Sunrise 4:40 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 2:27 AM   Moonset 4:06 PM

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FXUS61 KCAR 021356 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 956 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure slowly builds to our south through today. An area of low pressure slowly drifts west over the southern Canadian Maritimes tonight, followed by high pressure building down from the northeast Monday through Wednesday. The high then slowly slides offshore through Thursday, as a complex storm system slowly moves across the northern Great Lakes.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
945am Update...
Dry, sunny day today. Upper level ridge axis is centered just to our west and is inching east over our area today. This is bringing continued warm advection, and a good amount of warm advection had already occurred aloft in this morning's Caribou sounding. Based on the warming aloft, raised high temperatures a touch (about 2F) over most of the area and we are going a several degrees warmer than model consensus. Looking for highs generally around 80F. Thankfully, the air is still dry with low dewpoints, so it won't feel too bad. Winds will be light and generally out of the north, except shifting to the south near the coast toward late afternoon with the sea breeze. Tried depicting the sea breeze a bit better in the wind forecast, which was underdone in the models yesterday especially for coastal Hancock, and expect it to be underdone in the models again today. Strong subsidence today should keep even any diurnal cumulus few and far between. A bit of an increase in high clouds from the west later, but still it will be generally sunny.

Previous Discussion: Clear skies remain over the forecast area this morning with high pressure continuing to slowly build into the area. With light winds and clear to mostly clear skies persisting through the day today, temperatures are expected to soar above seasonal averages for this time of the year, with highs reaching into the upper 70s over most of the forecast area, to the lower 80s in the Bangor area.

A broad area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will begin to retrograde westward towards our region late tonight.
With a 700mb vort max swinging into the eastern half of the CWA, there could be isolated light rain showers late tonight, with the best chance being across Washington county. Otherwise, partly to mostly clear skies will persist into the night tonight with relatively light winds, though low temperatures overnight will also be slightly warmer than average, with lows only falling into the lower 50s across most of the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Whats left of an occluded sfc low and associated upper low ovr the Ern Maritimes will begin to move SSE back ovr the adjacent open N Atlc. Most if not all of the remaining shwrs will likely dissipate due to downsloping between the NB highlands and the Ern ME/NB border by erly to mid Mon Morn. Cyclonic flow alf, however, will allow some intermittent, but xtnsv SC cld cvr to retrograde wwrd ovr the FA from NB Mon, with this cld cvr xpctd to persist somewhat Mon Ngt into Tue Morn as the upper low makes contd slow progress SE. High temps Mon Aftn and to a lesser xtnt Tue Aftn look to be warmest ovr far NW vlys, which be near the wrn edge of the SC cld cvr with near seasonal low temps Mon Ngt.

Skies will become mclr Tue Ngt as open ridging alf replaces cyclonic flow alf, with this ridging holding on thru Wed with ptly to msly sunny skies. After another ngt of seasonal ovrngt lows Tue Ngt, Wed Aftn temps should be about 5 deg F warmer than Tue Aftn, spcly across the N where highs should reach the lower 80s ovr low trrn lctns.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
By Wed Ngt into Thu, the upper ridge ovr the FA gets flattened out as a large upper low from the Great Lks apchs. Skies will remain fair Wed Ngt, but clds will slowly increase from WSW to ENE across the FA durg Thu. This will likely result in inverted SW to NE high temps by Thu Aftn, with far Nrn low trrn areas still possibly reaching 80 deg F, with cld cvr capping highs in the mid to upper 70s ovr the S and W.

The leading edge of shwrs from the sfc/upper low will gradually cross from W to E across the FA beginning late Thu Aftn into the Ovrngt hrs. The consensus of long range models keep shwrs arnd for our Rgn Fri thru Fri Ngt as a weakening sfc occluded front crosses the FA followed by upper lvl s/wv trofs from arnd the large upper low as it moves into Ern Ont crossing ovr our FA.
Max PoPs reach the low likely range Fri Aftn into Fri Eve likely being aided by a diurnal htg component. Saying this, models do not show enough MUCAPE to mention thunder any tm from Thu Ngt thru Fri Ngt attm. Blended model guidance conts to show chc shwr PoPs thru Sat as the upper low ovr Ern Ont and SW QB stretches E ovr our FA. Day tm temps will be progressively cooler Fri and Sat but still abv normal, however, this could chg for cooler if subsequent model runs show more organized rnfl Fri and Sat.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will continue through the day today and into the night tonight, with skies remaining SKC over most terminals. Light and variable winds will increase slightly this afternoon, approaching 10 kts out of the N. With the chance for a sea breeze this afternoon, coastal terminals could see winds briefly shift S later this afternoon. Tonight, winds will once again become light and variable. -SHRA may move over Washington County terminals late tonight, but conditions are expected to remain VFR.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mon - Thu...all TAF sites VFR clgs to unlmtd VFR. Lgt N to NE winds Mon becmg lgt and vrbl Mon Ngt-Wed Ngt, then lgt S on Thu.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Conditions below SCA levels with no marine fog.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns xpctd thru these ptns of the fcst with winds/seas msly well below SCA thresholds. Kept close to blended wv model guidance with emphasis on NWPS for fcst wv hts.
Wvs will be msly composed of two spectral groups; a short 3-5sec group and a longer semi-swell group around 8sec.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030.
MARINE...None.

Traverse St-Roch
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Sun -- 12:51 AM EDT     7.94 meters High Tide
Sun -- 02:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:17 AM EDT     4.23 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 01:20 PM EDT     7.71 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:32 PM EDT     4.10 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
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Cap Aux Oies
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Sun -- 12:39 AM EDT     4.72 meters High Tide
Sun -- 02:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT     0.96 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 01:05 PM EDT     4.65 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:18 PM EDT     0.89 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cap Aux Oies, Quebec, Tide feet

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