Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Knik-Fairview, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday)...

A complex low over the Bering Strait continues to send a series of shortwave troughs through the Bering Sea before rotating up into the Southwest Alaska Mainland. Each of these systems has brought, and will continue to bring, periods of widespread rainfall to portions of the Aleutians, AKPEN, and Southwest Alaska. Plentiful moisture has been funneled up into the region with precipitable water (PWAT) values above the climatological mean. This cool and wet trend will continue through the remainder of the week as the next few shortwaves impact the region.

Rainfall is tapering off over the mainland as a strong shortwave moves eastward. This afternoon will see more widely scattered showers as a result. Wind speeds are also expected to diminish overland through the day and remain on the lighter side through Friday. The next low pressure system is not far away, and is already over the Adak and Atka region. The low will push eastward through the Aleutians today, bringing rain and elevated winds as it travels. By Thursday morning, the low will move into the AKPEN and then into Bristol Bay by the afternoon. Once again, widespread rainfall is expected for the mainland. Rainfall will persist into Friday as the upper level system remains over Southwest Alaska.
For the Bering, a low will drop from Chukotka on Thursday, leading to gusty winds and even more rainfall over the Aleutians Thursday night into Friday. This low is trending stronger than yesterday, so wind speeds and rainfall are having an upward trend in intensity. Looking a bit ahead into the weekend, it is likely that this low will take the same track as the others and drive widespread rainfall into Southwest Alaska.

-PP/JAR

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

The latest model guidance shows strong confidence in a slow- moving, highly amplified upper-level trough consolidating along 165th parallel and lingering across much of Alaska well into next workweek. Smaller-scale details are less certain, especially with disturbances rounding the base of the trough and moving into the Gulf of Alaska, where moderate storm development is possible over the southern Bering Sea and northern Gulf. This pattern supports and extended unsettled stretch with daily rain chance region wide though precipitation will turn more widespread, organized and windier from the Southwest through Prince William Sound and Southcentral Alaska as moisture deepens and shifts northward. A multi-day heavy rainfall threat has been highlighted for those areas next week.

Along the coastal waters, particularly the Gulf of Alaska and Southern Bering Sea, strengthening systems carry the potential for increasing winds and rougher seas. These conditions are likely to create hazardous marine environment for boating, commercial fishing and vessel operations, with heavier seas and gusty winds possible. Overall, the wetter and windier pattern across southern and coastal Alaska will require attention to accumulating rainfall impacts and marine hazards into early next week.

-DD

AVIATION

PANC...Rain showers move out of the area to the north early this morning as southerly flow increases up Cook Inlet. Expect southerly wind gusts to around 25 kts this morning through early afternoon before winds slowly diminish through the rest of the afternoon. Gusts should diminish completely by early this evening.
Ceilings will oscillate between VFR and MVFR this morning through early afternoon before VFR ceilings become predominate through the rest of the TAF period. Another frontal system lifts towards the area by the end of the TAF period late Thursday morning.