Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kachemak, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 4:15AMSunset 11:46PM Sunday June 20, 2021 10:13 PM AKDT (06:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 1:08AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 346 Pm Akdt Sun Jun 20 2021
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu through Fri..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kachemak, AK
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location: 59.67, -151.45     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 210014 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 414 PM AKDT Sun Jun 20 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Active weather continues for the forecast area today. Low pressure is moving north through the western Gulf of Alaska and sending a frontal system into Southcentral AK. Rain and cloudy conditions can be observed on satellite and radar is association with this front. A trough wrapping around this low is moving east to west across Southwest AK, producing rain there. Foggy conditions are also present along the coast, making for particularly soupy weather for that region today. Much of the Bering remains quiet with typical summer weather of fog and sea stratus. In the Western Aleutians, a weak gale force low continues to track slowly east.

This is all being supported in the upper levels by a long wave trough encompassing our entire forecast area. Its western edge starts in eastern Siberia and it stretches east to a high pressure ridge over the Yukon. Two 500 mb closed lows exist within in the trough, one just south of Kodiak supporting the surface low in the western Gulf and the other just south of the Western Aleutians supporting the surface low there. A weak shortwave ridge is present between the two, reflected as the surface high over the Bering. Some weak 500mb troughs are working their way through this flow as well. All of these features are doing their part to help keep this pattern active.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

On the synoptic level, models are in good agreement in the short term. They continue to have some minor differences on smaller scales, especially with the easterly waves moving through mainland AK. Overall though, confidence in models is moderate to high.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Light rain and rain showers will continue through the day, though they are not expected to drop conditions below VFR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday afternoon) .

Showers/drizzle will gradually taper off across Southcentral through this evening as a front weakens over the region. Gap winds will likewise diminish given the weakening pressure gradient as the associated low moves inland. Precipitation will continue across the Copper River Basin through Monday downstream of an upper level low in the northern Gulf. Gusty southerly winds are also likely in this area during the afternoon/evening. Elsewhere, partial clearing is expected Monday into Tuesday with highs approaching 70 away from the coast. Cloud cover will increase again by Wednesday morning as a strong front enters the Gulf. At this time, its orientation would lead to downsloping in the lee of the Chugach Mountains, thus the heavier rain would be confined to the coast.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

At the onset of the forecast period, there is an occluded front south the of AKPEN and pair of upper lows, one near Bristol Bay and the other south of Kodiak. A series of short waves will continue to move across Southwest Alaska this afternoon through Wednesday. The aforementioned upper lows will get absorbed into the longwave pattern Monday night. Another closed low over the Aleutians will begin to kick shortwaves out of its circulation and into Southwest Alaska. Precipitation will be intermittent the next 72 hrs. Tuesday and Wednesday expect a subtle warming trend most notably for interior locations of SW AK.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

On satellite imagery there is a swath of fog in the central Bering, clear skies north of St Matthew Island, a few small breaks in cloud coverage over portions of the Aleutians and the Western/Central Aleutians are overcast. The remnants of an occluded front are east of Adak and the surface low is south of Attu Island. This feature is rapidly getting sheared apart. A few gales were detected on ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) just north of Attu Island. But this surface low is filling and losing the former robustness of its pressure gradient force. The remnants of this feature will bring more cloudy skies and precipitation to the chain.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday).

Models are all fairly consistent with the forecast, so we have moderate to high confidence in this forecast. Models continue to depict a North Pacific low merging with an Aleutian low south of the AKPEN on Wednesday. This low will cause a barrier jet setup with storm force winds down Shelikof Strait, east of Kenai and along Prince William Sound. Weak gales south of the AKPEN and around Bristol Bay and the southeast Bering near this low will also be present on Wednesday. 12 to 15 foot waves will be associated with the barrier jet and waves 12 feet or less south of the AKPEN. On Thursday this low will move north and west into the southeastern Bering near Cold Bay with high end small crafts. By Friday the low will weaken but remain near Cold Bay with winds small craft or less. Across the Gulf a fairly strong front will move north Wednesday into Thursday with gales ahead of the front. The gales will be mainly from the northern and western Gulf where the barrier jet will set up, and also down Shelikof Strait there is a chance of storm force winds near the Barren Islands. Waves are expected to be near 20 feet Wednesday across Shelikof Strait and lower across the open waters of the Gulf. There is some uncertainty on strength of winds as models differ, but good confidence that gales will occur. Late Thursday into Friday winds will decrease across the Gulf to small crafts or less with waves subsiding.

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday) .

The upper level jet stretches south of the Aleutians and into the southern Gulf Thursday and will amplify north into Southcentral towards next weekend as a low deepens over the Aleutians and a ridge builds across the Gulf next weekend. The main feature on Thursday and Friday will be a low near the AKPEN which will slowly move into the southeastern Bering with a front moving across the northern Gulf and onshore Thursday. This will keep much of Southcentral and Southwest Alaska in a cooler and wet pattern through Friday. On Saturday the pattern will shift as the low in the Bering moves northwest with another low tracking near the Aleutians. Meanwhile a ridge begins to build across the Gulf and Southcentral Alaska. This will lead to a warmer and drier pattern across Southcentral next weekend with continued cool and wet conditions for Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians. Overall confidence is good with the forecast as models are in decent agreement with major features.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BJB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AP SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . PJS MARINE/LONG TERM . RC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 5 mi43 min W 5.1 1006 hPa
HMSA2 5 mi31 min SW 4.1 G 7 52°F 47°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 21 mi55 min 47°F1006.5 hPa
APXA2 23 mi88 min NE 4.1 50°F 1007 hPa49°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 37 mi43 min NNE 7 G 7 50°F 1007.2 hPa50°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 59 mi43 min N 8 G 13 50°F 1005.9 hPa49°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK3 mi20 minN 010.00 miOvercast53°F50°F89%1006.9 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK21 mi20 minN 09.00 miLight Rain52°F51°F97%1006.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4W3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6NE4SE4SW4W5CalmW3S6SW3S4SW5SW4SW5CalmCalm
1 day agoW5W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmE3S5CalmSE44SE663S3SW54SW7SW4SW4
2 days agoN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE8NW3NE4N4NE8E7E6CalmSW6SW7SW6SW5SW5SW5W6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Alaska (2)
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Homer
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:19 AM AKDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:33 PM AKDT     15.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:21 PM AKDT     2.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:43 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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17.81612.88.84.71.4-0.30.12.45.99.813.215.215.413.811.17.74.72.93.35.79.413.617.2

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Halibut Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:14 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:15 AM AKDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:40 PM AKDT     16.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:17 PM AKDT     2.90 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:42 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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18.416.613.49.24.91.4-0.20.32.66.11013.515.615.914.511.684.833.55.99.713.817.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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