Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beluga, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 262312 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 312 PM AKDT Tue May 26 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. The upper low over Saint Lawrence Island continues to track north. Its associated short wave is moving slowly north across Southwest Alaska. A weakening Easterly Wave which moved through Southcentral overnight is weakening as it moves through the western interior. Much of Southwest Alaska is under mostly cloudy skies. Showers associated with a northward advancing wave are moving north across the area. It is also getting rather convective with some some breaks over the lower Kuskokwim Valley. The Bering Sea and Aleutians are generally under mostly cloudy skies with areas of rain and showers. A northward advancing upper wave accompanied by some sunshine inland is starting to Kick off showers across Southcentral Alaska. Temperatures which started in the 30s across the Copper River Basin have started to rebound with sunshine and cloud breaks. except for gusty southeast winds along the Delta Coast, and sea breezes along Cook Inlet, winds are on the light side.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models overall in in generally good agreement with synoptic features through the short term. Local effect gap winds across Southcentral will likely be handled best by higher resolution models and hand edits.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR and generally light winds will persist. Showers developing this afternoon are expected to stay mainly to the east of the airport complex. Occasional gusty southerly winds late this afternoon into early evening are possible.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). An upper level trough is slowly moving through Southcentral Alaska from south-to-north this evening and overnight. The colder air aloft and some surface heating due to enough breaks in cloud cover is creating an unstable enough environment for numerous showers this evening. These showers should greatly diminish by late in the evening as the surface heating diminishes.

Wednesday will see the beginning of a warming and drying trend for the next few days. Some gusty northerly winds are likely to develop through channeled terrain in the Alaska Range Wednesday night and then models indicate they should diminish some during the day Thursday. There is some uncertainty as to how much they will diminish Thursday as they have a habit of persisting once they get going. This is the biggest area of concern in the current forecast.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3). Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms will end this evening as a low departs to the north. Skies will remain mostly cloudy Wednesday, especially near the coast. While scattered showers may redevelop near the mountains Wednesday afternoon/evening, the lack of instability due to the cloud cover should sufficiently inhibit any thunderstorms. An upper ridge will begin to have more of an influence over the area by Thursday, bringing partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3). A series of fronts will track across the western Aleutians through Friday bringing moderate rain and gusty southerly winds. An upper ridge will prevent these fronts from moving farther east. Thus, conditions east of and including Unalaska and the Pribilofs will remain generally benign through the end of the week.

MARINE (Days 3-5: Friday through Sunday). Gulf of Alaska: No significant winds or seas are expected. A weak low skirting the Gulf Friday however could briefly produce high end easterly small craft winds over the southern Gulf through Friday evening.

Bering Sea/Aleutians: A weather front will bring sub-gale southerly winds to the eastern Bering Sea/east Aleutians Friday. Winds will then diminish through Sunday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4-7: Saturday through Tuesday). The upper level Rex block over the mainland and the Gulf starts to break down Saturday as the upper ridge retreats north and splits. This allows the Upper low over the Gulf to track slowly north through early next weak. The increased easterly flow aloft will drive easterly waves west across Southcentral. This will result in cloudy conditions, increased chances of rain/showers, and cooler temperatures across much of Southcentral into early next week.

For Southwest Alaska, an upper level trough will setup over the southern mainland this weekend. This will generally bring increasing clouds and chances of showers. Any stronger upper waves could set off isolated thunderstorms in the afternoons, depending on how much instability and sunshine can develop earlier in the day.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning 177 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . RC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AP MARINE/LONG TERM . RC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK	28 mi	58 min	S 7 G 8.9	47°F			1025 hPa (+1.3)
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK	69 mi	58 min	WSW 8.9 G 9.9	49°F	49°F		1025.2 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK	33 mi	65 min	SSW 8	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	47°F	37°F	69%	1025.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for North Foreland, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for East Foreland, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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