Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ninilchik, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 10:56PM Monday July 26, 2021 9:33 PM AKDT (05:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:16PMMoonset 6:53AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 324 Pm Akdt Mon Jul 26 2021
.small craft advisory Tuesday night...
Tonight..S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..S wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed and Wed night..S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu through Sat..S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ninilchik, AK
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location: 60.12, -151.55     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 270044 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 444 PM AKDT Mon Jul 26 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The upper level pattern is active today with a ridge of high pressure building through the Western Gulf and into Southcentral AK. A weak low continues to spin in place in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska. Out west, a short wave trough is pushing through Southwest AK and strong northwesterly flow is behind it. At the surface, high pressure building into Southcentral is causing the typical summer low stratus to develop in the Western Gulf. It is also producing low stratus inland that is burning off in the afternoon. In southwest AK, the upper level trough is presented as a front at the surface that is producing light rain. Strong winds behind it are beginning to produce gap winds through the Aleutians. While it is an active pattern, much of it results in minor weather concerns and thus things are generally quiet.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are in good synoptic agreement through the short term. Some adjustments maybe needed for wind speed through gaps in the Aleutians and coastal areas of Southcentral Alaska. However, these adjustments will be minor and little adjustment needed away from model data, save for localized winds. Thus, high confidence in numerical data through the short term

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist. An MVFR stratus deck is expected to develop overnight. We are not forecasting a ceiling to develop at this time, however there is a chance that a ceiling could develop.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3).

The jet stream is highly amplified. There is a jet core extending from Kamchatka to the Seward Peninsula, a weak jet core south of Unalaska and another jet core pushing into British Columbia. Lower in the atmosphere at (500 mb) there is a weak ridge over the Copper River Basin, Anchorage and Kenai. All the while at 500 mb there is a closed low over the eastern Gulf and a broad closed arctic low from Kamchatka to the Chukchi Sea with multiple shortwaves embedded in it. By Tuesday, shortwaves propagate through the 500 mb high but they don't seem to have an impact on the sensible weather other than increasing cloud coverage. The models show dry weather for most of Southcentral tonight, Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the high resolution models are pinging into enhanced winds over the Barren Islands, Shelikof Strait, and Turnagain Arm.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday evening) .

Mostly cloudy skies will persist over the region this evening in a moist, onshore flow. A series of upper troughs will bring scattered showers along the northern portions of the Kuskokwim Delta on Tuesday. A weak ridge will build into the Bristol Bay area at the same time, leading to partial clearing. Benign conditions will continue over Bristol Bay into Wednesday under the ridge. A front will approach the Kuskokwim Delta coast by Wednesday morning and will slowly move onshore by evening. Winds will increase and are expected to be strongest along the immediate coast. Rain will continue over the area Thursday as the front remains nearly stationary.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday evening) .

A broad upper level trough and associated low over eastern Russia will lead to widespread rain tracking west to east across the northern Bering through Wednesday. While much of the Aleutians look to remain dry, gusty southerly winds out of bays and passes will develop Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday generally between Nikolski and Nelson Lagoon. Winds will diminish Thursday under another upper trough, with rain extending southwestward from Bristol Bay through the central Aleutians along a front.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5:Thursday through Saturday).

For the Gulf of Alaska, expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the Day 3 through 5 period. Conditions will generally be the same for the Bering Sea as well. However, some lingering gap winds will be present along the Eastern Aleutian Islands Thursday with a front moving through the area. We can also expect small craft advisories along the Southwest Coast as well.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Thursday through Monday) .

There is general agreement that longwave troughing maintains in the Bering Sea, with a more dynamic pattern over Southcentral AK. This longwave is really the anchor of the weather pattern, with high pressure giving way to more a transition setup for southcentral late in the week. Models are at least in decent agreement on the large scale pattern, with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF being a good starting point. This was coordinated with WPC so will be leaning on them for the long term forecast today. Overall decent agreement in the models on the synoptic scale, with specific features yet to be dialed in. So, moderate forecast confidence.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . PS SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AP MARINE/LONG TERM . BB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APXA2 29 mi48 min SSW 7 55°F 1015 hPa48°F
HMSA2 36 mi21 min WNW 6 G 8.9 57°F 47°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 37 mi63 min WNW 5.1 1014 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 40 mi123 min SSW 6 G 11 51°F 56°F1014.7 hPa
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 48 mi123 min 52°F1014.5 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK33 mi40 minW 810.00 miFair59°F45°F60%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E4E5S4W10W13W11SW14W12W9W10
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1 day agoCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmNE4E3E4CalmSW5SW8W13W14W13W13W12W11W8W7
2 days agoSW4S4CalmNE4NE3CalmNE3CalmNW4NW3CalmSE4SW5SW5W8W11W12W12SW14W11W10W7W5NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:15 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:16 AM AKDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:36 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:54 AM AKDT     20.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:24 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:39 PM AKDT     -2.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:46 PM AKDT     19.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.15.610.515.719.420.719.315.911.15.81.1-1.8-2.20.4510.615.719.119.918.31510.66.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:06 AM AKDT     1.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:15 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:54 AM AKDT     20.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:24 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:29 PM AKDT     -2.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:46 PM AKDT     19.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.66.211.11619.520.719.315.710.85.40.7-1.9-1.815.711.11619.219.918.314.810.35.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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