Tuesday, July23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homer, AK

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:07AMSunset 11:05PM Tuesday July 23, 2019 5:43 AM AKDT (13:43 UTC) Moonrise 11:06PMMoonset 11:28AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 355 Am Akdt Tue Jul 23 2019
Today..S wind 10 kt becoming sw 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..S wind 10 kt becoming sw 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homer, AK
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location: 59.64, -151.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 231337
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
537 am akdt Tue jul 23 2019

Analysis and upper levels
There is a ridge axis bisecting the gulf of alaska and
southcentral. There is an area of organized convection exiting the
yukon territory and entering the eastern mainland. A low with a
bent back occlusion is approaching the eastern aleutians and
another front is pushing across the bering sea.

Model discussion
The models remain in good agreement on the synoptic scale. They
are also in good agreement with moving the easterly wave in from
the copper river basin then across the southern mainland. The
trend is more convective.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Smoke from the
swan lake fire may be an issue again Tuesday morning.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
With the upper level ridge having shifted north such that its
axis runs from east to west from northwestern canada into
interior alaska and a low in the southeastern gulf, the pattern is
set up for easterly waves to start pushing into the area. The
first of these is currently pushing from the southern yukon
territory into the copper river basin. This wave should reach the
talkeetna, chugach and eastern kenai mountains this afternoon and
evening and then continue to the west over the susitna valley and
eastern kenai tonight through Wednesday morning. The results
initially will be widespread showers mixed with thunderstorms
changing over to more stratiform rain overnight and bringing much
of the area the first significant rainfall in quite a while. A
second easterly wave will follow a similar track Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday. A frontal system moving in from the
west will reach kodiak island Thursday night.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3: Tuesday
morning through Thursday night)...

southwest alaska will see a pattern shift today as two main
features drive the weather for the next few days. The first
feature of note is an inbound easterly wave. This upper level
feature is expected to traverse across southcentral and track
westward, reaching the foothills of the alaska range this
afternoon. This upper level wave will generate enough instability
to produce thunderstorms along the foothills of the alaska range.

There is potential for some storms to produce heavy rain and
frequent lightning.

The second feature is a front currently over the central bering
that will track eastward, moving inland over southwest Wednesday
morning bringing precipitation to the coastal areas. By Wednesday
night, a second front associated with a bering low lifts over the
southwest coast, bringing another round of more widespread precipitation,
gusty onshore flow, and cloudy skies. Expect generally cooler,
wetter conditions across southwest alaska through Thursday.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3: Tuesday
morning through Thursday night)...

an broad upper level trough over the bering will allow cloudy
skies, fog, and precipitation to continue this week. A front
approaching the pribilofs this morning brings southerly flow and
precipitation to the bering as it moves eastward, reaching the
southwest coast by Wednesday. Meanwhile this evening, an upper
level low embedded within the trough enters the western bering and
strengthens as it tracks eastward. This low will bring more
precipitation and gusty southwesterly winds. The low center will
approach the pribilofs Wednesday night, while the associated front
extends over the southwest coast. Expect westerly flow behind the
low with scattered showers and persistent low level stratus and
fog for Thursday.

Fire weather
Southcentral alaska... An easterly wave crossing the copper river
basin today will bring a mix of widespread showers and isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms to the area today through this
evening. The most abundant lightning will likely occur over the
talkeetna mountains and susitna valley as the wave pushes over
that area late this afternoon through the evening. A northeast to
southwest storm motion will allow some of the storms to track off
of the mountains and into mat-su valleys and anchorage area. On
the kenai peninsula there is also a potential for isolated
thunderstorms, although those are likely to form along and mostly
stay over the mountains. Overnight a more widespread stratiform
rain will develop over the eastern half of southcentral alaska,
bring a chance for wetting rains to many areas after midnight,
including those such as the western kenai and anchorage bowl which
will largely be downsloped through the evening.

Southwest alaska... The prime convective environment this
afternoon and evening is expected to be along the foothills of the
alaska range, extending as far south as iliamna. Wet
thunderstorms that form may produce heavy rain and frequent
lightning. With weak flow aloft, storms are expected to remain
nearly stationary.

Marine (days 3 through 5; Thursday through Saturday)
A low will move into the bering sea early Thursday bringing gusty
southwesterly winds to the pribilofs and bristol bay regions as
its center tracks over saint matthew island. Though winds look to
remain as small craft at this time, brief gale force gusts cannot
be ruled out. Winds will gradually diminish Friday and Saturday as
the low becomes vertically stacked and weakens over st. Lawrence
island. Overall confidence is moderate.

The flow pattern for the gulf will be more quiet over this time
period with high confidence of winds likely remaining below small
craft through the weekend.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7; Thursday through Monday)
Though still difficult to get specific, an active weather pattern
appears likely across southcentral late this week into early next
week. A broad upper level low will persist over the bering causing
a series of weak surface lows to track over the region. Thus,
there is high confidence of accumulating rainfall as well as
periodic gusty winds. Along with this, the upper level jet will
dip much further south. Combined with a surface cold front moving
through on Thursday, temperatures look to remain in the 60s into
next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ps
southcentral alaska... Jer
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ko
marine long term... Ap


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 7 mi73 min ENE 1 55°F 1014 hPa53°F
HMSA2 7 mi31 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 55°F 1014.2 hPa49°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 16 mi43 min 54°F1 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 17 mi55 min 52°F1014.5 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 32 mi43 min SSW 8 G 12 56°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.9)52°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 55 mi43 min Calm G 1 53°F 1015.4 hPa (-0.9)53°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK2 mi50 minN 08.00 miFair52°F50°F93%1015 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK16 mi50 minN 09.00 miFair53°F50°F89%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE3E4CalmCalmSW6W9SW8SW12W14W12W16W14SW12W10SW10W5NE4NE3E4NE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE4NE4NE4CalmSW6SW6W9SW9W7SW7SW6W7W8SW9SW10SW7SW4NE3NE3N3CalmCalmNE4NE4
2 days agoNE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W4W7W10W8W8W8W8W8W7W5CalmCalmNE5NE4NE3NE3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.