Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beluga, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 280150 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 450 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Quite a busy weather day for our forecast area. Three surface low pressure systems exist, two of which are weather producers for us today. First, a surface low just south of Prince William Sound has been creating impactful weather for Southcentral AK. A deformation band with this low has produced heavy snow for the Western Susitna Valley and another band of moisture along coastal Southcentral is producing heavy snow through Turnagain Pass and snowfall in Turnagain Arm and Anchorage Bowl. The second low is a strong low in currently in the Eastern Aleutians, with Hurricane Force wind gusts wrapping around the backside of the low. A front from this low is currently entering the Western Gulf of Alaska as well. The third low is in the Western Bering and not yet impactful. The three are making for some very interesting satellite shots.

All of this active weather is supported in the upper levels by a complex longwave trough that encompasses most of our forecast area. Several upper low centers are spinning within this trough, three of which are associated with the aforementioned surface lows. This trough extends all the was from Eastern Siberia to Central Alaska. Induced shortwave ridging is developing between the low in the Gulf of Alaska and the low in the Eastern Aleutians, which is the only bit of ridging that can be seen in our forecast area.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

On the synoptic scale, models are performing well and in good agreement. They are capturing the overall weather pattern. When we focus in on the mesoscale, disagreement and performance issues emerge with our major models. This is mainly the case for Southcentral AK. They have had difficulty depicting the current round of snowfall in Southcentral AK and are having trouble resolving the next frontal system slated to move into the Gulf of Alaska tonight. This has made for difficulty in forecasting the finer details, dropping our confidence level for the next couple of days, specifically along coastal areas. In the western part of our forecast area, models are performing better and we have higher confidence in the forecast.

AVIATION.

PANC . A heavier band of snow moved through this morning reducing the airfield to IFR conditions. The heaviest snow has moved through and MVFR conditions can be expected with light snow showers into the evening. Winds should stay light and variable.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Sunday) .

The amount of snow will vary across from Kenai Peninsula through Prince William Sound to Anchorage this evening, thanks to remaining remnants over the Gulf that are still making their way inland which will bring additional snowfall tonight.

More mixed snow and rain are heading our way as a result of the next storm from the Bering Sea. The leading edge of the frontal system from the storm has already reached Kodiak this afternoon, and this system will race northward toward Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound through Saturday morning. Along the axis of the frontal boundary, a couple other lows will emerge from it and may keep snowy conditions near Anchorage Bowl through the weekend. For now, the models suggest at least two separate microscale lows with the first one emerging near Kodiak on Saturday morning and the other over Cook Inlet on Sunday afternoon. It should not come as a surprise should the areal coverage for snow increases through Monday. Although strong winds from the frontal boundary will reach much of Prince William Sound by Saturday morning, but these strong winds are expected to be short-lived.

Patchy fog was observed around the Anchorage Bowl this afternoon, and this situation will continue through late tonight. Freezing spray is also expected in the next couple days mainly over the Cook Inlet and Kamishak Bay. The combination of moderate to strong winds and cold temperatures are favorable ingredients for freezing spray.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

The cold weather pattern continues across Southwest Alaska this afternoon, with a few lingering snow showers over interior Bristol Bay. Cloud cover and the chance for precipitation will increase this evening for the mainland as a frontal system lifts northward overnight into Saturday morning. This system has stayed all rain earlier today for the Alaska Peninsula, which will transition to snow or a mix of rain and snow as temperatures cool overnight.

The potential for blowing snow across Bristol Bay from Dillingham to Koliganek is the main focus for this forecast package. As the front lifts northward, strong winds and gusts are possible, as well as a few inches of snowfall. Blowing snow is a concern with these conditions, which could lower visibility to a half mile at times. Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow has been issued through Friday morning for these areas.

The Kuskokwim Delta and Valley should stay relatively dry through Friday, when a chance of snow returns to the Kuskokwim Valley. Temperatures across the region will continue to fall through the weekend as northerly flow allows cold air advection to move into the area.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

High winds across the central Aleutians will continue through the evening hours as a storm force low positioned just north of Dutch Harbor tracks over the Alaska Peninsula and back into the North Pacific by Saturday morning. A High Wind Warning remains in effect through this evening for the eastern Aleutians, including Nikolski, which has already seen warning level gusts of 80 mph.

A second storm force low over the western Bering this afternoon will continue to weaken overnight as it dives south crossing the central Aleutians Saturday afternoon and into the North Pacific through the evening hours. Widespread precipitation will accompany the two aforementioned systems, diminishing through Sunday morning.

Another storm force system will move into the forecast area by Sunday morning, with the associated front tracking over the western Aleutians. This low will skirt the Aleutians, keeping the strongest core of winds and widespread precipitation for the Aleutian Chain as it tracks eastward towards the Alaska Peninsula for Monday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday).

Gulf: A weak low lingers in the Northern Gulf through Monday afternoon before moving onshore and dissipating. On Tuesday, a series of shortwaves troughs move across the Gulf towards the North Gulf Coast as a second weakening low approaches Kodiak Island from the south. Winds will be primarily southeasterly on Monday, transitioning to southerly by Tuesday afternoon as the low moves north. Storm force winds may result as the front pushes the North Gulf Coast, with a barrier jet likely to set up late Monday night. Winds should begin to dissipate by Tuesday evening.

Bering: A strong North Pacific low pushes towards the western Gulf over the course of a few days. This results in widespread gales across the Southern Bering and possible storm force winds along the central/eastern Aleutian coasts Monday into Tuesday. On Tuesday the low is positioned further east and lingering gales and small craft winds will be confined to the Southwest coastal waters. Additionally, flow will be primarily northerly on Tuesday with colder air being advected along the coast, thus, freezing spray is likely, with heavy freezing spray possible along parts of the immediate coast. High pressure sets up over the Central Bering Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday).

A strong front pushes the Southcentral Coast late Monday night. With this, widespread precipitation is likely, with the heaviest along Western Prince William Sound and Eastern Kenai. Further inland, snow is likely through Wednesday morning before becoming a rain/snow mix in the lower elevation. Significant warm air follows this front, thus, precipitation along the coast should start as a snow or rain/snow mix Tuesday morning and transition to all rain by Tuesday afternoon. Rain will likely linger through Thursday as a second low pushes the coast from the Southern Gulf. Precipitation transitions back to snow by Friday with colder air behind the low.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning 119 172 174 177 178 411. Gale Warning 120 125 128 130 132 138 139 140 150 155 160 165 170 173 175 176 180 351 352 413 414 . Heavy Freezing Spray 180 181. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . KM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK	28 mi	45 min	ESE 4.1 G 5.1	29°F	37°F		989.1 hPa
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK	69 mi	45 min	SE 2.9 G 4.1	28°F	31°F		990.5 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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NE16 G23

NE22 G28

NE13 G19

NE11 G19

NE13 G17

N9 G15

N9 G12

N9 G12

N11 G14

N11 G14

N10 G13

N11 G14

N6 G9

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N12 G15

N7 G10

N3 G7

W10

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SW15

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W15 G20

SW13 G16

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S10 G14

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NE10 G17

NE14 G20

NE18 G24

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NE15 G22

NE16 G20

E8 G11

E10 G13

NE14 G19

NE12

E8 G15

NE5

E11 G16

E11 G15

E11

E5

S8 G12

S7

W15

NW6

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK	33 mi	40 min	NE 4	0.25 mi	Unknown Precip Freezing Fog	18°F	16°F	92%	989.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)

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N15

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Calm

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NW3

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N6

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S3

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NE3

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1 day ago

NW3

SW9

SW13

SW19 G24

SW18 G24

SW17

SW14 G22

SW11

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SW16

S9

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NE3

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NE14 G20

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E17 G29

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E18 G27

E9

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SE4

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SW21 G28

SW10

Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for North Foreland, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for East Foreland, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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