Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toksook Bay, AK
May 6, 2024 8:57 PM AKDT (04:57 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:30 AM Sunset 10:21 PM Moonrise 3:17 AM Moonset 6:57 PM |
PKZ180 Kuskokwim Delta And Etolin Strait- 347 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
.heavy freezing spray warning Thursday - .
Today - NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
Tonight - N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Freezing spray.
Thu - N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Thu night - N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
Fri through Sat - N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
Sun - N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
PKZ100
No data
No data
FXAK69 PAFG 062355 AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 355 PM AKDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
Snow and blowing snow is causing reduced visibility from the Bering Strait to Point Hope and east along the Brooks Range to Atigun Pass. These conditions will improve late this evening as winds decrease.
A band of rain and snow (with all snow above 2000 ft and north of the Yukon River) that lies from Denali to Atigun Pass will move to the Yukon River Bridge to Utqiagvik by 4am Tue, then diminish from the south Tue morning. Expect 1-3 inches of snow from Finger Mountain to Utqiagvik by Tue, heaviest in the Central Brooks Range.
A second band will bring rain and snow to the SE Interior Tue, spreading over the Tanana Yukon Uplands and the Dalton highway north to Atigun Pass Tue night, and over the Northern Interior and North Slope from Utqiagvik east on Wed, diminishing from the south Wed night and Thu. Expect 1-2 inches of snow above 2000 ft and north of the Arctic Circle with this Tue PM into Wed and could see 2-4 inches in the White Mountain above 2000 ft. Could see 2-4 inches over the North Slope from Utqiagvik east Tue night into Thu. Wed night and Thu could see rain/snow mix along south slopes of the Alaska Range, with rain and snow moving over the SE Interior Thu night and Fri.
Temperatures are well below normal along the West Coast will moderate slowly from Wed into the weekend. Temperatures near normal on the North Slope will above normal from Thu through the weekend. Temperature in the Interior are well below normal today, will warm slightly but remain below normal on Tue, warm to near normal on Wed and then warm above normal on Thu before cooling back to normal Fri into the weekend.
Moderate southerly Chinook winds are expected to develop along the Alaska Range Wed night and continue into Thu AM before weakening Thu PM.
At the surface...
An Arctic front stretches from Eagle to Huslia to Togiak will move to Arctic Village to Ambler to King Salmon by 4pm Tue, and to Barter Island to Noatak to Illiamna by 4pm Wed. A polar occluded front from Denali to Arctic Village will move to Anaktuvuk Pass to Utqiagvik by 4am Tue then weaken.
High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of AK will persist into Wed then weaken.
DISCUSSION
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z. Models show similar solutions aloft through 4am Tue, then the GFS become an outlier moving the Low aloft NW across the Interior more quickly, weaker and further NW than the other models. The ECMWF and Canadian models have pretty good similarity aloft through Thu with the low aloft moving to near Utqiagvik by 4pm Thu, with a short wave extending east to Inuvik. Prefer a blend of the ECMWF and Canadian Models for features aloft through Thu, and will note that the 12Z NAM was fairly similar as well.
A short wave trough from Denali to Arctic Village will move to Anaktuvuk Pass to Utqiagvik by 4am Tue then move NW.
A second short wave trough over SE AK will move over the SE Interior by 4am Tue, and to Fairbanks to Old Crow by 4pm Wed.
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over Western Alaska and a strong ridge over Western Canada. This pattern retrogrades over the next several days as the long wave trough moves over the Bering and Western AK by Wed and the ridge builds over NE AK. This will cause SE flow with several short waves moving NW across Interior AK. Each of the short waves will bring several inches of snow or mixed rain and snow to the Interior and North Slope through Wed, with moderate strength southerly chinook winds developing across the Alaska Range Wed night and continuing into Thu AM. This will cause a drying and warming trend over the SE Interior Wed into Thu.
850 mb temperatures range from +2C along the ALCAN Border to -20C along the West Coast. Temps increase to -10C along the West Coast with 0C pushing west over the Eastern Interior on Tue. By Wed the West Coast increases to -6C to -8C while the Interior remains about the same. Wed night and Thu will mainly see warming over the SE Interior in the Chinook area.
With precipitation, models show similar solutions through 4am Tue, then the GFS moves the precip with the second short wave NW more quickly than the other models. Prefer the slower ECMWF, Canadian and NAM precip solutions. Will use a blend of the NAM, ECMWF and Canadian for precip areal coverage and amounts.
Highlights include: A band of snow from the Bering Strait to Point Hope will move west of the Coast tonight. A band of rain and snow with the first short wave (with all snow above 2000 ft and north of the Yukon River) that lies from Denali to Atigun Pass will move to the Yukon River Bridge to Utqiagvik by 4am Tue, then diminish from the south Tue morning. Expect 1-3 inches of snow from Finger Mountain to Utqiagvik, heaviest in the Central Brooks Range. The second short wave will bring rain and snow to the SE Interior Tue, spreading over the Tanana Yukon Uplands the the Dalton highway north to Atigun Pass Tue night and over the Northern Interior and North Slope from Utqiagvik east on Wed, diminishing from the south Wed night and Thu. Expect 1-2 inches of snow above 2000 ft and north of the Arctic Circle with this Tue PM into Wed and could see 2-4 inches in the White Mountain above 2000 ft. Could see 2-4 inches over the North Slope from Utqiagvik east Tue night into Thu. Wed night and Thu could see rain/snow mix along south slopes of the Alaska Range, with rain and snow over the SE Interior Thu night and Fri.
At the surface at 15Z, Models verify well on most features. The NAM, ECMWF and Canadian models keep the surface low over the SE Interior a bit deeper than the GFS on Tue and then keep it so as they move it to near Demarcation Point on Wed. Prefer a blend of the 12Z NAM and Canadian models for winds. Highlights include: NE winds 15-30kt from the Bering Strait to Point Hope and along the Brooks Range east to Atigun Pass will decrease tonight. South winds increasing to 30 mph gusting to 50-60 mph through Alaska range Passes Wed night and Thu AM, then decreasing Thu PM.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
FIRE WEATHER
Cool and wet conditions continue today into Wed AM, with drying and warming Wed along with southerly Chinook winds gusting to 50 mph along the Alaska Range Wed night into Thu AM. At this time it looks like strong winds will be late Wed night and early Thu AM so not anticipating Red Flag conditions at this time, but need to keep an eye on Wed night and Thu.
HYDROLOGY
As of mid-day Sunday, not much change has been reported and the Yukon River breakup front is roughly 30 miles upstream of Circle, near Coal Creek. There is a 20 mile run of dense ice above the breakup front. Residents of Circle should be aware that the breakup front is approaching. No overbank flooding has been reported yet. However as the breakup front moves downstream, it is likely that small jams may form and release, leading to fluctuating water levels and potential minor or moderate flooding.
There have been now reports on changes to this situation from today.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-809-812-820-821.
Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-816-850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803-852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805-810.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-810.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-817-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-856-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 355 PM AKDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
Snow and blowing snow is causing reduced visibility from the Bering Strait to Point Hope and east along the Brooks Range to Atigun Pass. These conditions will improve late this evening as winds decrease.
A band of rain and snow (with all snow above 2000 ft and north of the Yukon River) that lies from Denali to Atigun Pass will move to the Yukon River Bridge to Utqiagvik by 4am Tue, then diminish from the south Tue morning. Expect 1-3 inches of snow from Finger Mountain to Utqiagvik by Tue, heaviest in the Central Brooks Range.
A second band will bring rain and snow to the SE Interior Tue, spreading over the Tanana Yukon Uplands and the Dalton highway north to Atigun Pass Tue night, and over the Northern Interior and North Slope from Utqiagvik east on Wed, diminishing from the south Wed night and Thu. Expect 1-2 inches of snow above 2000 ft and north of the Arctic Circle with this Tue PM into Wed and could see 2-4 inches in the White Mountain above 2000 ft. Could see 2-4 inches over the North Slope from Utqiagvik east Tue night into Thu. Wed night and Thu could see rain/snow mix along south slopes of the Alaska Range, with rain and snow moving over the SE Interior Thu night and Fri.
Temperatures are well below normal along the West Coast will moderate slowly from Wed into the weekend. Temperatures near normal on the North Slope will above normal from Thu through the weekend. Temperature in the Interior are well below normal today, will warm slightly but remain below normal on Tue, warm to near normal on Wed and then warm above normal on Thu before cooling back to normal Fri into the weekend.
Moderate southerly Chinook winds are expected to develop along the Alaska Range Wed night and continue into Thu AM before weakening Thu PM.
At the surface...
An Arctic front stretches from Eagle to Huslia to Togiak will move to Arctic Village to Ambler to King Salmon by 4pm Tue, and to Barter Island to Noatak to Illiamna by 4pm Wed. A polar occluded front from Denali to Arctic Village will move to Anaktuvuk Pass to Utqiagvik by 4am Tue then weaken.
High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of AK will persist into Wed then weaken.
DISCUSSION
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z. Models show similar solutions aloft through 4am Tue, then the GFS become an outlier moving the Low aloft NW across the Interior more quickly, weaker and further NW than the other models. The ECMWF and Canadian models have pretty good similarity aloft through Thu with the low aloft moving to near Utqiagvik by 4pm Thu, with a short wave extending east to Inuvik. Prefer a blend of the ECMWF and Canadian Models for features aloft through Thu, and will note that the 12Z NAM was fairly similar as well.
A short wave trough from Denali to Arctic Village will move to Anaktuvuk Pass to Utqiagvik by 4am Tue then move NW.
A second short wave trough over SE AK will move over the SE Interior by 4am Tue, and to Fairbanks to Old Crow by 4pm Wed.
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over Western Alaska and a strong ridge over Western Canada. This pattern retrogrades over the next several days as the long wave trough moves over the Bering and Western AK by Wed and the ridge builds over NE AK. This will cause SE flow with several short waves moving NW across Interior AK. Each of the short waves will bring several inches of snow or mixed rain and snow to the Interior and North Slope through Wed, with moderate strength southerly chinook winds developing across the Alaska Range Wed night and continuing into Thu AM. This will cause a drying and warming trend over the SE Interior Wed into Thu.
850 mb temperatures range from +2C along the ALCAN Border to -20C along the West Coast. Temps increase to -10C along the West Coast with 0C pushing west over the Eastern Interior on Tue. By Wed the West Coast increases to -6C to -8C while the Interior remains about the same. Wed night and Thu will mainly see warming over the SE Interior in the Chinook area.
With precipitation, models show similar solutions through 4am Tue, then the GFS moves the precip with the second short wave NW more quickly than the other models. Prefer the slower ECMWF, Canadian and NAM precip solutions. Will use a blend of the NAM, ECMWF and Canadian for precip areal coverage and amounts.
Highlights include: A band of snow from the Bering Strait to Point Hope will move west of the Coast tonight. A band of rain and snow with the first short wave (with all snow above 2000 ft and north of the Yukon River) that lies from Denali to Atigun Pass will move to the Yukon River Bridge to Utqiagvik by 4am Tue, then diminish from the south Tue morning. Expect 1-3 inches of snow from Finger Mountain to Utqiagvik, heaviest in the Central Brooks Range. The second short wave will bring rain and snow to the SE Interior Tue, spreading over the Tanana Yukon Uplands the the Dalton highway north to Atigun Pass Tue night and over the Northern Interior and North Slope from Utqiagvik east on Wed, diminishing from the south Wed night and Thu. Expect 1-2 inches of snow above 2000 ft and north of the Arctic Circle with this Tue PM into Wed and could see 2-4 inches in the White Mountain above 2000 ft. Could see 2-4 inches over the North Slope from Utqiagvik east Tue night into Thu. Wed night and Thu could see rain/snow mix along south slopes of the Alaska Range, with rain and snow over the SE Interior Thu night and Fri.
At the surface at 15Z, Models verify well on most features. The NAM, ECMWF and Canadian models keep the surface low over the SE Interior a bit deeper than the GFS on Tue and then keep it so as they move it to near Demarcation Point on Wed. Prefer a blend of the 12Z NAM and Canadian models for winds. Highlights include: NE winds 15-30kt from the Bering Strait to Point Hope and along the Brooks Range east to Atigun Pass will decrease tonight. South winds increasing to 30 mph gusting to 50-60 mph through Alaska range Passes Wed night and Thu AM, then decreasing Thu PM.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
FIRE WEATHER
Cool and wet conditions continue today into Wed AM, with drying and warming Wed along with southerly Chinook winds gusting to 50 mph along the Alaska Range Wed night into Thu AM. At this time it looks like strong winds will be late Wed night and early Thu AM so not anticipating Red Flag conditions at this time, but need to keep an eye on Wed night and Thu.
HYDROLOGY
As of mid-day Sunday, not much change has been reported and the Yukon River breakup front is roughly 30 miles upstream of Circle, near Coal Creek. There is a 20 mile run of dense ice above the breakup front. Residents of Circle should be aware that the breakup front is approaching. No overbank flooding has been reported yet. However as the breakup front moves downstream, it is likely that small jams may form and release, leading to fluctuating water levels and potential minor or moderate flooding.
There have been now reports on changes to this situation from today.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801-809-812-820-821.
Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-816-850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803-852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805-810.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-810.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-817-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-856-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| PAOO TOKSOOK BAY,AK | 6 sm | 61 min | NW 16 | 9 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow | 21°F | 14°F | 73% | 29.71 |
Kokechik Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:48 AM AKDT 6.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:16 AM AKDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:35 AM AKDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:49 AM AKDT 1.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:41 PM AKDT 6.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 PM AKDT -0.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:07 PM AKDT Moonset
Mon -- 11:27 PM AKDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:48 AM AKDT 6.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:16 AM AKDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:35 AM AKDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:49 AM AKDT 1.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:41 PM AKDT 6.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 PM AKDT -0.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:07 PM AKDT Moonset
Mon -- 11:27 PM AKDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 6 |
| 1 am |
| 6.2 |
| 2 am |
| 5.8 |
| 3 am |
| 4.9 |
| 4 am |
| 3.7 |
| 5 am |
| 2.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.8 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 2 |
| 9 am |
| 3 |
| 10 am |
| 4.2 |
| 11 am |
| 5.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 6 |
| 1 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 5.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| -0 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 4 |
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