Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Clam Gulch, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:47AMSunset 4:33PM Monday January 18, 2021 5:43 PM AKST (02:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:59AMMoonset 11:11PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 344 Pm Akst Mon Jan 18 2021
.gale warning through Tuesday night...
Tonight..N wind 30 kt becoming sw 40 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
Tue..SW wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
Tue night..NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
Wed..N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Wed night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clam Gulch, AK
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location: 60.23, -151.48     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 190137 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 437 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A large low is located just south of Seward this afternoon and moving northward. This occluded low has numerous frontal bands. The first one moved through Southcentral earlier today bringing a mix of rain and snow to the region. Another front is moving into the southern Kenai Peninsula early this afternoon and looks on satellite like it will continue to head northward in spite of models showing it stalling along the coast. This will likely resolve with the main energy moving inland with a residual low lagging along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures aloft are just warm enough to bring widespread rain at sea level, but snow is just above the surface with Turnagain Pass seeing quite a bit as well as Chickaloon Pass between Palmer and Glennallen.

Colder air to the west of this low has turned precipitation in the Bristol Bay region to all snow with enough snow and blowing snow to warrant a winter weather advisory today.

The next system can be seen on satellite near 40N 175W and starting to turn to the northeast.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models remain in good synoptic agreement. That said, the structure of the low moving from the Gulf into Southcentral today was very similar on all the models this time yesterday, but all were off. This remains a very dynamic system over complex terrain and the models are going to struggle on some of the details. Beyond this low, the tendency of the models to move the low well south of Adak to Kodiak Island Tuesday night and then quickly weaken it in the northern Gulf on Wednesday looks increasingly likely. After that, the models agree on moving the low track farther westward, but this will mostly depend on the development and amplitude of the ridge in the northeast Pacific late this week. Models are in reasonable agreement on the placement of this feature, but how much it amplifies is important and will be watched over the course of the next few model runs.

AVIATION. PANC . Precipitation type should turn from mostly rain to snow around midnight. Expect MVFR conditions through the night with periods of IFR possible as well. The low level wind shear this afternoon should end by early this evening.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tonight through Wednesday) . High winds along the North Gulf and Turnagain Arm will begin to gradually subside as the center of the low moves overhead. Heavy snow continues to fall across the Copper River Basin in areas mainly south and west of Glennallen. Eureka is currently one quarter of a mile with moderate snow falling and a northeast breeze of around 10 to 20 miles per hour. These conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours before gradually improving around midnight. Thompson Pass and areas along the southern Richardson Highway may hold onto the snow for another hour or so after midnight before tapering to light snow which is expected to continue into Tuesday morning. The Winter Storm Warning will remain in place for areas south and west of Glennallen through midnight which is earlier than the original expiration of 6 AM Tuesday as conditions are expected to improve overnight.

Next, with all this warm air in place across Southcentral, this makes the forecast for overnight into Tuesday morning especially tricky for Anchorage, the western Kenai Peninsula, and the Mat-SU Valleys. Current thinking remains that any precipitation that occurs prior to 9 PM will most likely remain in the form of liquid. Then, some ever slightly colder air begins to move in after this time (between 9 PM and Midnight) to change to rain over to snow. After midnight, all snow is expected across much of Southcentral. A general 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected for much of the area with the lower amounts for west Anchorage, western Kenai Peninsula, Susitna Valley, and the western Matanuska Valley. The Anchorage Hillside, east Anchorage, and parts of the eastern Matanuska Valley are expected to see higher amounts of 2 to 3 inches. This will also favor some snow for Hatcher Pass as the flow turns more southwesterly through much of the atmosphere which is a more favorable direction for Hatcher Pass with a general 2 to 4 inches expected as snow levels fall and colder air comes back in.

Thirdly, as the upper level trough finally lifts north of the region late Tuesday morning/early Tuesday afternoon, an upper level ridge is expected to move overhead briefly keeping many areas dry and even some sunshine to go along with the increasing daylight.

Lastly, the next storm system will be on the heels of this first one which is expected to bring more rain and mountain snow as well as precipitation type issues yet again for Southcentral Tuesday night through Wednesday. At this time though, expect many areas across the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley to downslope.

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SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Monday Afternoon through Thursday) . The upper low is tracking near the Kenai Peninsula this is bringing widespread deformation zone snow bands from Dillingham south towards Pilot Point and Port Heiden. A winter weather advisory is still in effect through 6 PM for south of King Salmon due to snow and blowing snow. Over the Kuskokwim Delta light snow is falling due to wrap around moisture on back side of this low. Another 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is expected from Dillingham and Bethel and points north. As the low tracks north the snowfall will end tonight with skies clearing after midnight. With fresh moisture on the ground, clearing skies and light onshore flow patchy fog is expected to develop late tonight and tomorrow morning across the Kuskokwim Delta and parts of the Bristol Bay area mainly from Dillingham and north and west towards King Salmon.

Tuesday afternoon and evening a front moves onshore bringing up to 5 inches of snowfall expected in heaviest bands, however advisory level snowfall or blowing snow is not expected to be an issue with this front.

A brief break in the weather Wednesday with mainly dry conditions with a warming trend from south to north as the next front brings warmer air inland with chances or rain and/or snow late Wednesday with this front. This warming trend will continue on Thursday with warmer southerly flow and mostly rain in the valleys as a modified airmass with a tropical connection invades Southwest Alaska.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Monday Afternoon through Thursday) . A gale force front will continue to track across the Bering and Aleutians a couple of low pressure systems are expected along this front. The strongest low is on the southern fringe moving towards the AKPEN Tuesday afternoon and evening this will bring gale force winds and brief periods of snow and blowing snow to the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN with near storm force gusts. Our attention then turns to a stronger storm force low moving across the central Aleutians and Bering late Tuesday and Wednesday. This low will track north towards the Arctic on Thursday. As the low moves north southern flow will develop across the north Pacific into the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN this will bring warmer air and moisture with a good amount of rainfall possible, however it looks progressive in nature so no flooding issues expected. Finally, another low approaches the central Aleutians from the north Pacific late Thursday with near gale force winds and more rain.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5): Thursday through Saturday. Gulf of Alaska: A trough extending across the Northern Gulf deepens into a low south of Cordova by Sat. While model tracks and development vary, confidence is good for southerly small craft winds and waves with local gale force gusts to spread over the Gulf through Sat. The higher winds extend around Kodiak Island and through the Barren Islands for Thu and Fri. Winds become westerly small craft level across the Southern Gulf with wave heights from 15 to 17 feet spread over the Southern Gulf through Sat.

Aleutians/Bering: A well-developed low near St Matthew Island moves northward through the period. A North Pacific low moves into the Eastern Bering by Sat. Model tracks and development are mixed, with fair confidence through the period. Widespread small craft winds and waves with locally strong gale force gusts wrap the Northern Bering low, diminishing late Fri. Waves to 18 feet around the Pribilofs diminishing with this low. The second low brings southerly small craft winds along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Winds become westerly over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula and remain southerly in the west. Wave heights south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula to 18 feet.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7): Friday through Monday. A warming trend will continue late this week into the weekend as a front continues to move over the Alaska mainland. A front spreading across the Southwest will bring mostly rain to the region, becoming more showery in nature through Saturday. This system will continue into Southcentral Alaska and then start to clear out on Sunday.

Another low pressure system will enter the western Bering and Aleutians late Saturday, which will bring another round of widespread precipitation and strong winds across the area. The associated front will reach the Southwest coast between Sunday and Monday, while areas farther inland and across Southcentral will remain dry to start the week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MV SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . RC MARINE/LONG TERM . KZ/AH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 32 mi55 min NNE 12 G 16 36°F 30°F978.5 hPa
HMSA2 44 mi31 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 39°F 34°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 44 mi73 min SE 1 977 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 48 mi43 min 37°F 42°F4 ft

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK26 mi50 minN 1410.00 miLight Rain36°F30°F79%978.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE21N18NE18NE18NE15NE14NE12N13N13N14N11N10N11N10N12N11N7NE11NE9NE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE3NE3N5N8N6N8N13N15N16N16N18N21N18N20N21N23
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Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:32 AM AKST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:41 AM AKST     18.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:48 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:59 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:02 PM AKST     3.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:35 PM AKST     16.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.42.76.711.215.41818.517.114.310.87.34.63.64.77.41114.416.516.815.312.59.15.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:22 AM AKST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:41 AM AKST     18.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:48 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:59 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:52 PM AKST     3.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:35 PM AKST     16.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.83.37.211.615.518.118.51714.210.674.63.85.17.911.314.516.616.815.212.48.95.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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