Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Halibut Cove, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 9:04PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 5:51 AM AKDT (13:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:43PMMoonset 5:49AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 340 Am Akdt Tue Apr 7 2020
.small craft advisory tonight...
Today..NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 4 ft.
Tonight..N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
Wed..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
Wed night..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Halibut Cove, AK
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location: 59.51, -151.22     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 071254 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 454 AM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A vertically-stacked low positioned over Bristol Bay this morning is responsible for snow showers for areas along the Alaska Peninsula and the Southwest coast. Southcentral remains under clear and dry conditions with no major weather features impacting the area, allowing for the early morning temperatures to drop into the teens or single digits for inland locations. Looking south of the Alaska Peninsula, satellite imagery spots the next surface low in the North Pacific that will be the key player in the next round of moisture lifting northward to Kodiak Island this afternoon. Out west, an upper level ridge with the associated surface high pressure continuing to build over the western Aleutians and Bering, including the Pribilofs, which will keep a quiet weather pattern early today.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models have come into much better agreement with the upcoming storm heading into the Gulf of Alaska this morning. This has increased confidence in snow potential and strong winds for Kodiak Island starting this morning through early Wednesday morning. However, the Canadian model is keeping the track of the storm farther west over Kodiak Island, thus have thrown this solution out.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Thursday night) .

A major storm moving into the Gulf today will bring widespread strong winds and heavy precipitation to the Gulf of Alaska and Kodiak Island, while Southcentral will see lesser impacts on the northern periphery of this system. A strong short-wave approaching from the west has already induced a tap of deep moisture over the north central Pacific. As this short-wave reaches the western Gulf midday, cyclogenesis will ensue southeast of Kodiak Island. The upper trough has a neutral tilt and jet structure is not favorable for explosive development. However, the magnitude of low level baroclinicity is impressive and do expect the low to strengthen as it tracks northward across the Gulf. Also, high pressure and arctic air currently in place across the region will help maximize pressure gradients and lead to formation of a barrier jet along the Gulf coast.

The low will pass roughly 140 miles east of Kodiak Island. While the heaviest bands of precipitation typically found on the back side of a low will remain offshore, expect upslope flow and upward vertical motion from the upper trough to produce periods of heavy snow. In particular, the prevailing strong northeast low level flow this afternoon and evening will favor Kodiak City and vicinity for heavy snow. This flow can be concerning for precipitation type, as winds coming off the Gulf bring in shallow above freezing air. However, the air mass in place is cold enough to support snow and the intensity of precipitation will tend to keep it all snow. There may be a mix of rain at times right along the immediate coast, but expect mostly snow out of this storm. With temperatures near or above freezing, blowing snow should not be a big threat, through heavy wet snow and 45 mph of wind will lead to a similar result: significantly reduced visibilities. With all of the above in mind, have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch for Kodiak to a Warning.

As the low develops the downstream ridge will amplify, which will then cause the upper trough to lift northeastward as it crosses the Gulf. Thus, expect the low to track to around Middleton Island tonight then to near Yakutat on Wednesday. As the low passes south of Cordova, they will likely see a period of snow and wind. For the most part, strong offshore flow ahead of the storm will tend to maintain dry air in the low levels and limit precipitation amounts across the Prince William Sound area. Snow will move into portions of the Copper River Basin tonight through Wednesday, though the upper trough (and best forcing) will quickly track into Canada and any snow that does fall will be light.

Conditions will quiet down across Southcentral and the Gulf as high pressure builds back in Wednesday night through Thursday night. An arctic air mass will remain in place, so temperatures will continue to run a little below normal, particularly for nighttime lows. Abundant sunshine during the day Thursday will help warm temperatures up to near normal.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A compact low tracking north of the Alaska Peninsula will merge with a stronger low entering the western Gulf this morning. As such, up to an inch of light snow is possible across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay coast. Gusty northwesterly winds are likely this evening south of the Alaska Peninsula as the aforementioned low moves south of Kodiak Island. Isolated snow showers will remain possible over the Kuskokwim Delta through this evening under a weak trough. Upper level ridging will build by Wednesday, bringing partly cloudy skies across the region. A warm front will move into western Alaska by Thursday, brining increased cloud cover and warmer temperatures. However, light snow will still be possible across the Kuskokwim Delta as daytime highs are expected to remain below freezing.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

Snow showers will persist across the Alaska Peninsula, mainly east of False Pass, through early Wednesday morning in a cold, northwesterly flow. A weak upper ridge and associated surface high pressure will build across the central and western Aleutians Wednesday and Thursday brining more settled weather. This same high pressure will dominate much of the western Aleutians today before a series of fronts will track across the area bringing rain and gusty southerly winds Wednesday and Thursday. Snow showers are possible over the Pribilofs over this time period as well.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5). (Thursday through Saturday)

Bering Sea/Aleutians…

A 998 mb low just south of the Rat Islands Thursday afternoon will send an associated near gale force front into the west central Aleutians. This front will reach the Alaska Peninsula by Friday afternoon and looks to remain just under gale force. The associated low moves into the northwest Bering as another low and associated front approaches the western Aleutians from the North Pacific.

Gulf of Alaska…

A very strong area of high pressure centered over the Copper Basin will keep the gulf dry with light winds for Thursday and Friday, before a near gale force front approaches the southern Gulf on Saturday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7). Model guidance remains in good agreement on the upper level pattern Friday into Saturday as an upper level ridge dominates most of the mainland of Alaska. This will continue the theme of a warming trend in temperatures with each day being warmer than the previous. Overall, a warmer and dry pattern for the mainland. Beyond Saturday, some differences are beginning to emerge that weren’t quite evident in the models yesterday. Model guidance is now hinting at a storm system over the North Pacific south of the central Aleutians being drawn northward that may undercut the ridge and bring a possible period of unsettled weather out there for the second half of next weekend. Model guidance then really spreads out beyond Sunday night of next weekend with the GFS showing a more amplified ridge while the other model shows a flatter weaker ridge moving in behind the aforementioned storm system. An upper level trough is expected to be present over eastern Russia and into the North Pacific Sunday night through Monday showing a potential storm system moving northward. This may bring a period of unsettled weather and increase in winds to the Aleutian Chain and the Bering during this time. However, the exact track and strength of this feature is still yet to be determined with diminishing forecast confidence beyond Sunday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Storm Warning 171. MARINE . Gale 121 125 127 130 132 136-39 150 165 414. Storm 119 120 131 351 352. Heavy Freezing Spray 160 180 181 185 414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . ALH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AP MARINE/LONG TERM . MV/PD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 12 mi19 min SE 5.1 G 8 29°F 1016.1 hPa16°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 27 mi51 min 39°F1018.5 hPa (-1.1)
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 43 mi21 min E 11 G 11 29°F 1018.3 hPa17°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 57 mi21 min E 7 G 9.9 33°F 1018.1 hPa19°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK17 mi58 minNE 510.00 miFair24°F15°F68%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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W11W8W7W9W9W11NE4N3NE3NE6NE5
1 day agoSW12W17
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2 days agoW10NW4W6CalmW7SW6S5SW5W7W7W6W11SW5E3NE3CalmCalmW7W8W8S3E3CalmSW12

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.