Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 6:43PM Sunday March 7, 2021 7:31 PM AKST (04:31 UTC) Moonrise 5:28AMMoonset 9:43AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 328 Pm Akst Sun Mar 7 2021
Tonight..NE wind 10 kt. Areas of freezing fog.
Mon..NE wind 10 kt. Areas of freezing fog.
Mon night..N wind 10 kt.
Tue..NW wind 10 kt.
Tue night..W wind 15 kt.
Wed through Fri..N wind 15 kt.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 080203 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 503 PM AKST Sun Mar 7 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

In the upper levels, the broad low pressure system over the Kamchatka Peninsula has moved over the western Bering with the associated trough now extending south across the western Aleutians. Farther east, the ridge over western Alaska is continuing to move east. Between the two upper level features, deep southwest flow is bringing relative warm air and areas of precipitation to the western and central Aleutians and western Alaska. A potent low pressure system continues to rotate over the eastern Gulf.

Additionally, low level ash emissions from the Veniaminof Volcano located north of Perryville remained visible on satellite imagery. Flow was westerly through the last few hours but has begun to turn southerly.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model guidance is in general agreement with the synoptic features through mid week, although there are slight differences with timing, as well as the strength of the low level system developing in the western Gulf, moving toward the Prince William Sound area for Wednesday. At this point, the differences don't make a big difference on the forecast, but will likely make an impact as we move closer Tuesday. By the end of the week, models develop more significant differences with regard to the systems possibly affecting the Bering and western Aleutians.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the daylight hours. Expect MVFR vis/cigs to develop with fog potential overnight, with IFR cigs possible. Light northerly winds will continue.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3: Tonight through Tuesday) .

Dry weather tonight and Monday across Southcentral. A tight pressure gradient has set up over Southcentral. Enhanced gap winds and offshore winds will continue this evening and will be most pronounced over the Barren Islands and Copper River Delta. Early Monday morning an upper level ridge will into the region, ushering in warmer air aloft. Warm air over cold air is inherently stable. It's possible that fog may develop in portions of Southcentral Monday morning around Cook Inlet, the Mat-Su Valleys and Copper River Basin. Looking upstream, there is a front moving into Western Alaska. By late Monday, Katmai National Park and Kodiak will get precipitation from the leading edge of the precipitation shield. Tuesday morning, moisture will have advected into Seldovia, Homer and up the Cook Inlet. By Tuesday afternoon, the next batch of snow will be impacting the Anchorage Bowl, Talkeetna, Hatcher Pass and the Parks Highway. Tuesday and Wednesday Prince William Sound and the Chugach Mountains will see the heftiest accumulations of new snow.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A complicated forecast is in store for Southwest AK. A very strong front is slowing encroaching from the Bering. A persistent push of warm air ahead of the front keeps Southwest mostly above freezing today and tomorrow. Precipitation is expected to be a rain/snow mix for most inland areas or all rain along the coast, AKPEN and eastern portion of the Kuskokwim Delta from Bethel east. Gusty winds ahead of the front, with the strongest winds along the coasts, should keep temperatures on the warmer side. Thus, blowing snow is not expected to be an issue with this system. Rain/snow mix will track across the Southwest Mainland from west to east with the front. Colder air returns behind the front, dropping temperatures back to below freezing for most areas by Tuesday. Several embedded weak meso-low within a series of shortwaves behind the low track across the Bering and Southwest. Overall, Southwest should become relatively quiet by Tuesday morning. Any lingering precipitation behind the front, or any precipitation associated with these mesolow, will be brief periods of light snowfall.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A front continues on track towards the Southwest Coast this afternoon, with strong southerly flow ahead and along the front. The warm air push across the eastern Bering allows for the rain showers to continue across the Eastern Aleutians, Southern AKPEN and Pribilof Islands through tonight. Behind the front, winds begin to diminish and become primarily westerly, carrying much colder air with it. Freezing and heavy freezing spray will be reintroduced into the norther and western portions of the Bering, as well as along the Western Aleutian coasts, by tonight. Multiple shortwaves and embedded meso-low push across the Bering behind the front as well. Periods of light snowfall is likely along the Western and Central Aleutians as these waves pass. Broad high pressure moves across the Bering on Wednesday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday).

Bering: A series of troughs with locally up to small craft winds will cross the Bering from west to east on Wed, with small craft or lower westerlies expected away from the troughs. Westerly winds could locally be as high as gales on the south side of each trough, but confidence for the track and timing of each wave is low at this time. Seas on Wed up to 10 feet. Another front will approach the western Bering by Thu, with southerly gales spreading into the western Bering Thu morning into early Fri. Seas building to up to 20 ft across the western Bering by Thu and Fri. A North Pacific low may approach the southern Bering and Central Aleutians on Fri, but track and timing for this next low remains uncertain. Expect potential for winds to increase to high gales to possibly low storms over parts of the central to western Bering for Fri, however exact timing and track of enhanced winds will depend on the low track.

Gulf of Alaska: A low will move into the central Gulf and then into or just south of the Prince William Sound on Wednesday. Widespread westerly small craft to gale force winds will spread across the central and southern Gulf south of the low center through Thu. Seas building from 10 to 15 feet from Wed to Thu. The low center will dive south towards the southern Gulf on Fri with small craft to gale force winds continuing and becoming northwesterly over the western gulf through Fri. Seas building to 20 feet in the western Gulf on Fri.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday) .

The large scale pattern from long term guidance remains in decent agreement for the Bering, Gulf and mainland AK, but some discrepancies do emerge across mainly the Bering by Saturday.

A longwave trough is likely to become the dominant influence over the mainland by Thursday and Friday this week, and the preceding warm spell over Southcentral early in the week will likely be cut short as a cold, Arctic air mass spills in from the northwest. This pattern will favor much colder and drier than average conditions over mainland AK from Wednesday to Friday, with offshore flow and the potential for stronger outflow winds for the typical spots near the North Gulf Coast from Thursday to Saturday. Longwave ridging will develop into the eastern Bering, while low pressure and troughing will persist in the northern and western Bering. Models diverge with the handling of a stronger shortwave rounding the base of this trough, with varying degrees of northeast progression of the wave depicted by operational models on Friday and Saturday. Despite the uncertainty, this will generally favor active and stormy conditions over the western Bering with multiple rounds of rain/snow and stronger southerly winds.

By Sunday, model agreement continues to lessen with global models trying to progress the western trough towards the Southwest/AKPEN while the longwave ridge moves farther east into the mainland with the Arctic air beginning to retreat up into the Yukon. This could lead to a warming trend beginning over mainland AK with the potential for another frontal system to move up the AKPEN into southcentral. However, the progress of this next system and related warming will greatly depend on how quickly the upstream ridging and surface high pressure associated with the cold air mass erode or advect east. This is a dynamic models can be overly optimistic about, especially looking this far out in time, so the cold and dry pattern for Southcentral could still linger on for longer into next week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185 411. Gale Warnings 155 160 165 170 172 179 180-185 414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . NR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . PS SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KM MARINE/LONG TERM . AS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi56 min WNW 5.1 G 6 27°F 30°F1024.8 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi44 min ENE 7 G 8 23°F 29°F1024.1 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi50 min 40°F1020.1 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi39 minNW 310.00 miFair19°F13°F77%1024.7 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi39 minNW 310.00 miA Few Clouds22°F14°F71%1024.5 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi39 minNNW 310.00 miFair24°F12°F60%1024.3 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi96 minNE 410.00 miFair26°F10°F52%1023.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PALH

Wind History from ALH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NW4NW5NE3W4NW5NW4NW3
1 day agoNW4N5N5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmW3Calm
2 days agoNE4CalmCalmN3E4NE33N5N4N5N6N4N5N7N5NE6NE6NE8NE5N5NE4NE6N6N4

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Sun -- 01:26 AM AKST     24.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:27 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:40 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:53 AM AKST     10.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:42 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:20 PM AKST     26.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:42 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:38 PM AKST     4.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.524.424.322.920.517.413.911.110.111.815.820.624.626.426.124.221.117.112.57.94.74.36.911.7

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:10 AM AKST     25.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:27 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:40 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:02 AM AKST     9.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:42 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:49 PM AKST     26.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:41 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:08 PM AKST     2.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.424.125.224.321.417.112.910.49.210.614.819.723.225.526.124.520.516.211.97.74.22.33.68.5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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