft. It should be pointed out, however, that the break is
only a relative one. We still expect a good chance of showers
during the period.

A third storm now north of japan will fly across the pacific on a
slightly more northerly track and will likely entrain cooler air
than the early weekend system. We look for snow levels to lower to
around 4k feet over the north. While we left white pass as rain,
confidence in mixed precipitation around 3k feet could rise as we
draw closer. Taking a slightly more northerly track, we expect the
early weekend system to draw upon a little less tropical moisture
and so rainfall amounts do not look so daunting. However, do not
be fooled as there will be plenty of rain. In addition, we upped
wind speeds over the gulf and inner channels to reflect probable
gradients. Look for gales across the gulf and widespread small
craft advisories through the inner channels. Lastly, we lowered
temperatures during the wet period, more so across the north.

While the rain may seem like a lot and almost too persistent, it
will help make up some ground on the drought. Ensembles along with
wpc guided changes. Forecast confidence has increased through
Monday, but still is lacking later.

Hydrology A flood watch has been issued for the taiya river
near skagway. 1-3 inches of rainfall is expected to fall over the
taiya river basin during the frontal passage Friday. With this
amount of precip, significant rises on the taiya river are
expected by Saturday morning. A potential crest of 16.5 feet is
possible; at the level of 16.1 feet portions of the chilkoot trail
begins to inundate with water.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind from late tonight through Friday morning for akz024.

Strong wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
akz025.

Strong wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
akz023.

Strong wind Friday afternoon for akz020.

Flood watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
akz018.

Strong wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
akz017.

Marine... Storm warning for pkz051-052.

Gale warning for pkz013-031>036-041>043.

Small craft advisory for pkz011-012-021-022-053.

Cc jwa
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 47 mi56 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 53°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 47 mi72 min E 12 G 13 51°F 1006.1 hPa51°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 49 mi52 min 52°F 53°F1011 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAEL

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------SW10------SW12------W10--W7--Calm
1 day ago----------------------Calm--SW7--SW12--Calm--SW6--4--SW10
2 days ago--------------------------Calm--Calm--Calm----W10----W10

Tide / Current Tables for Composite Island, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Composite Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:51 AM AKDT     13.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:48 AM AKDT     4.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:23 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:49 PM AKDT     15.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:11 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:40 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.75.28.311.112.913.412.610.98.56.34.74.35.47.610.41314.715.214.312.49.76.74.2

Tide / Current Tables for Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Muir Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:52 AM AKDT     13.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:50 AM AKDT     4.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:21 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:50 PM AKDT     15.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:09 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:38 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.75.18.21112.913.412.710.98.66.34.84.35.37.510.312.914.715.214.412.49.76.84.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.