Monday, January27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:29AMSunset 4:55PM Monday January 27, 2020 6:41 AM AKST (15:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:00AMMoonset 7:38PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 405 Am Akst Mon Jan 27 2020
.heavy freezing spray warning today...
Today..N wind 20 kt...strongest near the inlet. Seas 3 ft...highest near the inlet. Heavy freezing spray.
Tonight..N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming ne 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
Tue night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia city, AK
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location: 59.45, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 271400 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 AM AKST Mon Jan 27 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

On satellite imagery there is a low spinning southwest of Shemya with an occluded front wrapped into it. There is a 180+ knot jet core south of the western Aleutians. Northerly flow continues over southwest Alaska which is the result of low pressure in the Gulf Of Alaska and high pressure over the Bering Sea. This pattern has been persistent and has been ushering arctic air into the region resulting in dangerously low wind chills over southwest Alaska. The radar at Middleton Island has detected an uptick in shower activity compared to 24 hrs ago associated with a low south of Chenega.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

For initialization purposes compared the returns at 6z on Middleton island radar to the projected precipitation with the GFS/NAM/ECMWF and Canadian. The NAM did well pinging into the precipitation near Kayak Island while the GFS had the correct orientation of the precipitation band associated with a weak inverted trough south of Chenega and Seward. Even the high resolution of the ECMWF was simply too broad brushed with the precipitation over the Gulf Of Alaska. At 6z using the cyclonic curvature as a proxy for the location of the low, the NAM and GFS did fairly similar with the placement of the surface low south of Montague Island. This was seconded by the 6z ASCAT (advanced scatterometer) pass.

Models are in decent agreement with the longwave pattern keeping the high amplitude trough over most of the mainland/Gulf and placing the block over the Central Bering. However, they struggle with the placement of the surface lows even in the near term and the the divergence amplifies handedly Tuesday as a low moves from the north Pacific and into the Gulf Of Alaska.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions are expected at the onset of this TAF package. There is a low south of Seward and moisture is getting wrapped around this feature. The expectations is that cigs will develop over the aerodrome later today but at this point the cigs should remain above 5,000 feet until 6z on the 28th. The winds are expected to remain relatively light.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2; Sunday night and Tuesday) .

An upper level trough situated across mainland Alaska will keep a strong north to south pressure gradient and gusty outflow winds across the region. Coastal locations, including Seward, Whittier, and Valdez will continue to see these strong winds with the continuation of polar lows developing over the Gulf of Alaska today. The Middleton Island radar this morning has already indicated snow showers moving into the north Gulf coast associated with the the first polar low, which will move inland and lead to blizzard conditions throughout the day for Thompson Pass. Areas near Seward and Whittier will also see blowing snow and reduced visibilities are expected through this evening with a winter weather advisory in effect.

Winds begin to diminish across Southcentral late Monday as the upper level trough begins to shift westward as a North Pacific low begins to lift northward. By Tuesday morning, this strong storm- force low will make its way into the southern Gulf. Expect a strong pressure gradient to redevelop over Southcentral Alaska, which will lead to another round of gusty outflow winds through Wednesday. Kodiak City and areas along the north Gulf coast will be areas to keep an eye on with this next system as it could lead to advisory level snowfall amounts.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday Night) .

The primary weather story continues to be the cold temperatures and gusty winds causing very low wind chills across Southwest Alaska. Nearly the entire area is under mainly clear skies, but some ocean-effect snow is impacting the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak Island near Hooper Bay and Mekoryuk. Low stratus clouds are moving over the area east of King Salmon as well. The mainly clear skies and gusty north winds continue most everywhere else. The Wind Chill Advisories remain in effect through noon on Wednesday. The coldest wind chills will be late tonight into Tuesday morning. A strong low moving into the Gulf late Tuesday night into Wednesday will increase the winds, but will also bring some cloud cover which will modestly increase temperatures. Any precipitation will be limited to areas right along the Aleutian and Alaska Ranges.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday Night) .

A very stagnant weather pattern will persist through Wednesday night across the Bering. Strong cold air advection on northeast winds will keep ocean-effect snow bands continuing across the eastern half of the Bering, and along the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians. High pressure over the central Bering this morning will shift westward by Tuesday morning into the western Bering. This will allow the cold air to move further west across the basin. Otherwise, the coldest air will continue to stream across the eastern Bering through Wednesday night, keeping the temperatures well below average, with ocean-effect snow causing briefly reduced visibilities, and large areas of heavy freezing spray across the eastern Bering.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5). Gulf of Alaska: The leading edge of a storm force low enters the southern Gulf Tuesday morning, bringing ample precipitation and easterly winds across the Gulf Tuesday evening. While there is high confidence in the strength of the low, there is lower confidence on exactly where the low center tracks. We are currently expecting the low center to track east of Kodiak Island Wednesday morning, bringing a swath of easterly storm force winds to the waters along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday. Westerly gales will fill in across the Gulf on the backside of the low as it lifts northward. It is possible that these westerly gales could reach storm force levels Wednesday night. There is high confidence that this low pressure remains nearly stationary, becoming reinforced with additional energy in the upper levels for the end of the week. Waves in excess of 20 feet are expected with this low.

Bering Sea and Aleutians: Gusty northerly flow will persist over the eastern Bering waters midweek. Gales will become more widespread across the Bering as a low in the Gulf strengthens and lifts northward. Enhanced winds through the usual gaps and passes along the Alaska Peninsula will last through Thursday. Heavy freezing spray is expected across much of the eastern Bering waters, and the Pacific side of the eastern Aleutians.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7). A storm force low in the Gulf of Alaska will slowly lift northward and inland over Southcentral Wednesday night. The northern Gulf coast will likely see ample precipitation through Thursday. Model solutions continue to key in on reinforcing features in the upper levels, leading to the possibility of prolonged precipitation over the northern Gulf coast through the end of the week as this system is revived by an upper level wave Thursday into Friday. The remnants of this low look to finally exit the Gulf to the east by the weekend, as an upper level ridge approaches from the west. Meanwhile over the Bering, cold northerly flow is expected to continue through the end of the week. By the weekend another low approaches the western Aleutians, bringing unsettled conditions for the beginning of February.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Wind Chill Advisory 155 161. Blizzard Warning 131 (T-Pass) Blowing Snow Advisory 125. MARINE. Gale 411 413 414 150 155 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 119 120 121 127 128 130 132 131 138 139. Heavy Freezing Spray 121 127 129 130 138 139 141 414 150 155 165 171 179 185.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . JW MARINE/LONG TERM . KO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 1 mi60 min 37°F989.7 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 17 mi42 min N 25 G 31 13°F 989.3 hPa (+0.0)7°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 19 mi72 min E 14 8°F 989 hPa-1°F
HMSA2 19 mi30 min ENE 8 G 14 7°F 987.5 hPa-1°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 39 mi42 min WNW 21 G 42 13°F 986.3 hPa (-0.7)10°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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G23
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G23

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK1 mi49 minN 810.00 miOvercast10°F1°F67%990 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK18 mi49 minNE 510.00 miOvercast6°F-2°F66%990.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE5N4CalmNE5N5NE5NE5NE5NE5NE4E8CalmCalmN5N4N6NE4N3CalmNE6NE7N4NE5
1 day agoNW4NE5NE4NE6NE7NE5NE9NE7E4NE16
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NE10NE6NE7CalmN3N4N4NE5NE6N5N3CalmNE5NE6
2 days agoNW3CalmNW3CalmCalmN3CalmNE7N13
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NE8CalmCalmNE8CalmCalm3N6N4N6CalmCalmNE5NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.