Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kenai, AK

FXAK68 PAFC 070316 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 616 PM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday evening)...

Key Messages:

* Multiple winter weather hazards remain in effect across a good portion of Southcentral Alaska through late tonight or Saturday morning as a potent storm system continues to track into Prince William Sound by Saturday. Please visit our weather.gov/afc for a complete breakdown of winter weather products.

Discussion:

As of 3PM this afternoon, a deep area of low pressure is rapidly moving into the Prince William Sound area as its attendant front lifts inland across Southcentral. Looking at radar returns, snow continues to fall inland while coastal areas have seen rain mix in or a transition to rain altogether, but some are transitioning back to snow as the occlusion wraps around. With the continued eastward trend with the surface low and upper low, most of the snow from this system is still on track to fall along the windward slopes of the Kenai and Chugach mountains from upslope enhancement, though the downsloping in lee of the mountains looks to have come to an end as the radar continues to fill in. Aloft, the longwave trough responsible for deepening our surface low has pinched off into an upper level low across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula. As the surface low continues to lift northward through this evening, winds will shift to southerly for the Cook Inlet region, allowing for snowfall to fill in. Steady snow is also spilling across the Copper River Basin. As the precipitation winds down, gusty southerly winds will develop helping to temporarily drive temperatures close to freezing for places like Glennallen. Along the Edgerton Highway, this push of warmer air could result in a wintry mix of precipitation leading to icy roadways.

Where the most uncertainty lies with this setup is with deformation banding potential as the upper level low begins to swing over the area through Saturday morning. With colder air moving in aloft, lapse rates will steepen and enhance snowfall rates in areas caught under any banding features. With this upper level feature moving over the area, the precipitation regime also becomes more showery in nature and convective, so expect snowfall totals to vary even across a relatively small area.

The southerly flow behind these features will also advect colder air from Southwest Alaska. Expect strong southerly wind gusts and snow showers across Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay this evening through Saturday. A lot of the high resolution guidance wants to develop a mesolow in Cook Inlet Saturday, keeping the pressure gradient relatively strong for Homer and Kachemak Bay. At the same time, the upper low moves over the area, adding instability and the chance for snow showers to linger for the Anchorage Bowl, Mat Valley, coastal mountains, and Copper River Basin, leading to additional snow accumulations.

By late Saturday and Sunday, colder air will stream in from Western Alaska with gusty gap winds developing and temperatures falling back well below average for this time of year.

-AM/TM
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