Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Angle Inlet, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 9:21PM Thursday July 16, 2020 9:03 AM CDT (14:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:54AMMoonset 6:32PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Angle Inlet, MN
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location: 61.03, -89.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 161141 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 641 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

A few showers and thunderstorms continue to push to the east this morning across the southern valley with another small area just between Hwy 2 and Hwy 200 in E ND. Will continue to see the activity spread to the the east with most of the area dry from the late morning onward. The exception continues to look to be across the far eastern zones where some spotty afternoon convection may develop.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Impacts today will be isolated to scattered showers or general thunderstorms this morning in the southern valley and west central MN then redevelopment in the Lake of the Woods to Bemidji areas this afternoon. This morning a pocket of 500j/kg of MLCAPE is expected to traverse across the southern valley into lakes country fueling the scattered convection along a weak boundary. Additional development of isolated activity is possible this afternoon in the far eastern edge of the FA with peak heating as another shortwave trough moves through the area. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday speaking in the mid 80s with eh afternoon sun after the morning cloudiness. Will see a quiet and seasonal overnight with lows in the upper 50s Friday morning.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Friday and Friday night: Vigorous moisture advection brings dew points into the upper 60s to low 70s across the southern Red River Valley Friday. The northern extent of the mid-60 degree dew points will reach all the way to the International Border. With afternoon high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s, CAPE values will climb sharply with 4000 J/Kg or more possible during the late afternoon. Ensembles highlight widespread MLCAPE values as high as 4500 J/Kg stretching from the northern Devils Lake Basin southward into eastern South Dakota by 00Z. Model soundings show very good low level shear (0-1km and 0-3km around 20-25kt) and modest deep layer shear (0-6km 30 to 35 kt). Storm mode will likely start with supercells in central North Dakota and transition to line segments or linear mode further east. Initially, we will be looking at all hazards (tornado, large hail, damaging wind gusts). MCS potential looks rather high and there will be a risk of bowing line segments as such. Low level speed/directional shear looks favorable for QLCS embedded tornadoes and damaging wind gusts once the linear transition takes place. There remains some uncertainty regarding exactly where the segments form, but current guidance is suggesting a rather large portion of the region will be at risk, especially south of HWY 2. Localized flash flooding will also be possible, and anomalously high PW values of 1.7 to 1.9 inches are indicated in model soundings.

Saturday and Sunday: Ongoing convective activity persists into Saturday morning, with continued risks, mainly for damaging wind gusts. Much of this activity will slide eastward and out of the forecast area by sunrise or slightly thereafter. The cold front, and associated theta-e gradient boundary, will move off to the east during the 18Z to 21Z period. We should see a period of quiet weather from midday through the mid-afternoon before scattered thunderstorm chances return to the area through the late afternoon and evening hours. Quiet weather is expected on Sunday with cooler afternoon highs in the lower 80s.

Monday through Thursday: The post-frontal environment brings very pleasant highs in the 70s to the area Monday and Tuesday. Transient shortwave activity will help keep PoPs in the 20 to 30 percent range with thunderstorms possible each day. Northwest flow becomes more westerly late Tuesday into Wednesday with southerly surface winds. This will serve to bring moisture and higher temperatures back into the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

VFR conditions expected today with some isolated showers and storms. GFK looks to be just north of a round this morning then should be in the clear. BJI appears to be the only TAF sites that could see convection this afternoon but confidence to low to add to the forecast. Will see rather light winds with a few afternoon gusts around 20kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ND . None. MN . None.

UPDATE . JK SHORT TERM . JK LONG TERM . Lynch AVIATION . JK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Jack Bay, Valdez Arm, Alaska
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Jack Bay
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Thu -- 12:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:17 AM AKDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:33 AM AKDT     8.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:32 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:47 PM AKDT     4.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:08 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:57 PM AKDT     11.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.37.65.53.62.21.61.72.74.25.87.27.987.46.45.44.74.556.27.99.510.811.2

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.