Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Halibut Cove, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 10:00AMSunset 3:45PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 7:58 AM AKST (16:58 UTC) Moonrise 3:09PMMoonset 8:09AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 359 Am Akst Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory today...
Today..NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft...highest near the inlet. Rain.
Tonight..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Thu..NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri through Sat..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Halibut Cove, AK
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location: 59.51, -151.22     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 111437 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 537 AM AKST Wed Dec 11 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The upper flow is dominated by a cold upper trough over the central Bering Sea, an upper level ridge axis which is building across Southern Mainland Alaska, and a large occluded low moving north into the Gulf of Alaska. A deformation zone aloft is sandwiched in between the North Pacific low and the cold upper trough over the Bering Sea, and this feature is already moving/spreading precipitation into Bristol Bay and the western Alaska Range. At the surface, westerly cold air advection and near gale force winds dominate most of the Bering Sea with a stronger gale force front moving north through the Gulf of Alaska in association with the NPAC low. This is promoting mostly offshore flow across the southern Mainland coasts, which is also promoting dry weather over Southcentral and interior locations. Beyond some patchy fog and patchy stratus (more extensive over the Copper Basin), weather remains much quieter than recent days/weeks.

MODEL DISCUSSION. The numerical model guidance is in excellent agreement with the large scale synoptic pattern as well as the sensible weather impacts over land and marine through Saturday. Forecast confidence is high.

AVIATION. PANC . There remains a slight chance that fog or IFR stratus reforms at the terminal this morning, but that threat seems to be decreasing as higher clouds cover and weak northerly flow is limiting cooling over Knik Arm and across Anchorage. Any fog would likely be short-lived and it is more likely that VFR conditions prevail, along the with less than 12 kt northerly winds.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). A broad area of low pressure will slowly slide northward from the North Pacific into the Gulf of AK. This system will dominate the weather across the area for the next couple of days. It will create cyclonic (counter-clockwise) flow across the entire Gulf and into the Gulf Coast. These winds over the marine zones will be the strongest today (40-50 mph) before slowly diminishing Thu and into Fri. They will remain rather strong the north Gulf Coast (barrier jet region) and down through Cook Inlet. The general pressure gradient will continue to switch to offshore through the day today. This should help any fog/low stratus to dissipate as drier air feeds into the area. Several waves of energy will spin around this system as well. Each one will bring more rain from Kodiak Island up through Western Prince William Sound. Nearly all inland locations will remain downsloped thanks to cross-barrier flow, so expect mostly dry conditions to persist.

By late Thu-Fri, the vertically stacked low will draw closer and closer to the coast. As it does so, some models are hinting at a slightly stronger wave of energy working up from Cordova through the Copper River Basin. This looks to be the next best chance for some precipitation to move inland. Even that system still looks very weak with only minimal snow accumulations at best in the Copper River Basin.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

The main weather phenomena across Southwest Alaska today is a deformation band that is setting up over the Alaska Peninsula and into the Southwest coast. Most areas in interior Bristol Bay will see rain as this warm system moves in, with heaviest precipitation amounts along the coast west of Dillingham. Meanwhile, areas farther north in the Kuskokwim Delta will see mostly snow or a wintry mix, with possible freezing rain, extending from coastal areas inland towards Bethel. This band will shift slightly westward throughout the day over the eastern Bering. A showery pattern will remain on Thursday through Friday as the deformation band sticks around, but it is less certain if it will be positioned over inland locations or the water.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

Cold air advection over the western Bering will help keep small craft advisory winds in the forecast through Thursday morning. Looking towards the east, a strong North Pacific low will help keep strong winds across the eastern Bering. The area of highest winds will be over the Alaska Peninsula which could cause typical northerly gap winds. Synoptic scale gale force winds south of the AK Peninsula are also expected through Thursday morning when the low begins to exits this region. While the eastern Bering starts to see winds diminishing by Thursday afternoon, the next system begins to enter the western Bering and Aleutians.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

. Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters .

A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will move from the North Pacific on Friday to near Atka by Saturday morning. This feature will send a frontal boundary into the south central Bering Sea during Saturday morning, with the low bottoming out near 960 mb. Some sustained gales will likely accompany these features, with gusts just short of storm force likely, especially out of bays and passes. This system then moves off to the east southeast by Sunday afternoon.

Given a long fetch length, look for seas to build into the 20 to 25 feet range south of the Aleutian Chain during the forecast period. For the remainder of the region, winds look to remain below gales with seas less than 15 feet expected.

. Gulf of Alaska .

An area of low pressure will move into the southwestern Gulf by Friday morning, with sustained gales developing for the eastern Kenai Peninsula coast . eastward towards the Copper River Delta. Sustained gales are also likely across the southern Gulf. This low then slowly reaches Kodiak Island Saturday while weakening, before moving into southwest Alaska on Sunday while dissipating. As a result, winds area wide will decrease for to small craft criteria near the coast on Saturday, and remain below headlines for Sunday.

As for your waves, the look to be highest across the eastern half of the outer waters, where they'll peak in the 20 to 25 feet range Friday, dropping further for the weekend.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

Models have come into better, though not perfect agreement for the long term. Expect a continued active pattern over the Aleutians through the end of the weekend, while quieter weather will persist over Southcentral. Friday, a low in the western Gulf of AK will continue to swing a series of weak fronts toward the North Gulf Coast, bringing periods of precipitation through the end of the weekend. Precipitation will be concentrated on southeast facing slopes, particularly on Kodiak Island, the Kenai Peninsula and the Alaska/Aleutian Range. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Yukon and interior AK will strengthen, and conditions will trend colder over inland areas of the Southern Mainland.

Out west, a strong low south of the central Aleutians will swing an occluded front across the chain and generate a healthy round of precipitation over the Aleutians and likely into the Southwest Mainland Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation chances look highest in the Bristol Bay area, with the Kuskokwim Valley/Delta likely staying drier in offshore flow. However, it's hard to have much certainty this far out and with run-to-run model inconsistencies. Another low will approach the western Aleutians Monday, bringing another round of precipitation and active weather.

In short, expect temperatures to trend colder through the long term, especially for interior areas. With each system, precipitation will progress from the Aleutians toward Southcentral.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gales 119 120 130 131 132 136-139 150 155. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . JA SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MSO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . ALH MARINE/LONG TERM . PD/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 12 mi26 min E 11 G 16 47°F 987.9 hPa35°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 27 mi58 min 45°F989.7 hPa (-2.4)
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 33 mi58 min 45°F3 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 43 mi28 min NE 18 G 21 48°F 989 hPa34°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 57 mi28 min NE 45 G 56 44°F 985.2 hPa43°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE13
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E9
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G12
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G29
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E12
G22
E14
G20
S11
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S16
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NE18
G29
NE22
G28
NE17
G31
NE17
G23
NE18
G26
NE16
G24

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK17 mi65 minNE 8 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F30°F52%990.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7S4SE5E3E9E12E13E9NE8NE7NE7NE10NE11NE6NE8NE9NE9NE9N4E14NE11E10
G16
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NE8
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1 day agoE23
G35
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G31
NE15NE14NE11NE10SW9S10
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NE6NW3SE6CalmE8E6CalmN4
2 days agoCalmNE3E3NE5NE5NE8NE7NE10NE8NE14NE16
G21
NE16NE15
G25
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G29
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G39
E20
G31
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G33
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G41
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G35

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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