Sunrise 5:24 AM   Sunset 10:27 PM Moonrise 3:17 AM   Moonset 10:48 PM

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PKZ801 Etolin Strait To Dall Point Out To 15 Nm- 343 Am Akdt Wed May 8 2024
Today - N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Tonight - NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.Thu - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Thu night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fri - N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fri night - N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Sat - N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Sun - NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

FXAK69 PAFG 081144 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 344 AM AKDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
Little in the way of change is anticipated over the next several days as generally unsettled weather conditions persist. Snow and rain chances continue as a series of disturbances push across the state. Strong southerly gap flow develops in the Alaska Range tonight into early Thursday morning and a Wind Advisory has been issued for the eastern Alaska Range north of Trims Camp. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Yukon River at Circle.

DISCUSSION
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 512 dam (decameter) low near the Pribilofs weakens as it moves southeast to Sand Point Thursday morning, weakening further into an open wave near Cordova Friday morning before lifting north across the Alaska Range and Interior through Saturday. A shortwave stretches east from Lake Minchumina to Eagle to a 537 dam low in the central Northwest Territories. This shortwave lifts northwest across the Interior today with a closed 533 dam low developing near Allakaket this afternoon. The new low continues northwest to be centered over the Western Brooks Range Thursday morning to near Kotzebue Sound Friday morning, and then the western Seward Peninsula by Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, the low over the Northwest Territories lifts northeast to the northeastern Northwest Territories Thursday afternoon and weakening through Friday. As this low tracks northeast, it pushes weak ridging over the Arctic waters north with a 549 dam ridge developing near Banks Island this afternoon that slowly moves south southwest through Friday. A 525 dam low over the southern Kamchatka Peninsula this afternoon dives southeast quickly to be near Adak Thursday afternoon to near Sand Point Friday afternoon.

At the surface, a 996 mb low 150 NM northwest of the Pribilofs weakens to 1000 mb and moves to be 150 NM southeast of the Pribilofs this afternoon, and over Sand Point Thursday morning at 1004 mb, the low then weakens as it moves east across the Alaska Peninsula. A trough extends northwest along the Arctic Coast from a 1000 mb low over the central Northwest Territories to a 1010 mb low 25 NM north of Prudhoe Bay. The low north of Prudhoe Bay moves west to be 25 NM north of Nuiqsut by this afternoon, to 50 NM south of Utqiagvik Thursday morning, and then weakens. A thermal low pressure trough over the Tanana Valley will remain in place through tonight then shift north over the northeast Interior on Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of fog and stratus persist along the Arctic coast this morning. Gradient tightens over the northwest Arctic coast this afternoon into Thursday, resulting in northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph. Elsewhere, winds of less than 15 mph are expected. A series of disturbances moving across the Brooks Range through Friday continue snow chances. 1 to 2 inches of snow expected through Thursday with an additional inch possible Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures trend upwards the next few days with highs for most areas in the 20s and 30s in the eastern Arctic Plains and Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Winds pick up a bit between Point Hope and St Lawrence Island today and Thursday as a low tracks along the Aleutians. Expect winds in the 15 to 25 mph range in this area today and Thursday.
Elsewhere, winds will be less than 15 mph. General troughing aloft and energy moving through the trough will continue to support rain and snow showers through the week. Highest precip chances will be south of Galena and in the Brooks Range this afternoon and tonight, with lower chances Thursday into Friday. The best precip chances today and Wednesday will be south of Galena and in the Brooks Range, where up to 2 inches of snow accumulation is possible. High temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s across the Western Interior with temperatures in the mid 20s to near 40 along the coast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Unsettled weather continues across the Interior the next several days as disturbances aloft support shower activity. A mix of snow, rain, and a rain-snow mix is expected. For valley locations, including Fairbanks, mostly rain is expected, through rain could transition to snow overnight Thursday into early Friday morning.
Snowfall amounts generally an inch or less through Thursday, primarily over the higher elevations, with up to 2 inches near the Brooks Range. Thursday night into Friday snowfall amounts am inch or less, except in higher elevations where up to 2 inches are possible. Weak southerly gap flow is ongoing in the Alaska Range passes and is expected to increase tonight into early Thursday morning, especially over the eastern Alaska Range where winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph are expected. Issued a Wind Advisory for the eastern Alaska Range north of Trims Camp from 10 pm tonight through 10 am Thursday. Winds will diminish in the Alaska Range through the day Thursday. Elsewhere, winds will generally be less than 15 mph. High temperatures largely in the 50s to near 60 today and Thursday with cooler temperatures at higher elevations.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to indicate persistent broad upper level troughing over much of the forecast area through the extended forecast. Guidance also suggests periodic intrusions of upper level ridging from Canada into the Eastern Interior. This pattern supports scattered shower activity across northern Alaska and energy moves through the trough.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
A series of disturbances will lift northwest across the Interior through the end of the work supporting isolated to scattered showers each day. High temperatures largely in the 50s to near 60 through Friday. Minimum relative humidity values will drop to 20 to 25 percent this afternoon from Healy to Fairbanks and east to near Delta Junction. Lower relative humidity values also expected today near Eagle and portions of the Upper Tanana Valley. On Thursday minimum relative humidity values of 20 to 25 percent will be confined from Donnelly Dome to Eielson to near Dot Lake. Winds generally less than 15 mph. Southerly gap flow in the Alaska Range increases tonight, especially over the eastern Alaska Range, where wind gusts to 60 mph are expected through early Thursday morning. Winds will diminish through the day Thursday. At this time it looks like the strongest winds will be tonight and early Thursday morning and not during the driest part of the day,so not anticipating Red Flag conditions at this time. However, near Red Flag conditions from Delta Junction to Donnelly Dome are possible early Thursday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY
As of 2 pm Tuesday, ice was moving past Circle and the break up front with high water is upstream but approaching Circle. No overbank flooding has been reported yet. As the breakup front moves downstream, it is likely that small jams may form and release, leading to fluctuating water levels and potential minor or moderate flooding at Circle today into tonight.

The break up front on the Yukon River will approach Ft Yukon on Wednesday or Thursday. Downstream of Ft Yukon most ice remains in place on the Yukon River at this time.

The Tanana and Upper Kuskokwim River are mostly open.

Rivers north of of the Yukon River have mostly intact ice.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.

Kokechik Bay
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Wed -- 12:06 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:55 AM AKDT     7.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:08 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:29 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:58 AM AKDT     2.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:26 PM AKDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:56 PM AKDT     -1.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:33 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

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