Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ninilchik, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The quiet weather pattern continues across the region through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. A weak Gulf low is bringing a low cloud deck to the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest with minimal precipitation chances. Longwave, broad troughing has been generating rain and snow showers across the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands, which is set to linger through early next week.
The system has also been advecting colder air across both the Bering and Southwest Alaska, which will keep most of the showers as a rain/snow mix. Given the weak northerly flow, and showery nature of the precipitation, breaks in the clouds and periods of sunshine are possible into early next week.

By Late Tuesday, a front connected to a North Pacific Low is expected to approach Shemya and the Western Aleutians bringing precipitation and easterly winds. Precipitation from this system would most likely be in the form of rain. There is a 20% chance of the Aleutian Chain west of Adak to see Gale force winds Tuesday night. Disagreement lingers in the long-term model ensembles with the track of this low. Some push the low northward, crossing the Aleutians by midweek enter the Bering north of the Aleutian Chain, while others keep it south of the Chain shifting eastward. Stay tuned for any updates as it looks like this will break our temporary quiet weather pattern

-SS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The long term is characterized by lows moving into the Bering and from the west and from the North Pacific. These lows will bring active weather to Southwest and coastal Southcentral Alaska.
Wednesday starts off with a North Pacific low moving into the Bering. Gale to storm force winds and moderate to heavy rain over the Aleutians accompanies this low. Meanwhile, Southcentral Alaska sees lingering light rain and snow for coastal regions and Kodiak Island with inland areas remaining drier. Thursday sees the low move eastward, bringing winds and rain to Southcentral Alaska while the back end of the low allows for continued winds and rain/snow over the Aleutians and AKPEN. Friday has the low move into the Gulf of Alaska with continued rain/snow and winds for coastal Southcentral Alaska. A ridge builds over the Bering, leading to drier and calmer conditions over much of Southwest Alaska. However, northerly flow allows for gap winds in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula areas. Also, another low moves into the Shemya area from the west, bringing another round of gusty winds and rainfall.

-JAR


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light northeast winds will persist through this evening. There is still a slight chance (around 20%)
for a few sprinkles or flurries this afternoon, but anything that does make it to the surface should stay very light. Depending on what happens with residual upper level cloud cover, low stratus could fill in over the terminal overnight tonight and bring ceilings down to MVFR or lower through Sunday morning. Again, this will depend on how much clearing happens after dark this evening, with more clearing increasing the chance for low stratus development late tonight into Sunday morning.