Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Anchorage, AK

FXAK68 PAFC 011319 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 519 AM AKDT Fri May 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

A series of shortwave troughs will continue to impact the Gulf of Alaska and portions of Southcentral through early next week. These systems will have a good fetch of tropical moisture, as noted on satellite imagery this morning, and will bring moderate to heavy rainfall for lower elevations of the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and the northern Gulf Coast with snow at higher elevations. Radar reflectivity indicates that this mornings push of moisture has passed Middleton Island and will soon spread into Prince William Sound and Cordova within a few hours. Rainfall estimates over the past 24 hrs show modest accumulations with Kodiak City receiving 1.79 inches, Seward receiving 0.96 inches, and Whittier receiving 1.53 inches.

Water vapor imagery shows the next push of moisture quickly moving into the Southern Gulf from the North Pacific this morning. This push will enhance precipitation along the southern/eastern Kenai and northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon and evening. The strong southerly flow will also bring warmer temperatures north with snow levels rising into the 1500-2300 ft range by late tonight. Expect temperatures to remain pretty similar to the yesterday's temperatures, and possibly a degree or two warmer for some locations.

Aside from the moderate to heavy rain along the coast, snow is likely at elevations above 1500-2500 ft, especially through Thompson Pass Friday into Saturday and even down to the town of Valdez Friday evening into Saturday morning; however, models have been initializing surface and boundary layer temperatures much colder that current conditions indicate hinting that precipitation could be a rain/snow mix or all rain in Valdez. For Thompson Pass, heavy wet snow in combination with gusty southeasterly winds could significantly reduce visibility at times, especially Friday evening through early Saturday morning when the heaviest snow looks to fall.
A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for Thompson Pass to bring awareness to the heavy wet snow and low visibility potential.

Saturday will see a lull in widespread precipitation and conditions turn more showery as the shortwave lifts inland. This lull won't last long for the Gulf coast as another shortwave rides up the western periphery of the ridge in place over the eastern Gulf. While models are consistent with the feature working northward late Saturday into Sunday, they significantly differ on the exact track this plume of moisture and subsequent precipitation will take. The NAM and to some extent the GFS prefer a more easterly track with the bulk of the rainfall pushing towards Yakutat. The ECMWF and GEM prefer a more western track with the eastern Kenai and Prince William Sound getting the bulk of precipitation. For now, have trended the forecast between these solutions and will continue to modify the forecast as the solutions come into better agreement.

- PP
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