Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 1:39 AM   Moonset 2:10 PM

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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 402 Pm Cdt Fri May 31 2024
This afternoon - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Thunderstorms likely with a chance of showers. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 402 Pm Cdt Fri May 31 2024
Synopsis -
onshore flow around 15 knots and seas of 3-4 feet will prevail this afternoon into Saturday. Another round of Thunderstorms will develop from mid Saturday morning through late afternoon. Onshore winds will become lighter Saturday evening through the upcoming week. Just an isolated shower or Thunderstorm possible offshore Sunday with drier conditions expected through the remainder of the week.

FXUS64 KLCH 010433 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1133 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The latest MCS to traverse the region is presently pushing into southeast Louisiana with cloud cover becoming scattered in it's wake. While this will allow for some late afternoon heating, the atmosphere has been pretty well worked over and it's unlikely there will be enough time for sufficient recovery to support any significant convective redevelopment this evening.

Winds should become light overnight and with soils again saturated, patchy light fog will be possible overnight especially where clearing skies allow for temps to drop a bit more. Any development should be short lived as another, albeit weaker, shortwave is progged to swing across the region Saturday. Latest CAMS guidance, which has admittedly been poor as of late, has been indicating convective initialization by mid morning and continuing through late Saturday afternoon. Plenty of tropical moisture in place across the region will continue to support high rainfall rates in thunderstorms and the general instability will support a marginal risk of damaging winds.

For Sunday, the region will be on the southern periphery of another shortwave, but afternoon convection looks to be more diurnally driven and should be more scattered in nature compared to recent events and should dissipate fairly quickly through the early evening. High rainfall rates will again be possible with any convection.

Jones

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The long term begins Monday with the area under a nearly zonal flow aloft while at the sfc, high pressure over the Atlantic maintains a moist srly low-level flow. Forecast soundings indicate less capping and better moisture over the nern zones...and with daytime heating being the primary driver, we could see a few showers/storms during the afternoon across mainly cntl LA.

For Tuesday, we begin to see ridging developing aloft in response to a mid/upper-level low digging swd through the Desert SW into nwrn Mexico...the resulting capping should keep convection at bay across our region despite the continued good low-level moisture.

Wednesday currently looks like a repeat performance, although the passage of a decent shortwave rounding the ridge could lead to an isolated shower/storm again over our nern zones...for now, POPs have been capped at just under the slight chance threshold.

Rain chances, albeit small, return to the forecast for Thursday as the ridge begins breaking down in response to a digging trof over the ern CONUS...the resultant weak capping allowing for widely scattered convection to develop.

Temperatures are progged to start rather seasonal with daytime highs around 90F, although warmer than normal mins are forecast with readings all through the 70s. A slight warming trend is in the works with highs in the lower/mid 90s by period's end...overnight lows remain rather static.

25

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas of ground fog are beginning to develop across the area. A few observations have noted VIS as low as 1 to 2 SM in central Louisiana where most rain fell yesterday. All terminals are carrying at least some mention of fog at 4 to 5 SM through the morning hours and MVFR ceilings over the next few hours.

South to southeast winds pick up again after 12z with the diurnal cycle, as well as rain and thunderstorm chances and lowering ceilings. Expecting periods of showers and thunderstorms to develop and move over the region in daylight hours tomorrow.
Especially in the afternoon and early evening. Convective development should dissipate after sundown, with mentions of light rain lingering at AEX, LFT and ARA after 00z.

11/Calhoun

MARINE
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Onshore flow around 15 knots and seas of 3-4 feet will prevail this afternoon into Saturday. Another round of thunderstorms will develop from mid Saturday morning through late afternoon. Onshore winds will become lighter Saturday evening through the upcoming week. Just an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible offshore Sunday with drier conditions expected through the remainder of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 69 86 69 88 / 40 70 20 50 LCH 73 88 74 87 / 30 70 20 40 LFT 75 89 75 89 / 30 80 20 50 BPT 74 88 75 89 / 40 60 10 30

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Cypremort Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:20 AM CDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:06 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:50 AM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:17 AM CDT     0.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:17 AM CDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:04 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:51 PM CDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:03 PM CDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cypremort Point, Louisiana, Tide feet

Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:05 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:22 AM CDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM CDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:03 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:23 PM CDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

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