Sunday, April5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Toksook Bay, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 8:59PM Sunday April 5, 2020 10:19 AM AKDT (18:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:20PMMoonset 5:26AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Toksook Bay, AK
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location: 60.47, -165.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK69 PAFG 051148 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 348 AM AKDT Sun Apr 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. The active and progressive weather pattern continues through Monday as weather system moves across the state. Widespread precip continues across much of Northern Alaska today, with heavy snow falling in the favored upslope areas, and rain mixing in with the snow primarily east of Tanana and as far north as Fort Yukon. The rain-snow mix will switch over to all snow as a cold front pushes east across the Interior today. Strong and gusty winds are occurring on the back side of the low from the Bering Strait to the Y-K Delta and are expected to continue through the day, diminishing tonight. The strongest winds will occur from the Y-K Delta north across Norton Sound to Shaktoolik this morning, where gusts to 55 mph are expected. Southwest winds increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph across the Interior, causing blowing snow over summits. A coastal surge will impact the West Coast with the possibility of water moving overtop the ice and then inland through tonight.

DISCUSSION. Aloft, at 500 mb, a ridge axis stretches from Mackenzie Bay southwest to Eagle to McCarthy and into the Gulf of Alaska, while a deep longwave trough extends south across the Chukotsk Peninsula and the Bering Sea. As the longwave trough moves eastward it will push the ridge axis eastward. A strong shortwave trough dives over the West Coast today, pushing a 504 dam low over the Seward Peninsula this morning and over the Western Interior by this afternoon. The low continues eastward Monday and Monday night across the Central and Eastern Interior before lifting northeast Tuesday to move across the Northeastern Brooks Range and into the Beaufort Sea. A second shortwave moves southeast out of the Gulf of Anadyr Sunday night and continues southeast across the Central and Eastern Bering Sea Monday and Monday night. As the trough moves eastward, much colder air will surge eastward across northern Alaska.

Surface . A 987 mb low W of Kivalina this morning will move northeast today to be a 986 mb low centered near Utqiagvik this afternoon, continuing northeast to be a 990 mb low located 150 nm north of Kaktovik Monday morning. A 983 mb low 50 nm west of Nome this morning will move northeast to be a 986 mb low 50 nm W of Deering by this afternoon. The low will weaken Sunday night to a trough as it moves eastward across the Western Interior, continuing northeast over the Eastern Brooks Range Monday night.

Models . 00Z model suite initialized well against the 00Z RAOBS and the 00Z surface obs. Models are in fair agreement through today, but begin to diverge with the placement and strength of the upper level low that tracks east across the Interior by Monday afternoon. Although the latest model runs have trended further north with the system than the last few days, there is almost a 200 nm difference in the location of the low, with the GFS the furthest north, the Canadian and ECMWF in the middle, and the NAM the furthest south. At the surface, differences in model solutions appear earlier as tonight, with the low that moves from the Seward Peninsula to the Interior and with the low that moves off the Arctic Coast. Leaned towards the NAM for winds, with local edits to increase winds across the Y-K Delta and across the Interior. Blended in the SREF for pops to capture higher values.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Unsettled conditions continue across the region as several fronts move across. The fronts will produce periods of snow. From Utqiagvik west, 3 to 5 inches of snow will fall through Monday, while east of Utqiagvik 1 to 3 inches of snow are anticipated through Monday. The heaviest snowfall will occur on the south facing slope of the Brooks Range. Southerly gap winds continue in the passes of the Eastern Brooks Range today, with gusts to 40 mph possible, causing blowing snow. Gusty south winds develop in the passes of the eastern Brooks Range once again on today, with gusts to 40 mph possible. Southwest winds increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph tonight east of Utqiagvik. The strongest winds will be east of Deadhorse. Confidence is low with the strength and exact location of the strongest winds as model guidance has a wide spread. Maintained the Winter Weather Advisories for blowing snow for zone 204 and 206. A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow may be needed for zone 203, but held off on it due to low confidence at this time.

West Coast and Western Interior: Widespread precip continues across the region today. Snow is expected to be the dominant precip type as cold air is moving in behind a front. Strong and gusty winds are occurring on the back side of the low from the Bering Strait to the Y-K Delta and are expected to continue through the day, diminishing tonight. The strongest winds will occur from the Y-K Delta north across Norton Sound to Shaktoolik this morning, where gusts to 55 mph are expected. Winds will diminish tonight and snow will taper off from the west to the east tonight and Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior: A series of weather systems moving across the Interior will bring widespread precipitation through Monday, with snow tapering off Monday night and Tuesday. Rain may mix in with snow primarily east of Tanana and as far north as Fort Yukon. The rain-snow mix will switch over to all snow after a cold front pushes east. The Middle Tanana Valley could see 2 to 5 inches of snow on today and an additional 1 to 2 inches on Monday, with the highest snowfall amounts generally east of Fairbanks. Southwest winds increase tonight into Monday, with gusts to 30 mph. This will result in blowing and drifting snow, especially across the summits of the Interior. Along the Alaska Highway from Dot Lake to the AlCan border, northwest winds will develop this afternoon and are expected to gust to 35 mph. As the precip changes over to snow this evening, blowing and drifting snow is expected with visibility reduced to one half mile at times. In the passes of the Alaska Range, southerly gap winds will diminish through the morning hours.

Coastal Hazard Potential . The ongoing strong weather system that is currently affecting the West Coast will continue through tonight. This storm has the potential to cause elevated water levels along the coast. As water levels rise there is the potential to push water on top of the ice through open leads and along the coast where shorefast ice is breaking up. Areas around Norton Sound and along the Yukon Delta will be most susceptible as the low moves inland.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211- AKZ213-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215- AKZ216-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ224.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

APR 20


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for 5NV

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Tide / Current Tables for Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska
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Kokechik Bay
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Sun -- 05:42 AM AKDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:11 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:33 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:17 PM AKDT     6.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:19 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:35 PM AKDT     1.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.24.53.32.110.30.10.71.93.556.16.66.55.74.63.42.31.61.52.13.24.35.2

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.