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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri through Sat..N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 020121 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 421 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A low center in the Gulf is headed east toward the Southeastern Panhandle, increasing clouds and maintaining some hit and miss showers near Cordova and skirting the entrance of Prince William Sound. Lingering precipitation is expected for Kodiak for the next few days. With the location of the low and high pressure over the Copper River Basin, a tightened pressure gradient along the eastern Chugach mountains to the coast is allowing for outflow and gap winds along the northern Gulf coast, but especially through the Copper River Delta and Thompson Pass. Some drifting is possible over the roadways, but there are no expectations of reduced visibility at this time. This general weather pattern is expected to last through this weekend.

The next system to move into the area will likely arrive Monday with a notable increase of precipitation. The general trajectory northward is reasonably depicted and fairly good consensus toward the northern Gulf into midweek. Small differences are for its passage inland with implications that cause a wide spread in potential precipitation and snowfall totals, especially for the eastern Kenai and western Prince William Sound. Warmer air is expected at the onset of precipitation too, but cold air will quickly follow.

rux

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday)...

A generally unsettled but relatively low impact pattern is set to continue across the Bering Sea and Southwest for the next several days. A broad upper trough still encompasses most of the outlook area, with several smaller features rotating around this region of weak cyclonic flow in place. A compact, weakening low earlier north of Cold Bay has since drifted into Nelson Lagoon, and this low is still strong enough to support westerly winds around 30 kts on the Pacific side of the southern AKPen. To the north, a stalled frontal zone and weak deformation band of snow is still drifting across portions of Bristol Bay and up across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Farther west, a much larger gale force low is now centered north of Attu and Shemya.

Looking out into the weekend ahead, the low currently sitting near the AKPen should weaken and fill in completely later on Saturday as it drifts near or just north of the AKPen. Areas of light snow will continue with the banding already in place between central portions of Bristol Bay and the western half of the Middle Kuskokwim Valley. This snowfall looks a little less impressive compared to earlier indications, but a general 1 to 3 additional inches of accumulation will be possible along an axis running roughly from Koliganek to Sleetmute and Aniak through Saturday afternoon. On Sunday, it's looking likely for another area of light snow to set up in a similar fashion as an area of low level convergence and lift sets up east of a trough drifting into the Kuskokwim Delta. This will develop a bit farther to the west, with another 1 to 3 inches of new snowfall likely for spots including Pilot Point, Dillingham and Aniak. Snow should mostly begin to taper off on Monday as colder air begins to filter in as northerly flow sets up to the northwest of a strong low entering the Gulf.

Out across the Bering Sea, the general showery and unsettled pattern we've seen for the past several days is set to continue for the foreseeable future. The gale force low currently north of Shemya will progress east towards Adak on Saturday, then dive south of the Aleutian Chain on Sunday as a shortwave ridge builds into the far western Bering. Another shortwave trough and attendant low will swiftly advance into the western Bering as it progresses east on Monday, sending another round of more numerous rain and snow showers along the western half of the Aleutian Chain. Cold air advection and surface pressure rises behind this trough will help support another round of west to northwest gale force winds expanding east along the western Aleutians through Monday evening.

-AS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
Tuesday through Friday

Models and ensembles start in good agreement through Wednesday, but diverge through Friday, reducing forecast confidence. The upper level longwave trough extends from Eastern Siberia across Southwest Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska with closed centers over Eastern Siberia and the Gulf of Alaska. Changes in the overall wind flow over Eastern Asia show the two centers melding into a single center along the Western Alaska Coast by Thursday. Ridging into the Western Bering gains slight to moderate amplitude through the forecast period.

The most active weather will occur with the Gulf low as it approaches the Southern Coasts. Widespread precipitation begins over Southeastern Alaska and develop over Southcentral through Friday. This low will generate a Easterly barrier jet with areas of gale force winds along the Gulf Coasts, beginning with the Southeast on Tuesday, North Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and developing towards Kodiak Island for Thursday. The Western portions of this low brings gale force winds from the Eastern Aleutians along the Alaska Peninsula, diminishing Thursday. As the Gulf low moves inland, gales will spread from West to East over most of the Bering through Friday. Cooler temperatures bring mostly snow to the Western parts of the state.

Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

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