Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Clam Gulch, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:52AMSunset 11:19PM Thursday July 16, 2020 6:12 AM AKDT (14:12 UTC) Moonrise 12:10AMMoonset 5:49PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 347 Am Akdt Thu Jul 16 2020
.small craft advisory tonight...
Today..SE wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
Sat..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun through Mon..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clam Gulch, AK
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location: 60.23, -151.48     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 161304 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 504 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A double-barrel low is in place over the Bering with one low center positioned over Adak and the second centered southwest of the Pribilofs. This has brought extensive stratus and fog to the Bering and Aleutian Chain. Meanwhile an upper level ridge is in place over the Gulf of Alaska while an upper level trough extends across the Interior. Several upper level shortwaves embedded within the base of the trough over the Interior have generated showery activity over the northern Susitna Valley.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model solutions are in generally good agreement with synoptic scale features through Saturday. There is good consensus that the upper level trough in place over the Alaska Peninsula Friday afternoon shifts toward the northeast and lifts over Southcentral late Sunday. However, models are struggling with the interaction this feature has with an upper level trough over Interior Alaska that drops southward on Saturday. Both of these features will generate a series of shortwaves that traverse Southcentral from west to east, and models continue to struggle with the timing of these waves.

AVIATION. PANC . Expecting light winds and VFR conditions to start. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will pick up by the afternoon hours today. Showers may form along the mountains this afternoon, reducing ceilings to MVFR. A brief lull in the Turnagain Arm winds is possible early Fri morning, but they are expected to ramp up again midday Fri.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Scattered showers linger this morning from the Susitna Valley north to the Denali Highway as the first of two upper-level waves lifts northeast over the Tanana Flats. Thunderstorm activity yesterday afternoon and evening with this feature was not as robust as anticipated due to a cap, or nose of warm air, around 700 mb (10,000ft MSL) that provided some stability in the mid- levels of the atmosphere. The 12z soundings from McGrath and Anchorage this morning show an erosion of this stable air and a slight increase in mid-level lapse rates. This increase in instability will be an important factor in thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening as the second upper-level wave moves across interior Southcentral. Stability parameters indicate lifted indices of -2 to -4 and CAPE values of 300 to 700 J/kg across the northern Susitna Valley east to Glennallen. Given this, and the track of the upper-level wave, this area will see the best chance for widely scattered thunderstorms today. Given the general westerly flow and moisture advection aloft, thunderstorms are also possible along the upslope side of the Talkeetna, Chugach, and Kenai Ranges.

Farther south, a coastal ridge will develop ahead of a surface trough moving from the western Gulf to the northern Gulf later today. This will increase the pressure gradient between it and the thermal trough positioned over the interior, resulting in an increase in gap winds for Turnagain Arm, the Knik River Valley, and the Copper River Basin this afternoon. These winds are expected to move across the Anchorage Bowl due to the up-inlet and up-valley flow. These winds will relax a bit overnight, but are expected to peak again Friday afternoon and evening before diminishing by early morning Saturday as the first trough moves inland and dissipates. Rain will develop along the coast Friday in association with the trough and will linger into Saturday as a second surface low tracks across the central Gulf.

Another surface low develops near Kodiak Island Saturday, bringing rain to the island late Saturday through Sunday. This system lifts into the northern Gulf on Sunday, spreading rain along the Southcentral coast.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Today will begin fairly quiet across Southwest Alaska as the upper level ridge largely remains in place. However, an upper level trough is diving southward today that will be the catalyst of a stormier weather pattern for the rest of the week and into the first half of the weekend. The first in a series of upper level waves will approach the region this afternoon. Ahead of it will be ample instability with upwards of 1000 J/kg of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and LIs (Lifted Index) of 0 to -2. All three ingredients are coming together to produce a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening which are the upper level forcing, instability, and moisture moving into the area. These storms are expected to initiate over the Kilbuck Mountains and then move off to the east due to the steering flow being westerly. As a result, areas from Aniak to the western Alaska Range have the possibility of a thunderstorm this afternoon/evening. There is instability in northern Bristol Bay near Koliganek and New Stuyahok over to Iliamna. However, current thinking is any storms that form off to the west over the Kuskokwim Mountains will either remain on the mountains or dissipate to just showers as they move east and into the less unstable air. Areas in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta will largely remain rain free today especially coastal areas but a rain shower cannot be completely ruled out for Bethel.

Friday, another upper level wave will move down as the upper level trough continues to dig and the thermal trough lifts slightly to the north and the west. This will keep the thunderstorm activity slightly further to the west. All the aforementioned ingredients are in place yet again, though even stronger for this day. CAPE values were generally 500-1500 J/kg on guidance and LIs of -2 to -4. Therefore, there is an even better chance of thunderstorms for Friday afternoon and evening. Steering flow is southwesterly meaning that any storms that form on the Kuskokwim Mountains will move from southwest to northeast. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected with more lightning likely with these storms due to increased instability. Areas as far west as Bethel may observe a thunderstorm nearby as well as instability and the upper level forcing is stronger than the day before.

Saturday, yet another upper level wave will be the culprit for another chance of possible thunderstorms with instability parameters varying with the different model guidance and this will play a role in exactly how widespread and how much activity will occur. It appears any storms that may form will move south to north as the flow turns more southerly. Therefore, only introduced the risk for an isolated thunderstorm Saturday afternoon/evening for Bethel east to Sleetmute including the Kuskokwim Mountains.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

The Bering is expected to largely remain quiet over the next couple days as an upper level ridge builds in behind the departing/weakening storm system present near Adak. As a result, the usual low stratus and patchy fog is expected.

The aforementioned storm system will keep the central to eastern Aleutian Chain unsettled for today into Friday before pulling away to the south and the east. Winds will also remain generally light 5 to 15 kt in most areas with any small craft winds diminishing to sub small crafts later this afternoon.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday).

Aleutians/Bering: High pressure moves across the Bering through Mon. Northeast to east wind less than small craft expected with showers along the Aleutians into Bristol Bay through Mon. A front moves into the Western Aleutians and Bering by Mon. Confidence is good for southeast to south small craft winds and waves into Sun becoming east as the low moves south of the Aleutians Mon.

Gulf of Alaska: A front moves across the northern Gulf for Sun. Confidence is good for southeast to east small craft winds and waves over the coastal zones for Sun. Confidence is good for south to southwest small craft winds and waves to move into the central Gulf with local Gales into the southcentral Gulf diminishing Mon.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday).

There is some uncertainty in the upper long wave pattern this weekend through the middle of next week. However, it does appear that the upper low over the NW tier of the state retrogrades southwest and sets up broad troughing over the mainland with embedded short waves. This will likely lead to showery conditions across the mainland with areas of fog along the southwest coast. The upper jet for the most part is expected to remain below 60N. The mean position of the the baroclinic zone should remain below the Aleutians/AK Peninsula and bend north into the Gulf. This will lead to the potential for weakening lows and frontal system to bring rain to the Gulf coasts early to mid week. Ridging over the Aleutians/Bering sea will likely keep periods of low stratus and fog over that region.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MV MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/BC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 32 mi103 min SSW 7 G 8 56°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 44 mi43 min ENE 2.9 54°F 1006 hPa51°F
HMSA2 44 mi31 min ENE 4.1 G 6 56°F 1004.8 hPa49°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK26 mi20 minSSW 510.00 miFair55°F48°F80%1007.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S7SW9S6SW6SW7SW7SW8SW8SW9S13SW9S8SW9SW8S5SW7S5CalmCalmSW7SW5SW5
1 day agoS6S5SW5SW7SW8SW7SW7SW8SW8SW9SW9SW9SW8SW8S9S9S9S9S5CalmCalmN3S4N4
2 days agoN5NE6NE8N8NE6NE8N8N8N8N8E5NW6N9N12E8CalmNE3N4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:04 AM AKDT     16.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:13 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:27 AM AKDT     2.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:31 PM AKDT     14.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:16 PM AKDT     6.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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16.415.914.412.19.36.54.12.934.5710.112.714.214.313.311.69.47.56.56.98.611.214.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:04 AM AKDT     16.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:12 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:13 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM AKDT     2.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:31 PM AKDT     14.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 PM AKDT     6.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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16.415.914.3129.26.34.133.34.97.410.412.914.214.313.311.59.37.56.67.2911.614.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.