Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 8:38PM Saturday March 28, 2020 3:54 AM AKDT (11:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:20AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 329 Am Akdt Sat Mar 28 2020
Today..E wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
Sun..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
Sun night..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia city, AK
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location: 59.45, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 280109 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 509 PM AKDT Fri Mar 27 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A strong blocking ridge is centered over the north central Pacific, with a trough over mainland Alaska. The jetstream extends northward up the west side of the ridge to the Aleutians, then turns eastward, with zonal flow from the eastern Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska. A gale force low over the northern Bering Sea is tracking eastward toward the west coast of Alaska. The original frontal system from this low has weakened considerably as it pushed inland across Southwest Alaska and into the western Gulf today. What remains is some areas of light snow, particularly along the west side of the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges, with some light snow on the Kenai Peninsula and rain down over the Gulf. Another round of snow is making its way onshore along the Kuskokwim Delta coast as the low center approaches. This is accompanied by strong and gusty winds due to cold air advection and instability, leading to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

Cold air advection extends south of the low center (over the northern Bering) eastward across the Alaska Peninsula into the Southwest Gulf. This is producing strong gap winds (up to storm force) along the Alaska Peninsula. Meanwhile, due to the combination of Arctic air in the Copper River Basin and tight pressure gradients from there down to the Gulf, gap winds are also affecting portions of the Matanuska Valley, the Valdez area, and the Copper River Delta.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in better (but not perfect) agreement with the many short-waves transiting the eastern Bering Sea, southern Alaska, and Gulf of Alaska tonight through Saturday. Therefore, confidence in the snow accumulation forecast for both Southwest and Southcentral has increased.

AVIATION. PANC . A short-wave crossing the Alaska Range this evening will clip Anchorage, with light snow likely at the terminal this evening through the overnight hours. With weak forcing and low level westerly flow (favoring snow along the mountains), expect ceiling/vis to bottom out at MVFR. There is also a chance that most of the snow falls east of the terminal and VFR conditions prevail for much of this time. No matter what, offshore flow will develop during the day Saturday causing ceilings to lift. The passage of an upper short-wave tomorrow afternoon combined with cold air advection will lead to increasing northerlies, likely becoming gusty after 00Z Saturday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Elevated winds along the northern Gulf coast continue to gradually weaken as a surface low drifts toward the southeastern Gulf. A weak frontal boundary associated with an upper level trough has moved in over Southcentral, producing mostly virga this afternoon. Snow becomes increasingly likely this evening, with accumulations on the order of trace to 2 inches possible overnight into Saturday morning. The upper level low then deepens and moves southward over the Gulf, leading to another outflow wind event Saturday night. As the low pulls away, cold Arctic air will be drawn down from the north, lowering temperatures and allowing northerly winds to pick up Saturday night. Areas including Seward, Palmer, Valdez, and the Copper River Basin will once again see elevated gusty winds Saturday into Sunday. Skies are expected to clear for the rest of the weekend and into early next week as colder northerly flow persists.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday) .

A low moving into Southwest Alaska from the northern Bering is causing snow to redevelop across the Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon. The low will track southeastward across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay tonight into Saturday morning. 1 to 3 inches of snow are possible overnight tonight across many areas of Southwest Alaska. Behind the low, strong north to northwesterly winds following the low will cause snow to blow around, which may temporarily reduce visibilities to one half mile at times. The Winter Weather Advisory for the Kuskokwim Delta therefore remains in effect until 7am Saturday morning. During the day Saturday, the snow will largely end from northwest to southeast, though upslope snow showers over the Kuskokwim Mountains and Alaska Range will persist throughout the day. The primary effect of the weather on Saturday will be colder air building southward across Southwest Alaska and gradually clearing skies. Due to the strong late March sunshine, it will likely take until Saturday night for the really cold temperatures to be felt.

Polar high pressure builds into Southwest Alaska on Sunday and Monday. This will lead to temperatures falling to between zero and 10 above for low temperatures in most locations, while highs during the day rise to near 30, once again due to the strong late March sunshine, which should be abundant both days under sunny skies.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday) .

A low over the northern Bering will move into Southwest Alaska tonight, as high pressure builds over the western Bering. A front moves into the central and western Bering Saturday afternoon, which will dissipate on Sunday. A second stronger front moves east into the western Aleutians and western Bering late Saturday night. It will weaken as it moves to the Pribilofs and eastern Aleutians on Monday. Most models suggest a weak low develops along that front near Cold Bay Monday afternoon, but there are some discrepancies on that.

The strong winds and cold temperatures behind the low tonight and Saturday will produce areas of heavy freezing spray, which will spread north to south across the eastern Bering through the Alaska Peninsula. This could become impactful to shipping in these areas, particularly south of the Alaska Peninsula, where cold air and strong winds together have been absent for quite a while.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday).

Bering Sea/Aleutians . A storm system will track across the western to central Bering on Sunday. There is uncertainty in the exact track of the low center, but high confidence in widespread small craft winds with gales likely near the low center. The eastern Bering will likely see minimal impacts from this, as most model solutions track the low to the northern Bering, or even into Russia. Forecast confidence for Monday/Tuesday drops significantly, although it doesn't look like any major storm systems will affect the region.

Gulf of Alaska . There is a high confidence in gap winds along the Gulf coast on Sunday. These will diminish by Monday and the overall weather pattern looks quiet.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Friday).

Guidance is consistent with the overall synoptic pattern on Sunday with an upper level trough over the Alaska mainland while upper level ridging slowly moves eastward across the central and eastern Bering. This will result in cold temperatures across the mainland. A high confidence exists with a warming trend in temperatures across the Alaska mainland in particular Southwest Alaska Sunday through Tuesday. However, there is low confidence with respect to the magnitude of the expected warm up as there are discrepancies between guidance with how fast this ridge is moving. The GFS appears to have the fastest bias as the GEM and ECMWF show the upper trough extending into the Ahklun Mountains while the GFS has the trough only extending to the eastern AKPEN. More significant differences between guidance arise on Wednesday with respect to the amplitude of the upper ridge over Southcentral Alaska. This means that there is a low confidence in the temperature forecast as the placement of this upper ridge affects the placement of the surface ridging and thus causing major discrepancies in the temperature forecast. One area of confidence for this period is the weather is expected to remain benign across Southcentral during this time as high pressure will be over the area. Significant discrepancies continue on Thursday and Friday and thus the forecast confidence remains very low for this period at this time.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory 155 MARINE . Gale 127 132 138 150 185 Heavy Freezing Spray 119 140 160 180 181 185 414 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . KO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . JW MARINE/LONG TERM . SB/ED


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 1 mi54 min 40°F1004.5 hPa (-1.2)
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 17 mi24 min W 16 G 18 37°F 1004.7 hPa32°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 19 mi84 min ESE 1 32°F 1004 hPa24°F
HMSA2 19 mi22 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 32°F 1001.9 hPa25°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 39 mi24 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 37°F 1004.8 hPa29°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK1 mi61 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy31°F26°F82%1004.9 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK18 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair27°F19°F75%1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmSW4SW5S3E5E5E3SE4W7W10W8W8CalmNW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE5NE4CalmSW3SW6SW6SW7W4W10SW9SW7SW6CalmN5Calm3E3NE4
2 days agoSW3SW7Calm63SW4W8W9W6SW7SW8SW7SW13W10
G17
W9W5SW9SW8SW6NE3CalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.