Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 4:13 AM   Moonset 1:28 AM

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FXUS63 KFGF 101944 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms across northwestern Minnesota this afternoon. Isolated stronger cells with lightning, pea hail, and wind gusts to 55 mph.

- Near critical fire weather conditions continue in portions of the Red River Valley with winds gusting to 35 mph and dry relative humidity values near 25 percent.

- Very similar conditions tomorrow, with a few storms near Lake of the Woods and low relative humidity values and gusty west winds in the northern Red River Valley.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Fairly strong shortwave digging through northern MN currently, with cumulus and showers across much of our eastern CWA No reports of small hail so far, but a few are tall enough to produce lightning and a couple of cells were strong enough to mix down a few gusts above 50 mph. Will continue some messaging for stronger storms through sunset, but the 500 J/kg of surface based CAPE that we see will rapidly diminish and there is no shear to speak of. Thus. most of the cumulus should dissipate and allow mostly clear skies for aurora viewing, although some cirrus could start moving in towards morning. The breezy northwest winds will also settle down and RH values will improve, improving our near critical fire weather conditions in the Red River Valley.

Similar conditions for tomorrow however, as another shortwave moves through southern Manitoba and brings more shower activity to northwestern Minnesota. This time the CWA will be in the warm sector of the surface low with southwesterly winds and highs approaching 80 degrees in the Red River Valley. RH values will again be down near the 25 percent mark although winds will be lighter everywhere except the far northern Red River Valley. May have to watch that area again for near critical fire weather concerns. As for as convection goes, the HRRR has a few updraft helicity tracks that are on the high side tomorrow afternoon, but CAPE values are less than 1000 J/kg and think probabilities for anything actually severe are under 10 percent.

Frontal boundary pushing in behind the shortwave and high pressure building in will bring cooler temperatures and quiet weather for Sunday and Monday. A trough of low pressure will begin to approach by late Tuesday, coming out into the Plains on Wednesday. How this system is handled mid to late week as it moves into the eastern Plains and into the Rockies is not particularly well handled by the ensembles, with about an even split in the clusters by Thursday between a trough to our west and a ridge. Blend gives us fairly active precip chances with slightly below average highs and this seems reasonable at this point.



AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Cumulus and showers developing mainly over northwestern MN, but all sites VFR and will remain so as convective activity dissipates after sunset. Winds will be the primary aviation concern with many airports gusting above 30 kts from the northwest this afternoon. Should see winds slowly taper off this evening, eventually becoming light and variable overnight. By the end of the period there will be a shift to the southwest at less than 10 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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