Wednesday, August5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Knik-Fairview, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 10:28PM Wednesday August 5, 2020 5:38 PM AKDT (01:38 UTC) Moonrise 10:31PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 401 Pm Akdt Wed Aug 5 2020
Tonight..S wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat through Sun..S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knik-Fairview, AK
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location: 61.38, -149.8     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 060108 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 508 PM AKDT Wed Aug 5 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A narrow ridge of high pressure is allowing another day of generally sunny and warm weather today from the Kenai Peninsula northward into the Susitna Valley. Just to the east of this ridge, the remnants of the low that moved through the Gulf yesterday continue to slowly dissipate and shift east. A deformation band just west of this low is also bringing rainfall to Eastern Prince William Sound, as well as some thunderstorm activity beginning to move westward into the Copper River Basin. Rainfall from the incoming Bering Sea low is beginning to show on coastal radar sites as it spreads eastward. This rain will continue to spread throughout the southwest Mainland today, and also help to scour out the fog and stratus that developed this morning in Bristol Bay.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Synoptic model agreement remains good through the work week, and is beginning to improve as both the NAM/GFS have trended weaker with the developing triple point low in the Gulf. As a result, confidence is increasing that winds will remain just below gale force outside of the Barren Islands, as well as widespread rains primarily for the Gulf Coast.

AVIATION. PANC . Expect VFR conditions today, with increasing SE winds out of Turnagain Arm late this afternoon. Confidence is good that these winds will continue through the evening hours before beginning to diminish early Thursday morning. Low level winds are expected to continue, so there is a chance that areas of LLWS may develop as the surface wind drops. It doesn't appear that this would be strong enough to include in the TAF, so it was left out for the 18z package.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Friday) .

The low pressure system over the Eastern Gulf will continue to bring cyclonic flow to the eastern half of Southcentral through tonight with more widespread showers from roughly Valdez to Cordova and areas eastward as currently seen on radar. Otherwise west of the Copper River Basin isolated showers remain possible mainly over the higher terrain and may occasionally spill over into valley locations. The forecast holds onto a slight chance for thunderstorms until around 10 PM this evening with the best chances over the Copper River Basin. Our focus then shifts to the next weather system with satellite showing high clouds spilling over the ridge into Southcentral ahead of this next low pressure system with rain moving towards Kodiak Island.

The frontal system will move into Kodiak Island and the Gulf tonight and push into the Northern Gulf by Thursday. This will bring moderate to heavy rainfall to Kodiak Island tonight spreading to the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound areas on Thursday. We adjusted rainfall amounts for the Seward area down slightly as low level flow becomes easterly tomorrow and the upper wave pushes quickly across the Gulf. The remainder of Southcentral will experience downslope flow and will thus remain mostly dry, with just a chance of passing light showers.

Additionally, gap winds will increase ahead of this front. As the front approaches Southcentral, pressure gradients between Anchorage and Homer favor the Turnagain wind bending southward and staying out of Anchorage. We expect the strongest winds mainly over the upper Hillside and Turnagain Arm (clipping west Anchorage), with lighter winds on the lower Hillside and east Anchorage. Eagle River and the S Curves along the Glenn Highway may see some gusts, especially through the southeast to northwest oriented valleys.

As we head into Friday, the frontal system will weaken and downslope effects will diminish with precipitation generally more showery, especially inland. The Turnagain Arm winds will also diminish as this system pulls away.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). Wetting rains from the frontal zone remains a topic for this forecast package, and trailing rain bands associated with the weakening frontal system in the next day will bring additional wetting rains over Southwest Alaska through at least Friday afternoon. At 500mb, a series of shortwaves moving across Southwest will increase cloud coverage and chances of more rainfall on Friday. Overall, anticipate wet conditions and cool temperatures to linger through the next two days before conditions improve on Saturday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

Strong gale force gusts arrived a bit earlier but briefly over Cold Bay and portions of central Aleutians this morning, then trending downward to near small craft conditions the rest of the afternoon. As the frontal boundary approaches Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) Thursday morning, the timestamp for gales spreading across central Aleutians through the south of AKPEN is still on track.

An upper level trough over the Western Bering Sea will extend southwest before passing through the Western Aleutians eastward starting Thursday afternoon through Friday. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary from Siberia will trail right behind the upper level trough, and the onset of the frontal boundary will elevate winds to small craft conditions over the Western Bering starting Friday morning before spreading over Western Aleutians Friday evening. Essentially another series of steady rain and lingering fog and low clouds will be focused over the region as the next frontal system enters the area in the coming days.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday).

Bering Sea/Aleutians

A Southwest Alaska low moves into the Gulf of Alaska by Sat. Confidence is good for rear flank small craft winds and waves over the Eastern Bering and Bristol Bay diminishing Sat. A low exiting Anadyr moves across the Bering through Sun. Although model tracks are mixed, confidence is good for westerly small craft winds to move across the Bering and diminish Sun. A North Pacific low approaches the Western Aleutians and Bering for Sun. Confidence is good for southerly small craft winds with local gales over the Western Aleutians through Sun.

Gulf of Alaska

A low and its front to the east of Kodiak Island tracks into the Northeastern Gulf for Sun. With consistent model tracking, confidence is good for easterly small craft winds and waves through Sun with local gales near capes ahead of the front for coastal zones diminishing Sat. Expect Widespread westerly small craft winds through Sun with local gales diminishing Sat move across the Gulf.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday). Confidence is continuing to increase that an active pattern in the Bering Sea will continue through this weekend. Model guidance has trended significantly weaker with the first low that will dive into the Bering from Siberia late this weekend, but guidance continues to be very good with the track/intensity of the North Pacific low that will move east through the Bering early next week. This system will be much more significant for the South Mainland, as there is general good agreement that its associated front will bring widespread rain to most areas by the middle of next week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . GALES: 130, 150, 155, 165, 170-175, 179, 185, 414 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . DK SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . RC/MSO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CB MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/DK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 11 mi51 min SSW 14 G 17 72°F 58°F1002.6 hPa
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 89 mi49 min ESE 14 G 18 58°F 58°F1 ft1007.1 hPa (+0.0)56°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 89 mi57 min 59°F1006.3 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK8 mi1.7 hrsW 610.00 miFair71°F54°F55%1002.5 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK12 mi46 minSSE 11 G 2110.00 miLight Rain75°F48°F40%1002.2 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK15 mi43 minVar 310.00 miFair70°F53°F55%1003.5 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK16 mi46 minS 14 G 2310.00 miFair72°F51°F48%1002.7 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK18 mi46 minSSE 15 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F51°F49%1002.1 hPa
Wasilla, Wasilla Airport, AK23 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair72°F51°F48%1003.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAED

Wind History from AED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13W12W9W10CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmS6S7S4CalmSW4S7SW7S6SW7W7SW5SW7W6S14
G19
1 day agoS13S11S7S7E6NE3CalmN4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5NW8N8N6NW3W9
2 days agoN4S9S10CalmCalmNW6NE5N4CalmN3N3CalmN3N3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmN5CalmS6S14

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:11 AM AKDT     4.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:43 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:59 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:53 AM AKDT     29.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:29 PM AKDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:40 PM AKDT     30.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:30 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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19.913.37.64.96.211.318.224.728.829.928.224.117.910.74-0.1-0.14.411.819.826.229.730.228

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:41 AM AKDT     3.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:43 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:59 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:59 AM AKDT     29.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:02 PM AKDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:40 PM AKDT     29.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:30 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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18.51395.44.211.218.724.22829.827.622.516.911.97.22.8-0.73.812.219.324.728.228.926.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.