Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chenega, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper-level low over the eastern Bering Sea has pushed a shortwave trough across the Alaska Peninsula. By Wednesday morning the low will have weakened and reformed in the Gulf.
Precipitation across Southwest Alaska will dwindle through the day as residual energy weakens and moves farther inland. A ridge will build in behind the low, bringing generally drier conditions across Southwest AK with clearer skies accompanying the ridge.
Periods of stratus and fog may form during the nighttime hours.

Wednesday morning, a North Pacific low will have lifted into the eastern Bering Sea, pushing a front eastward across the Aleutian chain. Widespread gales will quickly weaken through the remainder of the week. Precipitation from this system will spread eastward Thursday afternoon. Colder air wrapping around the western/back side of the low could initially bring snow, but warmer air will follow the low across the Chain, switching back to rain for the southern Bering by Thursday.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Friday through Monday)...

The Alaska upper level weather map will be changing through the weekend. A series of closed upper lows stretch from Siberia to Northwest Alaska to the Southeastern Gulf of Alaska, dissipating on Saturday, while the main lobe angles away over the Aleutians and Bering on Friday. A strong shortwave rotates across the Bering to Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula. A weakening ridge moving over the Aleutians flattens out, leaving a broad low over the region into Monday. A ridge builds into Interior Alaska for Monday. A semi clustered mix of ECMWF / GFS / UKMET and Canadian models carry the main features well, but yields to an ensemble means blend for the new week. Uncertainty reigns supreme with the smaller details on the surface.

A surface low in the Eastern North Pacific leaves behind some lingering rain along the Southcentral Coast Friday. An Aleutian low extends a front over the Northern Bering to Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula. Snow with the front over the Bering, with areas of possible freezing rain South of Nunivak Island Friday and Saturday. Rain accompanies the low and front further South. A well developed North Pacific low brings moderate rain over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula late Sunday into Monday.
Snow changes to rain along Southwest Alaskan Coast and Bristol Bay Saturday through Monday. A moderate low spreads rain over the Western Aleutians on Friday to the Central Aleutians by Saturday, then dissipating. Another well developed low bears down on the Western Aleutians and Bering for the new week.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...Light northerly winds prevail through the TAF period.
Ceilings may intermittently drop below 5000 ft as rain continues through the morning hours. Rain tapers off and becomes showery by early afternoon, allowing ceilings to remain above 5000 ft, though a shower could bring them briefly lower. Precipitation chances end Wednesday morning and ceilings remain above 5000 ft.