Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:24AM||Sunset 9:40PM||Thursday August 22, 2019 9:32 AM AKDT (17:32 UTC)||Moonrise 9:41PM||Moonset 1:07PM||Illumination 54%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Toksook Bay, AKHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for -  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxak69 pafg 221140|
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
340 am akdt Thu aug 22 2019
Synopsis... A weak front in the interior will bring some isolated
to scattered showers today. A weather front in the arctic will
bring showers to the coastal areas and lower elevations with snow
developing above 2000 ft in the central and eastern brooks range.
Snow accumulation of up to 4 inches expected by Friday morning
will impact travel along the dalton highway and outdoor activities
in and near the brooks range. Not much for precipitation out west,
but a brisk north flow will bring cooler temperatures and some
gusty winds to the outer capes and coastal areas.
Models... 22 06z solutions appear to be in good agreement for the
short term and even into the midrange. Broad cyclonic flow over
the area will persist with it becoming more zonal as it extends
south over the alaska range later in the solution. It is going to
be a pretty active pattern, so do not expect that the models have
a handle on all the shortwaves that may be moving through in the
flow, so do expect to see some rather significant changes from
run to run as they pick them out of the flow. I do not expect any
significant changes in the big picture. Will be leaning quite a
bit on the current forecast database, and making only minor
changes to the near term to maintain continuity. Midrange will
lean a bit more on the most current solutions, and use the SREF to
ensure the precipitation probabilities are keeping up with the
changes in the solutions. Will lean on the namdng for winds.
Aloft... At 500 hpa... Broad cyclonic pattern will persist. A 521
dam low near the north pole is spinning a shortwave south over the
the eastern arctic coast today as a 539 dam low that was over the
coast moves east over the canadian coast. The shortwave over the
eastern arctic coast is connected to a 547 dam low that developed
over the chukchi sea and will move over st lawrence island this
morning then south over the pribilof island by Friday morning. The
shortwave will dig south as the low moves south, and east as it
moves through the flow. A convergence zone will develop northeast
to southwest across the brooks range by late this afternoon and
shifts south of the brooks range over the interior this evening.
The low near the north pole moves southwest to 500 nm north of
point barrow by Saturday morning, and the shortwave will move east
of the alcan border. The main low will move southeast over the
beaufort sea to 400 nm north of mackenzie bay by Sunday morning as
another strong shortwave moves over the northwest arctic coast
and chukchi sea. The shortwave will continue to spin southeast as
it digs south over the west coast and western interior Sunday. The
shortwave will move east over the remainder of the forecast area
Sunday and Sunday night. At 850 hpa... 0c isotherm lies from dawson
yt to arctic village and west along the crest of the brooks range
this morning. It will reorient a bit to lie along the crest of
the brooks range from old crow yt west with colder air pushing
south over the chukchi sea tonight. By Saturday morning the 0c
isotherm will lie from old crow to minchumina to marshall to st
matthew island with a few pockets of slightly warmer air north of
that line. By Sunday morning the cooler temperatures will push
south a bit more and the 0c isotherm will lie from eagle to
eielson afb to bethel.
Surface... Relatively benign pattern over the area with a broad
area of low pressure over the mainland. High pressure over siberia
is producing a tightened pressure gradient over the western
arctic, chukchi sea, bering strait, and eastern bering sea that
will bring some slightly stronger winds to the area. A weather
front is moving across the arctic this morning as a 999 mb low|
over the beaufort sea moves east into canada. A weather front
associated with a 995 mb low 500 nm north of point barrow will
move over the northwest and central arctic coast this afternoon
and evening squeezing out high pressure over the arctic plain. The
low will move across the southern beaufort sea Friday afternoon
and evening with the front dragging east. A 1000 mb low pressure
center will develop over the upper yukon flats this evening with a
weather front developing northeast to southwest across the
interior Friday. A 994 mb low will develop 600 nm northwest of
point barrow Friday afternoon and move southeast to 400 nm north
of nuiqsut by Saturday morning with another front pushing south
over the northwest and central arctic coast, then rapidly being
dragged east as the low moves over the northern beaufort sea
Saturday night at 983 mb. Another front will spin south around the
low and move over the arctic coast Sunday morning. A 985 mb low in
the southern gulf of alaska will move east, but will continue to
spin moisture north into the interior. A 1001 mb low will develop
in the upper tanana valley this afternoon and persist in the area
as a 999 mb low develops in the copper river basin and slides
southwest over prince william sound by Saturday morning. High
pressure will extend northeast over the west coast and into the
western interior from a 1026 mb high in the southwest bering sea.
The high will move to shemya by Sunday morning with high pressure
persisting over the bering sea and most of the west coast.
Arctic coast and brooks range... The front is moving east and
showers are mainly east of point barrow this morning. Snow
developing in the central and eastern brooks range this morning.
Snow accumulation through Friday morning up to 4 inches with the
heaviest amounts east of the dalton highway. Some gusty winds
to 30 mph in the brooks range this morning, then again Friday as
the next front moves through the area. Generally west to northwest
winds across the area low clouds will persist over the area.
Temperatures will cool a couple degrees along the coast, but are
being moderated by the open water. Cooler temperatures inland and
in the brooks range. Temperatures will be falling into the lower
20s in the brooks range the next couple days.
West coast and western interior... Generally pretty quiet. A front
will spread some isolated showers over the chukchi sea today, then
clearing. High pressure will continue to push over the area from
the southwest. The pressure gradient will tighten a bit with some
brisk northwest to north winds developing over the chukchi sea
and through the bering strait. Those winds will bring some
slightly cooler temperatures to the area. Winds will be gusting to
25 to 30 mph. Some elevated surf will occur on the northwest and
north facing coastlines from CAPE espenberg west, and on st
Central and eastern interior... A weak front remains over the area
and showers will be developing today. Rainfall amounts will be
less than 0.25 inch, and will not impact the falling river levels.
No significant winds are expected. With westerly flow, expect
cloudy and showers conditions to continue through the weekend with
some periods of rain. Temperatures a couple degrees cooler.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None. Do expect some
elevated seas along the eastern arctic coast Saturday into Sunday,
but highest wave action will remain offshore.
Fire weather Relative humidity values will be above 30 percent
with most areas remaining above 40 percent. No significant winds
through the weekend. No thunderstorm activity expected. Go to
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Wind History from (wind in knots)
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