Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Halibut Cove, AK

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 4:52AMSunset 11:18PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 2:18 AM AKDT (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:48PMMoonset 4:01AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 638 Pm Akdt Tue Jul 16 2019
Tonight..SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft except 4 ft near the inlet.
Wed night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft except 5 ft near the inlet.
Thu and Thu night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft except 5 ft near the inlet.
Fri through Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Halibut Cove, AK
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location: 59.51, -151.22     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 170023
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
423 pm akdt Tue jul 16 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A large upper level low moved into the western gulf and is
tracking slowly eastward across the gulf. A surface low over the
northern gulf is tracking westward over the top of the upper low.

Steady rain out ahead of this low is spreading west-southwest
across the northern gulf and southern kenai peninsula. An upper
trough extending westward from the low center is producing
showers over portions of bristol bay. A second short-wave just to
the west is producing a few showers and thunderstorms just off the
kuskokwim delta coast. Otherwise, the remainder of southcentral
and southwest alaska started out the day with a mix of Sun and
clouds and mostly dry conditions. As the surface heats up this
afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
beginning to pop up, particularly along inland mountain ranges.

The weather is quiet out west, with widespread clouds and patchy
fog dominating the bering sea and aleutians.

Model discussion
The models remain in good agreement with large scale features.

There are some minor differences in details of pattern on Friday
as an arctic trough digs southward across the northern half of
the state. There is uncertainty in the southern extent of this
trough and how much it will affect the southwest and southcentral
alaska. Thus, forecast confidence for showers and thunderstorms
on Friday is low.

Aviation
Panc... With most of the shower activity to the south over the
kenai peninsula this afternoon and evening, expectVFR conditions
to prevail, with perhaps just a passing light rain shower. The
wind forecast for this evening is a little tricky. With a meso-
high overtop of the gulf low and lower pressure inland, this
favors development of a weak turnagain arm wind. However,
pressure gradient difference between anchorage and talkeetna
is small, so think most of wind will remain south of terminal.

Have included a lighter south wind in the taf.

Offshore flow will dry things out on Wednesday. However, with
a fairly robust northerly flow, could see some showers and
thunderstorms track from inland to near the terminal late
Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Fire weather
Thunderstorms will remain mostly isolated in nature today as we
remain in a cooler, more stable air mass. This will change
tomorrow as offshore flow develops on the back side of the low
exiting across the gulf. This will lead to warmer and drier
conditions (at the surface) across most of the southern alaska.

This will also lead to greater instability during the afternoon
and evening hours, leading to an increase in showers and
thunderstorms, particularly over inland portions of southcentral.

Storm motion will carry storms southward toward the coast in the
late afternoon and evening. Thus, could see a storm just about
anywhere in the mat-su.

On Thursday, southwest alaska will stabilize under a building
ridge. While there may still be a few showers along the
mountains, it looks too stable for thunderstorm development.

For southcentral alaska, the warming drying trend will continue.

The big difference from Wednesday will be storm motion will be
much lighter. Thus, expect most of the shower and thunderstorms
to remain along and near the mountain ranges.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A gulf low is slowly moving eastward this evening with an
attendant retrograding shortwave trough moving west along the
immediate coastline. This feature is spreading a swath of rain and
showers from the southern kenai to cordova. This feature will
impact kodiak island tonight as well. Inland, mostly dry
conditions with warmer temperatures developed today, with isolated
thunderstorms favoring the talkeetna mountains and wrangell
mountains. Wednesday, the upper low shifts east and this will
develop an offshore flow pattern which will result in quick
warming and increased thunderstorm threats. Interior locations are
favored as usual, but with the northeast steering flow, these
storms may move into valley locations including anchorage in the
evening.

The flow aloft slackens Thursday and will likely be the warmest
day of the week. More thunderstorms will develop by late
afternoon, but given the weak flow, these will likely stay moored
along the higher terrain and nearby foothills.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Thunderstorm potential remains across southwest alaska this
afternoon and evening as shortwaves continue to rotate on the
backside of the low that has moved over the gulf. These shortwaves
along with clearing skies and instability will allow storms to
form along the alaska range and kuskokwim valley later today.

Easterly steering flow will allow any storm development to move
towards the y-k delta.

Southwest alaska will remain in a showery pattern through
tomorrow as high pressure continues to push in over the bering. A
drier pattern will move into the area, along with cooler
temperatures over the next few days as high pressure builds in
from the west. Fog and stratus will remain a concern over the
coastal areas, but there is less confidence in how far inland it
will spread.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Stratus and patchy fog will remain across much of the bering sea
and the aleutians over the next few days as the ridge builds over
the area. This could possibly bring more persistent fog as
atmospheric conditions become more stable under the ridge pattern.

Other areas of concern will be bristol bay and gap winds along
the akpen tomorrow night into Thursday, which could reach small
craft advisory level winds.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Expect an overall west to northwest flow around 15 to 20 kts with
waves 3 to 7 feet across the bering through the end of next week.

Localized areas of gusty small-craft winds through the bays and
passes of the pacific side of the akpen remain a possibility into
Thursday.

For the gulf, westerly winds and wave heights are expected to
remain below small-craft criteria through the end of next week.

Pockets of northwesterly gale force winds are possible across the
barren islands and southern coast of kodiak island on Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Models keep the pattern locked in for the long range. Ridging
will continue to strengthen across the bering through the weekend.

This will keep clouds and general northwesterly winds in place.

An arctic trough will traverse the northern half of the state, and
cross atop the bering ridge over weekend. This will help to bring
in clouds and some rain across the y-k delta and drop daytime
temperatures.

Farther east and over southcentral, afternoon showers with the
occasional clap of thunder will be a staple across the mountains
Thursday and Friday. Daytime temperatures will begin to slowly
climb as h85 temperatures jump from +6 to +11 to 14c across the
area. While temperatures are rising, they will continue to be
above normal through the weekend, but will be nowhere near the
record heat experienced earlier in the month. Unfortunately, the
dry conditions will continue, despite an occasional afternoon rain
shower.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Seb
southcentral alaska... Ja
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ah
marine long term... Ss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 12 mi49 min N 1.9 54°F 1002 hPa52°F
HMSA2 12 mi27 min N 2.9 G 5.1 52°F 1003 hPa47°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 27 mi49 min 51°F1003.2 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 33 mi49 min 52°F1 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 43 mi49 min S 6 G 8 53°F 1004.2 hPa51°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 57 mi49 min ESE 5.1 G 6 53°F 1004.6 hPa52°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK17 mi26 minW 310.00 miOvercast53°F53°F100%1003.7 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E5E5SE4SW7SW5SW5SW5SW9W12W10W6SW5SW4CalmE3NE5W3
1 day agoS3--CalmN4N5NE5E5E7NE9N5CalmE6NE7E8NE8E8E5E33S4CalmCalmNE3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE4E3CalmCalmNE3NE45E5NE8E6E5E9E6E7E6E5CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.