Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Dorado, KS
July 3, 2024 4:38 AM CDT (09:38 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 8:56 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM Moonset 6:20 PM |
FXUS63 KICT 030825 AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 325 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered thunderstorms this morning, some could be strong and produce small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.
- Additional storms expected tonight, some could be strong to severe with up to quarter sized hail, up to 70 mph winds gusts, and locally heavy rainfall.
- Additional strong to severe storm chances are expected the afternoon and evening of Independence day along and east of the Flint Hills.
- Near to slightly below average temperatures expected over the next week or so.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows broad mid/upper troughing across the northern plains, and upper air analysis suggests Kansas remains in the right entrance region of jet max over the Midwest. With the help of upper level diffluence, showers and storms are developing across southwest and far southern Kansas this morning. This activity is expected to spread north and east through the morning hours. While these storms are expected to stay sub-severe, we can't rule out a few stronger storms producing dime to nickel sized hail and gusty winds given 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE across the area. PWATs around 2 inches will allow for high rainfall rates, so localized flooding cannot be ruled out as well.
Storm chances should gradually wane from west to east this afternoon, but another round of storms is forecast to develop across the High Plains.
A strong MCS is expected to develop across the High Plains this afternoon, but there is still quite of bit of uncertainty about how far east this complex will stay organized enough to produce severe weather. Currently, it appears as though showers and storms across southern and eastern Kansas during the day today will limit sufficient instability to central Kansas. That being said, instability across the area doesn't completely diminish, and a strong enough LLJ could support strong to marginally severe storms overnight across the remainder of the forecast area. However, the main concern for up to quarter-sized hail and up to 70 mph wind gusts will likely be limited to the I-70 corridor between Russell and Salina.
A frontal boundary is expected to reside across southern and eastern Kansas in the wake of thunderstorm activity from late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Should showers and storms clear out enough Thursday, diurnal heating along the front and continued synoptic support in the form of upper level diffluence will allow for another round of storm development for areas along and east of the Flint Hills. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, and will likely impact any afternoon or evening Independence Day plans.
Storm chances gradually diminish overnight Thursday night, and the area will see a bit of a break on Friday.
Additional storm chances are forecast from late Saturday night through late Sunday night, but the main story for much of the forecast period will be cooler temperatures expected across the area. Temperatures from today through next Tuesday are expected to remain at or just below average for this time of year.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the period. -SHRA and isolated -TSRA is expected towards dawn across much of central and south central KS. Have addressed this likelihood with prevailing -SHRA and VCTS at all sites with CNU being excluded. Otherwise, a challenging wind forecast with the frontal zone remaining draped across the area resulting in variable winds. Additional storms are possible at GBD and RSL towards the end of the period.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 325 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered thunderstorms this morning, some could be strong and produce small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.
- Additional storms expected tonight, some could be strong to severe with up to quarter sized hail, up to 70 mph winds gusts, and locally heavy rainfall.
- Additional strong to severe storm chances are expected the afternoon and evening of Independence day along and east of the Flint Hills.
- Near to slightly below average temperatures expected over the next week or so.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows broad mid/upper troughing across the northern plains, and upper air analysis suggests Kansas remains in the right entrance region of jet max over the Midwest. With the help of upper level diffluence, showers and storms are developing across southwest and far southern Kansas this morning. This activity is expected to spread north and east through the morning hours. While these storms are expected to stay sub-severe, we can't rule out a few stronger storms producing dime to nickel sized hail and gusty winds given 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE across the area. PWATs around 2 inches will allow for high rainfall rates, so localized flooding cannot be ruled out as well.
Storm chances should gradually wane from west to east this afternoon, but another round of storms is forecast to develop across the High Plains.
A strong MCS is expected to develop across the High Plains this afternoon, but there is still quite of bit of uncertainty about how far east this complex will stay organized enough to produce severe weather. Currently, it appears as though showers and storms across southern and eastern Kansas during the day today will limit sufficient instability to central Kansas. That being said, instability across the area doesn't completely diminish, and a strong enough LLJ could support strong to marginally severe storms overnight across the remainder of the forecast area. However, the main concern for up to quarter-sized hail and up to 70 mph wind gusts will likely be limited to the I-70 corridor between Russell and Salina.
A frontal boundary is expected to reside across southern and eastern Kansas in the wake of thunderstorm activity from late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Should showers and storms clear out enough Thursday, diurnal heating along the front and continued synoptic support in the form of upper level diffluence will allow for another round of storm development for areas along and east of the Flint Hills. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, and will likely impact any afternoon or evening Independence Day plans.
Storm chances gradually diminish overnight Thursday night, and the area will see a bit of a break on Friday.
Additional storm chances are forecast from late Saturday night through late Sunday night, but the main story for much of the forecast period will be cooler temperatures expected across the area. Temperatures from today through next Tuesday are expected to remain at or just below average for this time of year.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the period. -SHRA and isolated -TSRA is expected towards dawn across much of central and south central KS. Have addressed this likelihood with prevailing -SHRA and VCTS at all sites with CNU being excluded. Otherwise, a challenging wind forecast with the frontal zone remaining draped across the area resulting in variable winds. Additional storms are possible at GBD and RSL towards the end of the period.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KAAO
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KAAO
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KAAO
Wind History graph: AAO
(wind in knots)
Wichita, KS,
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