Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beluga, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 160122 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 422 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. Large Scale upper cyclonic flow, associate with a resident low just south of the AK Pen, continued. At the surface, a 970s mb low was located just south of the AK Pen with an occluded front stretching from Bristol Bay to over the northern Gulf of Alaska. Areas of light snow were observed over the Kuskokwim Delta, mixed rain and snow over Bristol Bay to rain across the AK Pen to over the Gulf. The heaviest rain was over the eastward Kenai Peninsula due to upslope enhancement. Downslope drying, due to southeast cross-barrier flow across the Kenai an Chugach Mountains, is minimizing precipitation to the lee of the aforementioned ranges. Gale to storm force easterly winds were evident from the Barren Islands to the northern Gulf waters. Northerly gales, on the backside of the surface low, were observed across the eastern Aleutians. A frontal system approaching the western Aleutians this afternoon brought increasing easterly flow.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in generally good synoptic agreement. Will likely use the GFS out west and generally hand edits to existing grids in the east.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). The front along the northern Gulf weakens overnight as the surface low slowly fills on an easterly track from the Alaska Peninsula to the southern Gulf. The front stalls across the Northeast Gulf, Prince William Sound and eastern Kenai bringing light rain through Monday with snow for higher elevations. A few isolated showers may pull farther inland, however interior locations will mainly stay dry and cool.

On Tuesday, the next surface low moves to just south of Kodiak Island early in the morning. The associated front pushes quickly from the southern Gulf to the coast by the afternoon. This system will be relatively weak with small craft winds along the boundary. Yet another front pushes to Kodiak Island late Tuesday afternoon, taking a similar northward track. This front is expected to be better organized Tuesday night through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). A 974 mb low over the Alaska Peninsula is responsible for a few scattered showers of rain this afternoon in Southwest Alaska. Temperatures in the Kusko Delta are cold enough for snow to fall in Kipnuk. The low will continue to fill over the next 24 hours and precipitation will diminish as well. Northeast winds will continue across the Kusko Delta and keep conditions cold and dry the next 2 days. Another low pressure system will move out of the western Aleutians and bring gusty winds to much of Southwest Alaska on Tuesday evening, precipitation will be limited to the Gulf side of the Alaska Peninsula.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2). A weakening low over the western AKPEN is still creating gusty winds and scattered rain showers from Nikolski eastward. A storm force low in the north Pacific will bring strong winds and a mix of rain and snow to Shemya later Sunday evening into Monday afternoon. This system will track across the Aleutian chain through Tuesday evening and bring a band of rain through the area. The low will track east of Adak early Tuesday morning followed by a swath of gusty northwest winds and scattered showers that will last through Tuesday across the Aleutian chain and the Pribilof Islands.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5). At the onset of this forecast period there are two lows, one near Kodiak Island and a Kamchatka low. The low near Kodiak will push into the Gulf Of Alaska bringing small craft advisory and possibly a few gales. And the Kamchatka low will move into the Bering bringing a widespread storm force winds that will taper down towards the end of the period. Anticipate light to heavy freezing spray from Hooper Bay to Nunivak Island.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7). The global models are in decent agreement with the main synoptic pattern for north Pacific and Bering through Saturday December 21st. At the onset of this forecast period, there are two surface lows. One is near Kodiak Island and a Kamchatka low. There is a ridge axis between the two systems. There are some minor differences with the timing of two surface lows. There is another noteworthy feature. A piece of arctic energy gets kicked out from an upper low well north the Brooks Range and tracks into southwest Alaska. Then a second arctic impulse dives southward and the models bring this feature south of the Alaska Range. Expect cooler temperatures from SW AK to the Copper River Basin. At this point, Saturday looks brutally cold for southcentral AK.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning 119 120 177. Gale Warning 125 130 131 139 155 172>176 178. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . RC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AH SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . LB MARINE/LONG TERM . PJS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK	28 mi	56 min	NE 19 G 24	38°F	37°F		996.5 hPa
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK	69 mi	68 min	NE 6 G 8.9	32°F	33°F		998.7 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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NE16 G24

NE18 G25

NE19 G26

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NE20 G27

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NE20 G30

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NE18 G25

NE15 G21

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NE16 G24

1 day ago

NE13 G18

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NE10 G15

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NE13 G20

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NE16 G21

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NE15 G22

NE19 G24

NE16 G24

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NE13 G23

NE17 G21

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NE12 G17

NE14 G19

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NE14 G20

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NE11 G18

NE14 G18

NE11 G17

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK	33 mi	57 min	N 17	10.00 mi	Overcast	36°F	23°F	59%	996.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)

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N16

N21 G25

NE20 G25

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N20 G27

N21 G28

N21 G27

N22 G30

NE24 G29

NE22 G30

NE20 G27

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Tide / Current Tables for North Foreland, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for East Foreland, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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