Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Golovin, AK

DISCUSSION

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A remnant occluded low center remains over Bristol Bay with the upper center analyzed around 513 dam. There is an occluded front moving inland along the N Gulf Coast with the associated trough axis inducing a cross-barrier south flow across the Chugach Mtns and Alaska Range. South winds to 50+ mph are currently moving through the terrain of the AK Range. There is a 973 mb low associated with the Bristol Bay occlusion, a 991 mb low over the Yukon Flats, and a 1030 mb high over the higher arctic region. The combo of lee troughing across the AK Range and a deep low over the Bering Sea is inducing a Tanana Valley Jet from Delta Junction to Nenana.

Forecast and Model Discussion...
The Bering low dives into the Gulf the next two days and a strong southerly jet will develop a low which will track from the Panhandle to the SE Interior Sun night and Mon. There was some discrepancy earlier with the ECMWF much weaker and east, but the 12z run came in stronger and further west, which is in-line with everything else. We will favor a blend to all 12z models to increase snow chances over the E Interior from Eagle to Tok Sun night and Mon. Thereafter, the pattern remains mundane as all models develop a weak arctic trough over the W Interior and then slowly migrate it east through the week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
South flow is producing a cross-barrier flow which is inducing south winds through the passes to 55 mph and a 35 mph Tanana Valley Jet through Delta Junction. These winds peak tonight and then quickly wane Sunday late morning. A low will clip the SE Interior Sun night and Monday, bringing rain/snow accumulations to the Yukon-Tanana Uplands and the Tanana Valley down to 1000 feet.
A cold rain may move as far west as Delta Junction on Monday.

An arctic cool front will begin to slowly move east Tuesday, with increasing chances for snow flurries down to the deck, as well as gradually cooling temps.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Strong gales moving down the Bering Strait will continue through the weekend then begin to wane on Monday. An arctic front will shift east tonight and Monday and that will bring in colder temps and chances for snow showers across coastal regions, with heavier accumulating snow over the higher terrain of the Seward Peninsula.
With north winds gusting to 35 to 40 mph over the Bering coasts, there will likely be some areas of blowing snow as it falls from the sky. Snow showers continue into Tuesday even as the north winds wane.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Dense fog will likely return tonight over parts of the Arctic, especially Prudhoe Bay east given the lighter winds and continued onshore flow aloft advecting marine moisture inland. An arctic front will move into the W Arctic and those west winds will start to move east Mon night and Tue so dense fog should improve. North winds and snow showers increase out west Monday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
An arctic trough forms over the Mainland early next week and will remain in place through about Thursday before another deep low moves from the Bering to the Gulf of AK. Cooler temps running slightly below seasonal norms will be the main highlight along with chances for snow flurries and maybe higher elevation snow accumulations.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
High Surf Advisory for AKZ827.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-805>807-850-853-856-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-852-860.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.