Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kachemak, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 10:05AMSunset 3:43PM Sunday December 15, 2019 11:20 AM AKST (20:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:14PMMoonset 11:59AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 319 Am Akst Sun Dec 15 2019
.gale warning today...
Today..E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Tonight..NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
Mon..NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
Mon night..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Thu..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kachemak, AK
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location: 59.67, -151.45     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 151354 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 454 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A large, mature low pressure system can be seen on satellite moving slowly northwest in the western Gulf of ALaska. Its occluded front is pushing north through Kodiak and towards the southcentral coast. This low is a closed low both aloft at 500MB and at the surface. High pressure still hangs on inland north of the low. The pressure gradient between the two is creating some gusty winds in the Susitna Valley south to the Kenai Peninsula.

Out in the Bering, a weak low spins over the eastern Aleutians, causing low clouds and rain there. There is a shortwave ridge currently over the central Aleutians, providing a brief break in the weather there. This ridge is sandwiched between the low to the east and the next big system that is just approaching the western Aleutians this morning. This low is another large and occluded low moving through the north Pacific. A triple point low can be seen via satellite beginning to form as it moves into our forecast area.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models continue to be in good agreement. Some disagreement exists with the low center position and movement of the low that is currently in the Gulf of Alaska. However, the disagreement is not enough to make much of difference in the forecast. Therefore, we are confident in the forecast through the next few days.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Southerly winds just above the airfield should diminish enough early this morning to eliminate low level wind shear.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A strong low south of Kodiak Island will merge with the low near Dutch Harbor this afternoon bringing the new low center over the Alaska Peninsula. The front associated with the Kodiak low is what will have the greatest impact on Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf region today through tonight.

There is a bit of warm air associated with this front which will keep precipitation all rain at lower elevations along the gulf coast. However, the low center pulling back to the southwest will keep this warmer air from penetrating too far inland. This will also allow cooler air from inland to change precipitation to snow over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. One of the bigger challenges for this forecast package was to determine the elevation at which the precipitation should go from rain to snow and if that will be low enough to bring the snow to the Sterling Highway in Turnagain Pass. At this time it looks like it should be mostly rain into this evening with any snow melting on contact with the ground. However, precipitation may quickly turn to snow overnight through Turnagain Pass.

By Monday, the merged low over the Alaska Peninsula from this afternoon will have weakened as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska. The front will also be much weaker, though it will remain along the north gulf coast. It looks unlikely for any significant precipitation to make it across the coastal mountains into inland areas over the next two days.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Active weather continues over Southwest Alaska today as a front associated with a complex low moves in from the southeast. Gusty southeasterly winds and rain are expected across the Alaska Peninsula today. Farther north over the Kuskokwim Delta, temperatures will be cold enough for snow. Current thinking is that as the front passes through later this afternoon, trace amounts of snowfall are possible for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. As the low drifts south Sunday night into Monday, winds will weaken and precipitation will taper off. Some scattered showers of mixed precipitation are possible Monday night into Tuesday over the interior areas of Bristol Bay, otherwise general offshore flow is expected to persist through Tuesday ahead of another front that moves in from the west by Tuesday evening.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A 970 mb low is still centered just north of Unalaska Island. It is starting to drift southward, and will eventually phase with a second low (located south of Kodiak Island and moving northward) late this morning. The biggest forecast update made overnight was to keep the boundary of strong westerly winds just west of Dutch Harbor. It has been a challenge to pinpoint exactly where the low center will track as models have struggled to resolve this.

This newly phased low will then move over the AKPEN and eventually into the Gulf, but not before generating some gusty northerly flow over the central and eastern Aleutians this afternoon. Temperatures will generally be warm enough for rain, though a brief change to snow cannot be ruled out over the central Aleutians later today as colder air gets pulled in from the north. The next storm in the Bering arrives over the western Aleutians this afternoon, spreading in another round of southerly gales over the central Aleutians Mon night into Tue morning. As the low center tracks eastward, reaching the central Aleutians by Tue morning, colder northerly flow on the backside will bring stronger gusts to the western Aleutians for Tuesday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5). The storm track during this period will be from the Aleutian Islands eastward to the Gulf of Alaska. High end small craft advisories to gale warnings are expected as this low pressure system moves through. Additionally, expect light to heavy freezing spray from Hooper Bay to Nunivak Island.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7). The global models are in decent agreement with the longwave pattern for north Pacific and Bering through Friday December 20th. At the onset of this forecast period there are two lows, one near Kodiak and a Kamchatka low. There is a ridge axis between the two systems. There are some minor differences with the timing of two different surface lows but the forecast intensity is only a few millibars off and the forecast track is very similar. Overall, the run to run continuity with these two lows has been decent. Expect these systems to move from west to east with the first storm tracking into the Gulf of Alaska and later towards SE AK. All the while, the second storm will head into the Bering with the frontal boundary pushing across the Aleutian chain. Again, for the Anchorage metro area the chances of snow in this forecast period range from zero to slight chance.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . STORM: 119 120 130 131 GALE: 125 132 136-139 141 155 160 165 170 172-178 351 352 411 413 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BJB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KO MARINE/LONG TERM . PJS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 5 mi28 min E 13 G 22 46°F 991.1 hPa36°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 21 mi50 min 993.1 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 37 mi50 min NE 16 G 22 44°F 992.9 hPa38°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 59 mi50 min ENE 42 G 51 43°F 990.8 hPa42°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK3 mi27 minNE 710.00 miLight Rain44°F37°F76%994.1 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK21 mi27 minENE 57.00 miLight Rain50°F37°F63%993.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE6NE8NE6N4NE7NE9NE9N6NE5CalmSW3NE6CalmCalmE7NE3CalmCalmCalmN4645SE15
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2 days agoNE8CalmNE5NE7S4NE4E7CalmE4CalmNE3NE3NE6NE7NE4NE4E8E11NE9NE8NE5E3NE7NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Alaska (2)
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Homer
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:27 AM AKST     18.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:59 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:14 AM AKST     3.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:58 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:01 PM AKST     19.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:02 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:14 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:45 PM AKST     -2.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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26.911.815.8181815.912.48.55.23.54.27.211.315.318.319.518.515.310.85.81.3-1.8-2.4

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Halibut Cove
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:34 AM AKST     18.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:58 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:10 AM AKST     3.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:57 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:01 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:08 PM AKST     20.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:13 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:41 PM AKST     -2.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.27.1121618.418.616.512.98.85.33.64.47.411.515.518.62019.11611.36.11.3-1.7-2.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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