Tuesday, September21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Clam Gulch, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 8:04PM Tuesday September 21, 2021 5:46 AM AKDT (13:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:45PMMoonset 6:27AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 424 Am Akdt Tue Sep 21 2021
.small craft advisory today...
Today..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Tonight..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
Wed..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Thu..N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
Fri..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clam Gulch, AK
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location: 60.23, -151.48     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 210054 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 454 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The weather pattern is dominated by an upper-level trough digging south across the state to the Gulf and a ridge building upstream over the Bering. Within the trough are two distinct surface lows. One is located in the Gulf just east of Kodiak Island, with its associated front extending along the Southeast coastline and the other is in northern Alaska by the Brooks Range with its associated front extending down through the interior to Kodiak. The low in northern Alaska has upper air support from a jet streak measuring 90 kts and is driving cold arctic air down into the interior up against the Alaska Range this afternoon. With the combination of cold air advection and frontal passage, winds are beginning to pick up across Southcentral. Radar is showing returns by Prince William Sound enhanced by shortwaves spinning off the main low in the Gulf and a deformation band over the Susitna Valley as the flow aloft diverges between the two.

A ridge of high pressure is extending from the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula. Satellite shows a blanket of low stratus over much of the Bering and Aleutians as the ridge progresses east. Winds over the Aleutians/Bering are slowly beginning to die down as the ridge builds over the area and the trough pushes into the Gulf.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are in good synoptic agreement through the short-term. As the low in the Gulf moves east, the GFS has the upper-level ridge over the Alaska/Yukon border nose into interior Alaska more than the other solutions until it finally aligns with the others around 12z Thursday. Models are also having trouble keying in on the location of a surface low south/southwest of Kodiak Island as it moves from the Gulf towards Prince William Sound by Wednesday 12z. The GFS is showing a slower solution and is holding the low slightly west compared to the solutions (NAM/GEM/EC). The models are also struggling with the location of an upper-level low that drops south from the Chukchi Sea towards Western Alaska by Wednesday. The GFS/EC solutions is showing the center location over the Kuskokwim Delta while the NAM/Canadian have it positioned further northeast by Norton Sound. Overall, forecast confidence is good for the short-term and increasing for the long-term.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions will persist with a slight chance of a shower passing over the terminal through late evening. North winds will increase by late afternoon with gusts increasing by evening. Winds and gusts may diminish in intensity briefly during the early morning hours of Tuesday before increasing again by late Tuesday morning. Northerly wind gusts on Tuesday could reach 35 kt at times.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday) .

A cold front moving into the area from the west will interact with a moisture laden low over the northern Gulf to produce the first snow of the season for the Copper River Basin and gusty northerly winds across the region as well as the coldest air of the season to the area.

A cold front currently over the northern Susitna valley is being pushed into the area by an upper level shortwave while low pressure moving into the northern Gulf is producing rain across the northern Gulf coast as well as the western Susitna valley. The cold air will move across the area tonight dropping snow levels to the surface across much of the area. This cold air will interact with the moisture to produce snow. Snow will initially develop over the northern Susitna Valley and along the Glenn Highway east of Palmer in the higher elevations like Eureka. Expect 7-9 inches of snow from roughly Eureka to Tolsona along the Glenn Highway. While the lower elevations like Gulkana and Chitina will see lower snow accumulations generally 2 to 4 inches. Additionally, along the Edgerton Highway between Valdez and Tonsina in higher elevations expect 4 to 6 inches of snow. See the Winter Weather Advisory issued for the Copper Basin for more information.

Rain will also change over to snow on the Anchorage Hillside tonight with a half inch or less possible before ending early Wednesday morning. Additionally, higher elevations in Eagle River especially along Hiland Road will see up to an inch of snow tonight through early Wednesday morning. Otherwise populated areas like Anchorage and the MAT Valley as well as Kenai, Soldotna and Homer will only see rain ending tonight with no snow expected. Clouds will hang tough on Tuesday across Anchorage and the MAT Valley keeping it cool throughout the day with highs in the 40s.

Strong gap winds aided by cold air advection will be the other main impact from these two systems. Strong gusty winds can be expected through the typical places, including the Barren Islands, Seward, and Whittier. Gusts may reach as high as 50 mph for Whittier and Seward on Tuesday. The Anchorage Bowl itself will also be gusty with northwesterly winds gusting up to 35 mph, especially on the west side of town. Elevated mountain passes, particularly Thompson Pass, are also expected to experience some blowing snow with gusty winds accompanying higher snowfall rates.

The weather will calm down on Wednesday as a weak shortwave ridge moves in from the west. Clearing skies overnight will likely make Wednesday morning the coldest of the week with lows dropping below freezing at sea level for the mainland. High clouds will begin to stream in from the southwest as the next large low moves in from the north Pacific. Some uncertainty remains as to weather the low will remain closed, or become complex with a second low center developing along the front as it moves into the southern Gulf Wednesday evening. Even so, fairly widespread Gales are expected over the marine areas with the minimum low pressure bottoming out somewhere in the 975-980 mb range. A storm force barrier jet is possible along the Gulf Coast Thursday but remains uncertain at this time. For precipitation, the Gulf Coast and Kodiak can expect moderate to heavy rain as the front moves through the area. The low center is expected to remain well into the Gulf, so northerly outflow winds are likely through the typical spots.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday) .

Much cooler temperatures and mixed rain/snow (especially along the higher elevations) will fill Southwest AK in the next few days. Cold air advection (-7 to -10C at 850 mb) will linger over the region, followed by another sequence of much colder air from upstream accompanying an Arctic trough that could arrive near the Yukon Delta and Southwest Coast between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This trough is expected to focus heavily over Southwest Coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night, leading to a prolong mixed rain/snow event and more further inland near the Kuskokwim Delta. A cold front exiting Bristol Bay this afternoon will provide gusty northwest winds up to 45 mph tonight, then tapering off Tuesday morning. All in all, overnight temperatures will fall in the lower 20s to lower 30s, with day time highs ranging in the 30s to mid 40s across Southwest.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday) .

The Semisopochnoi volcano west of Adak is still currently active.

Two separate upper level ridges, one over the central Aleutians and the next emerging ridge over the western Bering, will block an upper trough from the North Pacific to remain over the southern Bering and across the Aleutian Chain through Wednesday. The Arctic trough over the Southwest Coast on Wednesday morning will continue racing southward through the eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula between Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon. This expected system could bring mixed rain/snow through the eastern Bering especially near higher elevations over the eastern Aleutians. As a result, anticipate a relatively quiet forecast except for gales in several marine areas over the Aleutian Chain between tonight and Tuesday night. Much stronger gusts will continue along the gaps and passes especially along the Aleutians through the next few days.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/ Thursday through Saturday).

Gulf of Alaska . A well-developed low south of Kodiak Island moves to the North Gulf Coast by Friday. This low spreads predominantly easterly high end gales, with several areas of storm force winds, along the North Gulf Coast and northeasterly winds through Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait, slowly diminishing Friday night. Northwesterly high end gale force gap winds through the Barren Islands and Sitkinak areas, Friday diminishing Saturday. Seas to 19 ft spread across the Gulf, subsiding Saturday.

Bering Sea . A North Pacific low intensifies as it tracks along the Aleutian Islands through Saturday. Predominantly high end gales with the low and areas of storm force winds on the Pacific side of the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea for Friday morning through Saturday. Seas to 19 ft south of the Aleutians through Saturday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday).

Long-range guidance is in very good agreement, showing a continuation of an amplified pattern with well-defined and strong upper-level features. A 140 kt subtropical jet outlines an upper- level trough from east of Kamchatka to the Gulf of Alaska, bookended by two distinct upper-level lows. The polar jet is digging south from eastern Russia, and is acting to further amplify the pattern downstream. The first upper-level low over the western Gulf will move to the northern Gulf Friday before weakening and moving inland. The polar jet will send a shortwave south across the Bering while a second wave moves east with support of the subtropical jet. Both systems will attempt to phase and dig southward, amplifying a ridge out ahead of it across the Gulf and over Southcentral. The upper-level trough then quickly deepens and becomes a closed low south of the AKPen by Sunday morning. This feature then moves to the northern Gulf by Monday morning as an upper-level ridge builds in its wake.

The result of this pattern will be the erosion of the colder air across the Southern Mainland as a southerly flow aloft develops ahead of the trough in the western Gulf. Rain will continue across coastal Southcentral through Saturday, with southeasterly gap winds ahead of this system diminishing as the low moves toward Prince William Sound. There will be some colder air wrapping around the back side of the low, which will allow for rain to transition to snow in the higher elevations.

As this system weakens, the next low moves into the western Gulf for Sunday morning as its front lifts to the northern Gulf. Another round of strong gap winds and rain are expected across coastal locations with gale to storm-force easterly winds expected ahead of the aforementioned front. Unsettled weather will persist into early next week as the low continues to track toward Prince William Sound.

Out west, the ridge will keep conditions rather quiet across the eastern half of the Bering and Aleutians through early Saturday before a storm-force low south of Attu begins to track east along the Chain. This system will advect colder air behind it, with northerly gales and storm-force gusts likely across the Bering and central Bering Saturday and across the eastern Bering and Aleutians and AKPen by Sunday. A second storm-force low then looks to develop near Attu by late Sunday or early Monday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory 141. MARINE . Gale 119 120 130-132 138 150 174-177. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . TM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . RC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CB MARINE/LONG TERM . CJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 32 mi46 min NNE 17 G 22 44°F 52°F1002.4 hPa (+0.7)
APXA2 38 mi61 min NE 4.1 41°F 1002 hPa20°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 44 mi76 min NNE 21 1001 hPa
HMSA2 44 mi14 min NNE 15 G 24 42°F 20°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 48 mi46 min 43°F 50°F4 ft

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK26 mi53 minN 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F16°F39%1002.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE6NE5CalmNE5N6NE7NE8NE8NE7NE6E3N6N4N7N5N3NE3NE6CalmN4NE3N3N3NE5
2 days agoNW3CalmN3NE4NE4N9N11N12N10NW7N7N6W7W4W4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
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Ninilchik
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Tue -- 04:00 AM AKDT     21.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:50 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:30 AM AKDT     -1.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:25 PM AKDT     21.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:45 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:50 PM AKDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.51015.72021.520.41712.16.51.8-0.9-0.92.27.513.518.721.521.418.914.493.80.2-0.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:00 AM AKDT     21.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:50 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:28 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:20 AM AKDT     -1.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:25 PM AKDT     21.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:46 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:40 PM AKDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.210.616.120.121.520.316.811.76.11.4-0.9-0.42.98.11418.921.621.418.714.18.53.40.1-0.4

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