Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Halibut Cove, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:37AMSunset 6:53PM Monday October 14, 2019 5:48 PM AKDT (01:48 UTC) Moonrise 5:49PMMoonset 7:22AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 345 Pm Akdt Mon Oct 14 2019
Tonight..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..N wind 15 kt becoming ne 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Wed and Wed night..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Halibut Cove, AK
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location: 59.51, -151.22     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 150040
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
440 pm akdt Mon oct 14 2019

Analysis and upper levels
Two major systems continue to dominate the active weather pattern
across the domain today. The first is out of the bering in what
is left of the former typhoon hagibis. The second is a deepening
low drifting to the south out of the gulf of ak. Much of mainland
alaska remains under the influence of high pressure in between
these two systems leaving sensible weather mostly dry, cool, and
quiet.

Over the bering, the low that was formerly hagibis is nearing
peak intensity. It is sitting in the favored left exit region of a
strong 150 kt jet at 300mb (30,000'). The lowest recorded central
pressure to this point has been 956.3 mb on buoy 46035. Models
show the potential for it to deepen a bit more this afternoon
dropping as low as 950 mb, but it may miss any platform that could
sample the deepest value. Winds have peaked between 70-80 mph so
far, mostly along the western aleutians.

The other system moving into the north pacific has completely
occluded on satellite this afternoon. It is spinning some cold air
and some upper level energy around its center. We will monitor its
associated front for the possible formation of smaller
circulations.

Model discussion
Models continue to do a fine job with the overall synoptic
pattern. There is high confidence in this portion of the forecast.

However, there are discrepancies in the finer details the could
prove to be important. The first of these is regarding the
"trailing" low coming into the western bering quickly on the heels
of hagibis. By Tue afternoon, a compact, but strong low will
quickly traverse along the aleutian chain. The forecast models now
seem in much better agreement with this system than 24 hours ago.

It is worth noting that the ECMWF was the first to catch onto it.

This forecast package will trend towards a stronger, consolidated
low that could impact the pribilof islands. The other uncertain
arena is across the northern gulf of ak. The forecast models
continue to really struggle with some smaller circulations
wrapping through that area from east to west. The GFS has been the
most aggressive with this feature, but it has backed off (and
dropped further south) on recent runs. This will be watched
closely as it could bring some light snowfall to portions of the
western prince william sound and possibly as far west as anchorage
wed morning.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3 Monday
night through Thursday)...

high pressure exists over the mainland while low pressure spins in
the gulf of alaska. Movement of air flowing from high pressure to
low pressure is keeping gusty offshore flow through gaps and
passes in southcentral and keeping conditions generally cold and
dry for the mainland. Offshore, the low in the gulf is creating
gale force winds over marine areas.

One interesting aspect of the forecast is a weak low pressure that
will generate along the gulf coast late tomorrow into Wednesday.

This will bring precipitation to the eastern kenai peninsula and
move northwest toward the anchorage area overnight. As of now, it
looks like the cold dry air in place will keep any precipitation
out of anchorage, with the low stopping short around whittier. If
things do change any precipitation that reaches anchorage will
fall as snow or a rain snow mix. However, the chance of this
happening is slim and any accumulation will not amount to much.

Models are still figuring this system out though, so it bears
watching the next couple of days.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
(tonight through Thursday evening)
a fairly strong front associated with post tropical cyclone
hagibis will approach the coast this evening, with widespread
rainfall developing along it. This front will weaken as it pushes
inland overnight and through the day Wednesday morning, as it
outruns the better upper-level support.

Then, another front approaches the coast by Wednesday afternoon,
as another storm system slides across the central bering and
through the akpen. Widespread rainfall will once again develop
along and ahead of this feature, with coastal communities seeing
the best potential for more rainfall.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
(tonight through Thursday evening)
the tale of two storms best sums up the weather for the region.

Currently, the remnants of super typhoon hagibis have helped
initiate rapid cyclogenesis, with the low forecast to bottom out
around 950 mb later this evening. Given a long fetch length and
hurricane force sustained winds expected, wave heights will
continue to build. This has already been observed, with buoy 46070
showing a 5 foot increase during the last 3 hours. This will
continue through the evening, with maximum wave heights of 45 to
50 feet expected. As for the winds, earlier this morning winds
near adak were gusting to just shy of 80 mph, with current
observations showing gusts near 60 mph across the central
aleutians and pribilof islands. These winds will gradually
diminish for the aleutian chain, with it taking longer to subside
for st. Paul and st. George islands, as they'll remain closer to
the storm for a longer duration.

Then, as one storm exits the region to our north, a new system
quickly moves in on its heels. This next feature will be much
more compact in size, but it'll also tap colder air aloft that
will get ingested into the storm from siberia. This allows for a
much steeper lapse rate environment to develop. As a result, we
expect the precipitation to have a more vigorous showery type of
appearance. The models also show some modest instability
developing, with lifted indices down to -2 and sbcapes of 150 to
300 j kg. This should be sufficient for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop.

The bigger story will be a return of sustained storm force winds
for a good portion of the bering sea, with some winds reaching
hurricane force near the southern flank of the low. Given the more
compact nature, wave heights are anticipated to be lower, as they
top out around 35 feet.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Bering sea aleutians: models continue to show discrepancies for
the synoptic setup in the bering in the Thursday timeframe. In any
case, there continues to be indication that a double barrel low
will set up in the bering, with one center near CAPE newenham and
the other center in the northeast bering. It's tough to say which
will be stronger, but models have shown a slight trend deepening
the bristol bay CAPE newenham low. This would likely result in
some gales in the southern bering and eastern aleutians Thursday.

Expect mixed seas with combined wave height in the 15 to 20 foot
range... Subsiding Friday. A series of disturbances will likely
rotate around the northeast bering low, thus areas of showers and
small craft advisory conditions are likely through the end of the
week.

Gulf of alaska: an upper low will cross the akpen Thursday and a
surface low will develop near kodiak island. The range of
solutions is a bit broader than ideal... The main question is how
far north the low propagates. It's possible that it will bring
gales to the southern outer waters Thursday. Or, it could track
far enough south that stronger winds will be concentrated in the
north pacific. Either way, elevated winds are likely out of
kamishak bay as pressure drops in the gulf. The pattern looks
generally benign in the gulf by Saturday, but model discrepancies
compound so it will be important to monitor the forecast.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7)
Details in the long term remain murky, as models continue to
struggle with the preceding evolution of post-typhoon hagibis.

However, there are some general trends apparent. Low pressure is
likely to settle in the bering sea (or perhaps centered off the
west coast) through early next week, and cold air advection in
north flow around the west side of the low will continue showery
unstable conditions over the bering aleutians. The location of the
low center is uncertain, but if it sets up near the west coast,
precipitation and increased southwest winds are likely in its
southern periphery. High pressure in the low levels will persist
over northeastern alaska, leading to cold, generally dry
conditions inland. However, enhanced cyclogenesis is likely as
modified cold, dry air originating in eastern siberia spills into
the north pacific. Thus, expect a series of lows to approach the
gulf from the west. This will likely bring precipitation and
increased cloud cover to the north gulf coast, possibly making it
inland.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Hurricane force wind warning: 412
storm warning: 173, 177-179, 181, 185 411, 413, 414.

Gale warning: 131, 132, 138, 155, 165, 170-172, 174-176, 180,
351, 352.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Mo
southcentral alaska... Bb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pd
marine long term... Mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 12 mi79 min ENE 18 44°F 1000 hPa34°F
HMSA2 12 mi27 min ENE 17 G 22 44°F 997.6 hPa34°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 27 mi55 min 47°F1000.3 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 33 mi49 min 48°F2 ft
APXA2 39 mi64 min ENE 8 42°F 1002 hPa28°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 43 mi49 min N 15 G 17 43°F 1000.4 hPa (-3.8)37°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 57 mi49 min NE 26 G 30 46°F 999.3 hPa (-3.3)35°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK17 mi1.9 hrsENE 810.00 miFair45°F36°F71%1002 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE3NE6NE7NE8E8NE7NE4NE6N6NE6NE6N4CalmNE3NE3E5E4NE4CalmCalmNE7NE8NE11
1 day agoNE4N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN3NE5NE5N4NE3E3E4SE3E5SE4NE7
2 days agoNW10N16
G21
N6NW5N5NE4E6E6NE3NW3NW5NW6N6N5E4CalmCalmNE4E8--E7E9E6E4

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.