Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kenai, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A trough axis situated just over Southwestern Alaska is promoting unsettled weather across the area, with rain and periods of rain/snow mix. Over the Central Bering, a ridge of high pressure has built and is steadily advancing eastward toward the Southwest coast. The high pressure is promoting relatively clearer skies during the day, leading to drier conditions and warmer temperatures expected the next few days. Periods of stratus and fog may form during the nighttime hours. Wednesday morning, a North Pacific low will have lifted into the eastern Bering Sea, pushing a front eastward across the Aleutian chain. Widespread gales will quickly weaken through the remainder of the week.
Precipitation from this system will spread eastward Thursday afternoon. Colder air wrapping around the western backside of the low could initially bring snow, but warmer air will follow the low across the Chain, switching back to rain for the southern Bering by Thursday.

-CL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...

The long term continues to be characterized by broad upper level troughing over the Bering, as a series of upper lows stretch from Eastern Siberia to Northwest Alaska to the Southern Bering for the beginning of the period. A weakening ridge over Southcentral to begin the weekend will quickly be pushed off to the east as the upper low becomes more organized and consolidates in the Southern Bering, rotating multiple rounds of shortwave energy across the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf.

Generally unsettled and showery weather can be expected across the Bering, Aleutian Chain, and Southwest Alaska through the weekend as a surface low tracking into the Gulf may linger some light precipitation across the region, with locally moderate rainfall possible along the AKPen. As the system pivots eastwards, southeasterly flow in the Gulf will drive mainly upslope-driven precipitation to Kodiak Island and along the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. An upstream surface low and its accompanying front lifting out of the North Pacific reinforces another chance for rain across the Aleutians as it skirts to the south of the island chain early next week. By the end of the forecast period, a lack of model agreement leads to decreasing confidence on the evolution of another potential storm in the Gulf for Tuesday.
Though some uncertainty remains on the overall strength of the system and eastward extent of precipitation, favored ensemble runs suggest another potential round of precipitation along the AKPen and northern Gulf coast.

AVIATION

PANC...Light winds prevail through the TAF period with southerly during the day and northerly at night. VFR ceilings are expected with brief dips below 5000 ft possible in vicinity showers and MVFR in rainfall. Any precipitation chances end Wednesday morning.