Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Homer, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:32AMSunset 11:36PM Monday July 6, 2020 3:39 PM AKDT (23:39 UTC) Moonrise 10:47PMMoonset 4:26AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 408 Am Akdt Mon Jul 6 2020
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tonight..SW wind 10 kt becoming in the evening variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homer, AK
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location: 59.64, -151.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 061326 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 526 AM AKDT Mon Jul 6 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A rather disorganized but weak weather pattern exists over our forecast area this morning. A low pressure center exists over the Alaska Peninsula and is moving toward Kodiak Island. This low is producing rain showers as it goes. A weak stretched out stationary front exists to the northeast of this low, providing cloud cover and light rain from Interior SW to the Lower Cook Inlet and Southern Kenai Peninsula. To the east of this front northerly flow exists over Southcentral AK and high pressure that has been in place is being slowly squeezed out the area. A shortwave trough can be seen on satellite dropping south in this northerly flow. As usual, much of the Bering Sea and Aleutians are enveloped by low ceilings, light rain, and fog. Overall, the pattern looks busy on satellite but there aren't any big weather producers out there.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models seem to be handling weather features better today. The past few days models had been falling apart with respect to their agreement after about 48 hours. Today they are holding together better, with at least decent agreement in synoptic features through the short term. Some difference in placement and timing exist with features. However, we now have enough agreement to have a solid picture of the weather pattern. Therefore, increasing confidence in the forecast for the short term.

AVIATION.

PANC . MVFR ceilings will lift to VFR conditions later this morning. Expecting MVFR ceilings to reform tonight. Light winds will persist.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2:Today through Tuesday) .

A surface low and frontal system will move into the northern Gulf today. This system is bringing periods of light rain to Kodiak Island and southern parts of the Kenai Peninsula. As this system pushes quickly southeast, rain will end by this evening. Southeasterly flow north of the warm front will continue to bring cloud cover to coastal areas and inland to the Anchorage Bowl, southern Susitna Valley and Matanuska Valley. This cloud cover and marine influence will produce cooler, near average early July temperatures today. Some of the inland areas may see clouds decrease this afternoon with daytime heating which will allow temperatures to approach the upper 60s to low 70s mainly in the Susitna and Matanuska valleys.

Otherwise, a slow moving upper low over the Yukon is spinning off weak shortwaves which will enhance convective activity across the Copper River Basin and the northern Susitna Valley. One weak shortwave is apparent on satellite in east central Alaska and will move south this afternoon kicking off showers and thunderstorms in the Copper River Basin. These should decrease later this evening with loss of daytime heating and as the wave moves south of the area.

Tuesday looks to be slightly warmer for most of Southcentral as low level flow becomes northwesterly with offshore flow. Another shortwave will bring a healthy chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Talkeetna Mountains and the Copper River Basin in the afternoon. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two are possible across the Chugach and Kenai Mountains on Tuesday as more unstable air is expected. However, very dry air near in the low levels and slightly weaker instability further south will make thunderstorms harder to come by.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

The overall pattern is becoming more stable as a cold front moves across Southwest Alaska today, bringing a cooler and more stable airmass to the region. Due to the increase in stability, thunderstorms are highly unlikely over the next 3 days. The primary forecast challenge will be fog and low stratus as northwesterly flow will advect this fog and low stratus from the Bering into Southwest Alaska. MOS data shows little to no dewpoint depression at various locations across Southwest Alaska, thus fog and low stratus are likely, especially in coastal locations.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

The overall pattern is benign as upper level ridging will continue to build across the Bering/Aleutians. Winds will remain below gale force over the next 3 days. The main forecast challenge will be fog and low stratus. MOS guidance shows little to no dewpoint depressions, especially at nighttime across various locations throughout the Pribilof and Aleutian Islands.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday).

Models are in good agreement starting Wednesday afternoon with weak low pressure over the Gulf. However, there is less confidence in how strong the winds will be in the western Gulf to the Alaska Peninsula and whether this low pressure system will track back into the North Pacific or stay relatively stationary and weaken through Thursday evening. In any case, winds would remain low-end small craft advisory (GFS solution) or below over the Gulf during this time.

High pressure over the Bering will keep a relatively quiet pattern across this region. Some models are hinting at a weak low pressure system approaching the western and central Aleutians Friday from the North Pacific, but there is less certainty as to whether the associated front will move into the forecast area.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Thursday through Sunday).

Cloudy conditions are expected over Southcentral later in the week as upper level waves continue to move into the region. As usually expected in this pattern, models are having a difficult time with placement and timing of these waves through early Saturday morning. To the west, cloud cover and chances for rain showers will stay in the forecast as a front tries to move into the area, which will move eastward through Sunday. By Saturday afternoon, models are struggling on over overall upper level pattern of whether the upper level trough will stay over northern Alaska or if it will drop down over Southwest Alaska.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BJB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MSO/RC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . ED MARINE/LONG TERM . AH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 7 mi69 min W 8 49°F 1015 hPa48°F
HMSA2 7 mi27 min W 8.9 G 13 53°F 1013.8 hPa49°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 17 mi51 min 49°F1016.4 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 32 mi39 min Calm G 1 50°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.0)50°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 55 mi39 min Calm G 1 54°F 1017 hPa (+0.3)54°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK2 mi46 minWSW 87.00 miLight Rain57°F54°F90%1016.4 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK16 mi46 minN 38.00 miOvercast53°F51°F93%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W10W8SW9NW6W5W7W8W4SW5W4W3W5W3W4W3SW4W5SW4SW5SW6SW6SW7SW8
1 day agoW14SW13
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W12W10W6CalmW3CalmNE3CalmE3NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmS4SW7W10
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2 days agoW11W11
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SW11W10W8W6W4CalmCalmCalmE5NE4NE3NE4E5CalmCalmE33SW6W10SW6W9W10

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.