Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Halibut Cove, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Currently, cold temperatures and relatively dry conditions are present over much of the Southwest mainland as weak ridging remains in place. Meanwhile, two lows are present with the first west of the Pribilof Islands and the second just south of the Alaska Peninsula. The lows are bringing a large swath of gale force winds to the Central and Eastern Aleutians. Precipitation is also falling over the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. By Friday afternoon, a band of precipitation will make it over much of Bristol Bay. However, the Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley will remain mostly dry. By Friday night into Saturday morning, the lows will merge and move into the Gulf of Alaska.
Behind the lows is a strong ridge, which will decrease wind speeds and precipitation chances in the Eastern Aleutians and the Southwest mainland.

Behind this ridge is a strong low near Attu Island. The low's front brings a line of precipitation and small craft to gale force winds to the Western Aleutians. This front will eventually make it to the Central Aleutians by Saturday afternoon. More trouble arises as a strong, compact North Pacific low swings up into the Bering early Sunday. This low will join up with the aforementioned front and will bring an area of storm force winds and moderate to heavy precipitation to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula by late Sunday morning. This low will then track northward due to a blocking ridge over the Gulf of Alaska. Due to the warm air advection associated with this low, snowfall will eventually transition to a bout of freezing rain mixed with snow over the Kuskokwim Delta coast and the Bristol Bay coast early Sunday as the front moves onshore. With recent snowfall, freezing rain that falls may create difficult travel conditions. Another potential concern with this low is the potential for coastal flooding.
However, due to a lower tide cycle and limited fetch, storm surge is expected to be minimal, but some minor flooding is still possible. Due to these potential threats, a Special Weather Statement has been issued detailing the impacts. There is still some uncertainty with the track and strength of this low, so depending on what scenario plays out, more or less impacts will be seen.

-JAR

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Southcentral will be under an upper level ridge before a strong North Pacific system moves in from the southwest and displaces the ridge into Canada. A broad upper level low becomes established over the central Bering. Surface lows are embedded along the front and rotating around the pivotal feature in the Bering, merge by Monday afternoon. Gales to storm-force winds and heavy precipitation are expected across the southern Bering Sea, including the Aleutian Island Chain and Pribilofs before before weakening Monday afternoon. This will be quickly followed by the front of a second North Pacific system, which moves into the southern Bering by Tuesday morning. The parent low moves from over Kamchatka into the western Bering by Thursday morning. The exact path of the system remains uncertain due to poor agreement between the major global models. A 970 mb surface low embedded along its front crosses the Alaska Peninsula Thursday morning, bringing more gale to storm-force wind and heavy rain across the Alaska Peninsula and the Southwest part of the state.



AVIATION

PANC...Patchy fog currently prevails around Anchorage with some occasional visibility reductions and low/IFR ceilings. This is expected to clear up later this morning. VFR conditions and light winds will then persist.