Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Madawaska, ME
May 15, 2024 2:58 AM EDT (06:58 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 4:35 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 11:26 AM Moonset 3:19 AM |
FXUS61 KCAR 150410 AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1210 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front moves into the area overnight, then stalls over the region through Friday. High pressure builds down from the northeast Friday night through Saturday night, then slides to the east on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
12:10 AM Update...
Based on regional and upstream observations, decided to delay the onset of fog until after 06z. Satellite data shows some possible patchy fog over the waters. However, there is no sign of the fog advecting on to land at this time. Kept fog in the forecast later tonight as some could still develop without advection. No changes to PoPs as isolated to scattered showers are present across the area.
Previous Discussion...
Weak cold front currently approaching from Quebec province will move into the region overnight. Expect mainly cloudy skies along with isolated to scattered showers. Patchy fog is expected across northern and central areas overnight, with areas of fog expected Downeast. Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 40 to around 50 degrees. Just minor adjustments to forecast database at this hour.
Cold front will slide into central areas in the morning and gradually wash out. This will provide a focus for shower development in the afternoon. Depending on how many breaks can occur in the cloud cover, potential exists for isolated thunderstorms to develop along boundary after 18z over the Central Highlands.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A series of northern stream shortwaves cross the area as a surface frontal boundary remains stalled across the region, before dissipating during the day on Friday.
The result will be a period of unsettled weather, with the best chance for any precipitation along and to the north of the frontal boundary. This should focus showers mainly along and north of a Bangor to Woodland line Wednesday night and Thursday, then along and north of a Dover-Foxcroft to Danforth line Thursday night and Friday. Showers should be less numerous in both extent and coverage Thursday night and Friday than before hand as the surface boundary gradually weakens then dissipates.
It appears that there could be sufficient instability to continue a few rumbles of thunder into the early evening hours over portions of the Central Highlands Wednesday evening, consistent with the convective allowing models. At this time, would expect more of a local enhancement of rainfall with any thunder vice anything strong/severe.
Lows Wednesday night should be around 10 degrees above normal, highs on Thursday near to a few degrees above normal, lows Thursday night 5-10 degrees above normal, and highs on Friday around 5-10 degrees above normal.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The region will be on the backside of a deep layered ridge Friday night, giving way to northern stream shortwave ridging building in Saturday through Sunday. More than likely it should be dry, however with some uncertainty on whether a surface boundary could exist over northern portions of the area, do have pops for isolated to scattered showers, with highest pops over far northern zones. If there are any showers during this time frame, they will be of the hit and miss variety, and far more likely to miss than to hit at any given location.
There is some uncertainty on timing with the next system - for now the ECMWF seems on the fast end of things and the CMC on the slow end of things -so for now mainly slight chance pops Sunday night and mainly chance pops on Monday/Monday night. Most guidance agrees the system exits to the east Monday night. There is some indication that a surface cold front passes with this system - so did introduce a slight chance of thunder Monday afternoon/evening across portions of the North.
Do have some pops in on Tuesday in case the slower CMC idea is correct. Given low model certainty - its probably better to have more extensive pops in terms of coverage than actually needed until the timing issues are resolved.
Temperatures should be above normal Saturday night through Tuesday.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR currently at the Aroostook county terminals, but expect MVFR to develop after 06z in patchy fog, with IFR possible vcnty KFVE 08Z to 14z Wednesday. VFR develops 14Z-16Z all terminals on Wednesday. Light S wind tonight becoming variable early Wednesday.
KBGR/KBHB...VFR currently is expected to give way to developing fog and MVFR/IFR after 05z,(low to moderate confidence) and low confidence LIFR KBHB vcnty. MVFR develops 14z to 16Z, then VFR there after.
Light S wind tonight, then light and variable wind on Wednesday.
SHORT TERM: Wednesday Night-Thursday Night...MVFR or lower possible in any heavier showers or fog.
Friday...Mainly VFR, with low chance of MVFR at northern terminals. Winds SE 5-15 kts.
Friday Night-Sunday...Most likely VFR, with a very low chance of MVFR.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels overnight and Wednesday. Visibilities will be reduced in areas of fog late tonight.
SHORT TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters Wednesday night through Sunday should limit winds to up to 10 kt. Seas should be 3 ft or less Wednesday night through Thursday night, then increasing swell could bring seas up to 4 ft Friday through Sunday.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1210 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front moves into the area overnight, then stalls over the region through Friday. High pressure builds down from the northeast Friday night through Saturday night, then slides to the east on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
12:10 AM Update...
Based on regional and upstream observations, decided to delay the onset of fog until after 06z. Satellite data shows some possible patchy fog over the waters. However, there is no sign of the fog advecting on to land at this time. Kept fog in the forecast later tonight as some could still develop without advection. No changes to PoPs as isolated to scattered showers are present across the area.
Previous Discussion...
Weak cold front currently approaching from Quebec province will move into the region overnight. Expect mainly cloudy skies along with isolated to scattered showers. Patchy fog is expected across northern and central areas overnight, with areas of fog expected Downeast. Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 40 to around 50 degrees. Just minor adjustments to forecast database at this hour.
Cold front will slide into central areas in the morning and gradually wash out. This will provide a focus for shower development in the afternoon. Depending on how many breaks can occur in the cloud cover, potential exists for isolated thunderstorms to develop along boundary after 18z over the Central Highlands.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A series of northern stream shortwaves cross the area as a surface frontal boundary remains stalled across the region, before dissipating during the day on Friday.
The result will be a period of unsettled weather, with the best chance for any precipitation along and to the north of the frontal boundary. This should focus showers mainly along and north of a Bangor to Woodland line Wednesday night and Thursday, then along and north of a Dover-Foxcroft to Danforth line Thursday night and Friday. Showers should be less numerous in both extent and coverage Thursday night and Friday than before hand as the surface boundary gradually weakens then dissipates.
It appears that there could be sufficient instability to continue a few rumbles of thunder into the early evening hours over portions of the Central Highlands Wednesday evening, consistent with the convective allowing models. At this time, would expect more of a local enhancement of rainfall with any thunder vice anything strong/severe.
Lows Wednesday night should be around 10 degrees above normal, highs on Thursday near to a few degrees above normal, lows Thursday night 5-10 degrees above normal, and highs on Friday around 5-10 degrees above normal.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The region will be on the backside of a deep layered ridge Friday night, giving way to northern stream shortwave ridging building in Saturday through Sunday. More than likely it should be dry, however with some uncertainty on whether a surface boundary could exist over northern portions of the area, do have pops for isolated to scattered showers, with highest pops over far northern zones. If there are any showers during this time frame, they will be of the hit and miss variety, and far more likely to miss than to hit at any given location.
There is some uncertainty on timing with the next system - for now the ECMWF seems on the fast end of things and the CMC on the slow end of things -so for now mainly slight chance pops Sunday night and mainly chance pops on Monday/Monday night. Most guidance agrees the system exits to the east Monday night. There is some indication that a surface cold front passes with this system - so did introduce a slight chance of thunder Monday afternoon/evening across portions of the North.
Do have some pops in on Tuesday in case the slower CMC idea is correct. Given low model certainty - its probably better to have more extensive pops in terms of coverage than actually needed until the timing issues are resolved.
Temperatures should be above normal Saturday night through Tuesday.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR currently at the Aroostook county terminals, but expect MVFR to develop after 06z in patchy fog, with IFR possible vcnty KFVE 08Z to 14z Wednesday. VFR develops 14Z-16Z all terminals on Wednesday. Light S wind tonight becoming variable early Wednesday.
KBGR/KBHB...VFR currently is expected to give way to developing fog and MVFR/IFR after 05z,(low to moderate confidence) and low confidence LIFR KBHB vcnty. MVFR develops 14z to 16Z, then VFR there after.
Light S wind tonight, then light and variable wind on Wednesday.
SHORT TERM: Wednesday Night-Thursday Night...MVFR or lower possible in any heavier showers or fog.
Friday...Mainly VFR, with low chance of MVFR at northern terminals. Winds SE 5-15 kts.
Friday Night-Sunday...Most likely VFR, with a very low chance of MVFR.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels overnight and Wednesday. Visibilities will be reduced in areas of fog late tonight.
SHORT TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters Wednesday night through Sunday should limit winds to up to 10 kt. Seas should be 3 ft or less Wednesday night through Thursday night, then increasing swell could bring seas up to 4 ft Friday through Sunday.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
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