Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Clam Gulch, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 9:28PM Monday August 26, 2019 1:51 AM AKDT (09:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 6:06PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 454 Pm Akdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Thu..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clam Gulch, AK
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location: 60.23, -151.48     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 260542
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
942 pm akdt Sun aug 25 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The upper-level low over moving south of sand point remains
disconnected from the pacific jet and has been producing
thunderstorms since early this morning over marine zones 150 and
155. Stable air on the north side of the feature inside of
bristol bay kept fog in place over places like king salmon through
midday. An upper-level short wave is moving eastbound over the
western interior with a healthy southwesterly pacific jet core and
its associated shortwave south and west of kodiak island and the
shumigans.

Showers and thunderstorms moved inland from prince william sound
east of college fjord pushing the leftover clouds over tazlina
lake and surrounding wildfires.

Smoke lingered over the anchorage and matsu valley locations this
morning, but conditions were noticeably improved for many
locations north of the fire, but lower visibility was found on
webcams around the kenai peninsula including seward. Smoke
advisories have expired for now.

With low pressure lurking west of cook inlet, turnagain arm winds
have come up in the heat of the day. This has likely helped to
keep smoke out of the larger population centers for the time
being.

The snow glacial dam lake release is subsiding and associated
advisories are being allowed to expire with time.

Model discussion
Models appear to be in good agreement through early week.

Challenges will focus on the strength and timing of turnagain arm
winds and resulting smoke trajectory forecasts. With winds going
slack or light northerly late tonight and into Monday, the risk of
lowered visibility due to smoke may increase for anchorage and
the population centers in matsu... Especially compared to the
improvement noted this Sunday.

Aviation
Panc... Turnagain arm winds will become light from the north by
early Monday. As this happens, smoke that has entered the susitna
valley may settle into the anchorage aerodrome and reduce
visibility into the MVFR range. Without smoke as a concern, the
taf period will remainVFR.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
With ridging over the eastern gulf that extends over the copper
river basin and troughing to the west, overall flow has switched
to a southerly direction. This setup also allows for some east to
west oriented gaps to see stronger winds. One of those is along
turnagain arm where winds are starting to bend in over western
anchorage. There will also be a chance for light showers for many
locations around southcentral alaska this afternoon evening, with
the highest likelihood over the mountains.

Overnight the ridge will push off to the east and a low will
develop in the gulf. This will work to diminish winds throughout
southcentral alaska, but not before the southerly flow brings more
smoke from the swan lake fire to areas around anchorage and the
matanuska and susitna valleys. Light outflow winds are expected on
Monday due to the low in the gulf and rain chances will diminish
as well. Tuesday and Wednesday will see dry conditions with light
winds.

Fire weather
The weather will be generally warm and dry for the next several
days, other than some mountain shower activity this afternoon and
evening. There is only a slight chance any mountain convection
impacts the fires. Southeasterly gap winds are expected to
linger through the evening, with gradual diminishing of those
winds into tonight. Those winds will also impact the swan lake
fire. The wind will flip around back to the north to northwest by
Monday afternoon.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (through Wednesday)
An upper level low pressure and cold air aloft will keep
thunderstorms going along the akpen aleutian range this evening
before the system slides into the gulf of alaska. Weak northwest
flow will replace the system with several disturbances passing
overhead which could bring a weak shower to the mainland. The
marine layer should stay entrenched over the kuskokwim delta for
the next couple days, breaking up slightly in the afternoon hours.

Areas of fog are expected to form overnight in the kuskokwim
valley as well as along the bristol bay coast, mainly along the
alaska peninsula.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (through Wednesday)
The bering sea is between systems for a short period of time. High
pressure overhead will facilitate the marine layer thickening
during the overnight hours. On Monday, a front will push into the
western bering sea, slowly moving from west to east through mid-
week.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
A low in the bering will deepen late Wednesday into Friday while
its associated front traverses the aleutians. There is potential
for gales along the front, but model solutions continue to differ
on the setup of the low so uncertainty is high.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7)
Low pressure will develop in the bering, and an upper ridge over
the eastern gulf northeastern pacific will persist. The trend
into the weekend is for the trough to dig south to the alaska
peninsula while the upper ridge amplifies in the eastern gulf of
alaska into the mainland. There is significant disagreement in the
model solutions with regard to how far south and east the trough
digs and whether a strong upper closed low will be south of the
akpen or this remains an upper trough. Current thinking is to
maintain the upper trough solution as opposed to a closed upper
low moving into the gulf of alaska. Bottom line is the ensemble or
compromise solutions support cool moist weather across southwest
alaska while southcentral alaska remains in the drier flow,
although temperatures should be cooler and cloud cover will be
increasing. Confidence in the forecast beyond Thursday is low.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood advisory 121.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ds
southcentral alaska... Dk
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ml
marine long term... Mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 32 mi51 min S 6 G 7 59°F1016 hPa (+0.9)
APXA2 38 mi66 min NW 4.1 55°F 1016 hPa53°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 44 mi81 min NNE 2.9 56°F 1014 hPa48°F
HMSA2 44 mi19 min ESE 1 G 2.9 54°F 1015 hPa46°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 47 mi51 min 54°F1 ft

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK26 mi3 hrsSE 410.00 miFair55°F46°F72%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmE33CalmSW8SW9SW13SW12SW12SW9SW8S9S9S7SE6SE4CalmS3
1 day agoCalmNE5E4N3CalmCalmCalmNE3E6N7N7--5N7W9W6SW8W7W3W4S3SW6S5Calm
2 days agoS6S5S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW3S5W7SW6SW7SW5SW8SW7SW6SW6S5E5NE4N5

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:18 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:47 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:53 AM AKDT     2.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:11 PM AKDT     15.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 PM AKDT     6.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:04 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:27 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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16.515.213.110.47.54.832.43.45.68.611.814.315.41513.711.59.17.26.47.39.512.515.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:19 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:43 AM AKDT     2.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:11 PM AKDT     15.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:51 PM AKDT     6.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:04 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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16.515.21310.37.44.732.73.86.191214.415.41513.611.497.26.67.79.912.815.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.