Saturday, August8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Golovin, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 10:20PM Saturday August 8, 2020 12:58 AM AKDT (08:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:32PMMoonset 11:00AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 236 Pm Akdt Fri Aug 7 2020
Tonight..W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Sun night..W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 236 Pm Akdt Fri Aug 7 2020
Tonight..W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Sun night..W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Golovin, AK
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location: 64.45, -162.87     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK69 PAFG 072219 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 219 PM AKDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. Highlights are: Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms and above normal temperatures across the Interior today, with the most thunderstorms over the NE Interior. The thunderstorms over the Northeast Interior could contain hail and brief heavy downpours today. Expect temperatures to cool to normal across the Interior Sat and Sun, with isolated thunderstorms diminishing gradually over the Western Interior over the weekend.

Rain is expect from Sun night through Mon over much of the Eastern Interior east of Nenana. Heavy rain is possible along the Alaska Range and Eastern Interior just east of Fairbanks Sun night and Mon, with 1-2 inches of rain possible from Isabell Pass north to Eagle Summit. Heavy rain could last into Tue in this area as well, but that is uncertain at this time. If this rain occurs, it could cause flooding along the Goodpaster, Salcha, Chatanika and Chena Rivers next week, and localized flooding in the Delta Junction and Isabel Pass areas.

Aloft . The long wave trough stretching from the Chukchi Sea south over the Eastern Bering Sea and Western Alaska will progress east over Alaska by early next week as a strong short wave moves east across the Gulf of Alaska Sat night and Sun and to the SE Interior Sun night into Mon. This strong short wave is expected to bring significant rain to the Interior east of Fairbanks Sun night through Mon night. The long wave weakens and moves north and east Tue and Wed next week, as a ridge builds from the Eastern Pacific north over Mainland Alaska. The ridge could last through next weekend over the Interior, but much uncertainty on that as model solutions differ significantly on location of short waves cutting through the ridge.

Weak instability over most of the Interior will allow isolated thunderstorms today. Instability will be slightly greater and thunderstorms widely scattered with numerous showers, with potential for hail and heavy downpours, located in areas with weak upper level troughs increasing instability. This will allow showers and possibly thunderstorms to continue late tonight. The areas with upper level troughs and increased chance of thunderstorms and showers are over the Northern Interior from from Bettles to Old Crow, McGrath to Tanana, from Unalakleet to Anvik, and Northway to Dawson. Most of these features will weaken late tonight and Sat as ridging builds.

Weak southerly down slope flow will develop Sat PM over the Alaska Range, causing drying conditions over the Tanana Valley and limiting convection just north of the Alaska Range. The weak chinook will combined with gap flow to cause south gusts to 40 mph through Alaska Range Passes on Sat. That down slope will continue into early Sun AM.

A short wave moving into the SE Interior Sun PM will cause the downslope to end and rain to develop. With the short wave lingering over the SE Interior into Mon, then moving into the NE Interior Tue, expect rain over most of the Interior East of Nenana Sun night into Mon night, with heavy rain from Isabel pass to Eagle Summit from Sun night until Mon night.

Surface . A low pressure trough that extends from Bethel to Kotzebue to Barter Island will dissipate tonight. This is is causing onshore winds most coastal areas along with stratus and fog. There will be dense fog again tonight in zones 203 204.

A second thermal low pressure trough stretching from the Seward Peninsula to Ft Yukon to Old Crow will remain in place tonight then move along the Brooks Range on Sat where it will persist into Mon. This thermal trough will serve as a focus for PM convection with scattered to widespread showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms today, and then scattered showers and isolated PM thunderstorms along the trough Sat and Sun.

A cold front along the Gulf of Alaska Coast will weaken and move north to along the Alaska Range by 4pm Sat. This will cause isolated to scattered showers along the Alaska Range Sat.

A weak ridge of high pressure south of the Alaska Range will build Sat PM behind the cold front. This will cause south winds to increase to 25 mph gusting to 40 mph through Alaska Range Passes on Sat PM. Could see RH drop to 35-45% along the north slopes of the Alaska Range Sat PM with this dying cold front and winds.

A 996 mb low in the NW Bering will move to near St Matthew Is as a 1002 mb low by 4pm Sat and to near the YK Delta as a 1010 mb low by 4pm Sun. This will bring scattered showers to SW Alaska Sat night and Sun.

A strong low developing in the Gulf of Alaska on Sat will move to the northeast Gulf of Alaska by 4pm Sun, and over the SE Interior by early Mon, where it remain in place through Mon PM then moves NE into the Northeast Interior on Tue. This is expected to bring rain to the SE Interior South and East of Fairbanks Sun PM through Mon night, with heavy rain between Isabel Pass and Eagle Summit. Expect 1-2 inches of rain between Isabel Pass on Eagle Summit Sun night through Mon Night, with 0.25-.50 inch rain over the remainder of the Eastern Interior south and east of Nenana Sun night through Mon night.

DISCUSSION. Models initialize 10-20 meters too high at 500 mb level across most of Northern Alaska. This may cause models to have slightly too much instability displayed today across the Interior. Since the GFS builds the 500 mb ridge over the Eastern Interior a bit faster than other models through Sat and is preferred for this reason. Similar patterns emerge with other fields aloft. With precip, the GFS and ECMF areal coverage looks pretty good, while the NAM has too limited areal coverage with convective precip. The NAM reflects the higher levels of accumulation that are possible with convection better than the other models. Prefer to use a blend of the GFS, NAM and ECMF for areal coverage and amounts, but leaning more towards the GFS for areal coverage, and leaning towards the NAM for precip amounts.

At the surface, models verify well at 12Z with the numerous surface lows all within 1-2 mb of the verifying surface map. Differences start to show up with Sat night and Sun in the Gulf of Alaska where the NAM and GFS deepen a surface low 7 mb deeper than the ECMF and keep this feature deeper as it moves over the SE Interior on Mon. Prefer a blend of the GFS and NAM at the surface.

Bottom line is, prefer the GFS for temps, and for convection today through Sun. Prefer to use a blend of the GFS, NAM and ECMF for areal coverage and amounts, but leaning more towards the GFS for areal coverage, and leaning towards the NAM for precip amounts. Prefer a blend of the GFS and NAM for winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4 . None.

FIRE WEATHER. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms and above normal temperatures across the Interior today, with the most thunderstorms and lightning over the NE Interior. The thunderstorms over the Northeast Interior could contain hail and brief heavy downpours today. Expect temperatures to cool to normal across the Interior Sat and Sun, with isolated thunderstorms diminishing gradually over the Western Interior over the weekend.

Weak southerly chinook flow will develop Sat PM over the Alaska Range, causing drying conditions over the North Slopes of the Alaska Range, limiting convection just north of the Alaska Range. Could see RH drop to 35-45% along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range Sat PM with this. The weak chinook will combine with gap flow to cause south gusts to 40 mph through Alaska Range Passes on Sat PM. That downslope flow will continue into early Sun AM.

A strong low developing in the Gulf of Alaska on Sat will move over the SE Interior by early Mon, where it remain in place through Mon PM then move into the Northeast Interior on Tue. This is expected to bring rain to the Eastern Interior South and East of Nenana Sun PM through Mon night, with heavy rain between Isabel Pass and Eagle Summit. Expect 1-2 inches of rain between Isabel Pass on Eagle Summit Sun night through Mon Night, with 0.25-.50 inch rain over the remainder of the Eastern Interior south and east of Nenana Sun night through Mon night.

HYDROLOGY. Rain is expected from Sun night through Mon night over much of the Eastern Interior south and east of Nenana. Heavy rain is possible along the Alaska Range and Eastern Interior just east of Fairbanks Sun night and Mon, with 1-2 inches of rain possible from Isabell Pass north to Eagle Summit. Heavy rain could last into Tue in this area as well, but that is uncertain at this time. Most Interior rivers are high now. If this rain does occur as forecast, it could cause flooding along the Goodpaster, Salcha, Chatanika and Chena Rivers next week, with localized flooding in the Delta Junction and Isabel Pass areas.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

JB AUG 20


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Golovin, Golovin Airport, AK11 mi63 minESE 410.00 miOvercast53°F51°F93%999.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAGL

Wind History from AGL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NW3NE5CalmNW7NW6--NW6----NW6--NW5--W4S5W4W5------W6SW4E4
1 day ago--N7N6N85
G14
NW9N5E14E11--E16SE11SE11SE12--SE12SE11--SE9SE10--E5SE8SE7
2 days ago3--N4N5NE5NW6CalmN4E7CalmNW4W3W4E5--CalmNW5------N5N5SW7NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Carolyn Island, Golovnin Bay, Norton Sound, Alaska
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Carolyn Island
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Sat -- 12:32 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:20 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:00 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:13 PM AKDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:10 PM AKDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:30 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.40.60.80.90.90.9111.11.21.31.41.51.51.51.41.20.90.60.40.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for North Bay, Stuart Island, Norton Sound, Alaska
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North Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:31 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:58 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:32 PM AKDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:29 PM AKDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:22 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.91.21.41.51.51.51.51.61.81.92.12.32.42.42.31.91.51.10.70.50.40.40.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Nome, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.