Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chenega, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:25AMSunset 6:01PM Thursday February 20, 2020 5:41 AM AKST (14:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:02AMMoonset 2:08PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 410 Am Akst Thu Feb 20 2020
.small craft advisory today...
Today..E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
Tonight..E wind 15 kt becoming variable wind 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
Fri..W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
Fri night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chenega, AK
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location: 60.33, -148.15     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 201427 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 527 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A vertically stacked low over the Bristol Bay area is lifting to the northeast and moving inland. Northerly flow over the western Bering is pulling down cold Arctic air which is wrapping around the backside of the low. The associated front over the Gulf is lifting inland over Southcentral. While areas along the northern Gulf coast have seen additional snowfall, midlevel southeasterly winds have largely kept the Anchorage Bowl dry with downsloping occurring overnight.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model solutions continue to remain in good agreement with synoptic features through Friday night. The biggest forecast challenge will be figuring out details including precipitation types and the timing of arrival of colder air over the southern mainland Thursday night into Friday. By Friday night, models show a low developing south of the western Aleutians and tracking eastward for Saturday, though there is vast disagreement on the strength and track of this low. Overall, forecast confidence is near normal.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the morning. Southeasterly winds aloft will produce wind shear this morning but these midlevel winds are expected to taper by midday. A front lifting inland over Southcentral will bring MVFR conditions in snow this afternoon through midday Friday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). (Today through Friday evening)

Not too much has changed from the previous forecast package, with just a few minor changes made this morning. The first change was to drop the high wind warning for the Turnagain Arm and Upper Hillside areas. McHugh Creek did see peak gusts of 77 mph, with the Upper Hillside having topped out in the mid 60 mph range. The pressure gradient will continue to weaken over the next few hours, with several observation sites in the previously warned area showing a continued downward trend in the wind speeds.

Our attention now turns to getting a better estimate for the Anchorage Bowl and western Kenai Peninsula regarding snowfall timing of increased coverage and intensity. Early this morning, the Kenai Doppler Radar shows a well pronounced boundary stretching from near Clam Gulch, to near Soldotna, to east of Kenai. This is likely an artifact of the down Inlet flow producing a surface pressure trough/convergence axis, which has allowed some localized heavier bursts of snow with some intermittent visibility reductions. However, the latest guidance continues to show the "precipitation shadow" in the lee of the Chugach Mountains continuing for a few more hours.

However, with the winds having decreased earlier than originally thought, one may think a quicker onset of snowfall will commence as the winds aloft also weaken. That is in fact what the latest high resolution models now show, with some of the longer range models also converging on this trend. This is in part due to a series of disturbances in the southwest flow aloft moving in faster, with the first such disturbance located over Kodiak Island now. With winds aloft weakening and the disturbance providing an earlier onset of ascent/lift above the surface, the radar imagery should be increasing with precipitation coverage by late morning. As such, precipitation chances were increased to categorical (above 80%) for the Anchorage Bowl/western Kenai northward into the Matanuska Valley.

For the remainder of the area, the forecast remains on track with the highest snow totals expected over the northern and western Susitna Valley (roughly from Skwentna west and Broad Pass north), where around 6 inches of accumulation is anticipated. This is just below advisory criteria, and will continue to be monitored. For Thompson Pass, we still expect perhaps a brief reduction in visibilities to near 1/2 mile, but this should be limited sufficiently enough in duration to preclude any headline issuance. Finally, for the western Kenai Peninsula through the Matanuska Valley, some warm air may still allow for a brief mix, as forecast soundings do show a shallow/narrow area of above freezing temperatures. That said, the previously mentioned increasing ascent should compensate enough for wet bulb-cooling effects to keep that layer isothermal with better snowflake production, with 2 to 4 inches of snowfall expected.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

The winter weather advisory for Bristol Bay has expired this morning as the heaviest snowfall has passed, allowing low visibility to improve over the region in lingering snow showers. Later this afternoon, another band of snowfall sets up across the Alaska Range. This could bring another round of light snowfall accumulations over interior Bristol Bay on the backside of the low that has departed into Southcentral. A second band will also set up over the Kuskokwim Mountains this afternoon, giving areas from Aniak to Bethel a brief period of light snowfall through late tonight.

As the active pattern moves into Southcentral, snow showers begin to taper off with dry conditions and colder temperatures moving back into Southwest Alaska for the weekend. Wind chills of 40 below zero for the Kuskokwim Delta coast tonight into Friday has led to the issuance of a Wind Chill Advisory as gusty winds move back into the area. The main areas affected will be along the coast from Hooper Bay to Toksook Bay, including Mekoryuk.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A low over Bristol Bay this morning will continue its path eastward out of the region early today. On the backside of this low, expect strong winds and gusts until late tonight along the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, especially through the gaps, as colder air moves in across the Bering Sea. The gusty winds and widespread snow showers could create blowing snow conditions along these areas, but should not have any significant visibility reductions.

Over the western Bering, quiet conditions persists through Friday morning when a small low tries to spin up over the central Bering. Models are still struggling on the strength and placement of this feature and whether a second one tries to develop shortly after. The next significant system moves over the western and central Aleutians on Saturday. Stay tuned for additional forecast updates.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Sat through Mon). Westerly gale force winds are expected on Saturday in the Gulf, which will weaken on Sunday. A low will move from the western and central Aleutians on Saturday eastward across the eastern Aleutians Sunday and into the Gulf on Monday. Gale force winds are expected with this low. Confidence on the timing of this low is fairly high.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Sun through Wed). On Sunday morning the pattern will consist of an upper level trough over southcentral Alaska extending south into the Gulf of Alaska, an upper level ridge over the central and eastern Bering Sea, and an upper low over the Aleutians. The trough over Southcentral will slowly slide east, moving into Canada Sunday night. The Bering ridge will then build over southern Alaska Sunday night, sliding slowly eastward through Wednesday when the axis should be in northwest Canada. The Aleutian low will move east and a bit north through Wednesday, undercutting the ridge over southern Alaska.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Wind Chill Advisory 155. MARINE . Storms 119 125. Gales 128 132 150 155 160 352. Heavy Freezing Spray 150 160 165 179 180 185 411 412 414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . PD SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46076 - Cape Cleare AK 58 mi52 min SE 25 G 31 39°F 42°F16 ft980.7 hPa (-5.6)37°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 69 mi60 min 39°F980.9 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portage, Portage Glacier, AK48 mi1.8 hrsESE 17 G 61 miSnow34°F30°F89%985.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PATO

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------NW4CalmCalmCalmE4E13
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1 day agoSE13
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G27
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G41
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Chenega Island, Dangerous Passage, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Eshamy Bay, Knight Island Passage, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.