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LSZ244 /o.con.kmqt.ma.w.0056.000000t0000z-231005t2115z/ 458 Pm Edt Thu Oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 515 pm edt...
for the following areas... Eagle river to manitou island mi... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Lake superior from upper entrance to portage canal to manitou island mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border... Manitou island to point isabelle mi...
at 457 pm edt, a severe Thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located near brockway mountain, or 28 nm northwest of stannard rock, moving northeast at 40 knots.
hazard...waterspouts, wind gusts 34 knots or greater, and small hail.
source...radar indicated.
impact...waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
locations impacted include... Manitou island.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.
Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat...lon 4763 8760 4743 8747 4732 8786 4749 8801 4766 8762 time...mot...loc 2057z 241deg 40kt 4745 8781
waterspout...possible hail...<.75in wind...>34kts

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 291102 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 602 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 158 AM EST WED NOV 29 2023

Key Messages: -Light synoptic snowfall is ending from west to east across the U.P.
early this morning.
-Moderate to locally heavy snowfall rates (1/2" to 1"/hr) are projected over Schoolcraft County until 5 AM EST today.
-Warmer today! Highs in the mid 30s to around 40 near the Great Lakes.
-Light lake-effect snow over the Keweenaw and east near the lakeshore behind the Clipper today.

With the Clipper low moving through Lake Superior earlier this morning, satellite and radar imagery shows synoptic snowfall having already ended over the interior west. Meanwhile, some lake- enhancement off of Lake MI could be bringing some moderate to locally heavy snowfall rates over Schoolcraft County early this morning for the next few hours, with the 00z HRRR mean snowfall rates suggesting that rates as high as 1 inch per hour are possible for an hour or two before the morning commute today. However, given that these stronger snowfall rates are being seen only before 5 AM EST today, and snowfall totals from this Clipper are expected to be in the 1 to 3 fluffy inches range over Schoolcraft County (with some isolated spots east of Manistique possibly getting up to 4), decided to not hoist up a Winter Weather Advisory or Special Weather Statement. Otherwise, most other places across the U.P. should see snow totals in the 1 to 2 inch range by dawn this morning, with the Keweenaw and the east seeing closer to 2 inches while the central sees closer to 1 (maybe even just a trace near the Wisconsin border). CAMs show the last of the synoptic/lake-enhanced snowfall out of our area by 5 AM EST this morning.

Those who have been wanting warmer temperatures the past couple of days will be happier today: high temperatures are projected to be around 10 degrees warmer in comparison to yesterday, being in the mid 30s to around 40 near the lakeshores. While there may be some lake-effect snowfall across the west wind snow belts over the east and Keweenaw today, expect the lake-effect snowfall to be fairly light as warm air advection works its way over our area behind the Clipper; only an inch or less is expected.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM EST WED NOV 29 2023

Key Messages:

-Another weak clipper moves through late Thursday bringing light snow and light LES to the NW wind snowbelts into Thursday night.
-After drying Friday into Saturday with a warming trend, a series of weak shortwaves moving through the Great Lakes could bring in more light snow Sunday into the early part of next week.

Another clipper shortwave and associated sfc low pressure system tracks east across Northern Ontario just north of Lake Superior on Thursday dragging a cold front across our area. Model and ensemble means suggest 850 mb temps dropping to -11C to -12C late Thu in the wake of the cold front leading to lake-850 mb delta-Ts increasing to the mid teens. This CAA should be sufficient for some lake effect snow showers late Thursday into Thursday night for the west to northwest wind lake effect snow belts, however given the sharp anticyclonic flow, low inversion heights of 4 kft or less and inverted-v look of the fcst soundings in the wake of the cold front, not expecting anything more than a dusting of LES or perhaps just flurries.

Ridging building in will result in mostly dry conditions Friday into Saturday with a slight moderation in temps heading into the weekend due to weak WAA on the backside of the surface ridge axis.

Model uncertainty remains high for Sunday into Tuesday with poor agreement and run-to-run continuity regarding a series of shortwaves tracking through the Great Lakes. Most models indicate much of the shortwave energy and associated moisture sliding south and east of the Upper Great Lakes region during this period which should limit precipitation amounts. ECMWF and GEFS ensemble snowfall probabilities during the Sunday-Tuesday time frame also seem to bear this out indicating only between a 20-40 percent chance of an inch or more of snowfall per any 24-hour period over the U.P. In other words, this looks like nothing more than a few periods of low- impact, light snowfall for the U.P.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 602 AM EST WED NOV 29 2023

With the Clipper system exiting our region this morning, VFR conditions have returned to KIWD and will return to KSAW in the next hour or two as cloud cover scatters out. Meanwhile, some light lake- effect snow behind the Clipper looks to impact KCMX for the first half of today, keeping conditions MVFR. As the light lake-effect snowfall erodes over the Keweenaw today, expect conditions to eventually improve to VFR late this afternoon/early this evening over KCMX. Meanwhile, some lake-effect cloud cover may make it's way back over KSAW this afternoon, bringing cigs down to MVFR for a couple of hours. VFR conditions dominate tonight across the TAF sites. That being said, there is a 30% chance that a few hours of some low-end LLWS could be seen over KIWD early tonight. Likewise, I would say there is about a 50% chance that KSAW will see some LLWS late tonight too; however, given that it's at the end of the TAF period (and the chances are 30 and 50%, respectively), decided to keep LLWS mentions out of the TAFs for now.

MARINE
(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 308 AM EST WED NOV 29 2023

A trough passing across the lake this morning will shift winds from southwest to west as peak winds decrease from near gale to 30 kts today. West winds diminish to around 25 kts tonight ahead of the next cold front currently forecast to move through on Thursday.
Northwest winds will gust up to 30 kts behind the cold front on Thursday before winds generally diminish blo 20 knots Friday into the weekend under a high pressure ridge.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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