Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia city, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 271400 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 AM AKST Mon Jan 27 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

On satellite imagery there is a low spinning southwest of Shemya with an occluded front wrapped into it. There is a 180+ knot jet core south of the western Aleutians. Northerly flow continues over southwest Alaska which is the result of low pressure in the Gulf Of Alaska and high pressure over the Bering Sea. This pattern has been persistent and has been ushering arctic air into the region resulting in dangerously low wind chills over southwest Alaska. The radar at Middleton Island has detected an uptick in shower activity compared to 24 hrs ago associated with a low south of Chenega.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

For initialization purposes compared the returns at 6z on Middleton island radar to the projected precipitation with the GFS/NAM/ECMWF and Canadian. The NAM did well pinging into the precipitation near Kayak Island while the GFS had the correct orientation of the precipitation band associated with a weak inverted trough south of Chenega and Seward. Even the high resolution of the ECMWF was simply too broad brushed with the precipitation over the Gulf Of Alaska. At 6z using the cyclonic curvature as a proxy for the location of the low, the NAM and GFS did fairly similar with the placement of the surface low south of Montague Island. This was seconded by the 6z ASCAT (advanced scatterometer) pass.

Models are in decent agreement with the longwave pattern keeping the high amplitude trough over most of the mainland/Gulf and placing the block over the Central Bering. However, they struggle with the placement of the surface lows even in the near term and the the divergence amplifies handedly Tuesday as a low moves from the north Pacific and into the Gulf Of Alaska.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions are expected at the onset of this TAF package. There is a low south of Seward and moisture is getting wrapped around this feature. The expectations is that cigs will develop over the aerodrome later today but at this point the cigs should remain above 5,000 feet until 6z on the 28th. The winds are expected to remain relatively light.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2; Sunday night and Tuesday) .

An upper level trough situated across mainland Alaska will keep a strong north to south pressure gradient and gusty outflow winds across the region. Coastal locations, including Seward, Whittier, and Valdez will continue to see these strong winds with the continuation of polar lows developing over the Gulf of Alaska today. The Middleton Island radar this morning has already indicated snow showers moving into the north Gulf coast associated with the the first polar low, which will move inland and lead to blizzard conditions throughout the day for Thompson Pass. Areas near Seward and Whittier will also see blowing snow and reduced visibilities are expected through this evening with a winter weather advisory in effect.

Winds begin to diminish across Southcentral late Monday as the upper level trough begins to shift westward as a North Pacific low begins to lift northward. By Tuesday morning, this strong storm- force low will make its way into the southern Gulf. Expect a strong pressure gradient to redevelop over Southcentral Alaska, which will lead to another round of gusty outflow winds through Wednesday. Kodiak City and areas along the north Gulf coast will be areas to keep an eye on with this next system as it could lead to advisory level snowfall amounts.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday Night) .

The primary weather story continues to be the cold temperatures and gusty winds causing very low wind chills across Southwest Alaska. Nearly the entire area is under mainly clear skies, but some ocean-effect snow is impacting the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak Island near Hooper Bay and Mekoryuk. Low stratus clouds are moving over the area east of King Salmon as well. The mainly clear skies and gusty north winds continue most everywhere else. The Wind Chill Advisories remain in effect through noon on Wednesday. The coldest wind chills will be late tonight into Tuesday morning. A strong low moving into the Gulf late Tuesday night into Wednesday will increase the winds, but will also bring some cloud cover which will modestly increase temperatures. Any precipitation will be limited to areas right along the Aleutian and Alaska Ranges.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday Night) .

A very stagnant weather pattern will persist through Wednesday night across the Bering. Strong cold air advection on northeast winds will keep ocean-effect snow bands continuing across the eastern half of the Bering, and along the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians. High pressure over the central Bering this morning will shift westward by Tuesday morning into the western Bering. This will allow the cold air to move further west across the basin. Otherwise, the coldest air will continue to stream across the eastern Bering through Wednesday night, keeping the temperatures well below average, with ocean-effect snow causing briefly reduced visibilities, and large areas of heavy freezing spray across the eastern Bering.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5). Gulf of Alaska: The leading edge of a storm force low enters the southern Gulf Tuesday morning, bringing ample precipitation and easterly winds across the Gulf Tuesday evening. While there is high confidence in the strength of the low, there is lower confidence on exactly where the low center tracks. We are currently expecting the low center to track east of Kodiak Island Wednesday morning, bringing a swath of easterly storm force winds to the waters along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday. Westerly gales will fill in across the Gulf on the backside of the low as it lifts northward. It is possible that these westerly gales could reach storm force levels Wednesday night. There is high confidence that this low pressure remains nearly stationary, becoming reinforced with additional energy in the upper levels for the end of the week. Waves in excess of 20 feet are expected with this low.

Bering Sea and Aleutians: Gusty northerly flow will persist over the eastern Bering waters midweek. Gales will become more widespread across the Bering as a low in the Gulf strengthens and lifts northward. Enhanced winds through the usual gaps and passes along the Alaska Peninsula will last through Thursday. Heavy freezing spray is expected across much of the eastern Bering waters, and the Pacific side of the eastern Aleutians.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7). A storm force low in the Gulf of Alaska will slowly lift northward and inland over Southcentral Wednesday night. The northern Gulf coast will likely see ample precipitation through Thursday. Model solutions continue to key in on reinforcing features in the upper levels, leading to the possibility of prolonged precipitation over the northern Gulf coast through the end of the week as this system is revived by an upper level wave Thursday into Friday. The remnants of this low look to finally exit the Gulf to the east by the weekend, as an upper level ridge approaches from the west. Meanwhile over the Bering, cold northerly flow is expected to continue through the end of the week. By the weekend another low approaches the western Aleutians, bringing unsettled conditions for the beginning of February.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Wind Chill Advisory 155 161. Blizzard Warning 131 (T-Pass) Blowing Snow Advisory 125. MARINE. Gale 411 413 414 150 155 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 119 120 121 127 128 130 132 131 138 139. Heavy Freezing Spray 121 127 129 130 138 139 141 414 150 155 165 171 179 185.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . JW MARINE/LONG TERM . KO

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK	1 mi	60 min			37°F		989.7 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK	17 mi	42 min	N 25 G 31	13°F			989.3 hPa (+0.0)	7°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK	19 mi	72 min	E 14	8°F			989 hPa	-1°F
HMSA2	19 mi	30 min	ENE 8 G 14	7°F			987.5 hPa	-1°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK	39 mi	42 min	WNW 21 G 42	13°F			986.3 hPa (-0.7)	10°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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SE5

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E3 G6

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NE11 G17

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NE10 G16

NE12 G18

NE12 G19

NE14 G20

NE14 G17

NE13 G17

NE10 G15

NE9 G12

NE7 G16

NE6 G13

NE5

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NE3 G6

1 day ago

NE12 G20

NE12 G20

NE20

NE9 G16

NE11 G19

NE15 G24

NE12 G18

NE14 G22

NE9 G15

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NE13 G20

NE16 G25

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NE11 G20

NE8 G12

NE12 G17

NE9 G14

NE7 G10

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N8 G11

E6

NE4

E5

2 days ago

N8 G11

NE6 G9

NE8 G12

NE6 G10

N11 G16

NE10 G13

N12 G21

N14 G19

NE9 G13

N12 G18

NE13 G19

NE14 G17

N9 G15

NE13 G18

NE10 G18

NE10 G16

NE14 G18

NE12 G21

NE12 G16

NE9 G15

NE9 G18

NE8 G16

NE16 G23

NE15 G23

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK	1 mi	49 min	N 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	10°F	1°F	67%	990 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK	18 mi	49 min	NE 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	6°F	-2°F	66%	990.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)

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N5

NE5

N4

Calm

NE5

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NE5

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E8

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Calm

N5

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N6

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N3

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1 day ago

NW4

NE5

NE4

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NE16 G23

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Calm

N3

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NW3

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NE7

N13 G17

N10 G20

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NE8

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3

N6

N4

N6

Calm

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NE5

NE5

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Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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