Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toksook Bay, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...

-High temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s for most of the region, except the Tanana Valley from Fairbanks south and east to the border where highs will be in the upper 40s to near 50 through the end of the week. Lows will dip below freezing for most of the region resulting in a freeze thaw cycle through the end of the week.

-Scattered rain showers return to the Fortymile Country and upper Tanana Valley this afternoon. These will be mostly confined to higher terrain, but may move into the valleys after forming.

-Northeast winds pick up Wednesday, especially across Interior Summits. Sustained values up to 30 mph near summits may mix down into the valleys as afternoon gusts up to 25 mph Wednesday afternoon and evening.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-A band of rain/snow showers currently over the Norton Sound reaches St. Lawrence Island and the southern Seward Peninsula this afternoon and will last through Tuesday morning. Additional showers are expected to be mostly snow along the main band. Some isolated rain showers and patches of fog are expected through tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches expected in the Nulato Hills. 2 to 3 inches of snow are expected for St.
Lawrence Island where snow showers will last into Tuesday night.

-Northeast winds decrease through Tuesday. Northerly winds then increase Wednesday through the Bering Strait and across St.
Lawrence Island with gusts up to 35 mph.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

-Easterly winds 10 to 15 mph shift northeasterly Tuesday and increase to 20 mph Wednesday. Winds will be stronger on the northwestern coast from Point Lay to Point Hope with sustained speeds reaching 20 mph Tuesday and up to 30 mph Wednesday.

-Temperatures remain steady through midweek with highs in the single digits above and lows near 0.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A band of precipitation currently in the Norton Sound will reach St. Lawrence Island and the southern Seward Peninsula this afternoon. The low supporting this band is currently over St.
Matthew Island and will be pulled east over southwestern Alaska overnight tonight and then south into the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday afternoon. Weak ridging in the Interior moves over the Chukchi Sea Coast Tuesday and then stretches into a weak ridge between the low moving into the Gulf and the next system rolling east along the Aleutian archipelago. This next system has significantly better model agreement than the last few days and will slowly move along the southern Bering Sea from Thursday to Saturday. This will support a broad trough of low pressure over northern Alaska and the Bering Sea allowing for chances of light precipitation along the West Coast from the Seward Peninsula south. A high pressure region currently in eastern Siberia will move north into the high Arctic and support broad moderate to weak east and northeast winds across northern Alaska Wednesday through the weekend.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Model agreement is slightly better than the past few days and shows the slow filling of a broad area of low pressure. The details are still quite poor, but the overall pattern suggests benign weather with occasional showers and seasonal temperatures for the end of the week and beginning of next week. Forecast consistency for this period is still poor, so confidence is only moderate in this remaining the case through the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ857.
Gale Warning for PKZ858.