Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seldovia Village, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The southwest mainland lies between weather systems in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. A weak and decaying upper level low remains overhead with very little impact on current weather. From the Kuskokwim Valley through interior Bristol Bay, a nice spring evening is in store with temperatures in the 50s to upper 40s with light winds and fair weather cumulus clouds. A stark contrast exists for the Kuskokwim Delta where snow cover and clouds have kept temperatures lower. The opportunity for more low clouds and fog exists overnight for the Delta, especially the Kuskokwim River Valley.

A front from the Bering Sea moves ashore the mainland late Thursday evening, bringing snow and rain mainly to the Bristol Bay area and the Wood River Mountains. Lesser amounts are expected for the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley, little to no snow accumulation is expected. The front will keep temperatures lower on Friday, staying in the low to mid 40s. The responsible low pressure system will drift toward the area, keeping cooler, cloudier and more rain the forecast for the weekend.

MTL

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A frontal boundary is stretched from west to east across the Bering Sea, turning southward over the eastern Aleutians. The responsible system has peaked in intensity, and the front is also weakening and slowing. Expect gale force winds west of the Pribilofs tonight before diminishing. Along that front, snow will turn to rain as the front passes, however, along the Aleutians, temperatures will likely remain high enough to support rain. Gap winds won't be very strong across the Alaska Peninsula, though there will be some enhancement through channeled terrain.
Once the front passes on Thursday, much of the area will remain in a cloudy and rain/snow showery regime as the low pressure system decays and shifts eastward.

MTL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...

The long term continues to be characterized by upper level troughing over the Bering, leading to an active weather pattern for the Aleutians and southern mainland Alaska. An upper level shortwave will traverse northwards across Southwest Alaska as a closed upper low slides eastward towards the eastern Bering by Monday morning. A surface low lifting from the AKPen into the eastern Bering looks to bring a wave of precipitation across Southwest and the AKPen through Monday, likely beginning as rain for lower elevations before transitioning over to snow as precipitation from this system tapers off. This low sends its front across the Gulf and Southcentral bringing rain to Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf coast and snow to higher elevations through Tuesday morning as the front pushes inland. Precipitation associated with this system is expected to be predominantly light, though locally moderate rainfall is possible along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound.

By Monday morning, an upper level low lifting out of the North Pacific supports a deepening surface low south of the western and central Aleutians. This low is expected to continue to track eastward south of the Aleutians and AKPen through the remainder of the forecast period. Some light precipitation is possible for the Aleutians as the system skirts to the south of the island chain through the early part of next week, though even a slight shift in the track to the south may limit precipitation. As the low nears the Gulf, the focus for Tuesday into Wednesday shifts towards another round of potentially heavier precipitation for the AKPen, Kodiak Island, and northern Gulf coast. The greatest chance for heavy rain and snow at elevation will likely again be along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound given the southeasterly flow in the Gulf. Northwesterly flow and cold air advection on the back side of the low may enhance northwesterly gap winds through the eastern Aleutians and AKPen Tuesday into Wednesday.

-JH

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period; however, given the chance of scattered showers developing later this afternoon and evening there is a possibility that ceilings could briefly drop to MVFR if a shower moves over the terminal.
Light winds will become more southerly later this afternoon into the evening hours before becoming light and variable again by early Thursday morning.