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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
.small craft advisory Thursday...
Today..W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near whittier in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 301435 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 535 AM AKST Thu Nov 30 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Model guidance continue to improve on the track and strength of a low currently in the central Gulf of Alaska that will weaken from 982 mb located near 58N and 148W early this morning to an open wave as it pushes north into Western Prince William Sound this afternoon. This low will bring yet another round of rain and snow to Eastern Kenai Peninsula and along the coast. Snow rates will pick up again this morning with 1 inch per hour rates expected through Turnagain Pass and where 8 to 10 inches of snow is expected through late this evening. Heavy snow is also expected in Whittier and along Turnagain Arm where up to 6 inches of snow is expected through this evening. Gusty winds will develop along the Anchorage Hillside as well as Turnagain Arm this afternoon. These downsloping winds will win over upper level lift and will limit snowfall in the Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage area as well as the MatSu today as the low weakens and makes landfall as a trough over Prince William Sound this evening. Expect Gale force winds in the northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince William Sound to weaken to small craft as the low pushes north and weakens this evening.

A second complex low pressure system in the Northern Pacific has the models baffled on position and track over the next several days with large spread on the track and to a lesser degree the strength of the low. Regardless of the track of the low which at this time takes it east along the southern portions of the Gulf of Alaska, the pressure gradient between the low and a high pressure system over the Yukon will help enhance off shore flow and gap flows along the northern Gulf of Alaska Friday and into Saturday while the precip shield with this low clips Kodiak Island and the Southern Kenai Peninsula and stays south of Prince William Sound and the Gulf Coast. A drier and colder pattern with more seasonable temperatures and gusty outflow winds will lead us into the weekend.

-CC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday night)...

A longwave upper-level trough with multiple embedded lows stretches along the Aleutians and into the Gulf and central mainland Alaska. The main embedded upper low and its attendant surface low are located near Shemya this morning, while a secondary low has formed south of the Pribilof Islands. A third low south of the Alaska Peninsula is exiting into the Gulf today.
This system continues to produce widespread precipitation mostly in the form of rain, although a rain/snow mix is occurring ahead of the front for the Pribilof Islands, eastern Aleutians, and AKPen this morning. Widespread easterly gales are located across the much of the Bering while westerly-southwesterly gales blanket the Aleutian Chain. A swath of storm force winds over the Pacific waters just south of the western Aleutians will diminish to high end gales later this morning. Generally active weather will continue across the Bering and Aleutians into the weekend as the main low near Shemya lingers and slowly drifts into the North Pacific by the end of the weekend. The low currently south of the Pribilof Islands is expected to weaken as it tracks east towards Southwest on Saturday, enhancing changes for scattered precipitation across land. By late Saturday, a ridge of high pressure nudges eastward into the Bering and western Aleutians.

As for Southwest weather, intermittent light snow will continue over interior Southwest through Friday. Expect mostly overcast skies and seasonal temperatures to set in through the weekend, with increasing chances for coastal snow showers as the trough over the Bering slides east.

-AF

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
Sunday through Wednesday

A broad upper level trough extends across the Bering into the Gulf of Alaska for Sunday. A North Pacific low merges with a low in the Eastern Bering through Tuesday, which continues into the Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday. Widespread precipitation with periods of locally heavier precipitation spreads across the Gulf Monday, extending inland through Wednesday. Large areas of gale force winds develop along the Alaska Peninsula and move over the Gulf beginning Monday. Chances of higher surf along the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula Monday through the forecast period. High end gales force gap winds around Kodiak Island expected Monday through Wednesday, diminishing, but linger along the Alaska Peninsula through Wednesday.

A short wave ridge pushes across the Bering for Sunday, briefly breaking up the trough, but flattening out through Wednesday.
Further west, another closed low exits the Russian Far East sets up its Eastward push. Gusty winds approaching gale force moves into the Western Aleutians and Bering.

Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions Thursday morning, then MVFR to IFR for Thursday afternoon as a light wave of snow passes through the terminal area. VFR conditions return Thursday evening and persist through Saturday afternoon.

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Chenega Island, Dangerous Passage, Prince William Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Eshamy Bay, Knight Island Passage, Prince William Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

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