Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Knik-Fairview, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:31AMSunset 5:55PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 4:35 AM AKST (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 6:45AMMoonset 12:02PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 419 Am Akst Tue Feb 18 2020
.small craft advisory today...
Today..E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
Tonight..E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
Wed night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knik-Fairview, AK
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location: 61.38, -149.8     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 180143 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 443 PM AKST Mon Feb 17 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. There is a large vertically stacked low centered over the eastern Bering Sea. An associated front stretches from the lower Kuskokwim Valley south across western Kodiak Island into the Pacific. The "bent back" occlusion wraps all the way around the low, curling from the northern Bering, around the Pribilofs then north to Nunivak Island. Strong surface and low level winds associated with this low cover almost all of the Bering and southern Alaska, with the exception Bering the western Bering and Aleutians. An upper level high is over northwest Canada. This puts all of southern Alaska under strong southerly flow aloft, which is bringing plenty of moisture to the area, and a warmer air mass.

MODEL DISCUSSION. The numerical models are in reasonable agreement through Wednesday afternoon. The exception is the NAM, which is much faster and weaker with a low moving north through the Gulf to the Gulf coast Tuesday and Tuesday night. With a very fast and active pattern, the details of the forecast are quite tricky. Therefore the forecast confidence is a little below normal today.

AVIATION. PANC . LLWS is expected this evening with rather strong winds aloft. Gusty southeast winds are expected to develop early this evening, then become south. Winds will diminish late Tuesday morning. VFR conditions will persist into Tuesday morning. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected late Tuesday morning into the evening in snow.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A challenging forecast involving gusty winds and precipitation tonight through Wednesday as two fronts move through the region.

Snow and rain will continue to develop this evening as a weak boundary remains stalled along the Gulf coast. Light snow along the western areas of the Susitna Valley will also be ongoing as moisture along low level southeasterly flow over runs a cold pool along the base of the Alaska Range. The next impactful front moves across the southern Gulf, bringing gusty winds and rain to Kodiak Island this evening. Gusty winds will accompany the front peaking during the early morning hours on Tuesday. The high wind warning issued during the morning packing for Turnagain Arm and Higher Elevations was updated late this morning to start sooner as observations were already reporting speeds greater than 75 mph at McHugh Creek and Bird Point.

The advancing front spreads precipitation across the Kenai to Prince William Sound overnight and then continues north through Anchorage, Susitna and Matanuska Valleys by Tuesday early morning. Precipitation will continue through Tuesday night as two upper level storm systems interact. Precipitation type remains the biggest challenge on Tuesday as surface temperatures quickly climb above freezing along the frontal boundary, meanwhile temperatures aloft remain cool enough to support snow. There is high uncertainty on snow amounts as models are struggling to handle this highly active pattern. Updates were made today to cool temperature trends Tuesday afternoon and expand snow coverage. The highest snow amounts are expected along higher elevations just inland from the coast. Issued new Winter Weather Advisories for the Western Kenai, Matanuska Valley and Anchorage area and updated the Susitna Valley advisory to begin this afternoon.

The front pulls across the Copper River Basin on Wednesday with the upper level jet shifting its nose eastward. The second upper low that quickly organizes over the Gulf Tuesday night, weakens into an open wave as is moves inland. Gusty gale force winds were extended across the northern Gulf Tuesday night. Widespread snow is expected across much of Southcentral Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night as the low level jet pumps subtropical moisture toward the interior. Forecast details on snow amounts were adjusted to reflect higher amounts; however,model uncertainty remains high through midweek.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

An occluded low centered roughly 75 miles south of Nunivak Island continues to be the focus in the short term. Blizzard conditions have started returning to the Kuskokwim Delta coast, with Chevak back down to a quarter mile visibility in heavy snow and gusty winds. While there's been a lull in snow today, conditions will likely continue to deteriorate tonight as the low steers eastward and pushes the cold second wrap toward the coast. Precipitation has started to change back over to snow in the Bristol Bay area. As for snow amounts, expect up to three inches from mow through tomorrow afternoon, mainly from Dillingham north. Of course, much more is expected in upslope flow in the Kilbuck and Ahklun Mountains. The low will continue to weaken and track northeastward toward the Yukon Delta tonight into Tuesday. This setup will continue to set the stage for gusty southeast winds from Kamishak Bay to the Nushagak Hills this evening. Gusts to 47 mph have already been observed in Iliamna today. Tuesday, the trailing cold air mass will push inland, bringing a distinct cool down over most of the Southwest Mainland Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation will greatly diminish Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. That said, there will probably be scattered "ocean effect" showers over the mainland into Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, attention turns to a low expected to traverse the Aleutians during the day Wednesday. Since this low is currently in its infancy as a wave off the coast of Japan, there's a bit of uncertainty in its progression. But, as it stands now expect a transition to south flow aloft with wetter, windier weather at the surface. Stay tuned for updates.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

An occluded low between the Pribilof Islands and Nunivak Island will continue to track towards the coast and inland tonight. Gales over the Bering and eastern Aleutians/AKPEN will diminish tonight, though widespread areas of small craft advisory level winds/seas will persist through Tuesday. Expect broad cyclonic flow over the Bering Tuesday, and ocean-effect snow showers are likely over the Bering Sea and Pribilof Islands into the Aleutians . mainly the central Aleutians and east. Attention quickly turns to a gale force low expected to reach the western Aleutians Tuesday night. Expect another round of active weather across the Aleutians and areas of gales over the Aleutians and southern Bering, with an embedded swath of storm force winds Wednesday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Thu through Sat). Some Gales are expected on Thursday and Thursday night to the south of the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as a system moves east into the Gulf. Gale to near storm force winds are expected along the north Gulf coast on Thursday associated with this same system. On Friday night and Saturday, Gale force west to northwest winds are expected over the Gulf and south of the Alaska Peninsula. A storm system moving into the western and central Aleutians on Saturday should produce gale force winds.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Fri through Mon). On Friday morning the pattern will consist of an upper level trough over southwest Alaska extending southeastward into the Gulf of Alaska. The trough will very slowly slide northeast across southern Alaska through Sunday as the main upper low retreats northward. A weak ridge will then build over southern Alaska Sunday night, sliding eastward on Monday. An upper level low just south of the western Aleutians on Saturday will move eastward through Sunday, possibly moving north into the central Aleutians on Monday. The exact path and timing of this feature is somewhat uncertain at this time.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . WSW 101 111 121 131 145 155. NPW 101 NONE. MARINE . Storm 119 165 170. Gales 125 128-132 150 155 160 171-173 178-180 185 351 351 412-414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BL SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . KH SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MM MARINE/LONG TERM . BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 11 mi54 min SSW 11 G 17 40°F 1001 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 89 mi54 min 38°F1003.1 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK8 mi2.7 hrsSSE 14 G 2710.00 miA Few Clouds45°F25°F46%999.4 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK12 mi2.7 hrsSSE 14 G 2410.00 miOvercast45°F25°F46%1000.1 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK15 mi2.7 hrsE 9 G 1410.00 miFair45°F27°F49%1001.2 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK16 mi2.7 hrsSSE 15 G 2210.00 miFair45°F26°F48%1000.1 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK18 mi2.7 hrsSSE 20 G 3110.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy43°F28°F56%999.9 hPa
Wasilla, Wasilla Airport, AK23 mi2.7 hrsE 12 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F28°F62%1001.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAED

Wind History from AED (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE5N3N5CalmCalmCalmE3NE5CalmCalmN8CalmNE5--N4CalmCalmN3CalmNE5NE4NE6N7NE8
2 days ago----N6N5N3CalmCalmN4CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Tue -- 03:07 AM AKST     23.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:04 AM AKST     9.91 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:04 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:46 PM AKST     26.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:54 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:46 PM AKST     3.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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16.620.723.123.923.421.718.714.911.59.911.214.819.423.425.626.12522.618.813.78.54.73.86.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.