Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cohoe, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:31AMSunset 4:52PM Sunday January 26, 2020 2:14 AM AKST (11:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:50AMMoonset 6:15PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 343 Pm Akst Sat Jan 25 2020
.heavy freezing spray warning through Sunday night...
.small craft advisory through Sunday night...
Tonight..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Sun..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Sun night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Mon..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon night..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Wed..N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cohoe, AK
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location: 60.24, -151.34     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 260138 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 438 PM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. In the upper levels, a blocking ridge extends from the eastern Bering Sea northwestward to eastern Russia. High amplitude troughs are positioned either side of the ridge, one over mainland Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska and another over the western Aleutians and northwest Bering Sea. Arctic air is firmly entrenched over mainland Alaska. Deep northerly flow between low pressure in the Gulf and high pressure in the Bering Sea is driving the arctic air southward across Southwest Alaska into the eastern Bering as well as across the Alaska Peninsula into the western Gulf and down into the Pacific. This is leading to gusty northerly winds across southwest Alaska and nearby coastal waters, along with low wind chills over land areas and heavy freezing spray over marine areas. As is typical the strongest winds are being observed out of bays and passes along the south side of the Alaska Peninsula.

A multi-centered low is spinning over the central Gulf, with a nearly stationary front aligned north to south from the eastern Gulf down into the east Pacific. Southerly flow aloft on the east side of the trough is advecting moisture northward across the eastern Gulf, with some snow showers in the vicinity of Cordova and on up into the southeastern Copper River Basin. Strong gap winds, largely supported by tight pressure gradients, are being observed along the Gulf coast and Prince William Sound as well as through mountain passes over interior Southcentral.

To the west of the ridge, an old surface front is strung out from the central Aleutians to the northwest Bering Sea, with a fairly narrow band of snow right along it. A much larger swathe of gale force winds can be found north and east if this boundary. The parent low is nearly stationary near the Kamchatka Peninsula while a newly formed compact (but deep) low is tracking north-northwest toward the western Aleutians.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models continue to struggle with the position of multiple weak lows over the Gulf of Alaska. They are in better (but not great) agreement on the track of a low tracking up the front across the eastern Gulf this afternoon through tonight. This will finally bring some level of confidence to the precipitation forecast for the Cordova-Valdez-Copper River Basin areas tonight. Models then break down after this with position and track of numerous lows crossing the Gulf through Monday night. None of these lows looks particularly strong. Despite the large model spread, they at least all show the same general trend, with lows progressing farther north with time and more precipitation pushing onshore into Southcentral. Will strive to depict these trends in the latest forecast.

Model guidance is in much better agreement out west with lows passing south of the Aleutians and with arctic air spilling south and west across the Bering Sea over the next few days. There are some challenges on the local scale with strength of winds as well as temperatures and wind chills over Southwest Alaska, bit overall forecast confidence for Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea/Aleutians is high.

AVIATION. PANC . Expect winds to begin to diminish beginning some time this evening and continuing overnight as the lows over the Gulf approach Southcentral and push the core of northerly winds off to the west. It is looking more and more likely for a period of light snow during the day Sunday as the upper low center over the Gulf lifts northward over Southcentral, pulling some of the low level moisture north and west toward Anchorage. Forcing is weak and any snow that does fall will be quite light, which makes for a difficult ceiling/visibility forecast. MVFR seems like worst case scenario, so have gone on the high end of this category for now.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). The main challenges for the current forecast are winds, cold temperatures, and increasing chances for snow.

Gusty winds continue through channeled terrain and across the Gulf tonight. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly colder than the previous night as the upper level low over the Gulf becomes negatively tilted. This negative tilt of the trough aloft helps to pull cold air around the core of the system which generally cools the column of air. This supports colder surface temperatures through Monday.

For tonight, low pressure over the Gulf keeps ongoing narrow bands of snow across the central and northern Gulf waters. Snow spreads inland across Cordova and eastern areas of the Copper River Valley during the overnight hours as a new surface low develops and races north from the eastern Gulf. Models are in better agreement with showing the western extent of frontal boundary reaching Valdez after midnight. With cold air drainage expected to continue, a blizzard warning was issued for Thompson pass as white out conditions are expected during the frontal passage. Valdez will experience blowing snow also with reduced visibilities to one mile at times. The surface low driving the front will quickly dissipate as it slams into the cold air mass mid morning. The most challenging question is how far north and west snow will spread as the core of the upper low positions over the northern Cook inlet early Sunday afternoon. Low to mid level moisture streams across Prince William Sound to the Matanuska Valley. Models were not showing any precipitation making it across the Chugach Range yesterday, but are now starting to hint at snow spreading toward Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Models typically struggle on snow prediction when weak surface dynamics are involved. Have trended the forecast to mention chances for snow farther west on Sunday as the upper low moves significant short waves northwestward across the Chugach and Talkeetna Ranges.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). The forecast for significant cold air spilling into Southwest Alaska and the Kuskokwim Delta remains on track. The upper level high pressure over the eastern Bering and the low in the Gulf of Alaska are responsible for a tightening pressure gradient and the resultant northerly winds that will bring dangerous wind chills to the region on Sunday and Monday. Winds coming over the southeastern Bering Sea waters will initiate snow showers across much of the north side of the AKPEN Sunday into Monday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2). A north Pacific low will continue to generate windy conditions across the western half of the Aleutian chain. A mix of rain and snow showers will continue to impact the area as well through Tuesday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday). Gulf of Alaska: Northerly outflow winds will continue through bays and passes with areas of gales and heavy freezing spray across Kamishak Bay and the Barren Islands early Tuesday. On Tuesday, these winds will relax as a weak low and associated front pushes inland along the Southcentral Coast. There is increasing confidence that beginning late Tuesday a ~950mb low will develop and lift north into the southern Gulf. This system will produce widespread precipitation with easterly gales (perhaps some storm- force winds as well) across the Gulf ahead of the low, reaching the Southcentral Coast by Wednesday. Westerly gales will wrap around the back side of the low. Waves in excess of 20 feet are expected with this system.

Bering Sea and Aleutians: Gusty northerly winds will continue across the eastern Bering through Tuesday with areas of gales and heavy freezing spray along the Pacific side of the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN. Gusts will increase along the AKPEN again Wednesday as a low in the western Gulf strengthens.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7). There is increasing confidence that a developing storm-force low will push toward coastal Southcentral Alaska Wednesday. This will usher in copious amounts of moisture in the form of snow over much of the coast along with a southeasterly flow and warmer temperatures. This system will weaken rapidly by late Wednesday as it pushes onshore and runs into the arctic air entrenched over interior portions of the Southern Mainland. Given the depth of the colder air in place, there is still a fair bit of uncertainty regarding how much of the precipitation makes it over interior locations. There also remains the possibility that the southeasterly flow initiates some downsloping over the Kenai and Chugach and limits the potential for snow in the lee of these mountains. Snow chances then increase for late Wednesday into Thursday for the Kuskokwim Valley as the remaining energy from this feature continues to trek inland and overruns the cold air in place.

By the end of the week, confidence in the guidance wanes as solutions diverge. Overall, the pattern remains an active and unsettled one over Southcentral. The GFS keeps the upper-level trough axis over the western Gulf, allowing a second deep low to track north into the Gulf and toward the Southcentral Coast by late Thursday into Friday. The EC, on the other hand, shifts the trough axis to the east, shifting the brunt of this second surface low toward the Alaska Panhandle.

Farther west, arctic air will remain in place over much of Southwest Alaska, although there is the potential for a brief period of moderation in the cold temperatures on Thursday as clouds and light snow move across the region. For the Bering and Aleutians, an area of low pressure will slide across the Bering from west to east beginning late Thursday, reaching the AKPEN by early Saturday. Models are then keying in on a deepening low southwest of Shemya that looks to swing a front across the western Bering for Saturday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Blizzard Warning 131 (T-Pass). Wind Chill Advisory 155 161. MARINE . Gale Warning 121 127 128 130 131 138 139 150 175>178 185. Heavy Freezing Spray 121 127 129>131 137>139 141 150 155 165 179 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . KH SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . LB MARINE/LONG TERM . TM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 31 mi63 min NE 8 G 11 6°F 29°F996.8 hPa
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 44 mi105 min ENE 14 9°F 994 hPa-1°F
HMSA2 44 mi33 min ENE 11 G 18 9°F 992 hPa-2°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK23 mi82 minN 010.00 miFair-15°F-20°F77%997.3 hPa
Soldotna, AK23 mi79 minN 010.00 miFair-14°F-18°F82%998.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW5NW6N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5E3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm33CalmCalmNW5NW5N6NW5N6N5N7N4S4CalmNW5N5

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:21 AM AKST     19.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:34 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:23 AM AKST     2.56 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:50 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:58 PM AKST     20.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:04 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:18 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:46 PM AKST     -2.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.9712.617.219.519.216.913.18.74.82.73.16.110.615.419.120.419.316.211.66.51.8-1.3-1.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kenai River entrance, Alaska
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Kenai River entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:32 AM AKST     21.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:36 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:51 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:37 AM AKST     3.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:59 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:09 PM AKST     21.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:14 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.51.66.712.617.820.72118.915.210.56.23.53.35.910.515.719.921.921.118.213.88.53.4-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.