Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Homer, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Today through Friday)...

The persistent cold northerly flow continues over Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea. Generally, much of interior Southwest Alaska and the western Bering Sea will continue to stay dry, while the Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska Peninsula, and eastern Aleutians will contend with snow showers and blowing snow as shortwaves track southwards around the ridge and across western AK and the eastern Bering Sea. Gusty northwesterly winds across the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians have decreased since this morning and will continue to do so through tonight. A shortwave dropping out of the northern Bering this evening will bring a renewed push of light snow to the Kuskokwim Coastline, Nunivak Island, and Alaska Peninsula.

This system will round the top of the ridge before tracking south across the Kuskokwim Delta this evening through the overnight hours, bringing light snowfall to Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta through Wednesday night. While winds and snow amounts associated with this system are fairly unimpressive, conditions will still be favorable to see periods of mild blowing snow and reduced visibilities along the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak Island. As this system tracks south tonight, expect another round of snow for the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through tonight into Thursday. The airmass behind this system doesn't look nearly as cold as what is in place right now, thus, winds will be weaker, temperatures/wind chills more moderate, with less heavy freezing spray for marine areas. Snow showers across the Kuskokwim Delta will be reinvigorated again Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a deeper, more defined upper level wave takes a similar track across the eastern Bering and across the AKPen. Snow showers along the AKPen and eastern Aleutians will continue through Friday as northerly flow persists and the blocking ridge out west remains.

-JH/CL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The long-term forecast begins late Saturday with the persistent upper-level ridge over the western Bering and Aleutians remaining firmly entrenched over the region. Downstream, a positively tilted upper-level trough digs southeast, with an embedded shortwave over the Interior elongating as it reaches the Southern Mainland. With the upper-level trough axis draped over the Alaska Range and Alaska Peninsula, diffluence and a strengthening southerly flow ahead of the trough axis will likely allow for both a surface trough/low and moisture from the Gulf to be lifted northward across coastal Southcentral late Saturday night into Sunday. How these features interact, the amount of moisture, and timing of any precipitation is still fairly uncertain; however, there is the potential for light snow across portions of interior Southcentral with steadier snow and wind for coastal locations.

Another complicating factor will be a secondary upper-level trough digging south on the heels of the first for Sunday. This feature looks more potent in recent model runs, digging south a bit farther west than the first trough. If this solution holds, this second trough would likely help further enhance the surface trough/low over the northwestern Gulf and draw up more moisture in the form of snow for Southcentral and Kodiak Island through Monday. Moreover, this trough will usher in yet another round of arctic air and gusty northerly winds into Southwest Alaska.

Uncertainty grows by the start of next week as to how quickly this trough closes off into an upper-level low as it moves south over the Gulf. If this feature does move quickly into the Gulf, any snow will likely follow suit and taper off across the Southcentral coast as the arctic airmass moves in. If the trough lingers, expect snow to linger with a slight delay in arrival of arctic air and strongest of gap winds.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and winds under 10 kts will persist through the TAF period.