Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Copper Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 4:22PM Thursday December 12, 2019 1:09 AM EST (06:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:24PMMoonset 10:19AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Copper Harbor, MI
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location: 63.03, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 120525 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1225 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EST WED DEC 11 2019

The upper level pattern continues to be defined by upper-level troughing over the Upper Great Lakes evident in water vapor satellite imagery. At the surface, weak troughing persists over eastern Lake Superior, though wind obs between Grand Marais and Newberry show it has pushed onshore. Therefore, lake-effect snow has transitioned back into more typical WNW flow bands. As that high pressure nudges in closer, winds over Lake Superior turn W and push the remaining LES offshore from Grand Marais to Crisp Point. Meanwhile over the Keweenaw, a longer fetch W flow LES band is expected to briefly redevelop this evening, thus keeping lake-effect snow going through the evening around Houghton. This band will finally push offshore of the Keweenaw by early Thursday morning. Given that additional amounts are only expected to be about 1-3" this evening, opted not to extend the advisory for Houghton County.

It's another cold night tonight to start, but not as cold as last night and nowhere near as breezy. Given that it'll be clear and winds will be going very light, went with the 25th percentile for low temps away from the areas with LES clouds, assuming a rapid plummet tonight before cloud cover increases from west to east ahead of the next system and temps rise after about midnight. Therefore, went with a non-diurnal temperature curve tonight. Wind chills may fall to as low as -20 over the interior briefly this evening, but will become negligible by midnight with the calming winds and slowly warming temps.

The next weather maker starts with a short wave currently digging southward from the Canadian Rockies into Montana per water vapor satellite. As this wave rides along the mid-level thermal gradient, a weak surface cyclone will spin up over Nebraska by tomorrow morning and track towards Wisconsin by tomorrow night. 850 mb flow is modeled to be strongly diffluent as the 850 mb low closes off and deepens slightly over northern Wisconsin. This leads to an impressive fgen band streaking from west to east across the WI/MI border and then northern Lake Michigan. The fact that strong fgen bands with strong WAA often overperform was one of multiple factors that justified the Winter Storm Warning now in effect for the southern tier counties. Another factor is that the trend has continuously been up in snow amounts over the past couple of days. Yet another factor is that the air aloft will be cold enough for lake enhancement off of Lake Michigan into Menominee, Delta, and southern Schoolcraft counties. Any of these factors could end up leading to an extra boost in snow amounts above what's currently in the grids.

For this forecast, went with the multi-model median for QPF area-wide with then an increase in QPF over the warning area by a few hundredths towards the hi-res guidance but not all the way. For SLRs, started the period with the NAM Cobb which gives 20:1 when there is deep saturated lift in the DGZ, then transitioned to a multi-model, multi-method blend by Thursday afternoon which brings SLRs down closer to 15:1 as the lower levels warm and thus the DGZ thins and rises. Coupled with the QPF, this results in 6-8" across the warning area and generally 3-6" in the advisory area. Winds will be light enough that blowing snow should not be an issue except for a few patches along the Garden Peninsula. As the low-level flow turns N behind the low late Thursday, the air aloft looks cold enough to support lingering light lake-effect snow showers into the N wind snow belts with only very little additional accumulation expected.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM EST WED DEC 11 2019

Upper level pattern will begin with near zonal flow aloft, with embedded shortwaves moving through late Thursday and again late Friday into Saturday. The flow becomes more amplified later in the weekend with a longwave trough digging south through the Great Lakes and into the central Appalachians. Lake effect snow showers look to return following the shortwave's exit late Saturday and Sunday. Guidance suggests another longwave trough digging south into the central Plains early next week with a surface low coming out of the southern Plains. The GFS has this skirting the region while the CA and EC keep it further south, so its something to watch.

Overnight Thursday, the outgoing shortwave will continue to bring snow showers, particiarly to the south and east were the strongest isentropic forcing persists. As drier air and some warmer air sets in aloft, combined with the lingering weak isentropic lift and low level moisture, some areas of freezing drizzle may form across the region. Overnight lows could drop as low as 5F above zero in the traditional colder spots in the interior west/central while the coastal regions and east will stay in the teenst t0 low 20s. Through the day Friday, a break in the freezing drizzle in the late morning to early afternoon will give way to the deepening of moisture and better lift associated with the next shortwave. Before the column saturates completely, expect some periods of freezing drizzle in the afternoon and early evening before it transitions over to light snow. Highs Friday will hover around the freezing mark out east but stay in the 20s in the west.

I'm most uncertain about Saturday into Sunday, as models are differing on the shortwave's atmospheric interaction. Q vector 850- 500mb divergence suggests midlevel convergence, enough for me to keep a chance of snow in the forecast. However, midlevel drying looks to confine the moisture to low levels, and with low inversion heights, anything that falls should be light. An exception at the moment looks to be potential lake enhancement over the far east.

Monday into Tuesday, models suggest a surface low will develop in the base of the upper level trough over the central Mississippi Valley. They're consistent with the general NE progression of the storm, but the exact placement varies. GFS brings the storm further north and a bit faster than the EC and CA. Something to watch, especially if EC and CA trend a little further north.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1225 AM EST THU DEC 12 2019

IWD and SAW remain clear and look to stay VFR until early 10-12Z Thu. Conditions will deteriorate into IFR quickly from west to east Thu morning with the arrival of widespread light to moderate snow. Have IFR to LIFR vis at both these sites, with lowest vis at SAW during the late morning into afternoon hours when the sfc low tracks nearby.

CMX has improved to MVFR with diminishing snow and wind late this evening and expect a brief period of VFR conditions late tonight before the next wave of system snow moves in Thu morning (mainly after 12Z) knocking vis back down into IFR.

MARINE. (For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 408 PM EST WED DEC 11 2019

WNW gales continue into this evening over eastern Lake Superior. With Stannard Rock and Grand Marais both still reporting gales, extended the Gale Warning until 10 pm EST tonight for the eastern two zones since gale gusts will probably continue for several hours more. The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning will be allowed to expire this evening, but moderate freezing spray will persist across the lake into early Thursday morning. Winds become SW, then S, then E on Thursday as a weak area of low pressure scoots by to the south of the lake, but stay mostly below 20 kts. Next period of winds 25-30 kts looks to be Saturday with the highest winds east as cold air returns under NW flow. NW winds become W Monday but decrease back to around 20 kts. More freezing spray is expected with the cold air Sunday and again next week, but right now it is not expected to reach warning-criteria.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Upper Michigan . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ005>007-085.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ this afternoon for MIZ002-004-009-084.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ early this morning to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for MIZ010>014.

Lake Superior . None. Lake Michigan . None.

SHORT TERM . RJC LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . Voss MARINE . RJC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Coral Harbour, Southampton Island, Nunavut
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Coral Harbour
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Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:30 AM EST     0.99 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 10:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:36 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:47 AM EST     3.28 meters High Tide
Thu -- 02:35 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 03:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:52 PM EST     0.84 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.132.72.31.71.2111.31.92.73.23.33.12.92.41.81.20.90.811.52.32.9

Tide / Current Tables for Coral Harbour, Southampton Island, Nunavut (2)
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Coral Harbour
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Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:28 AM EST     0.96 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 10:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:36 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:05 PM EST     3.47 meters High Tide
Thu -- 02:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 03:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:56 PM EST     0.44 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.92.52.11.71.2111.422.73.23.53.32.92.41.71.10.60.40.71.21.92.6

Weather Map
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Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.