Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:29AMSunset 4:55PM Monday January 27, 2020 8:08 PM AKST (05:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:00AMMoonset 7:25PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 402 Pm Akst Mon Jan 27 2020
.brisk wind advisory Tuesday night...
Tonight..NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt.
Tue..NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon.
Tue night..N wind 25 kt.
Wed..NE wind 20 kt.
Wed night..NE wind 10 kt.
Thu through Sat..NE wind 10 kt.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 280124 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 424 PM AKST Mon Jan 27 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. The upper long wave trough extends south along roughly 150w through Southcentral with a upper ridge over the central Bering Sea. At the surface, there is a fairly compact surface low moving west across the Southern Kenai Peninsula with high pressure over the interior. The resultant thermal and pressure gradients are producing strong outflow winds across the eastern Kenai Peninsula as well as Thompson Pas and Copper River Delta. A combination of winds and bands of snow/snow showers associated the surface low are producing low visibilities in blowing snow across the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Thompson Pass. Broad offshore flow and cold temperatures over Southwest Alaska continue to generate winds over the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay zones. Strong northerly gap winds with cold advection were also observed through the gaps in the Alaska Peninsula.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models in the broad sense are in somewhat good agreement on the courser scale with the next storm center to enter the Gulf Tuesday, but then diverge significantly Wednesday with the handling of the surface flow. Confidence is fairly high on wind potential for the Gulf on Tuesday and Tuesday night and snow for Kodiak. Confidence is fairly low after this time frame.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions should persist in general into Tuesday. However, there could be a short period overnight where snow showers my drop ceilings and visibilities into the MVFR category.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). A polar low is lifting northwest across the southern half of the Kenai Peninsula this evening with its associated front lifting inland across the northern reaches of Prince William Sound. This has produced a more southerly flow aloft and along the coast and has helped to relax both the pressure gradient and outflow winds. The heavy snow and blowing snow that impacted locations from Girdwood and Portage south to Seward today is diminishing as the low continues to to move toward Cook Inlet. Flurries and/or occasional light snow is possible from Kenai north to Talkeetna overnight as moisture advects over the area.

Elsewhere, a secondary trough near Middleton Island is bringing another round of snow to Cordova, working west toward Valdez and Thompson Pass tonight. This feature will allow the gusty winds through Thompson Pass to continue through late evening before winds switch to the southeast behind the trough. A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for the pass until 9pm tonight.

Another compact low will bring more snow and easterly winds to Cordova on Tuesday with the precipitation shield sliding west over Prince William Sound by later in the day. Also on Tuesday, a storm-force low will begin to track north into the Gulf. The pressure gradient along the coast will reestablish itself by Tuesday afternoon, with very strong outflow winds once again impacting the usual coastal gaps and passes, especially across the Valdez waterways and Thompson Pass, where blizzard conditions could once again take hold by late Tuesday afternoon.

Farther south and west, the low will deepen quickly as both it and its associated front moves toward Kodiak Island. This will produce widespread storm-force winds across the northern Gulf, southern half of Cook Inlet, and Shelikof Strait. Strong northeasterly winds across Kodiak Island will be accompanied by snow which is expected to last through Wednesday morning, and could produce blizzard conditions at times. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued with the afternoon forecast package.

By Wednesday, the front will move along the Southcentral coast with another round of snow and blowing snow expected for Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3). Arctic high pressure persists over northern Alaska, maintaining strong northeast winds and cold, clear conditions over much of the Southwest Mainland. A Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay area through Thursday. Wind chills have flirted with 40 below in Aniak with periodic wind gusts. Though some "ocean-effect" snow showers occurred overnight (Sunday night) along the Kuskokwim Delta coast, the offshore flow component looks too strong for precipitation over the next few days. That said, any precipitation would bring a big drop in visibilities due to blowing snow. So it will be important for coastal areas to monitor the forecast over the coming days. A low approaching the Gulf Wednesday will bring an increase in cloud cover and an increase in winds, particularly for the interior Bristol Bay/AKPEN area. Expect a slight warm-up from the increased cloud cover, but winds will ramp up in conjunction so hazardous wind chills remain possible. Precipitation will likely be limited to the south side of the Alaska/Aleutian range.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3). Arctic high pressure persists over northern Alaska, maintaining strong northeast flow and cold air advection over the Bering and Aleutians. High pressure over eastern Siberia maintains a relatively warmer air mass over the western Bering and western Aleutians. Periods of "ocean-effect" snow will persist over the Bering Sea, Pribilof Islands and Aleutians for the next few days as cold air flows over the warmer waters of the Bering. As is typical in this pattern, expect enhanced gap winds through the eastern Aleutians/AKPEN. Gap winds will likely gust to storm force Wednesday into Thursday, as general flow backs to NNW and geostrophic winds peak. A cold front will approach the western Aleutians Thursday, increasing precipitation and shifting winds to westerly.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5. Thursday through Saturday) Gulf of Alaska: Persistent low pressure is expected to remain in the Gulf through the end of the week. After the leading edge of the storm force low moves inland Thursday morning, strong northwesterly to westerly flow is expected on the backside of the low with gales and storm force gusts over the western Gulf through Friday. Gap flow winds, especially over Kamishak Bay and Wide Bay (south of Kodiak Island) will last through the weekend. These gap winds will likely peak Friday night into Saturday morning.

Bering Sea and Aleutians: Gusty northerly flow is expected over the eastern Bering Thursday before tapering off early Friday. The next concern is a gale force low approaching the western Aleutians Friday. The leading front will move east across the Aleutians Friday into Saturday, introducing warmer southerly flow to the southern Bering for the weekend.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7. Friday through Monday) Remnant low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is expected to move eastward Friday as a building upper level ridge approaches from the west. Attention then shifts westward as an incoming gale force low approaches the western Aleutians Friday into Saturday. While models remain inconsistent with the track of this low, there is some potential for a pattern change across southern Alaska for the beginning of next week as warmer southerly flow pushes eastward into the Gulf of Alaska.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Blizzard Warning 131 (T-Pass). Winter Storm Watch 171. Wind Chill Advisory 155 161. MARINE . Storm Warning 119 120 130 131 138. Gale Warning 126>128 132 136 137 139 150 155 165 170>177 179 180. Heavy Freezing Spray 121 127 130 138 139 141 150 155 165 170 171 179 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . RC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MM MARINE/LONG TERM . KO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi75 min 6°F 990.2 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi75 min 9°F 29°F990.7 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi75 min 42°F987.7 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi76 minNE 610.00 miFair4°F-6°F63%990.2 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi76 minNNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy6°F-8°F52%989.9 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi76 minE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy1°F-7°F68%990.1 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi2.2 hrsNNE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy3°F-6°F67%989.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PALH

Wind History from ALH (wind in knots)
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NE5E5N9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSE4S6CalmCalmCalmE4E5E6E4N9N11
2 days agoNE5NE3NE5E5NE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:25 AM AKST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:26 AM AKST     29.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:30 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:06 AM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:51 PM AKST     5.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:55 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:20 PM AKST     28.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:44 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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16.810.34.40.91.25.71320.826.729.629.426.822.416.911.26.85.5813.520.225.628.327.824.8

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:42 AM AKST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:23 AM AKST     29.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:30 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:06 AM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:56 PM AKST     3.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:55 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:23 PM AKST     27.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:43 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.3105.71.60.36.815.121.125.828.928.524.819.614.49.75.93.87.915.521.425.427.627.223.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.