Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 10:08 PM Moonrise 3:27 AM   Moonset 10:07 AM

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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - SW wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft.Thu - NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.Thu night - N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.Fri through Sat - N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.Sun - N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 012350 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 350 PM AKDT Wed May 1 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Cloudy conditions will continue across Southcentral through the end of the week and into this weekend as weak shortwaves move through. A low exits the Bering Sea and moves into the southern Gulf of Alaska on Thursday and its associated front pulls moisture right towards Kodiak, eastern Kenai Peninsula, and western Prince William Sound. The bulk of the precipitation will be in the aforementioned areas for Thursday and Friday before spreading eastward to include Cordova and Valdez by late Friday night. The next system is taking a more southerly track and moving a bit slower than shown in previous model runs that will delay rainfall to Valdez and Cordova until at least late Friday night.
Additionally, easterly flow near Seward will help keep rain lighter with lower amounts expected. Rain will be near continuous for Kodiak Island through much of Thursday. Rainfall amounts in Kodiak City should be around an inch to inch and a half, with higher amounts in the mountains. Downsloping easterly flow will keep the west side of the Peninsula and Anchorage largely dry.
Showery activity is possible today in portions of the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin but should remain light and brief.



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday night)...

A rapidly weakening low pressure system in the southeastern Bering Sea continues to push a fairly weak frontal boundary into Southwest Alaska this evening. Areas of light showers will persist for the Bristol Bay region tonight before coming to an end Thursday morning, as the parent low is absorbed by a stronger incoming trough entering the western Bering tonight.

To the west, a new low pressure system is set to begin moving over the western Aleutians by early this evening. The low will be preluded by a front on the eastern leading edge. The front will push quickly across the western-most Aleutians, reaching Adak by late tonight/early Thursday morning. Initially, gale-force southeasterly winds with light-to-moderate rainfall are expected to be produced along the front, gradually weakening to sub-gale and light rainfall by the time the front reaches Atka. By Thursday afternoon, the front will have reached Nikolski, and the parent low-pressure system will be entering the western Aleutians, bringing another round of rainfall. The front and low will continue advancing steadily across the Chain until the front reaches Southwest Alaska by early Friday afternoon. Notably, as the front crosses the Pribilof Islands late Thursday night/early Friday morning, there is the chance for some of the early precipitation to come down as a wet snow or a rain/snow mix. This is expected to be brief, and accumulated snowfall would likely melt by Friday afternoon. However, up to 2 inches of this wet snow is possible before shifting to rainfall.

-CL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Active, but not overly impactful weather, is expected for the long term forecast. Generally, expect widespread precipitation for the Southern Mainland as an occluding low dissipates in the northern Gulf. An upper low moving from the Arctic into the Bering Sea will bring a cool down for Southwest Alaska early next week.
By the latter half of Monday, this upper low phases with another low in the North Pacific, strengthening it as it moves towards the Southern Mainland through midweek. However, model agreement diminishes considerably around Monday, leading to lower confidence in the evolution of this system.

Diving into the details... Sunday begins with a broad longwave trough extending across much of Alaska. A vertically stacked low over Southwest Alaska will gradually move into the northern Gulf through Sunday. The low's front will bring steady rain along the north Gulf coast, with inland areas in Southwest and Southcentral staying much drier due to downsloping. Instead, these inland locations will likely see widespread showers due to robust vorticity associated with this upper low, with the potential for stronger convection Sunday afternoon and evening as an easterly shortwave transits the Copper River Basin. Otherwise, expect outflow winds to pick up Sunday across Alaska Peninsula and around the Gulf.

By Monday, a rather compact upper level low slides south from the Bering Strait into the Bering Sea, drawing down colder air for Southwest Alaska. While a bit chillier than what we're seeing now, overnight lows remain relatively high at around 20-30 degrees for Southwest Alaska. Precipitation generally tapers off across the region on Monday as the Gulf low dissipates and moisture remains relatively limited for the Bering Sea low.

By Tuesday, poorer model agreement leads to lower forecast confidence. The main point of contention between models is how the Bering upper low phases with an upper low moving towards the Aleutians from the North Pacific. For the forecast, have leaned towards the consensus where these two lows phase, leading to a strengthened surface low with stronger winds and higher moisture content as it moves towards the Southern Mainland for Wednesday.
The alternate scenario keeps the surface low weaker, with much less impactful weather expected. Neither scenario looks particularly hazardous, but we'll continue to monitor trends and refine forecast details in the coming days.

-KC

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds are expected to pick up again this afternoon and move over the terminal before diminishing tonight. Winds thereafter should remain light and become northerly by Thursday morning.

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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:27 AM AKDT     6.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:27 AM AKDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 05:26 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:54 AM AKDT     15.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:08 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:14 PM AKDT     1.88 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:06 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:53 PM AKDT     14.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ninilchik, Alaska, Tide feet

Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:17 AM AKDT     7.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:27 AM AKDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 05:26 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:54 AM AKDT     15.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:08 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:04 PM AKDT     2.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:07 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:53 PM AKDT     14.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Ninilchik, Alaska, Tide feet

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