Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homer, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 9:55PM Saturday August 17, 2019 11:05 PM AKDT (07:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:55PMMoonset 6:44AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 331 Pm Akdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Tonight..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homer, AK
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location: 59.64, -151.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 180018
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
418 pm akdt Sat aug 17 2019

Analysis and upper levels
An anomalously strong upper level ridge remains parked over the
bering sea. A strong short-wave dove southward across the southern
mainland overnight through this morning and is now continuing
southward across the gulf of alaska and southeast alaska. The
passage of this short-wave combined with a low level cold front
has led to strong gusty northerly winds across much of the region.

As is typical, the strongest gusts are being observed through
mountain passes gaps and along coastal bays. This includes cook
inlet, seward resurrection bay, and from valdez down into prince
william sound. Valdez airport reported a very impressive peak wind
of 66 mph this morning. While the air mass is cooling, night-time
temperatures remained elevated due to the arrival of winds, so
high temperatures today won't be much cooler than yesterday.

However, it is noticeably drier and the air may have a bit of a
"fall-like" feel to it.

The bering sea and aleutians are mostly quiet under the influence
of the ridge. Areas of fog and stratus off of the southwest alaska
coast are rotating westward across the eastern bering and along
the north side of the alaska peninsula. A weak front strung out
along the west die of the ridge is bringing areas of rain and
small craft winds to the western aleutians.

Model discussion
Models are in good agreement with handling of large scale
features over the next few days and forecast confidence is above
average. The biggest challenge in the short-term will be details
of the wind forecast as winds fluctuate due to diurnal and upper
level forcing influences.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist. The wind forecast is quite
challenging. Would expect some decoupling of the surface from the
boundary layer as we lose sunlight and surface temperatures begin
to cool this evening. This will cause winds to trend downward, but
based on the location of the airport right near cook inlet, do not
think they will completely decouple and go light. In any case,
northerly winds will then strengthen around noon in response to
passage of another upper level short-wave.

Fire weather
Winds will slacken a bit tonight with the loss of daytime heating.

However, expect will keep a little bit of wind in most areas.

Thus, rhs will struggle to recover overnight, and where they do it
will likely be for a short period of time. A second short-wave
moving through Sunday morning will help restrengthen winds and
cause rhs to drop back down. Winds will finally lighten up Sunday
night and temperatures will cool quite a bit (with 850
temperatures in the -2 to +2 degrees c range), allowing rhs to
fully recover.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
With high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east,
northerly winds continue to dominate southcentral alaska. A strong
shortwave pushing through the area this morning brought gusty
winds throughout the area. As that shortwave has tracked south of
the area winds will diminish somewhat overnight tonight. On Sunday
another shortwave will move through from north to south ramping
up the northerly winds again. Winds will diminish Sunday night
leaving light winds and dry conditions into Tuesday. This setup
will also allow cooler air to move in over the area. This will
allow temperatures to drop back closer to normal values for Sunday
through Tuesday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
Strong upper level ridging over the eastern bering combined with
breezy north to northeasterly offshore flow will continue to bring
warm weather and mostly sunny skies to southwest alaska through
the weekend. An upper level trough over the bering strait Monday
morning will dig south to the kuskokwim delta through Monday
evening. The trough will then continue slowly south Monday night
forming into a cutoff upper low centered over northern bristol bay
Tuesday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
Upper level ridging over the eastern bering will shift gradually
to the north and west through Sunday pushing the frontal system
currently stretched over the western aleutians into the north
pacific. Upper level ridging will persist over the bering through
Monday and then weaken and shift further to the northwest Monday
night and Tuesday. A frontal system associated with a large
vertically stacked upper low south of the western aleutians will
remain in the north pacific through Monday and then send a
weakening frontal system up over the western and central aleutians
Tuesday.

Marine (days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)
On Tuesday... A ridge extending across the gulf keeps relatively
weather quiet through Wednesday while low pressure over the
western bering brings active weather. This low to the west will
bring small craft to gale winds before tapering off significantly
late Wednesday night. There is high uncertainty heading into
Thursday, but the main focus will be around low pressure
developing across the gulf which may bring gale force winds.

.Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

the forecast beginning next Wednesday starts out active with
energy merging together from low pressure over the southwest and
shortwaves racing across the aleutians to alaska peninsula. The
overall pattern is expected to remain drier and warmer than normal
across the southern mainland as low pressure generally tracks
south of the mainland through the end of the week. A new ridge
developing across the north pacific builds toward the western
bering Thursday into Friday. Models are struggling with handling
low pressure which moves to the gulf during this time period;
however, they are in relatively good agreement with the ridge. The
inherited grids were kept for today's package due to the
uncertainty on the track of low pressure mid week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 127.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Sb
southcentral alaska... Dk
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jr
marine long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 7 mi96 min NNE 12 66°F 1019 hPa44°F
HMSA2 7 mi24 min ENE 8 G 14 62°F 1019.9 hPa45°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 16 mi36 min 57°F1 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 17 mi48 min 53°F1020.4 hPa
APXA2 20 mi81 min NE 5.1 60°F 1021 hPa49°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 32 mi36 min NE 17 G 18 57°F 1020.3 hPa47°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 55 mi36 min NNW 16 G 26 63°F 1019.9 hPa42°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK2 mi2.2 hrsN 710.00 miFair68°F37°F33%1020.7 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK16 mi2.2 hrsN 010.00 miFair59°F46°F64%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN6CalmW5NW8N56
G16
NE4
G14
CalmCalmSE4S5SE6SE8NE10N8
G15
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G28
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G20
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1 day agoCalmNE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW8SW10SW10SW10W7SW8SW7SW8SW9SW6SW3CalmCalm
2 days agoSW6CalmNE4NE3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmE4CalmSW5SW7SW8SW8SW10W10SW11SW9SW7SW5Calm3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.