Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cohoe, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:39AMSunset 4:43PM Friday January 22, 2021 6:25 AM AKST (15:25 UTC) Moonrise 11:21AMMoonset 3:09AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 354 Am Akst Fri Jan 22 2021
.small craft advisory Saturday...
Today..Variable wind up to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..E wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Sat..Variable wind 10 kt in the morning becoming W 25 kt. Seas 2 ft in the morning building to 8 ft. Rain with snow.
Sat night..W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Sun..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cohoe, AK
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location: 60.24, -151.34     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 221436 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 536 AM AKST Fri Jan 22 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A strong longwave ridge that has dominated the synoptic pattern over the mainland for the past day or two is now beginning to shift east with the ridge axis now nearing the Al-Can border. A series of shortwaves are drifting into Southwest and across parts of Southcentral this morning, and each of these waves are bringing associated bands of rain and higher elevation snow through parts of the area as they track across from southwest to northeast. One of these weak shortwaves in particular is bringing periods of rain to the northern Gulf and lower elevations of the western Kenai Peninsula, in addition to parts of the western Cook Inlet to Susitna Valley.

The low level southeast flow with the passing southwesterly waves combined with the east to west pressure gradient is driving gusty gap winds up to around 30 mph through the Turnagain Arm. Despite the continued weak down-inlet flow, southeast winds have mixed to the surface at times from yesterday evening into this morning for parts of Anchorage. This has intermittently warmed temperatures into the mid to upper 30s in parts of town as winds mix out a very shallow temperature inversion that topped out at only about 500 ft in the previous evening's 00z sounding.

Farther west, another sprawling low is working its way across the central Aleutians. A number of smaller scale centers and are visible within the synoptic circulation on GOES-17 satellite products. One of these mesolows is approaching the Pribilofs from the south, with another nearing Unalaska from a similar approach. This system is not particularly intense compared to many storms we have seen track across the area this winter, and recent ASCAT passes reveal mainly small craft force winds or weaker over the Bering with this low passage. Strong southerly flow and a couple passing southerly waves continue across the southwest, bringing continued mild and showery conditions to much of the area today.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in reasonable agreement at the synoptic level through early next week. Some differences emerge by late Sat with the negatively-tilted longwave trough moving in from the Southwest/AKPEN expected to erode the ridge currently in place over the Gulf through the eastern interior. A portion of the wave is likely to close off and break across the ridge, and models differ to some degree with when this wave break occurs. The NAM/Canadian are slower to close off the upper wave and bring it across the Gulf. The GFS shows this progression happen much earlier, bringing the upper low forming over the Gulf farther southeast by Sat night. This results in a much deeper and more southeast moving surface low than what other solutions depict, and the GFS is thus being largely discounted as an outlier for the 00z model cycle.

Models also currently show an unusually strong signal for a fairly powerful storm to enter the Bering by Tues to Wed. While some disagreement on the exact track and timing of the potential low by this point unsurprisingly exists, all reliable global solutions show the central pressure bottoming out below 950 mb before reaching the southwest Bering by early Wed. This bears monitoring for what could be an impactful storm for the Aleutians/Bering as this timeframe gets closer, and as models presumably get a better handle on the low's evolution.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds at the surface will persist, except for occasional periods of southeast winds gusting to around 20 kts early this morning. LLWS will continue at around 1000 ft with the southeast winds aloft, except during any periods of stronger southeast winds reaching the terminal. Wind shear is expected to decrease by midday as winds aloft relax somewhat, but LLWS could return by the evening hours as winds above the surface increase once again.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

An upper-level shortwave and associated weakening surface front continue to move toward Southcentral this morning. Precipitation out ahead of the front will fall mainly as rain along the immediate coast through the afternoon hours as the front stalls and weakens over the northern Gulf. The weak cross-barrier flow overnight is breaking down this morning as winds aloft shift more southerly in the wake of the transiting upper-level wave. This wind shift is ushering moisture up Cook Inlet and has allowed some light mixed precipitation to develop from Kenai to Talkeetna. Much of the precipitation, however, is not reaching the ground as of the early morning hours, as the airmass nearest the surface (below 6,000ft) is still quite dry. Any light precipitation away from the coast will diminish by early afternoon as these features exit the region. Rain will continue for the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound as the moist, southeasterly flow persists.

The next frontal system then approaches the western Gulf late Friday with another round of rain for Kodiak City. A surface low will spin up along the front and lift toward the Kenai Peninsula by early morning Saturday. As it does, another round of heavier rain will overspread the coast. Farther inland, snow will develop for Turnagain Pass, as snow levels look to remain at or slightly below 1,000 ft. Up to a foot of snow is possible for the pass late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon. Blowing snow is also possible for Turnagain Pass as southeasterly winds increase ahead of the low pressure system. Gap winds will also be on the increase through Turnagain Arm and the Mat Valley late Friday evening through Saturday morning. Precipitation along the lee of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains will again be limited due to a strong cross-barrier flow and downsloping component. By around noon Saturday, as the low moves closer to Prince William Sound, colder air will begin to work in behind the system. Winds aloft will become westerly with precipitation overspreading Cook Inlet and the Susitna Valley. Any mixed precipitation at the onset is expected to quickly transition to snow. Light snow is expected to linger from Talkeetna south to Kenai through early Sunday morning with a general 1 to 3 inches of accumulation possible. Slightly higher amounts are possible for locations with upslope enhancement, such as the Anchorage Hillside.

Westerly winds in the wake of this system will become quite gusty across Kodiak Island late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, with gusts potentially as high as 50 mph.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A weak front is moving northeast across Southwest AK and is producing rain showers as it moves along. This front clears out this morning, before the next wave enters early tonight. This next wave moves up from the Eastern Aleutians and through Bristol Bay, before it pushes northeast across the area. This wave will make it into interior Southwest AK by Saturday morning. Flow on the backside of this wave will switch to more westerly early tonight which will cool temperatures as the wave moves northeast. Temperatures will fall enough to produce snow with this next system. Models are indicating this wave will drop a little more precipitation than initially expected, so upped snowfall amounts for interior Southwest AK, with about 3 to 4 inches generally expected. With just minor tweaks to the forecast, confidence remains high going forward the next few days.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

The latest round of low pressure is moving north through the Central Bering. The low center is currently just south of the Pribilofs. Its front extends to the east into Southwest AK, while a deformation band spreads out to its west. This low is expected to move north, then jog to the northeast and move into the Southwest Coast tomorrow. It doesn't look like it will weaken as quickly as expected, so upped winds on its backside today to gale force in the Central Bering. Warmer air with southerly flow and rain exists ahead of this low, while cooler northerly flow is producing snow showers on the backside of the low. After this low exits, the Bering becomes largely quiet, save for a low that enters the Western Bering on Sunday. This low is expected to be a small craft to gale force low. We continue to have high confidence in the forecast, and only minor forecast tweaks needed to be made tonight.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5): Sunday through Tuesday.

Gulf of Alaska: Forecast confidence is good into the weekend. A low moves across the Gulf through Tue. Widespread westerly gale force winds and waves over the Gulf diminish Mon. A second low moves across the Southern Gulf Mon to Tue. Areas of southeasterly small craft with areas of gale force winds move over the Southern Gulf through Tue. Wave heights increase to 20 feet over the Southern Gulf Sun and subside Mon.

Aleutians/Bering: Forecast confidence is good into the weekend. A well-developed low enters the Western Aleutians and Bering and moves along a front into the Northern Bering by Tue. Widespread small craft winds and waves with local areas of gale force winds cross the Aleutians and diminish Sun. Widespread small craft winds persist across the Southern Bering through Tue. Wave heights to 26 feet Pacific side and 18 feet Bering side along the Western and Central Aleutians for Sun and Mon, subsiding Tue. Approaching system brings waves to 20 feet to the Western Aleutians Tue.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7): Monday through Thursday.

Broad upper-level troughing and a closed low over the Bering Sea push towards the AKPEN/Southwest Coast, forcing out the upper- level ridging extending from the Gulf to the Interior. High winds and waves are likely across the Bering and Aleutian Chain starting early next week, spreading to the Southwest Coast and AKPEN by Tuesday as its front pushes onshore. Active weather continues through mid-week as a second system approaches the Western Bering. The associated front moves across the Aleutians, resulting in showery conditions and another round of high winds and waves. Model spread is still relatively large, thus, there is moderate uncertainty on the exact track of this system, however, models are favoring a more eastward push towards the Western Gulf. Should this solution pan out, showery conditions may become likely along the Southcentral Coast, as well as stormy weather across the Gulf of Alaska.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning: 119,120,132,351,352,150,155,165,170-174, 176,412. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . AS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . BB MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/KM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 31 mi56 min NNE 14 G 18 35°F 31°F1017.8 hPa
APXA2 43 mi101 min NE 1.9 34°F 1018 hPa32°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 44 mi56 min SSE 12 1016 hPa
HMSA2 44 mi34 min ESE 6 G 12 43°F 34°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK23 mi33 minN 610.00 miOvercast35°F30°F82%1018.3 hPa
Soldotna, AK23 mi30 minW 410.00 miOvercast32°F29°F88%1019.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4N5N6N6N3NE8NE6NE7N6CalmN3N7N8N4NW5NW5N9N6N6N5N3N9N7N6
1 day agoN15N16N15N11N14N13N11N12N10N8N8N3N4NE4NE4NE5CalmCalmN4CalmCalmNE4CalmN4
2 days agoS20S15S14S20
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Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:34 AM AKST     6.87 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:09 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:36 AM AKST     15.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:41 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:22 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:56 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:10 PM AKST     4.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:09 PM AKST     13.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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119.58778.11012.214.315.615.814.913.311.396.85.24.64.96.38.310.612.313

Tide / Current Tables for Kenai River entrance, Alaska
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Kenai River entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:10 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:48 AM AKST     7.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:43 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:47 AM AKST     17.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:17 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:51 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:24 PM AKST     5.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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13.912.510.89.17.87.48.310.312.715.116.917.416.61512.810.486.15.15.36.68.811.313.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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