Monday, July22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Anchorage, AK

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Sunrise 5:04AMSunset 11:07PM Monday July 22, 2019 2:46 PM AKDT (22:46 UTC) Moonrise 11:47PMMoonset 11:01AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 810 Am Akdt Mon Jul 22 2019
Today..W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tue night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchorage , AK
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location: 61.18, -149.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 221437 cca
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
413 am akdt Mon jul 22 2019

Analysis and upper levels
Subsidence from an upper level ridge stretching across the
interior of the state has limited the amount of convective cloud
cover, with satellite imagery indicating only a few clusters of
cumulus clouds lingering over the higher terrain overnight.

Pockets of low stratus remain over the southwest, but areal
coverage is trending down as the atmosphere becomes more unstable
on the back side of the ridge and the onshore flow weakens.

Satellite imagery also shows an slight increase in mid-level
clouds across the copper river basin overnight in association with
a sheared, weak shortwave undercutting the ridge.

The ridge is bookended by two upper-level lows, one south of the
gulf of alaska and a second spinning over eastern russia. A
vigorous shortwave currently tracking north over northern british
columbia will pinwheel around the parent gulf low and become the
focus for the next round of convective activity across southcentral
alaska as it lifts to the north and west the next two days. The low
over russia is associated with a sub gale- force frontal system
draped across the western bering. A southwesterly flow ahead of this
system is lifting a trough north across the pribilofs and is
beginning to displace some of the low stratus and fog that has
persisted for days across the bering.

A vertically stacked low south of atka is producing a small area
of easterly small-craft winds and low cloud cover across the
central aleutians. This system, however, is quickly filling in as
a new triple-point low develops downstream well-south of dutch
harbor.

Model discussion
Overall, models continue to agree on the bigger synoptic picture:
a northward retreating upper-level ridge, an easterly wave sliding
across the southern mainland, and a trough over the bering moving
toward the southwest coast before lifting up to the north.

That, however, is where the agreement ends, especially concerning
the progression of the easterly wave. The biggest issue is that
guidance wants to shear the shortwave as it moves across the
yukon, with a portion of that energy moving into the northwest
territories and another over southern alaska. The system then
becomes more like a series of vorticity maxima moving across the
region Monday night through Tuesday night as opposed to one
consolidated wave, and it is the timing of these maxima that is
inconsistent between models and even between runs of a specific
model. The 00z NAM and the hi-res models are fastest overall. The
00z GFS is slower with the evolution (with the latest 06z NAM run
now in line with the gfs). The 00z canadian and the 00z ECMWF are
the slowest. Given the fact that model consensus and consistency
is still quite poor, a blend of models with a heavier weight
toward the 00z GFS 06z NAM was used for timing and coverage of
clouds and precipitation.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Fire weather
Southcentral... Warm and mainly dry conditions are expected today
with the high pressure over the area. A few mountain showers are
possible, including a slight risk of wet thunderstorms in the
talkeetna mountains. Cooler conditions with higher humidities are
expected across the area on Tuesday as the high pressure pushes off
to the northeast and an easterly wave moves into the region. A
potential concern with this easterly wave is that in front of it,
from the western copper river basin through the susitna valley, it
could be a trigger for widespread convection.

Southwest... Fire weather concerns will be on the increase across
southwest alaska as the ridge slides east, clouds diminish, and
temperatures warm. The best chance for thunderstorm activity looks
to be Tuesday afternoon and evening as an easterly wave moves over
the interior of southwest alaska. The greatest chance for convection
will be along the alaska range and the kuskokwim valley.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
High pressure will remain over the area today, keeping most
locations under mainly sunny skies, light winds, and above
average temperatures. Even under the high pressure there will
still be a slight chance for showers in the mountains, and
possibly even a slight chance of some thunderstorms over the
talkeetna mountains.

Tuesday and Tuesday night will see a change from the dry pattern
with an inverted trough rotating around a low to the south that
will push into southcentral alaska from the east. This trough will
bring rain back to many areas around southcentral alaska with the
heaviest rain in the mountains. Although there is still some
uncertainty on the timing and strength of this trough, it looks
like the best chances for precipitation in the cook inlet area
will be Tuesday night. It will also bring a chance for some
thunderstorms ahead of it from the western copper river basin
through the susitna valley.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3: Monday
morning through Wednesday night)...

the upper level ridge that has been in place over southwest alaska
slowly departs to the east through the day today. Meanwhile at the
surface, generally weak onshore flow will allow fog to persist
along the coastal areas this morning, with some low level stratus
and fog being advected inland. As the high departs the region,
several upper level waves are expected to propagate over southwest
alaska from the east for Tuesday, inducing a pattern change. While a
rumble of thunder is possible this afternoon along the foothills of
the alaska range, the greater chance for convection will be Tuesday
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms become more likely over the middle
kuskokwim valley and interior areas of bristol bay through Tuesday
evening. By Wednesday, a front associated with a bering low will
approach the southwest coast, bringing precipitation and gusty
southerly winds.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3: Monday
morning through Wednesday night)...

an active pattern over the bering continues over the next few
days. A low centered south of the aleutian chain will bring
gusty southerly flow (especially through the usual gaps and
passes) to the central and eastern aleutians this morning as the
low moves east. Meanwhile, a front over the western bering weakens
and lifts northward this afternoon. By Tuesday, an upper level
low approaches the western bering, bringing westerly small craft
winds to the western aleutians. This low strengthens as it moves
over the bering for Wednesday, bringing westerly winds,
precipitation, and cloudy skies to the bering. Several upper level
waves rotating around the low will likely allow for these
conditions to continue through the end of the week.

Marine (days 3 through 5 Wednesday through Friday)
There is high confidence in active weather across the bering sea
and aleutians, and southwest alaska coastal waters. Expect
widespread small craft winds, though there is some potential for
smaller areas of gale force winds. This will depend on the exact
strength and track of these systems, which is hard to nail down
right now. The gulf looks quieter, though one of the storms
crossing the bering could reach the western gulf by Friday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7 Wednesday through Sunday)
Weather in the extended forecast period looks very active -
perhaps a shift toward what is more typical for late summer. A
high amplitude long-wave trough over the bering sea, supported by
a strong polar jet, will progress eastward toward mainland alaska
late in the week. There has been a lot of question about how far
this trough will intrude into the mainland. The latest operational
model runs and ensembles both support a more progressive solution,
perhaps bringing the trough all the way across the state next
weekend. If this were to verify, would expect cloudier, cooler,
and wetter conditions across both southcentral and southwest
alaska.

As far as specific storm systems, there is decent confidence in a
low crossing the northern bering sea Wednesday through Thursday,
with a trailing front crossing the aleutians Wednesday and
reaching southwest alaska on Thursday. Expect lots of rain and
wind with this front. After this, models quickly diverge on the
evolution of the upper trough - and thus on the track of the
surface features. However, they all indicate continuation of
progressive and dynamic upper level flow. Thus, expect unsettled
weather across the alaska region.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Tm
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ko
marine long term... Seb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 33 mi52 min W 6 G 7 62°F 61°F1017.4 hPa
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 60 mi56 min Calm G 3.9 60°F 60°F1019.8 hPa (+0.0)55°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 74 mi52 min 57°F1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK21 mi50 minW 410.00 miFair71°F54°F55%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from AFR (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Mon -- 12:41 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:53 AM AKDT     6.82 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:12 AM AKDT     26.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:04 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:03 PM AKDT     4.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:49 PM AKDT     28.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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28.125.321.316.511.786.88.913.819.824.526.625.92318.914.29.75.94.35.810.617.123.427.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.