Wednesday, January29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Knik-Fairview, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:27AMSunset 4:57PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 9:09 PM AKST (06:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:07AMMoonset 9:43PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 349 Pm Akst Tue Jan 28 2020
.brisk wind advisory tonight...
Tonight..NE wind 15 kt becoming N wind 25 kt this evening.
Wed..NE wind 20 kt.
Wed night..N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt.
Thu and Thu night..Variable wind less than 10 kt.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt.
Sat..NE wind 15 kt.
Sun..N wind 20 kt.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knik-Fairview, AK
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location: 61.38, -149.8     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 290143 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 443 PM AKST Tue Jan 28 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A broad long wave trough extends south across the mainland and phases with a short wave over the southern Gulf of Alaska. A strong southerly jet (120Kt plus), associated with a rapidly occluding surface low in the southern Gulf of Alaska, is evident by a pronounced dry slot on satellite imagery to the south and east of the surface center. Satellite imagery also shows a well defined occluded front associated with the low. Cold northerly air flowing off the Southwest Mainland is evident by open and closed cell cumulus over the eastern Bering Sea and eastern ALeutians. Strong and gusty winds squeezing through the gaps in the Alaska Peninsula are depicted by cloud streets south of the Alaska Peninsula. Cold temperatures and gusty northerly winds continue to produce low wind chills across Southwest Alaska.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models on synoptic scale are in generally good agreement in the short term. They struggle though in the evolution and movement of the occluding surface low and developing triple point center. Timing and placement will affect winds and precipitation potential.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions should persist through tonight. North winds will increase this evening and stay fairly gusty through tonight.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). A storm force low has entered the southern Gulf this afternoon, which will continue to be the predominant weather driver across Southcentral for the next few days. A Blizzard Warning has been issued for Kodiak Island starting this evening for high winds, heavy snowfall and reduced visibility through tomorrow evening. Areas near Kodiak City could receive snowfall totals of 9 to 18 inches.

As the low over the Gulf moves farther north, a barrier jet will set up along the north Gulf coast, intensifying the pressure gradient. This will increase winds for Seward and the Valdez area. Thompson Pass will also see stronger winds in this pattern, which has led to a Blizzard Warning being issued for this area starting tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be the driving factor, causing whiteout conditions at times, with only a few inches of new snowfall accumulation.

The low will align just right that snow will develop tonight and continue through Wednesday from Portage Valley through Turnagain Pass. This alignment will allow for a Turnagain Arm wind to set up across the area which will be responsible for bringing ample moisture for another round of snow, which will be moderate to heavy at times, into the area. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for possible blizzard conditions as the snow and wind will increase in intensity during this time. 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts are possible in conjunction with the strongest winds that could gust as high as 45 to 60 mph. Total snow amounts through the duration of the event - tonight through Wednesday night - of 12 to 24 inches are expected.

Warmer temperatures are expected across areas of Southcentral, however, most precipitation looks to remain frozen with the potential for a short switchover to rain for Cordova. The backside of the low sees arctic air wrapping into it which looks to end the warm temperatures as soon as Thursday night.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3). Arctic high pressure persists over northern Alaska, maintaining strong northeast winds and cold, clear conditions over much of the southwest Mainland. A Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay area through Thursday. A low approaching the Gulf Wednesday will bring an increase in cloud cover and an increase in winds, particularly for the interior Bristol Bay/AKPEN area. Expect a slight warm-up from the increased cloud cover and easterly flow, but winds will ramp up in conjunction with the warm up, so hazardous wind chills remain possible. Precipitation from the low will generally be focused on the south side of the Alaska/Aleutian range. That said, as the low drifts into Cook Inlet and occludes late Wednesday, moisture wrapped around it should overrun cold air in place in the Kuskokwim Valley/interior Bristol Bay area. This could bring prolonged light snow to the middle to lower Kuskokwim Valley and the Alaska Range foothills (generally east of Koliganek and Igiugig) late Wednesday into Thursday. Precipitation will diminish Friday as a ridge builds over the Bering, stabilizing conditions.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3). Arctic high pressure persists over northern Alaska, maintaining strong northeast flow and cold air advection over the Bering and Aleutians. This setup, in conjunction with a low in the Gulf, is causing enhanced gap winds through the eastern Aleutians. Gap winds will likely gust to storm force late tonight and Wednesday into Thursday, as general flow backs to NNW and geostrophic winds peak. South of the eastern AKPEN (i.e., from Chignik east), gusts could flirt with hurricane force late tonight, as the Gulf low deepens. Periods of ocean-effect snow will persist over the Bering Sea, Pribilof Islands and Aleutians for the next few days as cold air flows over the warmer waters of the Bering. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for blowing snow along the AKPEN through Wednesday evening, and highest snow accumulations will be on the peaks, but given the expected winds it won't take much snow to limit visibility's in low-lying areas. Ocean-effect snow will continue to impact Unalaska, but temperatures will be a bit warmer than the AKPEN and winds won't be quite as strong thus advisory level conditions are not expected at this time. Meanwhile, high pressure over eastern Siberia maintains a relatively warmer air mass over the western Bering and western Aleutians. Though snow will continue in the central and western Aleutians, significant impacts from blowing snow are unlikely. A strong low will approach the western Aleutians from the southwest Friday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5. Friday through Sunday) Gulf of Alaska: Persistent low pressure is expected to remain in the Gulf through Saturday. While the easterly winds along the northern Gulf coast will taper, strong northwesterly flow will persist through the usual gaps and passes, especially over Kamishak Bay and Wide Bay south of Kodiak Island through Saturday. By Saturday night, a strong front enters the western Gulf. Gales are likely with this front, and storm force winds are possible. Bering Sea and Aleutians: Gusty northerly flow will taper over the eastern Bering by Friday morning. A weak low in the northern Bering may spread some gales in over the Pribilof Islands and northward as it lifts to the north and exits the Bering by Saturday morning. Attention shifts to a strong ~960 mb low moving over the western Aleutians Saturday morning. Gales are expected, though there is increasing confidence in storm force winds with this system. Models have not settled on the track of this low, though it is likely to impact the Bering through early next week.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7. Saturday through Tuesday) The persistent upper level trough that has been in place over the Gulf will eventually shift eastward as an upper level ridge approaches Saturday. There is increasing confidence in a strong area of low pressure entering the Bering/western Aleutians Saturday morning. Models are hinting at a sharp temperature gradient forming over the Bering late Saturday into Sunday, which could potentially fuel the development of several additional areas of low pressure. Depending on if these lows form, and where they track, there remains potential for a pattern change across southern Alaska for early next week as warmer southerly flow advances eastward.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Blizzard Warning 131 171. Blowing Snow Advisory 181. Wind Chill Advisory 155 161. Winter Storm Watch 125. MARINE . Storm Warning 119 120 130 131 138. Gale Warning 127 128 132 136 137 139 150 155 165 170>174 179 180. Heavy Freezing Spray 121 127 130 138 139 141 150 155 165 170>172 179 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . RC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CK SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MM MARINE/LONG TERM . KO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 11 mi58 min 12°F 983.4 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 89 mi58 min 41°F975.3 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK8 mi2.2 hrsNNE 810.00 miA Few Clouds9°F1°F74%985.1 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK12 mi77 minNNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy10°F0°F63%984.1 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK15 mi74 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy5°F1°F83%984.9 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK16 mi77 minNNE 1310.00 miOvercast10°F0°F63%984.1 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK18 mi77 minN 13 G 2310.00 miOvercast13°F1°F59%983.7 hPa
Wasilla, Wasilla Airport, AK23 mi2.2 hrsWSW 610.00 miOvercast4°F0°F80%986.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAED

Wind History from AED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3NE3NE4NE5CalmNE9NE4N9N7NE4N9N12N8N10NE8N9N9
1 day agoN9N10
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2 days agoNE5NE6CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4NE4NE4NE5NE6NE5CalmCalmCalmNE5NE5CalmE5NE4N5

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:04 AM AKST     1.97 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:28 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:58 AM AKST     29.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:12 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:33 PM AKST     5.82 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:58 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:58 PM AKST     27.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:01 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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20.214.68.8423.79.116.523.428.129.528.124.72014.79.66.46.29.515.321.525.927.426

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:13 AM AKST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:28 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:55 AM AKST     29.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:12 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:30 PM AKST     3.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:57 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:58 PM AKST     26.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:01 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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18.512.67.63.80.73.111.518.923.927.629.12722.316.811.97.84.24.310.517.422.525.626.925.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.