Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 10:17PM Sunday August 9, 2020 4:16 AM AKDT (12:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:50PMMoonset 11:23AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 351 Am Akdt Sun Aug 9 2020
Today..NW wind 10 kt becoming sw 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed through Thu..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 090053 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 453 PM AKDT Sat Aug 8 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A broad upper trough continues to support general low pressure over much of the Southern Mainland. Weak upper waves embedded in the upper trough support areas of showers across the Mainland and northern Gulf Coast. Weak ridging along the North Gulf Coast will give rise to locally gusty winds along Turnagain Arm, Knik River Valley, and along the Copper River through this afternoon and evening. A surface low southwest of Saint Matthew Island is supported by an upper low which dropped southeast out of eastern Russia. The surface low and its associated frontal trough are producing widespread cloud cover and light rain over the Bering Sea/Aleutians. Gusty southwesterly winds were also evident south and east of the surface low.

Water Vapor satellite imagery shows distinct dry air intrusion, associated with rapid surface cyclogenesis, along the baroclinic zone south of the Alaska Peninsula. Visible satellite imagery and pressure falls at bouy 46066 this morning indicated an intensifying surface low heading quickly northeast. This will be the center forecast to bring storm force winds into the Gulf tonight and Sunday.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models have come into good agreement on the developing storm moving into the Gulf tonight. It looks like the more eastward track will prevail, so leaning more towards the NAM/EC.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions will continue into Sunday Afternoon, though ceiling may fall below 5000 ft with the onset of rain. Gusty southeasterly winds are expected across the airport complex this evening.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Scattered showers will continue across Southcentral through this evening as a strengthening low enters the Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the western Kenai Peninsula and Susitna Valley. The associated front will track over the Gulf Coast late tonight into early Sunday morning, bringing gusty easterly winds and steady rain, gradually diminishing by afternoon as the low departs over the Panhandle. Scattered showers will likewise redevelop Sunday afternoon slightly farther east, extending towards the Copper River Basin. Although the thunderstorm potential will not be as favorable as today, a few isolated storms are still possible in the Susitna Valley. A band of moderate rain looks to form along the Glenn Highway between Glennallen and Palmer with localized totals of a inch attainable. The same general pattern will persist on Monday, with a higher likelihood of showers occurring in the Anchorage bowl.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Scattered showers were occurring this afternoon on a line from Newtok to northwest of Quinhagak as an upper level shortwave continues to push onshore and moves inland. Areas that see the shower activity this afternoon and evening will see a decrease or lull in the activity overnight. Another round of showers are expected for the above regions Sunday morning and afternoon as the next round of energy with the main upper level trough swings through. Areas further to the east that miss out on the first round of showers this afternoon will get in on the action Sunday morning through Sunday evening as the main upper level trough swings through the area. This includes Cape Newenham, Togiak, Dillingham, Egegik, King Salmon, and Goodnews Bay. Areas further inland including Bethel to Aniak are expected to remain dry for most of Sunday. The best chance for Bethel to see a shower will come late in the day Sunday.

Day cloud Phase Distinction Satellite Imagery was showing convection (clouds with vertical growth to them) growing over the western Alaska Range this afternoon. As a result, the mention of an isolated thunderstorm producing a possible lightning strike was left in the forecast. Other than that, expect this area to remain unsettled through early Monday.

Winds were also increased across Kamishak Gap as the gradient tightens due to a potent storm system moving northeast into the Gulf of Alaska.

Another upper level wave is expected to pass through the western areas (west of and including the Kuskokwim Mountains) of Southwest Alaska Monday that will bring the threat for more showers.

Monday night into Tuesday an upper level ridge is expected to build over the eastern Bering that will result in northerly flow off the mainland. This is a drying wind that will keep much of Southwest dry with dissipating clouds.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A low currently situated over the northern Bering will continue moving eastward towards Southwest Alaska through Sunday morning while dissipating. As a result, rain showers are expected to continue for the Pribilofs through Sunday morning. On the southern side of this low, small craft advisory level winds were being observed and are expected to continue through Sunday morning.

Another frontal system approaches the western Aleutian Island Chain this evening bringing rain showers and more small craft advisory level winds to the area. The strongest winds are expected across Shemya tonight through Sunday morning. As the front continues to push eastward, this band of winds will continue to push east with it. As the initial front pushes eastward, it will become sheared apart (frontolysis) as an upper level ridge builds across the central Bering. The main low will move very slowly across the western Bering/Aleutians Sunday night through Monday night as an upper level ridge builds out ahead of it slowing its forward speed. This low will also become vertically stacked as it occludes over the area Monday evening. Another wave of upper level energy will bring a steadier and heavier rain mainly to the marine zones south and west of Dutch Harbor beginning Monday morning and continuing through early Tuesday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tue through Thu).

Low pressure over the Gulf Tuesday afternoon weakens through the evening hours. Looking to the west, models are in good agreement with a low positioned northwest of Adak Tuesday afternoon. The associated front, bringing widespread showers and small craft advisory winds, will continue to push into the Southwest coast by late Tuesday as the system slides eastward and weakens through Thursday morning. Model confidence decreases Wednesday afternoon as some models try to develop a weak low south of Kodiak Island, which would continue into the Gulf through Thursday. However, models agree that winds should remain below gale force throughout the forecast period.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Wed through Sat).

A front moving in over Southwest Alaska on Wednesday afternoon associated with a weakening low in the Bering will bring a chance of rain showers to the region. However, models are struggling with the position of the associated low and whether it will keep a track farther south, which would keep a drier solution for the Southwest coast with the majority of the precipitation over the Alaska Peninsula. Meanwhile, over Southcentral Alaska, models are hinting at an upper level wave moving into the region, which will keep a widespread chance of showers in the forecast through Thursday with this system. A low trying to develop over the Gulf will bring the next chance of showers to the North Gulf Coast for the end of the week into the beginning of the weekend. There is still model uncertainty as to how far north this low and associated front will move.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . STORM WARNING 119 352 GALE WARNING 351 120 131. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . RMC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AP SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MV MARINE/LONG TERM . AH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi47 min E 2.9 G 5.1 55°F 59°F1007 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi47 min NNE 7 G 8.9 57°F 59°F1006.4 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi47 min 59°F1004.7 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi24 minN 010.00 miOvercast53°F48°F86%1006.5 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi24 minN 010.00 miOvercast54°F46°F77%1006.4 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi21 minN 010.00 miOvercast52°F47°F84%1006 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PALH

Wind History from ALH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4N5NW4CalmCalmSW5S646--S11
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1 day ago4NE4CalmN6N8N4NW4N3NW6W4NW6NW7NW6NW7NW3NW6NW4NW5N4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:00 AM AKDT     5.48 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:27 AM AKDT     26.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:22 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:10 PM AKDT     5.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:13 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:48 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:52 PM AKDT     28.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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28.525.721.416.411.27.15.57.21218.123.426.226.123.820.115.811.37.55.66.610.917.123.227.3

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:55 AM AKDT     2.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:29 AM AKDT     26.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:22 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:05 PM AKDT     3.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:13 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:45 PM AKDT     28.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:48 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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27.623.618.313.395.12.96.913.919.823.525.825.823.118.713.58.65.33.25.913.320.124.527.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.