Sunrise 4:28 AM   Sunset 9:19 PM Moonrise 9:27 AM   Moonset 2:22 AM

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PKZ011 Glacier Bay- 249 Pm Akdt Tue May 14 2024
Tonight - Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.Wed - Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Wed night - Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Thu - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Thu night - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Fri - S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat - Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Sun - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 142256 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 256 PM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

SHORT TERM
Through the next 36 hours a longwave trough will begin to move southeast along the western seaboard, cutting off upper support to our surface low in the Gulf. As the surface pressure gradient weakens into Wednesday, light winds continue to be the main theme over the region, with rain showers in the north.
Expect widespread stratiform rain in the south to break up by late Wednesday as our current plume of moisture shears apart, transitioning to shallow non-thunderstorm convective showers.

Main challenge of the short term is diagnosing wind direction in the northern inner channels. Will we see north or south? Either solution holds light winds. For now, have continued the light northerly winds Thursday morning, with winds becoming south.
Expect some fog and low clouds across the Panhandle Thursday morning, perhaps some morning drizzle, but with respect to widespread heavy rain, there is no strong evidence in the ensembles to warrant concern.

For any folks going over White Pass expect to see some snow into Wednesday; however, our fantastic Alaska DOT RWIS cameras at MP14.9 continue to highlight the warm sub-surface temperatures helping to stave off any minor snow accumulations.

LONG TERM
/Thursday into the weekend/...For the mid range, aside from some patchy fog development that is possible Thursday morning the main story remains an outlook for drier conditions and thinning or breaks in cloud cover for Thursday and Friday. As of this forecast issuance, highest chance for clearing skies will likely be inland central panhandle. This is due to a blocking ridge that looks primed to set up over the southern gulf on Friday. With SE AK on the downstream side of the ridge, will be seeing some zonal onshore flow so light drizzly showers remain possible for outer coastal communities. Overall not seeing strong signal for swings in temperature with this setup, so can expect them to remain seasonable, with some warming by the end of the weekend. With this setup, also not expecting any significant winds for the inside waters and gulf waters with the lone exception being a coastal jet potentially developing Friday heading into Cross Sound depending on the placement of the ridge axis.

AVIATION

A weakening low within the Gulf of Alaska continues to provide persistent onshore-flow with a scattered showery regime draped over Southeast Alaska. Expect this trend to continue with MVFR category CIG and VIS flight conditions over most of the panhandle with periodic rises into low-end VFR category through the TAF period. Sustained daytime winds between 8-12kts, decreasing overnight to near calm and variable less than 6kts.

MARINE
Gulf and coastal waters: Derived wind passes from low earth orbit satellites indicate light southerly winds across the Gulf, with buoys 82,83, and 84 reporting 10 to 16 knots as of 2pm this afternoon. Expect west southwest swell to continue into Wednesday night, with significant heights less than 8ft and a period around 8 to 11 seconds.
Thursday a ridge builds in the Gulf with northwesterly winds developing along our coast bringing fresh seas. However, significant heights continue to be near 5 to 6 ft. Perhaps 7ft for any ebbing tides near ocean entrances, with the most concern for small vessels operating near the western boundaries of Cross Sound, Salisbury Sound, and west coast of Prince of Wales.

Inner channels: Through Thursday morning expect some rain and light winds.
Clearing skies Wednesday night will likely allow fog to form in isolated areas mainly in the central Panhandle. If guidance continues to highlight clear skies, expect some diminished visibilities early Thursday before clearing out Thursday late morning. Sustained winds increase out of the north in Clarence Strait Thursday reaching 12 to 18 knots near Dixon, a fine day for summer sailing.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

Composite Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:39 AM AKDT     6.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:22 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:36 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM AKDT     13.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:26 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:25 PM AKDT     1.82 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM AKDT     12.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:30 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Composite Island, Glacier Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Muir Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:41 AM AKDT     6.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:21 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:34 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:33 AM AKDT     13.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:24 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:27 PM AKDT     1.82 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:08 PM AKDT     12.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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