Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia, AK

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 4:57AMSunset 11:14PM Friday July 19, 2019 2:42 PM AKDT (22:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:25PMMoonset 6:28AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 309 Am Akdt Fri Jul 19 2019
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun through Mon..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia city, AK
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location: 59.45, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 191159
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
359 am akdt Fri jul 19 2019

Analysis and upper levels
Weak flow in the mid and upper levels continues across much of
southcentral alaska as the region sits between two upper-level
lows, one over the gulf and a second over northern alaska, and two
building upper-level ridges, one over the yukon and a second
moving over southwest alaska from the bering. A light southerly
wind remains present across the susitna valley where daytime
heating has resulted in a weak thermal trough. Stronger offshore
winds also continue from the eastern kenai peninsula south to
kodiak island due to a tight pressure gradient between the
building high over the southwest and a retrograding surface low
moving west toward the barren islands.

With little upper-level support, shower and thunderstorm activity
yesterday was more isolated and confined to the higher terrain,
with much of the convection ending quickly after sunset. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will fire up again later today, given
the persistent warm, unstable conditions across southcentral.

Much like yesterday, areas of smoke will remain a concern across
the northern kenai peninsula, the anchorage bowl, the lower mat-
su valleys, as well as portions of the copper river basin as a
southerly flow draws smoke northward. For the southwest, smoke
will remain a concern from iliamna to king salmon as smoke from
fires in the kuskokwim valley are pulled southeast around the
ridge of high pressure.

Widespread low clouds and patchy fog remain over much of the
southwest, a result of a stable airmass due to the building ridge
and steady onshore flow. Gusty northwesterly gap winds up to 35
kts continue for areas south of the akpen due to the tight
pressure gradient between the ridge and the low in the gulf.

Model discussion
Models remain in fairly good agreement through the short term.

The extent of smoke and cloud coverage will remain the most
challenging part of the forecast as stability generally increases
and as the weak southerly flow aloft transitions to a northerly
flow moving through the weekend. Overall, forecast confidence
remains above average.

Aviation
Panc... GeneralVFR conditions and light winds will persist. Smoke
continues to be a concern and a forecast challenge. A light
southerly flow early this morning may carry smoke from the swan
lake fire north over the terminal reducing visibility at times.

Smoke may again advect over anchorage this evening as the up-inlet
flow increases and a stronger southerly wind moves across the
airport complex. However, with daytime heating and a more unstable
atmosphere, this round of smoke may be elevated and not impact
visibility. Clouds will also be on the increase later this evening
with the potential for the ceiling to drop to 5,000ft after 6z.

Fire weather
Southcentral... Moisture advecting in from the east around a low
over the gulf of alaska will increase clouds, thus increasing
humidity and lowering high temperatures. The atmosphere will
continue to become more stable, but isolated thunderstorms are
possible today for inland areas mainly over higher terrain. A few
thunderstorms are possible on Saturday in the copper river basin.

Minimal fire weather concerns southwest, for the short term,
given the upper ridge sitting over the bering with persistent
onshore flow. A high over the alcan border will initiate a
warming, drying trend Monday or Tuesday... The forecast will need
to be monitored for convection potential.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Moisture wrapping around the low in the gulf will push into the
area from the east. This will bring increased cloud cover, along
with cooler daytime temperatures and some isolated to scattered
showers today and Saturday. The atmosphere is slowly becoming more
stable but some diurnal thunderstorms are possible today for
inland areas. These will mainly be confined to higher terrain. On
Saturday it becomes even more stable and there is only a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the copper river basin.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Southwest alaska remains downstream of an upper ridge over the
bering sea, thus expect onshore flow to bring stable, cloudy
conditions over the next few days. Fog potential will continue
along the kuskokwim delta coast, likely making it inland to
bethel Saturday morning.

The smoke forecast will be a challenge... Plenty of fires
continue to burn in and around the kuskokwim valley but with the
onshore push conditions should generally improve. That said, smoke
filtered south Thursday from the middle kuskokwim valley towards
lake clark and iliamna and with similar winds forecast today
expect a similar smoke situation.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Northerly gap winds south of the akpen stretching from dutch
harbor to kodiak island continue to be the main concern for the
forecast. Sustained small craft advisory level winds will
continue through early Saturday morning with possible gale force
gusts. Otherwise, high pressure over the bering sea will continue
mostly benign conditions over the next few days. Expect widespread
fog and low stratus and probably some drizzle squeezing out as
well.

Marine (days 3 through 5; Saturday evening through Monday)
Sub gales are expected to persist through Monday over the bering
and gulf. Seas may increase to at or near 10 feet in the western
bering by Sunday afternoon ahead of a front but will remain lower
elsewhere. No significant systems appear likely for the
foreseeable future.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7; Sunday through Wednesday)
Long range models are similar to yesterday, in general showing an
upper level trough over siberia, a ridge over the mainland and a
pair of low pressures off the bc coast and tracking south of the
aleutians, respectively. The main challenge involves how these
systems interact. The early part of next week does not indicate a
particularly wet pattern for southcentral, though afternoon
convection may be possible over the mountains. Confidence remains
low mid-week and beyond. The GFS remains a slight outlier with
both a much stronger siberian trough and upper level gulf low
where as the european and ensembles are not as aggressive. The
gfs solution would generally bring colder temperatures and more
precipitation while the latter solutions would bring drier
conditions and more seasonable temperatures.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Tm
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mm
marine long term... Ap


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 1 mi55 min 52°F1014.7 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi43 min 53°F3 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 17 mi43 min SSW 9.9 G 16 59°F 1015.8 hPa (+0.8)51°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 19 mi73 min WNW 8 61°F 1014 hPa54°F
HMSA2 19 mi31 min W 8 G 13 60°F 1014.8 hPa51°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 39 mi43 min N 8 G 9.9 60°F 1016.6 hPa (+1.4)52°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK1 mi50 minS 10 G 1610.00 miFair72°F55°F55%1015 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK18 mi50 minW 107.00 miHaze Smoke67°F54°F63%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW8SW8W8W8SW74CalmCalmNW3NE4NE3NE3NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmNE34SW7SW8W8W10
1 day agoW11SW14W12W14
G20
W11W10SW8SW5CalmNE3NE4NE3NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW6SW7SW7
2 days agoSW5SW5SW9W12W10W6SW5SW4CalmE3NE5W3CalmCalmNE4E3NE4NE4NE4NE3E3S4W7W8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.