Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Goodnews Bay, AK

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Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 9:55PM Saturday August 17, 2019 9:45 AM AKDT (17:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 7:29AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goodnews Bay, AK
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location: 59.32, -161.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 171433
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
633 am akdt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
Rain has ended in most areas, and will end today southeast of
delta junction and chicken. Total preciptiation in the past 48
hours has been over 1 inch in much of the area south of wonder
lake to livengood to circle, excluding the 40 mile basin which was
drier. Portions of the chena, salcha and goodpaster basins have
had 1.5-2.0 inches of rain. The alaska range has had between 2 and
4 inches between the gerstle river and wonder lake with the
eielson visitor center having 4 inches in 24hrs.

Small streams across all of the interior from the chatanika river
south will remain high today but should be falling, while rivers
are rising rapidly today as the streams empty into the rivers.

Flooding along creeks draining of the alaska range should end
today as the water flows out, but rivers draining the alaska range
could still rise and flood through sun, especially in the denali
area. Flooding will occur today on the little chena, chena
upstream of the moose creek dam, the salcha, and the goodpaster
rivers, and will flooding will continue into mon, the and those
rivers all have flood warnings..

Minor flooding is now occuring along the nenana river from denali
park to nenana, and could worsen at the city of nenana through
mon.

Aloft...

the long wave pattern consists of a high amplitude ridge
stretching from the pacific over the eastern bering into NE russia
and the chukchi sea, with a deep trough over the NW pacific and
western bering and and another deep trough stretching from the
pole south over western canada. This pattern will persis throguh
sun, then retorgrade next week. This will bring most of northern
alaka under a drier pattern by tonight that continues into early
next week. This will also bring cooler air into northern alaska
today that will remain cool into next week.

Several short waves will move from the high arctic south along the
alcan border over the next several days, and eventually lead tot
he retorgrading ridge trough pattern next week. These short
waves will bring a isolated to scattered rain showers to the alcan
border area, and scattered to numerouds rain and snow showers to
the brooks range east of the dalton hwy, with snow mostly above
2000 ft.

Surface...

a cold front that lies from chicken to denali to norton sound
will move south of the alaska range by noon today. Rain along and
south of the front will taper off to isolated showers north of the
front. Northwest winds 15 mph gusting to 30 mph with the front
will taper off north of the front today. Gusts to 40 mph will
continue this morning along the alaska hwy from dot lake to the
alcan border.

Significant drying and cooling will occur following the cold
front today across the interior and west coast, high temps in the
50s and lower 60s, and lows from the lower 30s to lower 40s.

Expect N winds 15g30 mph this morning along the brooks range and
alaska range with winds decreasing in the afternoon.

High pressure will build over the interior today through sun. This
will cause clearing skies and decreasing winds this afternoon and
tonight. With the clear skeis and cooler air, could see frost
tonight and Sun night in some low lying areas that are prone to
frost.

A low pressure trough over the southern beaufort sea will move
inland today. A second low pressure trough in the high arctic will
move over the beaufort sea Sat afternoon, and then move inland on
sun. Thes troughs will bring NW winds 15-30kt over zones 204
through sun. They will alos have rain and snow showers.

A weather front in the northern bering sea will move over the
chukotsk peninsula of russia Sat night. A low developing in
northeast russia on Sun will move to the yukon delta on mon, then
continue se. This will bring a chance of rain to zones 213 sun
night, and to the yk delta mon.

Discussion
Models initialize well aloft and show similar solutions through
4pm sat. After that time, the NAM and GFS keep a deeper low aloft
over the yukon territory and alcan border than the gfs. Favor the
nam and ecmf solutions after 4pm sat. For precipitation, we will
blend the precipitation solutions from the NAM and gfs, which
will result in rain continuing this morning in the extreme se
interior, and then keep isolated to scattered showers near the
alcan border Sat pm through mon, with scattered to numerous snow
showers over the north slope east of the dalton hwy.

At the surface at 06z, all models verify about 3 mb too weak on
the surface low just NE of fairbanks, but since this feature is
moving rapidly SE tonight, do not expect this to impact forecast
other than slightly elevated winds in the SE interior this am.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Fire weather
Significant drying and cooling for the weekend, with rh as low as
30-40% and high temps in the 50s and lower 60s. Expect N winds
15g25 mph this morning along the brooks range and alaska range.

Hydrology
Heavy rain is now ending. Total preciptiation in the past 48
hours has been over 1 inch in much of the area south of wonder
lake to livengood to circle, excluding the 40 mile basin which was
drier. Portions of the chena, salcha and goodpaster basins have
had 1.5-2.0 inches of rain. The alaska range has had between 2 and
4 inches between the gerstle river and wonder lake with the
eielson visitor center having 4 inches in 24hrs. Small streams
across all of the interior from the chatanika river south will
remain high today but should be falling, while rivers are rising
rapidly today as the streams empty into the rivers. Flooding along
creeks draining of the alaska range should end today as the water
flows out, but rivers draining the alaska range could still rise
and flood through sun, especially in the denali area. Flooding
will occur today on the little chena, chena upstream of the moose
creek dam, the salcha, and the goodpaster rivers, and will
continue into Mon and those rivers all have flood warnings..

Minor flooding is now occuring along the nenana river from denali
park to nenana, and could worsen at the city of nenana through
mon. Flooding could worsen at the city of nenana, and we will
evaluate upgrading the flood advisory to a flood warning for the
city of nenana after we get he new river forecast for the tanana
river today.

We will also look into flood advisory for tanana river at
fairbanks after we get the new river forecast for the tanana
river today. The tanana river at fairbanks is expected to rise
and crest above minor flood stage on Sun night. The tanana river
at manley could have similar issues as well.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory for akz224.

Flood warning for akz222-akz223-akz224
flood advisory for akz221-akz223
flood watch for akz226.

Small craft advisory for pkz245.

Jb aug 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAEH

Wind History from AEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6
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CalmCalmS19Calm--------CalmS17
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Tide / Current Tables for Carter Spit, Alaska
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Carter Spit
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Sat -- 12:12 AM AKDT     9.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:09 AM AKDT     1.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:29 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:54 AM AKDT     6.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:53 PM AKDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:32 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:36 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.18.87.764.12.41.7234.35.66.56.86.45.33.92.41.20.71.32.74.46.27.7

Tide / Current Tables for Goodnews Bay entrance, Alaska
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Goodnews Bay entrance
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Sat -- 05:36 AM AKDT     1.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:29 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:34 AM AKDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:20 PM AKDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:30 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:35 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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76.65.54.12.61.61.522.93.84.75.25.24.73.72.51.40.70.81.52.74.15.36.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.