Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kachemak, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Skies continue to clear out over the Southwest Alaska mainland as some ridging builds in bringing drier air from the north. Wind speeds are still elevated, but will become light tonight. A strong ridge has built into the Bering and is allowing for less active weather across the Aleutians. However, a plume of moisture from the North Pacific is riding up and over the ridge and is bringing rainfall to Shemya through the Pribilof Islands and into the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN).

On Saturday, an upper level low drops southwards from Chukotka.
The low is taking a more eastward track than previously forecast and will interact with the plume of moisture riding around the ridge.
This means another round of light rainfall is expected for much of Southwest Alaska Saturday. For the AKPEN and the area east of Unalaska, this low will enhance northerly winds, especially through bays and passes, reaching just shy of gale force winds.
Also, heavier rainfall is expected in areas of upsloping winds over the Alaska Peninsula. Bristol Bay and inland areas of Southwest Alaska will also see an increase in wind speeds, but these will not be as strong as winds over the Alaska Peninsula. By Saturday evening, the low crosses the western Alaska Range and quickly moves into the Gulf, allowing winds and rainfall to subside. However, for the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians, rainfall will persist due to moisture plume remaining in place.

By Monday, a front looks to move into the Bering and start to flatten the ridge. This would bring a swath of precipitation into the Aleutians. Also, a trough drops into the Southwest mainland, bringing more rainfall to the area and increasing wind speeds along the coast.

-JAR/PA

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

By Tuesday, weak ridging persists over the Bering, with weak troughs in the southern and eastern Gulf of Alaska. This fairly inactive pattern will allow for less rainfall over the area and generally weaker wind flow through the region. By Wednesday and Thursday, the ridging shifts eastward and slowly flattens as the pattern over the Aleutians and Bering becomes increasingly more progressive. The broad weak trough over much of Alaska and the Gulf will help to return rain chances to Southwest by Thursday.
However, by Wednesday, uncertainty grows as model agreement degrades considerably. Temperatures are on track to stay below normal for late July for all of the Southcentral and Southwest Alaska in part due to rain chances returning, and near normal to above normal for the Bering Sea.

-CL


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and northerly light winds will persist.
Winds will pick up this afternoon gusting to 22 kts becoming less than 10 kts after 06Z this evening. Winds shift to westerly early tomorrow afternoon and then to southerly late tomorrow afternoon.

KM