Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Knik-Fairview, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

Active weather continues for Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea, and Aleutian Islands. Special Weather Statements remain in effect for the Southern Alaska Peninsula through tonight for strong winds, and for the Kuskokwim Delta coast through Saturday for potential coastal flooding and erosion. Please view those products for more information.

The weather will gradually settle down through tomorrow as the strong low currently near the Pribilof Islands weakens and exits northwards. Weaker storms do move along the Aleutian Islands and Alaska Peninsula through Monday afternoon, bringing winds to about 25 to 30 kt over marine areas, as well as light rain and rain showers. However, the bigger story will likely be over interior Southwest Alaska, where temperatures could climb into the mid to high 70s as we head into early next week. Abundant sunshine could also lead to the potential for thunderstorms to develop in the interior, so stay tuned as we continue to refine the forecast.

-KC

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Models are in fairly good agreement with the synoptic setup through midweek next week with the lowest confidence being toward the low center over the Bering Sea. High pressure will generally remain across the mainland of the state. Meanwhile, a closed low will linger over the Bering Sea and another in the Gulf of Alaska.
Active weather will be mostly confined over the West with a strong North Pacific low and front moving over the Central Aleutians Thursday into Friday. A North Pacific low drifting east along the Aleutians towards the Gulf will merge with the main Gulf low by late Monday. The two main upper lows over the Alaska waters may phase, keeping unsettled weather across much of the Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, Aleutians, and the Alaska Peninsula.
Strong high pressure will block any significant movement in the weather pattern for most of the next week, but embedded shortwave troughs may allow for smaller, meandering features to resolve with rainfall and breeziness. Over the mainland, easterly waves emanating from the Gulf low could mean afternoon showers or thunderstorm development. Toward midweek, the ridge appears to build further, suppressing both lows, and leaving warmer and drier conditions more likely for most of Alaska. While confidence is high with the overall pattern, confidence is low for the weather associated with finer features near coastal communities due to slight variations in low centers.

-VR/AM




AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail. A southerly wind from Turnagain Arm is expected to develop later this afternoon. Gusts are expected to be around 20 knots or less.