Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Anchorage, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:39AMSunset 11:30PM Friday July 10, 2020 6:01 PM AKDT (02:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:19AMMoonset 10:41AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 352 Pm Akdt Fri Jul 10 2020
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Sun..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchorage , AK
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As of July 8 NOAA did a network migration which caused issues with this section. Sorry for the inconfience.
location: 61.18, -149.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 110050 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 450 PM AKDT Fri Jul 10 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. The upper level pattern has high pressure over the Bering Sea with a trough over Southcentral Alaska connecting an upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska with one near the northern AlCan border. This trough has been moving across Southcentral Alaska today and initiated some rain showers with it over the Mat-SU Valleys as the dynamics were stronger farther north. A very interesting feature over showed itself over northern Cook Inlet into the Kenai Peninsula this morning into early afternoon where a line of showers trained in a line from from Merrill Pass, to just north of Kenai to Skilak Lake. So why there? The atmosphere over Southcentral is unstable under the upper level trough, but south of the Susitna Valley, there was not enough low-level lift to initiate the convection. The exception is where gusty westerly winds out of Merrill Pass caused low-level convergence and therefore enough low-level lift to start the convective process.

Much of Southcentral Alaska and the eastern part of the Kuskokwim Valley are unstable enough for some Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. However, they are unlikely around the Anchorage Bowl as the flow is westerly which keeps thunderstorms out of Anchorage since they would have to develop over the Inlet.

Stable air over the Bering Sea is keeping moist air and stratus over that region.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models hold together through the weekend. The main focus on the models will be how they are trending run-to-run on the convective parameters. This weekend, they will largely be driven by a cool upper-level low digging from the western Interior into Southwest Mainland Alaska so track and strength of this low will be important.

Models do begin to break down some on Monday with a low in the Gulf of Alaska region. This continues then with a low in the Bering Sea mid- week next week. While not a terrible difference in models, it is enough to lower the confidence for the medium range forecast.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

An upper level trough over Interior Alaska continues to drop southward. This has brought unstable conditions to much of Southcentral with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon across the Susitna Valley, northern Copper River Basin, and Kenai Peninsula.

Showers are expected to continue through the weekend, becoming more widespread Saturday afternoon and evening as the upper level trough moves over Southwest Alaska which will send several upper level waves eastward. This disturbance could also produce some isolated thunderstorms along the foothills of the Alaska Range and the western Susitna Valley. Gusty southeasterly winds will pick up late Saturday through Turnagain Arm, the Knik River Valley, and the Copper River Basin as the low continues to drop toward the southeast and the pressure gradient strengthens.

Another burst of gusty southeasterly winds is possible through the aforementioned areas during the day on Sunday as the low continues to depart the area. Otherwise, expect generally fair conditions across the area through the weekend with the occasional isolated shower.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A pattern change is on the way for Southwest Alaska today as an upper level trough begins to move into the region from the east. This will allow for thunderstorm development as instability increases along the Alaska Range this afternoon into the evening. By Saturday, an upper level low at the base of the trough will allow for the unstable conditions to work their way into the remainder of interior Southwest, with widely scattered thunderstorms in the forecast. The convective potential continues into Sunday as instability across the region stays in place.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

High pressure positioned over the Bering will allow for patchy fog development and marine stratus over the area for the next several days. A front associated with a nearly stationary vertically stacked low south of Shemya will keep at small craft advisory level before weakening on Sunday. Rain also accompanies this system along the western and central Aleutians, sliding over Dutch Harbor through Sunday afternoon.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday).

Winds over the western Bering and Aleutians weaken towards the end of the weekend as high pressure builds over the Bering. Models are trying to develop a low south to southwest of Shemya for Tuesday afternoon, but the placement of this low system is still the biggest uncertainty. This difference in placement and track is the difference between a front moving over the western and central Aleutians late Tuesday into Wednesday versus the low staying south of the Aleutian Chain.

Over the Gulf, there is higher confidence that a low will move into the region late Sunday. However, there is still uncertainty as to how far north the associated front will lift and whether small craft advisory level winds will be reached.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Monday through Thursday).

The overall pattern for Tuesday of next week will likely be similar to what we have over the region today with High pressure over the Bering Sea and an Upper-level low in the Gulf. Interior parts of southern Alaska will be convectively unstable, but it is too early to define these exact areas at this point.

As the week progresses, the high pressure over the Bering Sea will likely ease eastward bringing more stable conditions to southwest Alaska. Southcentral will likely see unstable conditions continue through most of the week, but whether that will likely keep afternoon and evening showers and/or thunderstorm potential over the mountains.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . KO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/EZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 33 mi44 min W 12 G 14 60°F 59°F1007.2 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 74 mi44 min 57°F1007.7 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK21 mi66 minVar 410.00 miFair68°F55°F63%1007.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAFR

Wind History from AFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3N4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmSW8SW7SW6S7
1 day agoCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN3NE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalmSE3NE3
2 days agoCalmSW4W5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmNW3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:21 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:42 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:50 AM AKDT     6.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:14 AM AKDT     26.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:44 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:03 PM AKDT     3.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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28.526.122.117.111.986.89.114.12024.626.726.123.419.414.59.35.13.34.99.916.622.826.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.