Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 9:52AMSunset 3:49PM Friday December 6, 2019 4:27 AM AKST (13:27 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 1:32AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 312 Am Akst Fri Dec 6 2019
Today..NE wind 10 kt except 20 kt near cook inlet. Seas 2 ft except 5 ft near cook inlet.
Tonight..E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Sat..E wind 15 kt becoming se 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Sat night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon through Tue..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia city, AK
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location: 59.45, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 061259 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 359 AM AKST Fri Dec 6 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An upper level ridge over the eastern Bering is slowly becoming more amplified and moving eastward over Southcentral. A strong upper level low centered northwest of Shemya is producing gale force winds over the central Bering as its associated front approaches the southwest coast. Scattered snow showers continue to linger over both the Kuskokwim Delta coast and inland Bristol Bay area. Meanwhile, a weak trough at the surface has generated some light snow showers over the Cook Inlet region this morning ahead of a larger front approaching from the west.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models have come into slightly better agreement regarding key features in the upper levels, however they still struggle to resolve the positions and tracks of several surface lows moving over the southern half of the state this weekend. Forecast confidence remains below average beyond 48 hours as the models still differ greatly.

AVIATION. PANC . Low stratus and fog continue to linger over the area. Light snow showers will continue through the early morning, leading to MVFR conditions before improving by midday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). The weak weather system over the area this morning will dissipate this afternoon as a weak and transient ridge builds over the area. Strong southerly flow aloft will push into Southcentral beginning tonight. This will bring a stronger weather system, and also a considerable warming trend. This makes forecasting precipitation type a bit more challenging, as the warmer air clashes with the cold air over the region. Snow should change quickly to rain late tonight along coastal eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince William Sound as a strong southerly surface wind develops. For inland locations the transition will take a little longer, with rain mixing in over the western Kenai fairly early Saturday morning, then work its way up the Inlet to the Anchorage area by late morning and into the Matanuska Valley in the afternoon. Farther north, the colder air should remain in place probably through Saturday night. Winds will also increase for some areas, with strong winds through Turnagain Arm and possibly on the Upper Hillside of Anchorage this afternoon through Saturday afternoon. For the lower elevations of Anchorage, strong winds are not expected.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). A front over the eastern Bering is on its way to southwest Alaska. It will reach the coast this morning and initially bring snow to the area. Stronger winds will also accompany the snow with the Kuskokwim Delta seeing enough snow and wind for blowing snow conditions. The front is pulling up warm air from the North Pacific that will begin to transition the snow over to rain this afternoon. The Kuskokwim Delta will hold on to cold air at the surface with northeast winds that will bring a potential for light freezing rain in the evening before switching to rain. Tonight into Saturday, another low will approach bringing back some cold air and transitioning precipitation back to snow. Snow will then diminish through the day Saturday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2). A low over the western Bering has its front extending through the northern Bering and then south through the eastern Aleutians. The front is bringing rain to the islands. However, the parent low is advecting cold air back over the area behind the front. Another low will approach the Alaska Peninsula from the North Pacific this afternoon bringing another round of rain to the area. A generally unstable pattern will set up on Saturday with several small lows moving through a broader area of low pressure over the Bering. The result will be snow showers over the western Bering/Aleutians with rain showers over the eastern Bering/Aleutians.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

The biggest features of concern in this period will be a strong decaying low over the northern Bering and a developing system over the Gulf of AK. First, in the northern Bering, there is high confidence in a strong system that will be weakening starting on Sunday. Lingering gale force winds will be moving out of the area with this system. A broad trough of cold air across the Bering will keep a small area of gales across the western Aleutians on Sunday, but these will move out of the area to the south on Monday. Then in the Gulf of AK, a developing system is riddled with uncertainty at this time. However, we are trending things into the gale force wind range to start the week with this forecast package. It is certainly possible this system could bring storm force winds (particularly in the Barrier Jet region), however, we will wait to see a few more model runs before we make that call.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Sunday through Thursday).

The long term continues to be a mess, quite frankly. Models are decidedly poor in performance, changing enough each day this week to have low confidence in them. Therefore, our forecast for the long term will be one of persistence and hedging towards the trend this winter of cycles of warming and cooling.

What this means for Southcentral is that we will continue to forecast a warm-up to start the long term, with sustained warmth through the week. This is sticking with this season's trend mentioned above by bringing us out of our current cold snap. Models are showing a series of lows and general southerly flow which is why we can at least expect that warmth to continue. Even with their fickle nature this week, they would be hard pressed to completely shift this pattern. Preliminarily for next week, there looks to be a compact low moving north along the Gulf coast Monday into Tuesday. Then, a larger and more powerful low looks to enter the western Gulf Wednesday into Thursday. Bottom line . warm, wet, and possibly windy weather for next week especially along the coast.

For the Bering, Aleutians, and Southwest AK . the longwave trough holds over the area which will continue to circulate low pressure systems within it through early next week. Models are hinting at a shortwave ridge entering the Bering Wednesday, briefly calming things midweek. Another large and powerful low looks to enter the western Bering and Aleutians Thursday. All the while, the previously mentioned powerful low in the western Gulf that develops midweek will have at least some play on weather in southwest AK with easterly winds. However, the Alaska Range will probably block most weather. Details are yet to emerge for out west in all locations, but do expect unsettled weather for the foreseeable future.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory . 155.

MARINE . Gale: 119, 130, 131, 132, 139, 150, 155, 160, 165, 172, 178, 179, 180, 181, 185, 352, 414. Heavy Freezing Spray: 181

FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . DK MARINE/LONG TERM . MSO/BB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 1 mi57 min 45°F1005.1 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi57 min 45°F3 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 17 mi27 min N 21 G 24 31°F 1004.1 hPa (-0.7)29°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 19 mi57 min ENE 19 26°F 1004 hPa24°F
HMSA2 19 mi25 min NE 16 G 22 26°F 1002.6 hPa22°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 39 mi27 min ENE 19 G 21 38°F 1002.8 hPa (-1.0)36°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK1 mi34 minN 010.00 miOvercast31°F25°F79%1005.3 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK18 mi34 minNE 610.00 miOvercast24°F21°F88%1005.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE6NE4NE4NE4CalmNE3NE4NE3NE3NE4NE4NE6NE8NE6NE6NE3NE3NE5CalmNE3NE4NE4NE6
1 day agoE5NE6NE4E75E5CalmCalmN3NE5NE4N3N3N3NW4NE3N3CalmN3CalmNE3CalmCalmNE3
2 days agoN7N7E4NE6CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N3CalmN4NE3CalmNE4N3CalmNE9NE4E6NE8NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.