Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 4:10 AM   Moonset 9:29 PM

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FXUS63 KFGF 072329 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 629 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of weak thunderstorms will continue north this afternoon with the potential for gusty winds to 50 mph and small hail.

- Scattered rain chances return this weekend.

UPDATE
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Line of showers and embedded thunder continues to move north this evening. The line currently is situated over Towner county through northern Beltrami county. Over the past several hours it has become unorganized and lost its intensity. SFC vorticity and instability have started to weaken and will continue to do so as we progress through the remainder of the evening hours. Isolated gusts behind the front of 30-35mph will be possible through the rest of the evening before we loose further daytime heating and mixing potential.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Storms continue to fire along the northward moving occluded front and currently span from the Valley City to Fargo corridor and southeast to Fergus Falls. These will continue to propagate north/northwest as the front wraps around the upper low to the southwest centered over the central ND/SD border. MLCAPE of 400-800 J/kg per latest RAP analysis overlaid upon the ample boundary vorticity have created sporadic weak mid-level (850 mb) mesos with this short sub-6km deep convection. Should continue to see a small hail and gusty wind threat through the afternoon with these as they move north though the landspout/weak tornado threat seems to be low as cells struggle to remain discrete and rain into each others updrafts. Clearing behind the main line may yield enough instability to see a few more storms form behind this initial line but remain weaker with more mid level dry air to contend with. Gusty synoptic 30+ mph winds will begin to drop off after sunset as we develop the evening inversion leaving a pleasant night.

A breakdown of the upper low over the next 2 days will see continued cloud cover with periodic shower chances through Wednesday as the low meanders south with weak upper flow to move it along.
Another 0.10 to 0.25" remains possible before this round of rain ends primarily north of HWY 200. A drier period begins after this round moves out with eastern ridging forming atop a developing cutoff low in desert SW arching into the northern plains by late week. Northerly flow along the eastern edge of this ridging will see shortwaves rounding the ridging with our next potential rain maker Friday though not looking at a soaker with this quick moving clipper type system. Low level ridging will see relative humidity dropping below 40% each day Thursday- Sunday for at least a portion of the forecast area. The strongest surface pressure gradient doesnt move over head until Friday/Saturday quelling concerns of fire weather though remains something to monitor.

Chances for precip look to then stem from ridge riding waves late weekend into early next week Though uncertainty remains high with timing and amounts. Highs through the period as ridging dominates will be in the 60s to 70s with average highs in the mid 60s for the second week of May. Lows in the 40s to low 50s each night for the week should provide near term relief from any late season frost threat for gardeners who have already started spring planting or are looking to start.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Line of showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move north. The line is currently stretching from northern Towner to northern Beltrami county. Winds behind the showers have been on the stronger side, with gusts up to 30kts at times for DVL, FAR, GFK, and TVF. This will be periodic over the next three hours.
After, winds will turn toward the east and diminish. Rain chances continue through 03z for BJI, DVL, TVF, and GFK.
Otherwise, clouds will remain broken for all sites but FAR through the overnight period. DVL and BJI will reach MVFR ceilings around midnight and remain there through 12z. Further chances for isolated showers near the end of the TAF period, with MVFR BKN ceilings.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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