Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tatitlek, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Thursday)...

A very stable pattern will lead to continued cold and windy conditions across the eastern Bering Sea and into portions of Southwest AK the next few days. Perhaps more impactful, conditions are perfect for large areas of extreme vessel icing across Southwest AK coastal waters. A large, blocking upper-level ridge of high pressure remains stationary as seen in satellite imagery, and will remain anchored over the western Aleutians and western Bering Sea through the forecast period. Weather conditions across the region will remain persist through Thursday, with any fluctuations in the forecast due to shortwaves tracking southwards across western AK and the eastern Bering Sea.

Deep and strong northerly flow east of the ridge is maintaining a bitter cold airmass across the eastern Bering Sea and Southwest AK. Gusty northerly winds can be found across the eastern Bering and down across the eastern Aleutians (Nikolski, Dutch Harbor, Akutan) and southern Alaska Peninsula (False Pass, King Cove, Sand Point). Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect along the southern Alaska Peninsula for wind chills as low as 10 to 20 below zero. Elsewhere across Southwest Alaska, temperatures remain well below normal for this time of year, ranging from around zero to 10 degrees above zero. Snow showers continue this morning from the eastern Aleutians to the southern AKPen on the back side of a shortwave trough that has tracked south into the northern Pacific overnight. Persistent snow showers along with brief visibility reductions are likely to continue through tonight as additional weak shortwaves drop south across Bristol Bay and across the AKPen. Reinforcing cold air advection combined with the fast- moving upper level shortwave late this morning through tonight will further strengthen gap winds along the AKPen and expand the marine areas covered by heavy freezing spray and extreme freezing spray (potential for 4cm/hour or greater icing rates). Sub-zero degree wind chills will persist across the Alaska Peninsula, where Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect all the way through Wednesday.

Another short-wave will ride over top of the ridge and across the northern Bering Sea Wednesday before diving southward Wednesday night through Thursday. This will bring snow to portions of the Kuskokwim Delta and down across the eastern Bering Sea to the Alaska Peninsula. The airmass behind this doesn't look nearly as cold as what is in place right now and over the next couple days.
Thus, winds will be weaker, temperatures/wind chills more moderate, and there will be less heavy freezing spray for marine areas.

-JH/SEB

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long-term outlook suggests a complex atmospheric setup. An upper-level trough centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska will stretch southward into the North Pacific, serving as a hub for several rotating shortwaves. While high pressure is expected to dominate the Bering Sea through Sunday, the weather will shift by Monday afternoon as an upper-level low arrives, bringing snow showers to the western mainland.

Regarding local impacts, a tightening pressure gradient along the coast will trigger intense winds through the gaps of the North Gulf Coast. Additionally, strong northerly flow and cold air advection will lead to gusty gap winds and frigid conditions across the Alaskan Peninsula. Model guidance is generally in good agreement in this pattern that will keep temperatures well below seasonal norms for both South and Southcentral Alaska through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist through the TAF period. Expect wind gusts between 20 to 25 kts at times through the TAF period as pressure gradients remain tight through the Mat-Su Valleys.