Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:42AMSunset 6:47PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 4:14 AM AKDT (12:14 UTC) Moonrise 6:18PMMoonset 10:02AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 346 Am Akdt Wed Oct 16 2019
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat through Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia city, AK
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location: 59.45, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 160053
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
453 pm akdt Tue oct 15 2019

Analysis and upper levels
There is an upper level low over the far western bering sea, and
another low center developing just north of the western aleutians.

There is an upper low over the southern gulf. High pressure is
over central and northern alaska. There is a front along the
southwest coast of alaska, stretching back to a surface low over
the northwest bering. This surface low is the remnants of
"hagibis", which is still fairly deep at 960 mb but is slowly
filling and moving west. There is a rather strong surface low
(around 966 mb) vertically stacked under the low north of the
western aleutians, and this low is still deepening and moving
rapidly eastward. Winds on the south side of this low are
approaching hurricane force. Some moisture associated with the
gulf low is along the north gulf coast, moving very slowly
westward.

Model discussion
The numerical models are in fairly good agreement on the synoptic
pattern through Thursday afternoon. The main differences involve
the handling of a low over the eastern bering Wednesday morning as
it splits into several centers and rapidly moves eastward across
the alaska peninsula into the gulf Thursday and Thursday night.

This doesn't impact the wind fields that much, and the forecast
confidence is near normal.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through
tonight. Conditions could drop to MVFR Wednesday morning with
periods of flurries or very light snow.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3 Tuesday
night through Friday)...

high pressure continues to exist over much of mainland ak while
disorganized low pressure spins in the gulf of alaska. An area of
cloud cover has worked its way over the copper river basin with
enough instability to provide some light snow for gulkana.

Otherwise, the only thing of note is the weak low pressure system
working its way over the eastern kenai peninsula and prince
william sound. Expect this will produce rain along the coast and
snow over higher elevations. There is still a chance some of this
moisture will spill over the chugach and into anchorage tomorrow
morning. Right now, it looks like flurries or a period of very
light snow with only a dusting at most expected, as it will remain
cold enough to snow at valley level. After the exit of this
system, its pretty quiet for southcentral ak through the rest of
the week.

Disorganized and weakening low pressure will produce some gale
force winds in the western gulf of alaska tonight but will taper
off tomorrow. The next front enters the western gulf of alaska
tomorrow night from the akpen with gale force winds. This front
stays south of kodiak island though so much of the weather will
stay well offshore in the southern gulf of alaska.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
(tonight through Friday evening)
a front will approach the coast of the mainland before stalling
later tonight. Widespread precipitation will develop along and
ahead of this feature, as an over-running setup develops. As of
right now, the best chance to see any rain or snow looks to be
southwest of a line from iliamna to mekoryuk. Further north and
east, look for abundant cloud cover to dominate your weather,
which should help mitigate any concerns for fog development. As
the system moves away from the region on Thursday and Friday,
cloud cover will continue to be prevalent.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
(tonight through Friday evening)
this afternoon's forecast remains on track. The remnants of
hagabis continue to shift away from the region towards siberia,
with our next system of interest continuing to strengthen.

Currently, the storm is northeast of shemya, where instability
continues to build as cold air advects into the region on the
backside of the storm. This is very evident in this afternoon's
satellite imagery, with the weather observer at erickson station
in shemya reporting CB (cumulus nimbus) clouds in their most
recent observation. This is the type of cloud most commonly
associated with any thunderstorm development. This cold air will
continue to spread eastward, with the best chance of seeing any
thunderstorms being located along the southern flank of the
system.

Of bigger concern will be the winds and waves. Today's model runs
continue to be in excellent agreement, as they portray a compact
storm trekking across the southern bering sea. Widespread
sustained storm force winds are expected, with some hurricane
force winds along the immediate southwestern and southern flank
of the low. Similar to yesterday's storm, a very long fetch length
will be conducive to significant wave heights, which look to top
out near 40 feet.

Conditions look to improve for Thursday and Friday though, as the
storm exits the region to the east southeast while weakening, with
winds dropping below headline criteria and wave heights
decreasing as well.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Westerly gales along the coastal waters near the eastern
aleutians and alaska peninsula will diminish gradually Thursday
through Thursday night with winds across the bering and aleutians
expected for the most part to remain below gales through Friday
and Saturday. There are, however, a couple of smaller troughs
moving through the broader troughing on Friday and Saturday that
do bear watching with the potential to produce brief periods of
localized stronger winds in the central and eastern aleutians as
they spin up.

For the gulf, westerly winds near gale force are possible at times
in the southern gulf Thursday and Friday as small troughs rotate
through the broader westerly flow but otherwise winds are expected
to remain below gales through Saturday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
By Friday, upper level troughing extending from a broad vertically
stacked low over the bering will stretch east across much of
mainland alaska, extending to a second vertically stacked low in
the central gulf. A cut off upper level low over the bristol bay
area embedded in the broader troughing will lift to the northwest
over the kuskowim delta Friday night and Saturday while the low in
the gulf moves slowly north.

A developing north pacific frontal system located well to the
south of the alaska peninsula Friday night will track to the
northeast across the southern gulf Saturday to reach the southeast
alaska panhandle Sunday. In response, the upper low in the
central bering will rotate southeastward over the eastern
aleutians on Sunday before turning into a open trough and
continuing to the east just south of the alaska peninsula. Also
caught up in the same rotation, the upper low over the kuskowim
delta will swing to the northwest, moving offshore Sunday and then
turning south to swing by st matthew island and the pribilofs
Sunday night and Monday before becoming quasi-stationary over the
eastern bering offshore of the kuskokwim delta through midweek.

The next potentially rather strong low will track in from the
west, crossing the north pacific well to the south of the western
aleutians Sunday night and then beginning to turn to the
northeast Monday and Monday night while it is south of the
central and eastern aleutians. While all the models are in good
agreement with the potential for this to be a powerful storm and
in fair agreement regarding the speed of its eastward progress,
there are very large differences regarding its north to south
position. The 12z GFS has the furthest south track, keeping the
low well clear of the aleutians as it rapidly deepens. Both the
ecmwf and the canadian models curve the low to the northeast more
rapidly, bringing it just south of the western alaska peninsula
by Tuesday morning while the GFS solution's low remains roughly
350 miles further south. The ECMWF and canadian models both then
bring low into bristol bay while the GFS tracks the low into the
gulf for Wednesday and Thursday.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... High wind warning: 195.

Marine... Hurricane force wind warning: 413, 414.

Storm warning: 155, 165, 170-173, 175, 176, 179, 412.

Gale warning: 131, 132, 150, 160, 174, 177, 178, 180, 352, 411.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bl
southcentral alaska... Bb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pd
marine long term... Jr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 1 mi56 min 47°F991.8 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi44 min 48°F1 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 17 mi44 min NNE 6 G 8 41°F 992.2 hPa31°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 19 mi104 min ENE 11 39°F 991 hPa33°F
HMSA2 19 mi42 min ENE 8.9 G 14 38°F 989.7 hPa32°F
APXA2 23 mi89 min ESE 4.1 29°F 993 hPa22°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 39 mi44 min NNW 12 G 19 43°F 991.4 hPa31°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK1 mi21 minN 010.00 miOvercast34°F32°F92%992.2 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK18 mi21 minNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy0°F0°F%992.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN4NE3NE4NE3NE3NE5NE3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE5NE3NE5NE5NE5
1 day agoNE6N4CalmNE3NE3E5E4NE4CalmCalmNE7NE8NE11NE9NE10NE7NE7N5NE7NE7N4CalmNE3Calm
2 days agoNE3CalmN3NE5NE5N4NE3E3E4SE3E5SE4NE7NE6NE3NE6NE7NE8E8NE7NE4NE6N6NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.