Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Anchorage, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 10:03AMSunset 3:44PM Friday December 13, 2019 12:36 PM AKST (21:36 UTC) Moonrise 5:11PMMoonset 11:44AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 722 Am Akst Fri Dec 13 2019
.small craft advisory through tonight...
Today..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Tonight..E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
Sat..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Sat night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun through Tue..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchorage , AK
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location: 61.18, -149.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 131325 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 425 AM AKST Fri Dec 13 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

For the third night in a row, the overall upper air pattern remains somewhat unchanged as a weakening fully-stacked low in the Gulf of Alaska dominates the overall flow regime. There is a retrograding mid-level PV anomaly riding over the Alaska Range, with the leftover cloud cover lifting into the interior. A weakening cold upper trough over the Bering Sea is the remnant of a once stronger upper trough, and it sits over a remnant Arctic airmass over most of the Bering Sea. A dynamic mobile trough is now moving into the far Southwest Bering/Aleutians, which is bringing mixed rain/snow to Shemya, Adak, and Atka. Over the Mainland, weather remains mostly quiet as the pressure gradient is weak and mostly offshore (weak offshore flow), with most of the precipitation impacting the northern Gulf Coast. Some light freezing rain is still occurring over the Kuskokwim Delta in association with weak easterly waves moving overtop a shallow near surface warm layer. Over Southcentral, light rain/freezing rain is occurring across parts of Anchorage, and this is also observed on the 12z sounding as a shallow warm layer above the surface. Outside of the Copper Basin, temperatures continue to run well above normal for both daytime highs and lows.

MODEL DISCUSSION. The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement with the general synoptic pattern through Sunday. They differ, however, with the placement and orientation of a storm force low which will move over the Aleutian Chain as they seem to continue trending eastward, which currently has the storm force surface low directly over Dutch Harbor by Saturday. This forecast will trend this feature eastward favoring the NAM hi-res, with strong storm force winds on both sides of the low.

Thereafter, while the synoptic pattern is being handled well, the models differ with the track of a secondary NPAC low moving up toward the AKPEN Saturday night and Sunday, which would impact gap flows through Bristol Bay area and the front as it lifts toward the Gulf Coast. This will also make precipitation forecast challenging for Southwest Alaska as bands of warm air form into deformation zones as they move north. Forecast confidence is moderate.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist with spotty sprinkles today and this evening. Much uncertainty develops tonight as a weak disturbance passes through, bringing the possibility of a rain and snow mix and MVFR CIGS. For now will favor a more conservative approach introducing light rain/snow and VFR conditions for late tonight and Sat morning.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2. Fri and Sat) . The pattern will start to become slightly more active as we head toward the weekend. The vertically stacked low in the Gulf remains the dominant feature. It continues its slow drift to the north and as of 4am, is nearly due east of Kodiak City. Steady rain continues to fall along the Gulf Coast from Cordova over to Western Prince William Sound courtesy of this feature. There is enough upper level energy and mid level instability wrapping around the center to allow some of the showers to drift over the mountains and into areas around Cook Inlet. These showers are extremely light, however, with temperatures below freezing across most of the Anchorage Bowl and parts of the Matanuska Valley, anything that does fall could make for slippery road conditions.

The low will push right up against the southern Kenai Peninsula coast late this evening as it makes "landfall." This will continue to produce gale-force level winds into Prince William Sound as well as bring some gusty winds to the Turnagain Arm and Anchorage Hillside. The system will then drift right over Anchorage Saturday morning as it weakens. This should bring a brief period of gusty southeasterly winds into town. It will also provide our best chance of some light precipitation. At this point, this will likely fall as a wintry mix of snow and rain, and possibly some freezing rain. There will initially be some warm air at mountain top levels which could allow for some super cooled water droplets. However, cold air will filter in on the backside of the low and cause any lingering precipitation to fall as snow. Little to no accumulation is expected near sea level. For the higher elevations of Turnagain and Thompson Pass, a few inches of snow are likely, so weekend travelers should be prepared for that.

Late Saturday into Sunday, the pattern will continue to become more active as a warm front approaches the western Gulf of AK moving towards the Kenai Peninsula. This will bring southeast winds and steady rain back to the Gulf Coast with down-inlet winds for the Matanuska Valley and Cook Inlet area.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Several weak upper level waves have helped to allow light precipitation to continue over the inland areas of Bristol Bay this morning. Farther north, light precipitation has also been falling over areas along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. As midlevel instability persists, showers will likely continue over the area with little to no snow accumulation expected by the afternoon.

The next system arrives by Saturday as a front lifts inland, bringing gusty easterly flow. While downsloping is likely to occur, areas that do see precipitation will likely see snow to start with a change to rain rather quickly (or a mix of rain and snow in places) as southerly flow raises temperatures, especially along the Alaska Peninsula.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A weak ridge over the central Aleutians will move eastward today, bringing generally calmer conditions to the eastern Bering Friday evening. The next system, estimated at 957 mb and currently centered southwest of Shemya, is a strengthening low moving south along the Aleutian Chain. This low quickly regenerates south of Unalaska Island by late Friday night. As the low drifts slightly northward on Saturday, storm force marine winds are expected around the core of the low. The most recent change models have shown is a slightly shifted position to the east, which was updated in this morning's forecast.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday). Overall, confidence with positions of lows and fronts is above average. The primary forecast challenge is whether windspeeds top out at gale force or storm force. For now, will largely max winds out at gale force until have more confidence in the depth of these storm systems. The areas which will experience the strongest winds include the northern Gulf and eastern Aleutians Sunday through Sunday night, then out along the Aleutian Chain Sunday night through Tuesday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7). The global models are in good agreement with the northern Pacific low through Wednesday December 18th. There are some minor difference with the timing of two different cyclones that develop in the north Pacific and move into the Aleutians but the forecast intensity is only a few millibars off, and the forecast track is very similar. With above normal confidence, expect back to back lows to impact the Aleutians. The respective precipitation shields and pressure gradient force will move from west to east . in typical mid-latitude fashion. There is a dome of high pressure in the central Pacific with a ridge axis that moves into the Chain and serves as a lull between systems.

For Southcentral/AKPEN and southwest Alaska, the forecast period commences with a mature cyclone entering the region. Even through the Canadian/GFS and ECMWF are not in sync with the placement of the surface low, there is widespread consensus for onshore flow from the Kenai Peninsula to Kodiak and the Alaska Peninsula. This low decays and fills rapidly, ultimately becoming absorbed into the longwave pattern. The first aforementioned Pacific low is moving straight into the Gulf of Alaska and will undergo the process of frontolysis there . which means minimal impacts for Southcentral.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gales: 119, 120, 125, 130-132, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170, 171, 175-180, 352, 413. Storm: 172-174, 414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . JA SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MSO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KO MARINE/LONG TERM . PJS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 33 mi61 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 30°F 32°F1000.9 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 74 mi61 min 45°F998.3 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK21 mi41 minS 410.00 miOvercast27°F24°F89%1001.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAFR

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------------------------CalmCalmCalmS6S5CalmE3
1 day agoCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE6--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3----N5Calm
2 days agoE3E3N5NE3SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmE4NE3N5CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Fri -- 01:50 AM AKST     -1.97 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:51 AM AKST     30.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:07 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:47 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:09 PM AKST     5.91 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:40 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:12 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:36 PM AKST     31.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.7-0.4-1.91.1816.624.22930.228.424.41913.38.367.412.619.926.83131.428.52316.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.