Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 3:59 AM   Moonset 3:55 PM

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LSZ244 /o.con.kmqt.ma.w.0056.000000t0000z-231005t2115z/ 458 Pm Edt Thu Oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 515 pm edt - .
for the following areas - . Eagle river to manitou island mi - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Lake superior from upper entrance to portage canal to manitou island mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border - . Manitou island to point isabelle mi - .
at 457 pm edt, a severe Thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located near brockway mountain, or 28 nm northwest of stannard rock, moving northeast at 40 knots.
hazard - .waterspouts, wind gusts 34 knots or greater, and small hail.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
locations impacted include - . Manitou island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.
Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat - .lon 4763 8760 4743 8747 4732 8786 4749 8801 4766 8762 time - .mot - .loc 2057z 241deg 40kt 4745 8781
waterspout - .possible hail - .<.75in wind - .>34kts

FXUS63 KMQT 041913 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 313 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

-Rain overspreading the UP from west to east this afternoon/evening as a low pressure system moves through the area.
-The UP remains under the preferred path for low pressure systems, with multiple notable features passing through the next week.
-In between systems, dry conditions will be expected, though mostly low winds and antecedent rainfall should broadly limit fire concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

A shortwave trough moving through the Northern and Central Plains as noted on water vapor imagery will be propelling a cold front across Upper Mi this afternoon and evening, spreading showers from west to east across the fcst area. The leading edge of showers is into southern Houghton and western Iron counties as noted on the latest radar imagery as will continue to move through central Upper Mi from 20-00z and then into the eastern U.P. counties 00-03Z before exiting the eastern cwa by 09Z. Ridging and subsidence behind the shortwave and associated cold front will support drier conditions behind the front tonight and maybe some partial clearing over portions of the western U.P. later tonight. The moist low levels from the showers along with the prospect of partial clearing however could also support the development of stratus/patchy fog behind the front. Min temps tonight will generally range from the upper 30s west to the lower 40s central and east.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 436 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Starting tonight, a broad trough will expand over the Upper Midwest and central Canada with a ridge over the eastern U.S. coast and a closed low over the western U.S. coast. A shortwave riding the middle trough will be progressing eastward over the U.P. with another shortwave not long behind it over Manitoba. The associated cold front finish progressing east across the U.P. by Sunday morning, bringing a line of showers eastward as well as a brief period of northeast gusts to 20-25 mph; a few rumbles of thunder are possible mainly earlier in the period. Lows overnight are expected in the mid 30s to mid 40s, warmest east where the cloud cover is expected to hold on the longest.

The second shortwave passes just north of Lake Superior on Sunday, but no precip is expected as sfc high pressure builds in over the Upper Great Lakes. This should see cloud cover diminish, light winds, and highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s; warmest south central.
Mixing increasing in the afternoon, stronger over the interior west, will bring RHs down around 40% in the east/Keweenaw with near 30-35% in the interior west. No fire weather concerns are expected at this time. With mid level ridging moving east over the Great Lakes and high pressure shifting to expand over the entire basin, the quiet weather continues with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Meanwhile, the closed low will have made it onshore and moved east over the Rockies, beginning to open up into a trough and take on a negative tilt.

By Monday morning, the trough will be situated just over the lee side of the Rockies. High pressure means another dry day with better mixing up to ~850 mb. Stronger winds mixing down from aloft are not going to be an issue, but lower dew points will be. Minimum RHs are expected around 30-35% in the afternoon/evening hours. With highs in the upper 50s to low 70s, cooler by the lakeshores, we flirt with borderline elevated fire weather conditions. Will want to monitor these conditions in future forecast packages. The trough is expected to pivot northeast over the Plains through Monday night supporting sfc low cyclogenesis, but the U.P. stays dry yet. Monday night will be warmer than the previous night with temps only settling into the 40s, warmer in the west as clouds increase ahead of the next system.

Chances for showers increase in the far west on Tuesday with increasing q-vector convergence, but likely will hold off until late morning/early afternoon when the trough begins to develop back into a closed low over the northern Plains. PVA over our region increases at this point into Wednesday morning as a shortwave cycles around the low, eventually passing northeast over the Upper Great Lakes. An approaching left exit region of the upper level jet also looks to support additional cyclogenesis over the Central Plains Tuesday night. This second sfc low then lifts northeast on Tuesday, crossing northeast over the Great Lakes Tuesday night resulting in an uptick in PoPs Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the stronger sfc low associated with the mid level low will spin over the Northern Plains. With the given spread in the guidance, opted to leave the NBM PoPs Tuesday onward. There is a chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday, but confidence remains low at this point given the spotty instability noted in the guidance; best chances are on Tuesday when the mid level lapse rates and bulk shear are higher.

Slight chances for showers gradually diminish through the end of the work week as we begin to see a pattern shift. Longer range ensemble guidance hints at positive 500 mb height anomalies over the western U.S. with negative height anomalies moving toward the east coast toward the latter part of May. This means less moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to support precip chances and cooler northwest flow over the Great Lakes. The drier trend is captured well by CPC precip outlooks out to 3-4 weeks with a cooler pattern more within the next 8-14 days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions will slowly deteriorate to low-end MVFR and possible IFR starting mid to late this afternoon at IWD and toward this evening (22Z-00Z) at SAW and CMX as rain overspreads Upper Michigan from west to east. Expect improvement back to VFR late this evening/overnight as drying and clearing occurs in the wake of a cold front.

MARINE
Issued at 436 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Southwest winds this morning become northwest mid morning over the west half of Lake Superior as a weak low pressure lifts northeast into the region. Winds across the rest of the lake turn northeast behind a cold front this evening as the low lifts northeast into northern Ontario. The eastern portions of Lake Superior could briefly see some northwest wind gusts up to 25 kt tonight into Sunday morning. As high pressure settles over the lake Sunday and Monday, winds will be below 20 kt until Monday afternoon. A strong low pressure system over the Northern Great Plains will cause gusty northeasterly winds to funnel towards Duluth Harbor to around 20-25 kts monday afternoon into Monday night. Meanwhile, a second weaker low pressure develops over the Central Plains, lifting northeast toward the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. The track and timing of this secondary low is still not totally solid, but east winds to 20-30 kts are likely Tuesday into Tuesday evening as it moves through the Great Lakes Basin. Probability of Gales remains low at this time. (<20% chance of winds exceeding 34 kts). Winds look to hold around 15-25 kts through the rest of the work week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ250- 251.

Lake Michigan...
None.

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Coral Harbour
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Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     1.35 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 04:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 04:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:55 AM EDT     2.83 meters High Tide
Sat -- 04:15 PM EDT     1.11 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 04:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:29 PM EDT     3.04 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Coral Harbour, Southampton Island, Nunavut, Tide feet

Coral Harbour
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:59 AM EDT     1.14 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 04:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 04:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:38 AM EDT     3.04 meters High Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:29 PM EDT     0.72 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 10:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:14 PM EDT     3.19 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Coral Harbour, Southampton Island, Nunavut (2), Tide feet

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