Saturday, February22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Homer, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:22AMSunset 6:04PM Friday February 21, 2020 9:53 PM AKST (06:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:37AMMoonset 2:45PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 340 Pm Akst Fri Feb 21 2020
.small craft advisory through Saturday...
Tonight..SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow showers.
Sat..W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Widespread snow showers.
Sat night..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
Sun and Sun night..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon through Tue..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homer, AK
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location: 59.64, -151.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 220118 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 418 PM AKST Fri Feb 21 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A large upper level low is centered on eastern Russia and has a trough extending through the Bering Sea toward the western Aleutians. Southwest flow aloft is over mainland Alaska. The jet stream is running well south of the Aleutians and makes landfall south of Southeast Alaska which is keeping the whole state in a colder airmass.

At the surface, the main low is located near Prince William Sound with colder air moving off the ice edge in the Bering Sea into Southwest Alaska and eventually filtering up Cook Inlet from the south. Another low is south of Attu and is in a favorable location in the trough and along the jet stream to intensify over the next day.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models remain in good agreement through the weekend. However there is a good bit of variance in solutions for the low moving into the Gulf of Alaska region on Monday. This low will likely remain somewhere over the Gulf so the forecast issues are more with the marine areas and right along the Gulf coast for Monday and beyond.

AVIATION. PANC . Snow will persist through the night and into Saturday morning. It looks like ceilings and visibility may improve a little toward morning but VFR conditions look unlikely until at least noon Saturday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

An upper level trough centered over the Barren Islands will continue to slowly lift north and east over the Kenai Peninsula. This feature is beginning to advect much colder air from Southwest Alaska. This has already started the gusty westerly, offshore flow through gaps and passes along Shelikof Strait, the Barren Islands and into Kachemak Bay. With a moist environment remaining from the last warm front, the cold air advection is helping to maintain widespread light snow along the Kenai Peninsula, the Anchorage Bowl, across the Mat-Su Valleys and into Prince William Sound.

A 986 mb low will close off from the trough and proceed to the southeast Saturday morning, crossing the Kenai Peninsula and entering the northern Gulf Saturday night. As this low propagates to the southeast, offshore winds will reach their peak. Cold air advection, combined with a strengthening pressure gradient across the AKPEN waters and into Cook Inlet, look to produce storm force winds across the Barren Islands late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Precipitation chances remain likely for portions of the Kenai Peninsula, Susitna Valley and Prince William Sound through this time.

The low will be driven towards the Panhandle as the upper level trough flattens and weakens due to a zonal flow pattern aloft that will propagate the trough from the west to the east Sunday afternoon. This will strengthen the pressure gradient over Prince William Sound and will increase offshore flow through Thompson Pass, the Copper River Delta and the Valdez waters as cold air drains from the Copper River Basin. Precipitation chances for Southcentral begin to wane with likely chances remaining over the windward side of Kodiak, the Chugach and the Kenai Mountains, the Upper Hillside and into Sutton and Eureka as upslope flow becomes favorable for these areas to continue to receive snow. This will remain until dry air overtakes Southcentral Sunday night, thereby eliminating most chances for precipitation across the region.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday) .

The snow shower activity ongoing across much of Southwest Alaska this afternoon is expected to diminish from west to east overnight tonight. Thus, areas along the Alaska Range will take the longest to clear out. Clearing skies are expected from west to east, along with diminishing winds as high pressure builds across Southwest Alaska. Much of this weekend will feature bright, sunny, but cold conditions over much of the area. Periods of cloudier weather are possible within that time, but most of the area will see plenty of sunshine. All threats of precipitation through Monday will end with the conclusion of the current ongoing snow shower activity.

The main forecast concern this weekend therefore will be the cold temperatures. The air mass building in will allow some areas of the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley to be unable to reach zero for highs, while lows at night in those same areas drop into the teens to 20 below. A strong low and associated front well south of the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island on Monday will cause increasing offshore north to northeasterly wind flow during the day, but associated cloud cover currently looks to remain from King Salmon south. By Monday, some moderation of the cold air mass, despite the offshore winds, should bring temperatures above zero for most of Southwest Alaska, which should preclude any wind chill concerns.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday) .

High pressure over the eastern Bering currently will move eastward into Southwest Alaska this weekend, and strengthen as it does so. meanwhile, a strong low will approach the central and western Aleutians on Saturday. A track a bit further south than previous runs suggest the winds may not be quite as strong across the islands than previous forecasts. Any gales should remain south of the chain. Rain and snow showers are possible through the islands with temperatures in the mid 30s, but any snow accumulations will be minor. On Saturday night into Sunday, the low quickly drops south and all effects will diminish. A weak front will approach the western Aleutians on Monday, but other than gusty southeasterly winds, and some rain showers, the effects from this feature will also be minimal. A low over the southwestern Gulf will cause increasing northeasterly winds around the Alaska Peninsula on Monday. Differences in track will determine if that area sees any precipitation.

Elsewhere across the Bering, a quiet period with light winds and cold temperatures are expected through Monday. A few compact lows are possible on Saturday, but will have minimal impact. The strengthening high pressure over interior Alaska will lead to gradually increasing easterly winds across much of the Bering by Monday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Mon through Wed). The main low will be in the Gulf of Alaska region or just a little south of there during this period. Gales are expected with this low with a decent chance of storm force winds. There is a bit of uncertainty with this system as its projected track and strength remains uncertain.

The Bering Sea region is a bit more settled as generally westerly winds will be over the area with the potential for occasional gales.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7). Next week will start off with well below normal temperatures over most on southern mainland Alaska with high pressure over the state and a low to the south of the Gulf of Alaska. This low will make some headway northward through the middle of next week which will bring most temperatures back to seasonal levels for the middle to late parts of next week. There may be some periods of snowfall in Southcentral with this low monday through Wednesday timeframe, but at this time and snow should not make it much farther west than just west of the Alaska Range. However, there is a bit of uncertainty to the track of this low so the areas of snowfall are subject to change.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . WSW 121. MARINE . Storm 130. Gales 130-132 138 139 176-178. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CK SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . JW MARINE/LONG TERM . EZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 7 mi84 min W 23 20°F 992 hPa17°F
HMSA2 7 mi32 min SW 20 G 31 20°F 991.1 hPa15°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 17 mi54 min 36°F994.1 hPa (+2.7)
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 32 mi54 min WSW 28 G 35 19°F 994.2 hPa (+3.1)13°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 55 mi54 min WNW 7 G 19 21°F 995 hPa (+2.8)12°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK2 mi61 minSW 22 G 280.50 miSnow Freezing Fog and Breezy20°F17°F89%993.4 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK16 mi61 minS 70.75 miLight Snow18°F12°F81%994.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW10SW8SW17
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1 day agoE17NE16NE14NE14NE15E13NE6NE5N5N5NE5NE4CalmS4NW3SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS4W554W9W11W10W9
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S9S5S6S7E7SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.