Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Copper Harbor, MI

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Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday August 22, 2019 2:08 PM EDT (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 9:54PMMoonset 1:32PM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Copper Harbor, MI
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location: 63.03, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 221726
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
126 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 417 am edt Thu aug 22 2019

A brief taste of fall has arrived...

chilly predawn temperatures were observed inland from lake superior,
as lows dropped into the 40s for many locations. Closer to the big
lake, northerly flow coming onshore kept lows in the 50s and
lower 60s for most locations. Satellite trends this morning show mid-
level clouds spreading to the southeast as another shortwave digs
south towards the region. However, much of the upper peninsula
remained cloud-free this morning, outside of the west.

Today will be cooler compared to yesterday, with predominately
northerly wind across the area. Clouds currently off to our north
and west will gradually work into the area, and increase in
coverage as diurnal heat and cold air aloft favor the development of
stratocu later today. Cloud cover looks more widespread across the
west half of upper michigan, where diurnal heating will allow for
local destabilization within the boundary layer. The destabilization
across the west and central this afternoon does look to favor the
development of diurnally driven rain showers. Confidence isn't high
in regards to how widespread these rain showers will get, but given
the cold air aloft and a narrow pocket of unstable air towards the
top of the boundary layer, certainly looks like a day for convective
rain showers. Out east, northerly flow off of lake superior
funneling down into lake michigan should keep conditions
more stable, with less clouds. These stable conditions will inhibit
the development of afternoon showers. However, out east, winds off
of lake superior, and remnant stronger winds aloft will make for
gustier winds at times late this morning and afternoon. The
lingering dry conditions across the area, but cooler temperature are
expected to keep rhs in the 40-55% range, locally driest across the
southern parts of upper michigan across the south central and east,
where downsloping northerly winds help dry things out further.

Tonight, high pressure starts to drop south into the western parts
of upper michigan. This increased subsidence and locally veering of
the winds across the interior parts of upper michigan does look like
it will favor clearing skies. Given the already dry air mass
expected to be in place, with ample radiational cooling and
decoupling of the nocturnal boundary layer, overnight lows look to
tank into the low 30s to around 40 inland from the great lakes. The
areas across the interior west certainly look to be the cold spots
Friday morning, meaning we could see some early-season frost
develop. Using the model certainty tool this morning, it appears
that the current forecast lows fall right around the 25th
percentile, so towards the lower end of the distribution among the
model guidance. That being said, will let the day shift re-evaluate
later today as to whether or not a frost advisory will be needed.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 443 am edt Thu aug 22 2019
over the last 24hrs, no major changes have appeared in medium range
guidance ensembles with respect to the pattern thru the weekend and
next week. The next couple of days will be a preview of fall as a
trof swings thru the great lakes in response to a sharp ridge
extending from S central canada across hudson bay. Then, as troffing
pushes across western canada thru the weekend, the ridge will shift
across the great lakes region Sat sun, resulting in temps rising
back to normal to a little above normal. During next week, mean
troffing will shift from western canada to the great lakes region as
a ridge builds over western N america. This progression of the
pattern should result in above normal temps early next week falling
back to mostly blo normal mid and late week into labor day weekend.

Will likely see a period of fall-like cool weather again late next
week as the mean trof reaches the great lakes. Although it's over a
week out, early indications suggest cool weather may hold on for
much, if not all, of the labor day weekend. As for pcpn, pattern for
the next several days will not be favorable for any meaningful pcpn.

Some sprinkles isold -shra are expected today under thermal trof.

Could see a repeat on fri, though with less coverage. Dry weather
will then prevail Sat Sun as sharp ridging moves across the western
great lakes. As the western canada trof gradually shifts E and
amplifies into the N central conus, a series of shortwaves will be
tracking off the N pacific and into thru the trof. It's likely that
it won't be until Sun night Mon that one of those shortwaves will
progress far enough downstream to bring the next chc of shra to the
fcst area. As the mean trof approaches and then reaches the great
lakes, expect additional opportunities for shra thru the mid and
late week period, but as was the case 24hrs ago, models don't
suggest any significant or persistent pcpn episodes.

Beginning fri, sfc high pres ridge will be drifting over the area
with sfc high pres center likely developing over northern lake
superior during the aftn. With 850mb thermal trof still over the
area, at least thru the morning, will likely see quite a bit of
stratocu development in the morning. These clouds will then probably
erode from the W and N during the aftn. Not out of the question that
there could be some sprinkles, but with low-level flow more
anticyclonic and a lowering subsidence inversion, potential seems
quite low. Thus, fcst will have no mention of pcpn. Will be another
cool day with highs in the 60s f. Temps may reach 70f in a few spots
s central into far western upper mi.

Sfc high pres will only slowly drift E Fri night, with ridging
likely lingering across central and eastern upper mi thru the night.

With precipitable water down around 0.5 inches E and 0.4 inches
central, roughly 50pct of normal, expect an excellent radiational
cooling night. Lowered min temps to the low end of avbl guidance,
generally mid upper 30s in the interior. Traditional cold spots
could very well end up blo freezing. So, expect some frost across
the interior central and e.

Recent days strong model trends for a slower progression of both the
mid-level trof from western canada and the sharp ridging over the
great lakes region has come to an end. Over the last 24hrs, models
have largely stabilized on the expected pattern progression. So, at
this point, the weekend still looks to be dry and warmer. High temps
sat Sun will return to the 70s under mostly sunny skies, and with
dwpts generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s f, it will be a pleasant
late summer weekend for upper mi. There will be some increase in
clouds during the day sun. Sun will also turn a bit breezy under
tightening pres gradient btwn high pres to the E and cold front
moving across the plains.

Progression of shortwaves thru the western trof will probably shift
far enough E to push a cold front toward upper mi Mon with passage
mon night. Thus, chc of of shra maybe thunder will return from W to
e Sun night mon. Looks like a decent potential of a widespread
rainfall as trof begins to take on a bit of a negative tilt as it
arrives. In addition, if some of the guidance over the last 24hrs is
correct in a central plains shortwave being captured and forced ne
by the approaching trof, pcpn would get an additional boost. Then,
with the mean trof shifting to the great lakes during the remainder
of the week, there should be additional opportunities for some pcpn,
but right now, medium range guidance does not suggest anything
significant or persistent.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 125 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
onshore flow continues to bring clouds to all TAF sites, but
ceilings have remained well withinVFR range. A few lingering light
rain showers may affect ksaw this afternoon but that threat should
end after 19z. North winds will relax and become variable overnight.

A few models continue to point towards the potential for fog
development tonight, which would be most likely at kiwd but possible
at ksaw as well. With relatively dry air remaining in place aloft,
this is not a slam dunk but worth mentioning in the TAF given fog
development occurred the last two nights at kiwd. Cloud development
will return tomorrow morning at ksaw under conditions similar to
today, and another brief shower will be possible there. At this
time, it appears ceiling heights would remainVFR but could approach
MVFR thresholds.

Marine (for the 4 am lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 417 am edt Thu aug 22 2019
northerly winds between 10 and 20 knots are expected today. The
strongest winds are expected to be across the south half of the lake
near the shorelines during the day, especially with some funneling
into the duluth harbor and whitefish bay in the afternoon. High
pressure then takes over for the end of the week into the first
half of the weekend, reducing winds to speeds below 15 knots.

Towards the end of the weekend, high pressure moves east of the
region, and southerly flow will start to ramp up across the lake,
with winds 15 to 20 knots Saturday night through Monday. Late in the
day Monday through Monday night, south winds over the east half of
the lake could gust upwards of 30 knots ahead of an approaching
front from the west.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Ritzman
long term... Rolfson
aviation... Kcw
marine... Ritzman


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Tide / Current Tables for Coral Harbour, Southampton Island, Nunavut
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Coral Harbour
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Thu -- 04:38 AM EDT     2.95 meters High Tide
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:25 AM EDT     1.06 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:05 PM EDT     2.96 meters High Tide
Thu -- 09:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:46 PM EDT     1.17 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.522.62.92.92.82.62.21.71.31.11.11.41.82.42.832.92.72.421.51.2

Tide / Current Tables for Coral Harbour, Southampton Island, Nunavut (2)
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Coral Harbour
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Thu -- 05:21 AM EDT     2.76 meters High Tide
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:03 PM EDT     1.20 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:43 PM EDT     2.83 meters High Tide
Thu -- 09:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.31.72.12.52.72.72.52.21.91.61.31.21.31.72.12.52.82.82.72.421.71.4

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Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.