Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Goodnews Bay, AK

KEY MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Mostly clear skies and light winds will continue through this afternoon across the Interior with lows in the 40s/50s (30s/40s)
farther east and highs in the 60s to low 70s.

- A cold front tracks southeast across the Interior later today into Monday. A few afternoon thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front with scattered showers, wind gusts to around 20 to 30 mph, and cooler temperatures expected heading into Monday. Winds will peak this afternoon and evening ahead of the front.

- Rainfall totals late Sunday into Monday are expected to remain light overall, with amounts greater than 0.10" most likely near the Brooks Range and Alaska Range. A few afternoon thunderstorms can't be ruled out, especially across the southeast Interior on Monday.

- A brief warming and drying period sets in for Tuesday and Wednesday as highs return to the 60s to low 70s, ahead of another cold front moving southeast across the Interior late Wednesday into Thursday with isolated rain showers and breezy winds.

- Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier conditions are expected to return heading into next weekend, as highs return to the 70s to low 80s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Temperatures will trend cooler today as a cold front tracks southeast from the Chukchi Sea across western Alaska through tonight with scattered rain showers and breezy northwest winds.

- Rainfall totals tonight through tonight are expected to remain light overall, with highest totals along the northwest Arctic Coast and and Kobuk Valley where around 0.10-0.30" of rain is expected.

- Warmer and drier conditions return for Monday and Tuesday ahead of another cold front moving into northwest Alaska Wednesday into Thursday with scattered rain showers and breezy winds.

- Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier conditions are expected to return heading into next weekend, with isolated showers along the coast. High will return to 60s/70s for most, with locally cooler conditions along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Temperatures will trend much cooler today as a cold front tracks southeast from the Chukchi Sea across far northern Alaska through tonight and Monday morning, with scattered to widespread rain/snow showers and breezy northwest winds.

- This cold front brings a 12-18 hour period of steady precipitation as it shifts east tonight into Sunday. This begins as rain then transitions to snow as much colder air builds behind the front.

- The heaviest snow accumulations will be Sunday morning through Sunday evening across northern slopes of the Brooks Range (>1000 ft elevation). Around 3-6" of snow is expected for Atigun Pass north to Toolik and Ice Cut Hill, with around 1-3" for Anaktuvuk Pass. Any snow totals farther north will be around a T-1".

- Rainfall/snow water equivalent totals through Monday will be around 0.20-0.40" regionwide, locally higher up to 0.75" across higher elevations of the southern Arctic Plains and in the Brooks Range.

- Dry conditions return from west to east Sunday into Monday as initially cooler temperatures see a warming trend through midweek. A secondary cold front remains on track to move in Wednesday into Thursday with scattered showers and gusty winds.

- Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier conditions are expected to return heading into next weekend, with isolated showers along the coast. High will return to 60s/70s for most, with locally cooler conditions along the coast.

SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION
Today through Tuesday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows an arctic trough and associated frontal boundary tracking southeast from the Chukchi Sea across northwest Alaska and western North Slope/Brooks Range.
Precipitation types stay mostly rain through this morning when the front should be positioned roughly between Kaktovik and Wales. In addition to precipitation chances, this front results in a sharp wind shift farther north from gusty south-southwest winds approaching 45 mph yesterday evening to becoming northwesterly up to 35-40 mph behind the front.

Upslope flow north of the Brooks Range works to slow the fronts progression and cool the thermal profile below freezing resulting in a transition to snow through the morning hours on Sunday. For the Dalton Highway, this means a rain to snow transition around 20Z/12PM local time. Potentially heavy snowfall rates persist for about 6 hours after the transition allowing for up to 6" of heavy, wet snow, with lighter snow filing in behind the heaviest rates.
The primary factors introducing uncertainty is accumulating snow are the warm and sunny conditions yesterday raising ground temperatures, timing of the rain/snow transition, and ultimately how much of the QPF falls as rain vs snow. Even though there is uncertainty, the heavy snowfall rates and surface temperatures falling below freezing will overwhelm warm and wet antecedent conditions and result in hazardous travel conditions along the Dalton Highway north of Atigun Pass. Deep moisture shifts east Sunday evening with model soundings showing a loss of saturation in the DGZ. Models continue to show light QPF through Sunday night within an upslope flow regime that is most likely to fall as snow with pockets of freezing drizzle that could result in a light glaze on top of the fresh snowfall.

Farther south, the front brings scattered rain showers across the northwest interior on Sunday with most places south of the Kobuk Valley receiving less than 0.10" of rain. There's also potential for a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon along and ahead of the front across the northeast interior. The thunderstorm potential continues Monday afternoon as the frontal boundary slows across the southeast interior. With the front reaching Fairbanks Monday morning, the storm chances should stay east of town on Monday.
Then there's a general drying trend Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the next Arctic trough that digs south toward the northwest Arctic coast Tuesday afternoon. Early signals point to a warmer system that should limit the winter weather threat, with the bulk of precipitation expected across the North Slope. In between fronts, conditions will trend warmer and drier overall.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 1 and 2...

A cold front is expected to move southeast from the Chukchi Sea today. Gusty northwesterly winds are expected across the Kotzebue Sound and Chukchi Sea Coast Sunday following the front. Gusts on Sunday are expected to be between 25 and 35 mph. Water levels are expected to rise to 0.5 to 1.5 feet above the normal high tide line late Sunday, peaking overnight and diminishing rapidly Monday morning. Residents along the coast should remain mindful of minor water level rises and take action to protect property on the beach.

LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION
Wednesday through next Sunday.
At the start of the extended forecast period Wednesday, the overall pattern is dominated by 3 main features: a very large upper level low near the North Pole, a building ridge in the Bering Sea, and a low in the Gulf of Alaska connected by a trough to the North Pole low. A front moving around the North Pole low approaches the Western Arctic Coast Wednesday into Thursday. The ridge in the Bering simultaneously attempts to push east into the Western Interior. The ridge is expected to keep the front slightly farther north, but a period of gusty winds and rain is expected to sweep across the Northern Interior and North Slope Wednesday into Thursday.

After the front passes there is a larger divergence in the potential forecast. A stronger frontal passage or one that stalls would restrict the ridge in its push into the Interior, keeping conditions relatively cooler and more showery than they otherwise would be. A weaker front or stronger ridge would enhance warming and drying on the back end of the front leading to a more seasonable end of the week. Currently the warmer and drier solution looks more likely. However, yet another low rotates around the North Pole low and towards the West Coast Friday into the weekend. Developing higher pressure over the Interior may keep it in the Bering Sea through the weekend. The forecast for this feature is currently too uncertain to accurately suggest any potential impacts.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

FIRE WEATHER
By Sunday morning, an arctic trough and the associated cold front will span roughly from the Seward Peninsula to the Central Brooks Range to Kaktovik, bringing cooler air, in behind it.
Temperatures in the Central and Eastern Interior will have a chance to reach around 70F before the cold front arrives later in the afternoon. Winds will become gusty along with the front, westerly ahead of the front in the Interior, but turning more northerly behind the front closer to the West Coast as well as through the Alaska Range. Winds will gust up to 25 mph for much of northern Alaska on Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts associated with this front should be light, generally less than a tenth except on the North Slope and in the Brooks Range where between a quarter and half an inch is expected. There is potential for thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front in the Eastern Interior, but they will be isolated.

For the start of next week, a cool air mass will continue to linger over Northern Alaska. Monday will be the coldest day for most areas of the Interior. Max temperatures will likely be 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than normal, peaking in the low 60s or 50s. Conditions should remain moderate, but follow a gradual warming trend through the rest of week, until a ridge provides the chance for temperatures above 70 again for the latter half of the week.

Another weaker trough looks like it will come in from the northwest again on Wednesday. Although the exact impacts from this trough are slightly uncertain, it looks like the Interior will receive another round of light precipitation, with a less significant drop in temperatures.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ855.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.