Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chenega, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday night)...

A large storm-force low pressure system in the eastern Bering Sea is producing gusty easterly winds across Southwest Alaska, with the strongest winds exiting through Kamishak Gap into the greater Bristol Bay region this morning. Rain and snow has also moved back across much of the area as well. Northerly gale force winds across the Pribilof Islands and eastern Aleutians are bringing in a colder air mass from the western Bering Sea, leading to blowing snow reducing visibility to near one mile. Temperatures remain above freezing which is limiting the potential for visibility reduction, but cooling temperatures later this morning may allow visibility to drop as low as one-half mile. Winds diminish over the next several hours across Southwest Alaska, but winds remain enhanced across the Bering Sea/Pribilofs through this afternoon before diminishing and shifting westerly.

Light to moderate snowfall over Nunivak Island and for the Kuskokwim Delta coast north of Kipnuk will allow for several more inches of accumulation through the morning hours before precipitation tapers off to showers. Sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph along the coast is also leading to blowing snow this morning.
With winds expected to diminish over the next several hours, the blowing snow threat will quickly diminish. Blowing snow may make a return this evening as the Bering low lifts northward, bringing a push of southwesterly winds and renewed snow showers. However, current thinking is that snow intensity will be too light to lead to visibilities as low as one half mile for any sustained period of time. The showery nature of precipitation may also contribute to limiting the threat.

Southwesterly winds contribute to continued coastal flooding potential, with a Coastal Flood Advisory remaining in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta coast, particularly between Kipnuk and Kwigillingok coincident with high tide today and Monday evenings.
An additional High Surf Advisory has been issued as the strong onshore push of winds through Bristol Bay will bring elevated water levels there as well for high tide this afternoon and early Monday morning. The main threat with this is likely to be high surf and potential for coastal erosion along the Bristol Bay coast.

Out west, a compact gale-force low tracks near the western Aleutians. With a cold air mass moving into the western Bering Sea, there is also potential for blowing snow for those islands this evening through Monday morning, however the showery nature of precipitation will likely make visibility reductions below one mile intermittent. The cold air mass spreads across the Bering Sea and into Southwest Alaska with the northward exit of the large low Sunday night, dropping temperatures into the 20s for Monday and into the teens Monday night. Expect this colder air mass to also bring drier conditions across the region as well for the beginning of next week. The gale force low over the western Bering tracks into the northern Bering for Tuesday, spreading snow showers as far as the Pribilof Islands.

Quesada/Eovino

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

On the Alaska Weather map, an elongated upper level trough stretching from the Russian Far East across the Aleutians and Bering. This trough gets a little boost from passing shortwaves to reorient over Southwest Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska for midweek, before continuing its Eastward track into Canada by Thursday. An upper ridge building across the Western Aleutians Tuesday moves to extend across the Gulf of Alaska and Western Alaska into Northeast Russia through the end of the week.
Deterministic GFS and ECMWF carry the features and changes well through Thursday with the Canadian models joining up into the weekend.

A decaying surface low on the Southcentral coast spreads locally heavy rains along the coastal locations, with locally heavy snow further inland and over higher elevations through Wednesday. A second low over the Shumagin Islands brings mostly rain with snow over Bristol Bay from the Eastern Aleutians, Alaskan Peninsula and Kodiak Island through midweek, before moving over the Kenai Peninsula before dissipating over Prince William Sound Thursday.
Bands of snow progress across the Bering through Thursday. A well developed North Pacific low and fronts spreads snow changing to rain across the Western and Central Aleutians Wednesday and continues over The Bering, Southwest Alaska and the AKPEN by Friday. Gusty winds with gale force gusts work their way from the Central Aleutians over the AKPEN and Bering through Friday.

AVIATION

PANC...The big story for the TAF forecast remains significant winds. Mountain waves coming down the Chugach Mountains have led to strong and erratic winds overnight. This will continue until frontal passage, which is roughly around 18Z. Then expect the Turnagain Arm jet to bend into the terminal and winds will become more consistent out of the southeast. Winds will diminish this evening as pressure gradients slacken, but then strengthen again out of the south overnight tonight into Monday morning as cold air advection moves up Cook Inlet.

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon due to the strong southeast flow across the mountains. The low level flow will then gradually veer toward the south this evening, leading to lowering ceilings. Weak upper level short-waves will cross the region tonight through early Monday and combine with instability to produce showers. This could lower ceiling/vis to MVFR at times, though think the gusty winds will largely keep ceilings above 3000 feet most of the time.