Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Michael, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures cool today and Saturday with highs in the low to mid 40s today and highs in the mid 30s to low 40s Saturday.
Temperatures warm Sunday with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and stay in this range through midweek next week.

- Mostly cloudy conditions with intermittent rain or snow showers, especially in the afternoons. Showers diminish from the west Saturday and Saturday night with only the Yukon Uplands and southeastern Brooks Range seeing showers Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A frontal boundary remains parked from Chukchi Sea coast through the central Seward Peninsula to the Yukon Delta. West of the front, mostly snow is falling while mostly rain is falling east of the front. The front slowly moves east and weakens through Saturday night and will be over the Western Interior tonight and eastern Interior Saturday afternoon.

- Winds have shifted west/southwest behind the front as it moves east. Wind speeds will continue to decrease through Saturday as the front moves further east and weakens.

- High temperatures will be mainly in the 20s along the coast and in the 30s inland.

- Showers return to the Yukon Delta Sunday evening as the next system approaches. Showers stretch north to the southern Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island by Monday morning. Showers are expected to be a messy rain/snow mix but with significantly less accumulations than the previous system.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Blizzard conditions are improving this evening as winds diminish. A Blizzard Warning is in effect through this evening with strong easterly winds with gusts up to 40 mph and some light snow showers and recent snowfall creating areas of blowing snow reducing visibility to as low as a quarter mile at times.

- Snow showers continue along the south slopes of the Brooks Range and north to around Toolik Lake along the Dalton Highway. Most areas can expect 3 to 6 inches through Sunday night.

- Temperatures will be steady between 0 and 10 above near the coast and in the teens and 20s in the Brooks Range.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A front stretching from the Chukchi Sea Coast through the eastern Seward Peninsula and into the Lower Yukon Valley is slowly moving east and weakening as the upper level and surface lows that are supporting it fill in. This process happens rapidly and causes the organized body of the front to fall apart Saturday as it's remnant energy and moisture continues to support scattered showers across the Interior. A 533 dam upper level high in the high Arctic and a weak ridge that builds in the Gulf of Alaska as the low in the Gulf moves east Saturday help to increase surface pressure in the Interior to clear out the showers from the western and central Interior by Sunday. Two lows move into the southwestern Bering Sea Saturday and rotate around each other with the eastern of these lows becoming a shortwave rotating around the western low. This shortwave rotates into YK Delta and brings more messy showers to the Yukon Delta Sunday afternoon with wet snow, sleet, and rain likely. Accumulations will be generally less than an inch of heavy, wet snow, but some areas further south may see up to two inches of this wet, heavy snow. These showers will stretch into the southern Seward Peninsula and to St. Lawrence Island by Monday morning bringing very light accumulations of wet snow with sleet and rain being less likely. These showers will move east into the eastern Norton Sound and into the lower Yukon Valley as the main low moves east to over St. Matthew Island by Monday afternoon before being pulled south into the Gulf of Alaska by better dynamics allowing a smaller shortwave feature to rapidly strengthen into the new main low and pull the rest of the system into the Gulf to end these showers.



.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The Arctic high persists through the week and strengthens into a 1040 to 1045 mb high with models disagreeing on its exact placement, but all pulling it further south. Another low moves through the southern Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday through Friday providing some more scattered showers to the YK Delta and lower Yukon. Models agree fairly well on this low with the exception of the Canadian, which closes the low off in the Bering Sea and keeps it from entering the Gulf of Alaska.
Other models favor bringing the low into the Gulf leaving the West Coast generally dry, but if the Canadian solution proves correct then we'll see more messy mixed showers in the YK Delta and southern Seward Peninsula.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ802>805.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813>815-858-859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.