Saturday, April4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Homer, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 8:56PM Saturday April 4, 2020 7:26 PM AKDT (03:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:45PMMoonset 5:13AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 403 Pm Akdt Sat Apr 4 2020
.gale warning Sunday night...
Tonight..SW increasing to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
Sun..W wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft in the morning building to 10 ft.
Sun night..W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon..W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Mon night..W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Tue..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homer, AK
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location: 59.64, -151.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 050037 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 437 PM AKDT Sat Apr 4 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

There are two defining weather features for our forecast area today. This first is a high pressure system in the North Pacific whose ridge is pushing north into the eastern AKPEN. The other feature is a low centered just southwest of St. Lawrence Island and moving slowly northeast. The ridge of high pressure is just strong enough to force most of the energy north of our forecast area, but southwest AK is not escaping this system. In the upper levels, all of this is supported by a longwave trough digging south through AK and pushing high pressure south into the North Pacific. A band of energy is trapped between these two features and is moving through southwest AK. This setup is also creating on-shore flow into southwest Alaska and enhanced wind speeds for both southwest AK and the eastern Aleutians.

The ridge of high pressure is also keeping southcentral AK out of most of the weather. However as with SW AK, it is not pushing north far enough to keep weather entirely out. Therefore, cloud cover and small pockets of instability producing snow showers have been able to exist in Southcentral AK today.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models continue their run of good agreement in the short term. This is keeping forecast confidence high. One area of difficulty is in southwest Alaska, where they are having trouble picking up on precipitation coming off the Bering Sea. The forecast is being manually adjusted to account. Otherwise, models are performing well.

AVIATION. PANC . Some low level cloud cover will linger into the overnight hours, but VFR conditions are expected to persist. Winds will be picking up from the south overnight and be gusting 25-30 kts early tomorrow morning. Winds should subside midday tomorrow.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3; Tonight through Tuesday) .

The upper-level long wave pattern will begin to transition tonight as the ridge situated over the Gulf moves east and gives way to an upper-level low tracking from the northern Bering to interior Alaska. As it does, a moist, southwesterly flow will develop out ahead of an upper-level wave and associated cold front that will enter the western periphery of Southcentral Sunday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop overnight through early Sunday from Cook Inlet north to the Susitna Valley in advance of the front. In addition to gusty winds, areas of snow will develop along the front, with accumulating snow likely for areas north of Talkeetna (Broad Pass), Hatcher Pass, and the higher elevations around Prince William Sound. Enough warmer air will still be around on Sunday for precipitation to be a mix of rain/snow for lower elevations and areas along the coast. The front will continue east through Sunday with gusty west-southwesterly winds persisting across Cook Inlet, Kachemak Bay, and the Barren Islands. Strong westerly winds will also develop across Prince William Sound with winds gusting through favored bays and passes and rain changing back to snow as the front pushes through. Although winds are expected to diminish on Monday as the initial trough exits the region, a second, trailing shortwave should provide enough instability for a few lingering snow showers over the higher terrain.

Conditions trend clearer, drier, and cooler Monday afternoon through Tuesday as the upper-level trough axis slides east of the area and a weak ridge attempts to build over the region. The next frontal system then moves into the Gulf late Tuesday with the potential for precipitation and strong winds for Kodiak Island and the immediate Southcentral coast through Wednesday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday) .

Over the next 12 hours, there will be a significant pattern shift across Southwest Alaska. The relatively warm conditions will rapidly end as a powerful cold front sweeps across the area from west to east. Ahead of the front, temperatures are just above freezing in most locations across the Kuskokwim Delta. Conversely, highs got well into the 50s today south of King Salmon. Once the front moves through, temperatures will stay in the 20s across the Kuskokwim Delta with low to mid 30s expected further east.

Another effect behind the front will be a significant increase in the winds along with snow bands setting up in the very unstable atmosphere. This will begin tonight, and persist through the day on Sunday. Winds gusting as high as 65 mph are expected late tonight into Sunday morning. This is the result of a strong and powerful low moving into Norton Sound, with the wraparound behind the front accelerating as the low deepens. The combination of the strong winds and the snow bands that develop will lead to rapidly deteriorating conditions in portions of the Kuskokwim Delta, particularly north of Kipnuk. The snow bands will be localized. Thus, outside of them, conditions will remain very windy, with any previously fallen snow being blown around, but otherwise expect mostly cloudy conditions. Inside the bands, expect near whiteout conditions at times. Since the bands will be moving around, do not expect long periods of whiteout conditions, but persistent bands could cause visibilities to drop to a half mile or less. Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late tonight until Sunday evening. The worst conditions are expected at the coast, but the bands will be able to move well inland, so areas such as Bethel will also see periods of reduced visibilities in strong, gusty winds through the day Sunday.

The winds will begin diminishing Sunday night as a small area of low pressure moves near the Pribilofs. There is still significant uncertainty as to the eventual track of the low, but its relatively close proximity to the coast should keep most of the area mainly cloudy Monday and potentially into Tuesday, depending on how long it persists. Otherwise, expect well-below-normal temperatures to persist through the day Tuesday, with highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the single digits and teens.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday) .

A strong cold front near the Pribilofs this afternoon will rapidly move into Southwest Alaska this evening. Behind the front strong northwesterly flow of much colder air is producing widespread snow showers, which will persist over nearly the entire Bering Sea through Sunday. A low moving off the Kamchatka Peninsula moves into the western Bering Sunday afternoon, and strengthens as it moves over the Pribilofs Monday afternoon. There is significant uncertainty where it moves from there, but generally a slow eastward drift towards Southwest Alaska is expected. A large area of high pressure moves over the western Aleutians Monday, then gradually shifts east across the central Aleutians on Tuesday. A weak low moves over the Northern Bering Tuesday afternoon as a separate front moves into the western Aleutians on Tuesday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Tuesday through Thursday).

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

High pressure centered southeast of Adak Tuesday afternoon and low pressure to the northwest of Savoonga will create a tight pressure gradient across the northern Bering, where some sustained gales are possible. Further south and west, a front will approach the western Aleutians ahead of an incoming area of low pressure. The center of high pressure then moves to Dutch Harbor on Wednesday and into western Alaska for Thursday. This allows the front to trek eastward into the central Aleutians and Bering, with sustained gales possibly developing.

Gulf of Alaska:

A strengthening area of low pressure approaches the Gulf Tuesday evening, with a sustained gale force front preceding its arrival. As this low deepens further across the northern Gulf Wednesday morning, high-end sustained gales, with storm force gusts, are anticipated to develop. This low then moves ashore between Cordova and Yakutat Wednesday evening, with sustained gales continuing near the northern Gulf Coast. An offshore flow pattern develops on Thursday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Wednesday through Saturday).

Guidance is in fairly good agreement leading to high confidence on the long term upper-level pattern in the middle to later parts of next week. There will be an upper level trough over the mainland and a modest upper level ridge over the Bering. This will lead to cold temperatures over the mainland of Alaska with warmer temperatures over the Bering and Aleutian Chain. The upper level ridge over the Bering will slowly work towards the mainland Thursday leading to a warming trend. Beyond Thursday night is when the models begin to diverge on the upper level pattern and the placement of features. While the trend is there on both models for a warming trend, the degree to how strong this warming trend will be is still uncertain. This is leading to only low to moderate confidence in the forecast for temperatures Friday into Saturday of next week. The placement of features in the upper level flow is in question as one model has the upper level ridge further west and more amplified while another is less amplified.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory 155. MARINE . Gale 119 120 130 131 139 141 179 180 181 185 Heavy Freezing Spray 180 185 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . JW MARINE/LONG TERM . PD/MV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 7 mi35 min ESE 2.9 G 6 44°F 1012.9 hPa31°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 17 mi57 min 40°F1015.2 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 32 mi57 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 47°F 1016 hPa24°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 55 mi57 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 43°F 1016.3 hPa33°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK2 mi34 minE 310.00 miOvercast45°F30°F58%1015.6 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK16 mi34 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F32°F58%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW4CalmN3CalmCalmW3W4SW9W5W10NW4W6CalmW7SW6S5SW5W7W7W6W11SW5E3
1 day agoCalmCalmW5W5W7W5W5W6W6SW7W14W8W9W3W5SW5SW6S3SW4SW6SW8W9W7SW6
2 days agoN5CalmN3CalmN3NE5CalmE3SE7E7E10NE5E8NE6E7NE7NE6E7NE6------E4NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.