NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1100 PM Monday...

Minor tweaks to temperatures for the overnight have been made, but otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with a quiet and warm night ahead.

As of 820 PM Monday...

Heat indices have fallen below that of advisory criteria, thus, the Heat Advisory was allowed to expire at 8 PM. Otherwise, a few isolated showers and storms are possible throughout the remainder of the evening, primarily across our far northern WV zones or in the central WV mountains. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 510 PM Monday...

A dry lower atmosphere for this time of year has allowed for temperatures this afternoon/evening to exceed central guidance, with mid to upper 90s across much of the lowlands at present.
Given such, did tweak temperatures a couple degrees higher area-wide this evening. Convection has initiated northwest of the area over the past couple of hours, and is gradually approaching our SE OH zones. Overall, a general weakening trend is expected given a less favorable airmass the further S/E in direction one goes. Nevertheless, isolated strong to severe storms across SE OH into northern WV do remain possible this evening, with the main hazards being strong wind gusts, hail, and heavy downpours. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 140 PM Monday...

Key Points:

* Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and again this evening could produce localized strong to damaging wind gusts.

* Another hot day is expected Tuesday with heat index values approaching 100 degrees.

* Uncertainty remains with convective initiation on Tuesday, but likely driven by MCV from decaying morning activity. Primary threat with storms will be damaging wind gusts.

Clouds/isolated rain showers associated with a mesoscale convective vortex will continue to brush by our northern counties through early this afternoon, with largely just diurnal cumulus blossoming elsewhere through the afternoon. This has allowed for full insolation with surface temperatures warming in the mid to upper 90s across much of the lower elevations. While surface dew points may mix down into the mid 60s through late this afternoon, this should still support heat index values in the vicinity of 100 degrees for much of the lower elevations and will continue with existing heat advisories for this afternoon into the evening.

While forecast profiles are only minimally capped at best, the lack of well defined forcing will likely limit overall convective coverage this afternoon, especially across the northwest in subsidence in the wake of the departing MCV. Should anything manage to get going, outflow driven convective initiation would support more substantial coverage as storms propagate however. With relatively weak shear, around 20KTs and 20 to 25 degree surface dew point spreads, the primary threat with any activity would be locally damaging wind gusts. Another weak shortwave arriving toward mid/late evening may be able to get some elevated activity established across the north, and will code up some at least chance PoPs for this possibility, although confidence is on the lower side.

Remnants of a decaying mesoscale convective complex dropping out of the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday morning could place convective debris and/or outflows across the area during early heating Tuesday, shower/thunderstorm activity is largely expected to dissipate before it arrives in our area however.

With at least some uncertainly as to convective debris coverage/remnant outflow position heading into Tuesday will defer the decision for another day of heat advisories to the midnight shift, but this does look increasingly likely, especially across the southern 2/3rd of the lower elevations.

Considerable uncertainty remains as to convective evolution on Tuesday, but it seems plausible that convective initiation will be a focused by a remnant MCV in the afternoon from the aforementioned complex approaching our western counties toward daybreak. The main threat with any storms will be damaging wind gusts given ~20F surface dew point depressions. Wouldn't be out of the question to get some hail out of storm scale interaction, but weaker shear and freezing levels near 15kft will limit overall hail risk.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1150 AM Monday...

Key Point:

* A cold front can bring anywhere from 1.00-1.50" of much needed rain Wednesday, but isolated flooding will still be possible in streets and poor-drainage areas.

A cold front will be crossing the region Wednesday, bringing much needed rainfall. This is not likely to be a drought-busting rain, but with 1.00-1.50" expected across the region, it will still be beneficial. Because of how dry things have been as of late, the threat for flooding shouldn't be a widespread concern. However, isolated street and poor-drainage flooding will still be possible, especially with any training thunderstorms.

Severe weather doesn't appear likely Wednesday. Clouds and rain along the frontal boundary will prevent much destabilization. The SPC currently only has our area outlooked in a general thunder risk.

The front will also bring a change to much cooler conditions areawide. High temperatures will only reach the lower to middle 80s Wednesday afternoon, thanks to widespread clouds and showers. The relief from the excessive heat will certainly be welcome.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1151 AM Monday...

Key Point:

* Behind the front will be much cooler and more comfortable weather late this week and into this weekend.

High pressure will gradually press southward from the Great Lakes behind the front Thursday and Friday. This should bring clearing skies and a refreshing northerly breeze across the area, with high temperatures topping out in the lower-to-middle 60s each day. The aforementioned front will stall out over the Carolinas into this weekend. A few mid-level impulses from the south may trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms across the mountains late this week and into this weekend, but the best chance of rain will be southeast of our coverage area, in the vicinity of the stalled front.

By early next week, the front may slide to the north and back closer to our area, but the models show a lot of uncertainty at this time.
Just keep in mind that the potential for more widespread rain may return again early next week.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 820 PM Monday...

Mainly dry conditions are expected tonight outside of a highly isolated shower or storm. This results in widespread VFR conditions overnight. A touch of fog across the deeper river valleys of eastern/southern WV and southwest VA remains possible later tonight, but currently is not anticipated to result in restrictions at any terminals.

Tuesday will feature a developing Cu field late morning into the afternoon, with once again the chance for ISOL showers/storms later in the day, likely a bit more widespread than today. Given low confidence in timing/placement, any mention of showers/storms on Tuesday has been left out of the TAFs for the time being.
Brief IFR/MVFR VSBY restrictions and gusty winds are possible on Tuesday with any heavier showers or storms.

Calm or light SSW surface flow is expected tonight. WSW surface flow will develop on Tuesday. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots are expected during the afternoon and evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight, medium Tuesday w/ showers/storms.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR restrictions are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening with showers and thunderstorms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE TUE 07/16/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms.

CLIMATE
As of 1100 PM Monday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the region through Tuesday. The record high temperatures for Tuesday, July 16 are listed below for our official climate sites, along with the current forecast values.

Forecast / Record Highs ----------------------- Tuesday, 7/16 | ----------------------- CRW | 98 / 104 (1988) | HTS | 96 / 102 (1988) | CKB | 92 / 97 (1995) | PKB | 91 / 102 (1988) | BKW | 90 / 96 (1912) | EKN | 91 / 99 (1988) | -----------------------

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.