Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia city, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak68 pafc 160053 afdafc southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion national weather service anchorage ak 453 pm akdt Tue oct 15 2019 Analysis and upper levels There is an upper level low over the far western bering sea, and another low center developing just north of the western aleutians. There is an upper low over the southern gulf. High pressure is over central and northern alaska. There is a front along the southwest coast of alaska, stretching back to a surface low over the northwest bering. This surface low is the remnants of "hagibis", which is still fairly deep at 960 mb but is slowly filling and moving west. There is a rather strong surface low (around 966 mb) vertically stacked under the low north of the western aleutians, and this low is still deepening and moving rapidly eastward. Winds on the south side of this low are approaching hurricane force. Some moisture associated with the gulf low is along the north gulf coast, moving very slowly westward. Model discussion The numerical models are in fairly good agreement on the synoptic pattern through Thursday afternoon. The main differences involve the handling of a low over the eastern bering Wednesday morning as it splits into several centers and rapidly moves eastward across the alaska peninsula into the gulf Thursday and Thursday night. This doesn't impact the wind fields that much, and the forecast confidence is near normal. Aviation Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through tonight. Conditions could drop to MVFR Wednesday morning with periods of flurries or very light snow. .Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3 Tuesday night through Friday)... high pressure continues to exist over much of mainland ak while disorganized low pressure spins in the gulf of alaska. An area of cloud cover has worked its way over the copper river basin with enough instability to provide some light snow for gulkana. Otherwise, the only thing of note is the weak low pressure system working its way over the eastern kenai peninsula and prince william sound. Expect this will produce rain along the coast and snow over higher elevations. There is still a chance some of this moisture will spill over the chugach and into anchorage tomorrow morning. Right now, it looks like flurries or a period of very light snow with only a dusting at most expected, as it will remain cold enough to snow at valley level. After the exit of this system, its pretty quiet for southcentral ak through the rest of the week. Disorganized and weakening low pressure will produce some gale force winds in the western gulf of alaska tonight but will taper off tomorrow. The next front enters the western gulf of alaska tomorrow night from the akpen with gale force winds. This front stays south of kodiak island though so much of the weather will stay well offshore in the southern gulf of alaska. Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3) (tonight through Friday evening) a front will approach the coast of the mainland before stalling later tonight. Widespread precipitation will develop along and ahead of this feature, as an over-running setup develops. As of right now, the best chance to see any rain or snow looks to be southwest of a line from iliamna to mekoryuk. Further north and east, look for abundant cloud cover to dominate your weather, which should help mitigate any concerns for fog development. As the system moves away from the region on Thursday and Friday, cloud cover will continue to be prevalent. Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3) (tonight through Friday evening) this afternoon's forecast remains on track. The remnants of hagabis continue to shift away from the region towards siberia, with our next system of interest continuing to strengthen. Currently, the storm is northeast of shemya, where instability continues to build as cold air advects into the region on the backside of the storm. This is very evident in this afternoon's satellite imagery, with the weather observer at erickson station in shemya reporting CB (cumulus nimbus) clouds in their most recent observation. This is the type of cloud most commonly associated with any thunderstorm development. This cold air will

continue to spread eastward, with the best chance of seeing any thunderstorms being located along the southern flank of the system. Of bigger concern will be the winds and waves. Today's model runs continue to be in excellent agreement, as they portray a compact storm trekking across the southern bering sea. Widespread sustained storm force winds are expected, with some hurricane force winds along the immediate southwestern and southern flank of the low. Similar to yesterday's storm, a very long fetch length will be conducive to significant wave heights, which look to top out near 40 feet. Conditions look to improve for Thursday and Friday though, as the storm exits the region to the east southeast while weakening, with winds dropping below headline criteria and wave heights decreasing as well. Marine (days 3 through 5) Westerly gales along the coastal waters near the eastern aleutians and alaska peninsula will diminish gradually Thursday through Thursday night with winds across the bering and aleutians expected for the most part to remain below gales through Friday and Saturday. There are, however, a couple of smaller troughs moving through the broader troughing on Friday and Saturday that do bear watching with the potential to produce brief periods of localized stronger winds in the central and eastern aleutians as they spin up. For the gulf, westerly winds near gale force are possible at times in the southern gulf Thursday and Friday as small troughs rotate through the broader westerly flow but otherwise winds are expected to remain below gales through Saturday. Long term forecast (days 3 through 7) By Friday, upper level troughing extending from a broad vertically stacked low over the bering will stretch east across much of mainland alaska, extending to a second vertically stacked low in the central gulf. A cut off upper level low over the bristol bay area embedded in the broader troughing will lift to the northwest over the kuskowim delta Friday night and Saturday while the low in the gulf moves slowly north. A developing north pacific frontal system located well to the south of the alaska peninsula Friday night will track to the northeast across the southern gulf Saturday to reach the southeast alaska panhandle Sunday. In response, the upper low in the central bering will rotate southeastward over the eastern aleutians on Sunday before turning into a open trough and continuing to the east just south of the alaska peninsula. Also caught up in the same rotation, the upper low over the kuskowim delta will swing to the northwest, moving offshore Sunday and then turning south to swing by st matthew island and the pribilofs Sunday night and Monday before becoming quasi-stationary over the eastern bering offshore of the kuskokwim delta through midweek. The next potentially rather strong low will track in from the west, crossing the north pacific well to the south of the western aleutians Sunday night and then beginning to turn to the northeast Monday and Monday night while it is south of the central and eastern aleutians. While all the models are in good agreement with the potential for this to be a powerful storm and in fair agreement regarding the speed of its eastward progress, there are very large differences regarding its north to south position. The 12z GFS has the furthest south track, keeping the low well clear of the aleutians as it rapidly deepens. Both the ecmwf and the canadian models curve the low to the northeast more rapidly, bringing it just south of the western alaska peninsula by Tuesday morning while the GFS solution's low remains roughly 350 miles further south. The ECMWF and canadian models both then bring low into bristol bay while the GFS tracks the low into the gulf for Wednesday and Thursday. Afc watches warnings advisories Public... High wind warning: 195. Marine... Hurricane force wind warning: 413, 414. Storm warning: 155, 165, 170-173, 175, 176, 179, 412. Gale warning: 131, 132, 150, 160, 174, 177, 178, 180, 352, 411. Fire weather... None. Synopsis and model discussion... Bl southcentral alaska... Bb southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pd marine long term... Jr

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK	1 mi	56 min			47°F		991.8 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175	12 mi	44 min			48°F	1 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK	17 mi	44 min	NNE 6 G 8	41°F			992.2 hPa	31°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK	19 mi	104 min	ENE 11	39°F			991 hPa	33°F
HMSA2	19 mi	42 min	ENE 8.9 G 14	38°F			989.7 hPa	32°F
APXA2	23 mi	89 min	ESE 4.1	29°F			993 hPa	22°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK	39 mi	44 min	NNW 12 G 19	43°F			991.4 hPa	31°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK	1 mi	21 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	34°F	32°F	92%	992.2 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK	18 mi	21 min	NE 5	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	0°F	0°F	%	992.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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