Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kenai, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

KEY MESSAGES...

1) Multiple products are in effect for the Kamchatka low moving through the Bering Sea Monday / Tuesday.

2) Snow amounts will be highest in Southwest Alaska.

3) Prolonged winter weather conditions expected for the Pribilof Islands.

KEY MESSAGE 1...Multiple products are in effect for the Kamchatka low moving through the Bering Sea Monday / Tuesday.

A 950 mb Kamchatka low moves northward through the Western Aleutians and into the Bering Sea Monday and Tuesday. It will deepen as it crosses into the Bering Sea to a 940 mb low as the trough digs deeper and the low becomes vertically stacked. Its front reaches the Central and Eastern Aleutians Monday afternoon bringing south/southeasterly winds through the evening hours.
These winds stretch into the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska Monday into Tuesday. As the low deepens, hurricane force winds continue in the Central Aleutians with mainly storm force to hurricane force winds in the Eastern Aleutians through Tuesday.
Precipitation during this time in the Aleutians will be high elevation snowfall and a mix of rain/snow at lower elevations. The front's passing will create an east to west wind flow causing the best chance for strongest wind gusts between Monday evening and Tuesday evening. Forecaster experience continues to lean toward a snowier period of precipitation type during this time as the occluding low brings colder air aloft to the surface and increased precipitation rates that aid in cooler surface temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Snow amounts will be highest in Southwest Alaska.

Conditions in Southwest Alaska won't fare any better with this early week storm. The aforementioned front reaches the Southwest Alaska coastline Tuesday morning bringing rain, snow and strong winds to the region through Tuesday evening. We're monitoring the potential for blizzard conditions for the Southwest coast, as well as heavy snow for parts of Southwest Alaska, including Bethel. Onshore wind flow could result in Bristol Bay and Bering Sea coastal impacts. Various winter weather products have been issued for the next 72 hours for this storm. Additionally, southerly winds bring warmer temperatures to the Alaska Peninsula allowing most of the precipitation to remain as rain though snow mixing in with this rain at times is possible the next 72 hours.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Prolonged winter weather conditions expected on the Pribilof Islands.

As the low moves into the Bering Sea and its associated front works its was northward, southerly to southeasterly winds are expected. Though not a favorable direction for blizzard conditions on the Islands, the heavy precipitation and wind gusts in the 40 mph to 60 mph range Monday and Tuesday could cause a prolonged period of visibility conditions as low as 1/2 mile. The greatest chance for these low visibility conditions range from Monday evening into late Tuesday evening when the heaviest precipitation is expected. Of note, temperatures will remain around 32 degrees during his time frame and this is a change from previous model guidance of a cooler solution during the heaviest precipitation.
Forecaster experience of pattern recognition lean towards a cooler solution resulting in temperatures at or slightly below 32 degrees during this heavy precipitation time.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Wednesday through Saturday)...

Starting off the long term forecast on Wednesday lies a strong low in the Eastern Bering. This low is expected to bring gale to storm force winds to the Aleutians Islands and the Pribilof Islands. Precipitation from the low is expected to be mostly snowfall due to a cooler air mass wrapping around the low. Blowing snow from the gusty winds and snowfall could reduce visibility.
Southcentral will be less active, but lingering snowfall from a previous low is possible. Thursday has the low moving onshore bringing snowfall to the mainland and gusty winds to the coast.
With this, winds and precipitation in the Bering will diminish.
However, a strong front from a Kamchatka low pushes into the Western Aleutians, making its way eastward and pushing onshore by Friday. This front will bring another round of gusty winds to the Aleutians, but the airmass will be warmer due to southerly flow, so rain or a rain/snow are the more likely precipitation types.
However, the Southwest Mainland will remain cold enough for snow once the front pushes onshore on Friday. Meanwhile, shortwaves moving through Southcentral could allow for some snowfall, but this is uncertain at this point in time.

Uncertainty arises on Saturday with the potential for smaller lows to move through the Bering. These would up winds and precipitation chances for wherever they move over. Uncertainty for Southcentral is a little better, with a low forming somewhere in the northern Gulf, allowing for snowfall for the coast and potentially inland as well. The picture will become more clear overtime as guidance better resolves key features.

-JAR

AVIATION

PANC.. MVFR and light northerly winds expected. Light snow is possible after 06Z, with the most likely timeframe after 10Z. Snow tapers off by Monday afternoon and ceilings are expected to improve. There is a small potential for light freezing drizzle before snow.