Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Anchorage, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge of high pressure has formed over the Central Bering and is approaching the Southwest coast. Lingering precipitation is expected to quickly conclude this morning, as the high pressure facilitates clearer skies, drier conditions, and warmer temperatures over the next few days. Periods of stratus and fog may form during the nighttime hours.

A North Pacific low in the western Bering Sea pushes its front eastward across the Aleutian chain today. Widespread gales will weaken between the Pribilof Islands and the western mainland just after midnight early Thursday morning. Precipitation from this system will spread eastward across Unalaska Wednesday afternoon, the Pribilof Island and Alaska Peninsula Thursday morning, and the Southwest mainland by Thursday afternoon. Widespread rain and snow will be possible across Southwest Alaska through the weekend.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...

The long term continues to be characterized by broad upper level troughing over the Bering, as a series of upper lows stretch from Eastern Siberia to Northwest Alaska to the Southern Bering for the beginning of the period. A weakening ridge over Southcentral to begin the weekend will quickly be pushed off to the east as the upper low becomes more organized and consolidates in the Southern Bering, rotating multiple rounds of shortwave energy across the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf.

Generally unsettled and showery weather can be expected across the Bering, Aleutian Chain, and Southwest Alaska through the weekend as a surface low tracking into the Gulf may linger some light precipitation across the region, with locally moderate rainfall possible along the AKPen. As the system pivots eastwards, southeasterly flow in the Gulf will drive mainly upslope-driven precipitation to Kodiak Island and along the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. An upstream surface low and its accompanying front lifting out of the North Pacific reinforces another chance for rain across the Aleutians as it skirts to the south of the island chain early next week. By the end of the forecast period, a lack of model agreement leads to decreasing confidence on the evolution of another potential storm in the Gulf for Tuesday.
Though some uncertainty remains on the overall strength of the system and eastward extent of precipitation, favored ensemble runs suggest another potential round of precipitation along the AKPen and northern Gulf coast.

AVIATION

PANC...Light northerly winds and mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There is a possibility that ceilings could briefly drop to MVFR if a shower moves over the terminal before precipitation chances end sometime late Wednesday morning.