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FXUS61 KCAR 051606 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1206 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will slowly exit over the Maritimes today. A cold front approaches Sunday night, then crosses the area Monday and Monday evening. Weak high pressure builds in late Monday night through Tuesday night. A frontal boundary stalls out to the south with waves of low pressure riding along it Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1205PM Update...No major changes to the forecast for this update.

Previous Discussion...
Today a 500mb dirty ridge continues to push east into the Maritimes as Maine is in return flow with surface high pressure over eastern Nova Scotia. Light southerly winds gradually increase today with the approaching front from the west. Today will be a mostly cloudy day but there will be some sunny breaks.
Temperatures generally in the upper 50s to low 60s with the warm spots across The County. Onshore winds means the cool spots will be the Downeast coast in the low 50s for MDI, and areas south of Route 1. Cannot rule out upper 40s for the Islands and right at the shoreline. By late afternoon in response to increased surface lift ahead of the front we will see showers developing across western zones especially in Piscataquis, N.
Somerset and far Western Aroostook counties.

Tonight, a weak northern stream shortwave at 500mb crosses the area. This combined with moderate isentropic lift will generate a period of light rain tonight across the area along and ahead of the cold front and associated shortwave energy. Consensus of the hi-res CAMs seem to be handling the timing well and kept timing close to the hi-res guidance. Expecting the transit to be NW to SE across the CWA during the night hours. Although it will be stratiform precip not expecting much in the way of accumulations with mostly 0.1-0.2 inch expected. Rain will start to taper to scattered showers by daybreak. Temperatures will fall back into the low to mid 40s tonight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Most rn/shwr activity ovr our FA will move E of the FA by late Mon Morn as a weak warm occlusion moves E of the FA ovr the Can Maritimes. The tmg of a of a fairly strong secondary cold front and associated s/wv from Hudson Bay now appears to be well after 00z Tue, too late after diurnal max htg for any sig additional shwrs and isold tstms. The warmest air in the llvls will arrive durg by Mon Aftn allowing temps to get well into the 60s, perhaps even near 70 ovr inland low trrn lctns.

Any isold shwrs will move E of the by mid Mon Eve, with the rest of Mon Ngt and Tue looking to be fair, breezy and cooler behind a secondary cold front, with some llvl cold advcn SC cld cvr likely ovr Nrn/Ern areas late Tue Morn into Aftn. Under Can sfc high pres, Tue Ngt looks to be fair with dmnshg winds and cool spcly Nrn areas with good radiational cooling.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
During the long term, our FA will be straddling two wx regimes due to weak N-S blocking; a dry cool regime to the N associated with sfc high pres and a wetter regime to our S associated with weak low pres systems movg alg a semi-stationary frontal system S of our Rgn.

Subsequently, Wed will start ptly cldy ovr the Rgn, then turn msly cldy from the W as another weakening occluded sfc low and s/wv alf system apchs from the Midwest. Lgt shwrs from this system will msly impact Srn/Wrn ptns of the FA Wed Ngt with msly less than a tenth of an inch of rnfl. Longer range models are in better agreement that there will be a break in shwrs and cld cvr for most of Thu.

Otherwise, longer range models cont to be not in good agreement on tmg of rnfl or rnfl amts with followup s/wvs from the WSW Thu Ngt thru Sat. The result is a long mention of chc shwrs thru the late week. Subsequently max PoPs were kept in the high chc range thru Fri. Longer range models are in a little more agreement on possible more sig rnfl this weekend, currently to far out in the fcst to go with likely PoPs attm. Temps will be near normal for Wed thru Thu, then trending toward slightly below avg temps by the weekend depending on rnfl potential.

AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: Northern Terms...Generally MVFR this AM, brief VFR this afternoon before returning to MVFR this evening then IFR tonight. -RA expected after 00z across the sites. Winds S-SSE 5-15kt today with gusts up to 25kt this afternoon. Winds shift S-SW tonight generally 5-10kt. -RA expected all night with vsby reduction.

Southern Terms...MVFR this AM, brief period of low end VFR this afternoon then going back to MVFR then IFR tonight. Cannot rule out LIFR late tonight at BHB. Light and variable winds this AM becoming S-SSE 5-15kt with gusts up to 20kt shifting S-SSW tonight 5-15kt.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mon...all TAF sites MVFR clgs becmg low VFR clgs to unlmtd VFR by Aftn. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in shwrs.
Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg W late in the day.

Mon Ngt - Tue...all TAF sites VFR xcpt low VFR clgs Nrn TAF sites late Tue Morn til mid Aftn. Lgt to mdt NW winds.

Tue Ngt - Wed Ngt...all TAF sites VFR, lowering to low VFR clgs late Wed Aftn and Wed Ngt with lgt shwrs KHUL - KBHB. Lgt winds.

Thu...all TAF sites VFR clgs to unlmtd VFR with lgt winds.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions through tonight.
Winds generally SE this morning shifting S today and then SSW tonight. Winds less than 20kt through tonight but gusts may approach 20kt by overnight tonight. Seas generally 1-2ft today becoming 2-3ft tonight. Rain develops this evening through the night reducing vsby at times to 3nm or less. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) generally 42-45F from the Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay. The coldest SSTs are across the Eastern Coastal Waters from Schoodic Ridge to Jones Ground east to the Hague Line.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated at this tm ovr these ptns of the fcst. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs msly composed of two spectral groups; a shorter 3 to 6 sec and a longer 10 to 12 sec pd swell.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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