Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia city, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 242346 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 346 PM AKDT Sun May 24 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A broad upper low continues over the eastern Bering Sea/eastern Aleutians. Its associated trough extends eastward across the northern Gulf of Alaska. This upper feature is supporting a north moving surface low and its associated front over the northern Gulf. Widespread rain connected with these features is evident from the Gulf Coast to over the MAT-SU Valleys. Extensive cloud cover associated with the front extends across much of the southern Mainland. Only a few showers were evident across Southwest Alaska early is afternoon. A cold upper trough associated with the low over the eastern Bering is moving north and may kick off a few thunderstorms over Southwest Alaska this evening. Cloudy conditions with showers and rain were evident over the Aleutians and Bering Sea.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models overall are in good synoptic agreement through Tuesday. Models do differ some on the amount of QPF expected with an Easterly Wave which moves into the Copper River Basin Monday and Monday night. The higher resolution NAM and Canadian Regional seem to have the best handle on the QPF totals.

AVIATION. PANC . Generally VFR conditions should persist, though the ceiling will be at or below 5000 ft at times through tonight. Gusty southerly winds are expected across the airport complex by early this evening and will likely continue into the morning hours Monday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). The front that has been bringing rain to much of Southcentral Alaska today is along the north Gulf coast through Cook Inlet this afternoon. It is progressing northward, and as it passes, will change the rain into rain showers which will diminish through the night. The exception will be the Copper River basin and far northern Susitna Valley which will see the moisture continue to upslope along the Alaska Range which will keep precipitation occurring.

Temperatures aloft will also drop with the passage of the front over the region. The Copper river Basin will see temperatures aloft cool enough that there may be some fresh snow as far down as 4000 ft overnight into Monday. In general, the cool and moist southeast flow aloft will continue into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). A broad upper level low positioned over the eastern Aleutians will allow for the showery pattern to persists late this afternoon before tapering off into the overnight hours. Clearing conditions and lingering moisture throughout the night could lead to possible fog development across interior Bristol Bay for the early morning hours. The next round of showers comes in Monday afternoon and evening as the low pushes farther east and the next upper level wave moves along the Bristol Bay coastline, which will keep the Alaska Peninsula and coastal locations in these conditions. The showers will then spread inland and persist over the next few days, keeping a chance for rain in the forecast through early Wednesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2). The stacked low over the eastern Bering and Aleutians will keep an active pattern of small craft advisory level winds and rain showers in the forecast from the central Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula. The showery pattern will persist through Tuesday afternoon as the low lifts northward and exits the forecast area. By late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, the next front approaches the region, bringing widespread rain as it moves eastward. Models are in better agreement today that this system will be stronger than previous runs, with the potential to see gale force winds later this week.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday). Gulf of Alaska: A low approaching the southern Gulf Wednesday will stall south of the Gulf and persist through Friday. Gales are possible throughout this time over the offshore marine zones, but are not expected at this point. Confidence is moderate, as any westward deviation in the track of the low could bring gales to the offshore zones.

Bering Sea/Aleutians: A low centered west of Attu Wednesday morning will bring a north-south oriented front into the Central Bering through Thursday morning. Gales are likely in the waters around Adak starting during the day Wednesday, which will expand to cover the waters from Adak to west of the Pribilofs and Saint Matthew Island by Thursday morning. The front rapidly weakens and the gale threat ends by Thursday evening. No gales expected on Friday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Monday). Model agreement going into the long-term is good. A large low over the far western Bering and its associated front draped across the central Bering will keep strong southerly flow ongoing across the central and western Bering into Saturday. High pressure over Southwest Alaska Thursday will persist while slowly drifting west into the eastern Bering through Saturday. A stalled out low over the southeastern Gulf Thursday remains nearly stationary through Sunday. Meanwhile, a second upper level easterly wave may return wet weather to Southcentral just in time for the upcoming weekend. Certainly the details about all of these features remain to be determined, but there is above average confidence. By Sunday and Monday, the track of the low over the Central Aleutians and where it goes diverges quickly, so very little can be said confidently about the forecast by then.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Flood Advisory 155 (Johnson River). MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . RC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . JW

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK	1 mi	65 min			45°F		1007.4 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK	17 mi	59 min	E 9.9 G 14	48°F			1007.7 hPa (+1.7)	36°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK	19 mi	89 min	S 9.9	50°F			1006 hPa	37°F
HMSA2	19 mi	37 min	SE 6 G 11	49°F			1005.4 hPa	36°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK	39 mi	59 min	S 5.1 G 6	45°F			1008.2 hPa (+1.7)	44°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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NE9 G12

NE7 G10

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK	1 mi	66 min	SSE 8	10.00 mi	Fair	47°F	37°F	71%	1007.8 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK	18 mi	66 min	Var 3	10.00 mi	Fair	49°F	36°F	61%	1008 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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