Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia city, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak68 pafc 191159 afdafc southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion national weather service anchorage ak 359 am akdt Fri jul 19 2019 Analysis and upper levels Weak flow in the mid and upper levels continues across much of southcentral alaska as the region sits between two upper-level lows, one over the gulf and a second over northern alaska, and two building upper-level ridges, one over the yukon and a second moving over southwest alaska from the bering. A light southerly wind remains present across the susitna valley where daytime heating has resulted in a weak thermal trough. Stronger offshore winds also continue from the eastern kenai peninsula south to kodiak island due to a tight pressure gradient between the building high over the southwest and a retrograding surface low moving west toward the barren islands. With little upper-level support, shower and thunderstorm activity yesterday was more isolated and confined to the higher terrain, with much of the convection ending quickly after sunset. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will fire up again later today, given the persistent warm, unstable conditions across southcentral. Much like yesterday, areas of smoke will remain a concern across the northern kenai peninsula, the anchorage bowl, the lower mat- su valleys, as well as portions of the copper river basin as a southerly flow draws smoke northward. For the southwest, smoke will remain a concern from iliamna to king salmon as smoke from fires in the kuskokwim valley are pulled southeast around the ridge of high pressure. Widespread low clouds and patchy fog remain over much of the southwest, a result of a stable airmass due to the building ridge and steady onshore flow. Gusty northwesterly gap winds up to 35 kts continue for areas south of the akpen due to the tight pressure gradient between the ridge and the low in the gulf. Model discussion Models remain in fairly good agreement through the short term. The extent of smoke and cloud coverage will remain the most challenging part of the forecast as stability generally increases and as the weak southerly flow aloft transitions to a northerly flow moving through the weekend. Overall, forecast confidence remains above average. Aviation Panc... GeneralVFR conditions and light winds will persist. Smoke continues to be a concern and a forecast challenge. A light southerly flow early this morning may carry smoke from the swan lake fire north over the terminal reducing visibility at times. Smoke may again advect over anchorage this evening as the up-inlet flow increases and a stronger southerly wind moves across the airport complex. However, with daytime heating and a more unstable atmosphere, this round of smoke may be elevated and not impact visibility. Clouds will also be on the increase later this evening with the potential for the ceiling to drop to 5,000ft after 6z. Fire weather Southcentral... Moisture advecting in from the east around a low over the gulf of alaska will increase clouds, thus increasing humidity and lowering high temperatures. The atmosphere will continue to become more stable, but isolated thunderstorms are possible today for inland areas mainly over higher terrain. A few thunderstorms are possible on Saturday in the copper river basin. Minimal fire weather concerns southwest, for the short term, given the upper ridge sitting over the bering with persistent

onshore flow. A high over the alcan border will initiate a warming, drying trend Monday or Tuesday... The forecast will need to be monitored for convection potential. Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2) Moisture wrapping around the low in the gulf will push into the area from the east. This will bring increased cloud cover, along with cooler daytime temperatures and some isolated to scattered showers today and Saturday. The atmosphere is slowly becoming more stable but some diurnal thunderstorms are possible today for inland areas. These will mainly be confined to higher terrain. On Saturday it becomes even more stable and there is only a slight chance of thunderstorms in the copper river basin. Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2) Southwest alaska remains downstream of an upper ridge over the bering sea, thus expect onshore flow to bring stable, cloudy conditions over the next few days. Fog potential will continue along the kuskokwim delta coast, likely making it inland to bethel Saturday morning. The smoke forecast will be a challenge... Plenty of fires continue to burn in and around the kuskokwim valley but with the onshore push conditions should generally improve. That said, smoke filtered south Thursday from the middle kuskokwim valley towards lake clark and iliamna and with similar winds forecast today expect a similar smoke situation. Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2) Northerly gap winds south of the akpen stretching from dutch harbor to kodiak island continue to be the main concern for the forecast. Sustained small craft advisory level winds will continue through early Saturday morning with possible gale force gusts. Otherwise, high pressure over the bering sea will continue mostly benign conditions over the next few days. Expect widespread fog and low stratus and probably some drizzle squeezing out as well. Marine (days 3 through 5; Saturday evening through Monday) Sub gales are expected to persist through Monday over the bering and gulf. Seas may increase to at or near 10 feet in the western bering by Sunday afternoon ahead of a front but will remain lower elsewhere. No significant systems appear likely for the foreseeable future. Long term forecast (days 4 through 7; Sunday through Wednesday) Long range models are similar to yesterday, in general showing an upper level trough over siberia, a ridge over the mainland and a pair of low pressures off the bc coast and tracking south of the aleutians, respectively. The main challenge involves how these systems interact. The early part of next week does not indicate a particularly wet pattern for southcentral, though afternoon convection may be possible over the mountains. Confidence remains low mid-week and beyond. The GFS remains a slight outlier with both a much stronger siberian trough and upper level gulf low where as the european and ensembles are not as aggressive. The gfs solution would generally bring colder temperatures and more precipitation while the latter solutions would bring drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures. Afc watches warnings advisories Public... None. Marine... None. Fire weather... None. Synopsis and model discussion... Tm southcentral alaska... Bl southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mm marine long term... Ap

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK	1 mi	55 min			52°F		1014.7 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175	12 mi	43 min			53°F	3 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK	17 mi	43 min	SSW 9.9 G 16	59°F			1015.8 hPa (+0.8)	51°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK	19 mi	73 min	WNW 8	61°F			1014 hPa	54°F
HMSA2	19 mi	31 min	W 8 G 13	60°F			1014.8 hPa	51°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK	39 mi	43 min	N 8 G 9.9	60°F			1016.6 hPa (+1.4)	52°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK	1 mi	50 min	S 10 G 16	10.00 mi	Fair	72°F	55°F	55%	1015 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK	18 mi	50 min	W 10	7.00 mi	Haze Smoke	67°F	54°F	63%	1015.5 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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