Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 9:34PM Saturday August 24, 2019 3:43 AM AKDT (11:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:41PMMoonset 3:45PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 304 Pm Akdt Fri Aug 23 2019
Tonight..S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of smoke.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Areas of smoke.
Sat night..SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of smoke.
Sun..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia city, AK
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location: 59.45, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 240103 aaa
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service anchorage ak
503 pm akdt Fri aug 23 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The main upper level low is centered in the canadian arctic with a
secondary low center dropping southward over the bering sea. The
upper level trough between these two lows is moving over southwest
mainland and southcentral alaska today. As this wave passes it
will turn upper level flow to the northwest over the region. The
north pacific jet remains to the south of these lows as it runs
from west-to-east just south of the alaska peninsula and gulf of
alaska.

Model discussion
Models remain in good agreement through the weekend. The upper
level wave dropping out of the kuskokwim valley and bristol bay
today looks to be less impressive than models were indicating
yesterday.

Aviation
Panc... Smoke should lessen this evening as winds from the
northwest increase a little and bring somewhat less smoky air into
the terminal area. Potential for MVFR visibilities from smoke
remain, but should be overall improved from today.

Fire weather
The main factor impacting fires the next day or so will be winds.

Winds will turn to the northwest this afternoon and increase some
this evening. This will bring in drier air as well. We are not
expecting anything close to what occurred with winds and low rh
values last weekend, but more like gusts in the 10 to 15 mph
range.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
A broad upper trough has moved into southcentral and triggered
isolated showers this afternoon which will linger into the
evening. There are multiple vorticity lobes embedded in this
trough and the expectation is that convection will percolate again
tomorrow afternoon. The antecedent airmass was parched so it will
be difficult the saturate the boundary layer. Some areas will see
little more than virga and significant precipitation accumulations
are not expected with this weak upper level system. Unfortunately,
there will not be enough precipitation to abate the smoke
situation.

The models do bring a new low over kodiak on Sunday. At this time,
the current thinking is that the precipitation will be confined to
kodiak, the gulf of alaska, the kenai mountains and chugach
mountains. Those mountains will block moisture from reaching the
western kenai peninsula and the anchorage metro area.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
A shortwave moving north to south through southwest alaska is
bringing instability to the area. This is resulting in showers
from the middle kuskokwim valley through bristol bay. There is
enough instability for isolated thunderstorms to form in this same
corridor. After the shortwave pushes through this evening,
chances of rain will diminish throughout southwest alaska as high
pressure starts to build in from the west. This setup will also
lead to light winds. The light winds and dry conditions will last
through the weekend and into Monday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
High pressure to the west of the western aleutians will slowly
move east across the bering through the weekend and into Monday.

East of the ridge axis will see northerly winds which will help
bring light rain to the bering side of the aleutians. The best
chance for rain will be over the eastern aleutians and alaska
peninsula due to an upper level low moving through the flow. This
low will make it to the pacific side of the alaska peninsula
Saturday night. After the ridge moves into the central bering on
Sunday, a front will approach the western aleutians bringing rain
back to the islands. This weak front will follow behind the ridge
as it tracks east.

Marine (days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)
There is high confidence that a low forming just south of the
alaska peninsula Sunday afternoon will traverse the gulf from
west to east, reaching the alaska panhandle by Monday evening.

This low will bring easterly small craft winds to the northern
gulf coast for Monday. As the low departs to the east, a weak
trough will remain over the gulf through midweek. Meanwhile in the
bering, a ridge of high pressure moves over the eastern bering
Tuesday afternoon, allowing a possible gale force low to approach
the western bering Wednesday afternoon. At this time, there is
low confidence regarding the strength and track of this bering
low.

.Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

the general long-term pattern includes an elongated upper level
trough over the mainland while a ridge builds over the bering.

Several shortwaves will propagate across the southern mainland
bringing mostly unsettled, showery conditions through the middle
of next week. One key feature that model solutions have locked
onto is a low entering the western bering Wednesday afternoon and
strengthening as it progresses eastward through the end of the
week. If this pans out, the ridge will be suppressed and a pretty
significant pattern change would be underway, bringing more fall-
like conditions to the southern mainland by the first weekend of
september.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Dense smoke advisory: 121 125.

Flood advisory: 121 125.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Pjs
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
marine long term... Ko


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 1 mi61 min 51°F1002.5 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi43 min 54°F2 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 17 mi43 min S 4.1 G 6 58°F 1003.3 hPa (+1.0)50°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 19 mi73 min E 6 52°F 1001 hPa49°F
HMSA2 19 mi31 min ENE 7 G 9.9 51°F 1002.4 hPa45°F
APXA2 23 mi118 min ESE 5.1 49°F 1002 hPa44°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 39 mi43 min NNW 9.9 G 18 61°F 1003.3 hPa (+0.8)46°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK1 mi50 minSSW 310.00 miFair48°F43°F83%1002.9 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK18 mi50 minNNE 310.00 miFair45°F44°F97%1003 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4--NE4--NE3E3E5--SE5SW6SW6--SW13W13SW15
G20
--------NE3NE4N3CalmNE3
1 day agoNE3NE4N5----E3E4CalmS5SW4SW4----SW6--------------Calm--NE3
2 days agoCalm----NE3NE4NE5E3E5--E4E3SW4W10W11SW11----SW6----------Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.