Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chenega, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES...

- The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Pribilof Islands through 9PM this evening.

- Heavy snow/blowing snow expected for coastal Southwest Alaska and the Kuskokwim Delta, with blizzard conditions expected along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast.

Very little change to the going forecast from overnight. The large Bering low slowly is approaching the northwest coast of the Pribilof Islands this afternoon. This low will continue to creep to the northwest and towards Nunivak Island, before weakening and moving towards Bristol Bay Friday. A front associated with this low has already moved inland and beyond much of the Bristol Bay region. However, the proximity of the low near the YK Delta, will continue the blizzard and winter storm conditions into the overnight hours for Bethel and and the coast. Some warmer air is expected to filter in behind the front, bringing temperatures up into the upper 20's and low 30's, though mostly remaining at or below freezing for most areas of Southwest. Regardless of warming temperatures, snow showers are expected to continue behind the front, persisting (but lighter overall) through Wednesday morning.
Winds will gradually diminish but are expected to remain gusty through Wednesday morning as well, resulting in brief periods of localized blowing snow at times. Due to the amount of sea ice into the Bering and shorefast ice along the coast, the threat of coastal impacts is minimal at this time.

Despite the high wind warning expiring this afternoon, gusty winds will continue along the Aleutian chain through late Wednesday night as weak ridging noses in near Shemya and will shift east. As the previously mentioned low shifts into the west coast of Alaska, winds will flip to the northwest and usher in the return to colder temperatures by Friday morning.

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.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Saturday through Tuesday)...

The persistent upper level ridge looks to remain anchored in the Pacific with several shortwaves rounding the top of the ridge axis for this weekend. A low pressure system and its accompanying front enter the eastern Bering by Saturday before pushing inland across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula. The main threat with this system at this time looks to be the potential for moderate to heavy snowfall across much of Southwest Alaska and rainfall across the Alaska Peninsula. Only slight weakening of this system is set to occur as the shortwave further deepens as it tracks across the AKPen before the surface low repositions itself and consolidates in the northern Gulf for Sunday. This brings increased chances for snowfall across Southcentral Sunday with models in fairly good agreement for inland locations to see a round of measurable snow. Gusty northwesterly gap winds are likely along the southern AKPen up through the Barren Islands Sunday into Monday as the pressure gradient tightens between the departing low and a ridge building in the Bering. The low continues towards Southeast Alaska by early next week while the Bering ridge slides east to promote mainly dry conditions across Southern Alaska early next week.

Uncertainty and model spread increases heading into early next week as upstream activity in the western Bering picks up.
Deterministic models continue to struggle with the positioning and phasing of several shortwaves rotating around broad upper level troughing centered over Kamchatka. A series of lows pressure systems and fronts will bring an unsettled pattern with periods of precipitation and elevated winds across the Aleutian Chain through early next week, though exact timing and details will become more clear in the coming days.

AVIATION

PANC...IFR conditions in snow is expected once again this evening with another period of heavier snow. For Wednesday, conditions should be better with mainly VFR conditions. The big question for late tonight through Wednesday is whether there will be any snow showers of significance that move across the area. Winds are expected to shift to the south this evening as the next band of snow moves in which will also end the threat of low level wind shear.