Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Dorado, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Currently, a broad mid/upper level ridge is centered over the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS with a trough digging into the Pac NW. A surface trough continues to sit across the state. As the LLJ interacts with this stationary boundary, rain and storms have lead to beneficial rainfall across portions of central Kansas overnight. An outflow boundary surging out ahead of the activity will draw convection slightly further south. Current thinking is the storms will stay just northwest of the I-35 corridor. This activity will gradually wane throughout the early morning hours with only a few lingering showers/sprinkles by daybreak.

For the rest of today, temperatures are expected to soar into the lower 100s once again. Depending on where exactly the surface boundary sets up, a few locations in central Kansas may manage to remain in the upper 90s for highs. Then, another round of storms is expected to develop later this afternoon/early evening along the stationary boundary. Moderate instability along with low/mid level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km will support a few severe storms with strong wind gusts remaining the main threat into the early overnight period. Sub-severe rain and storms are expected to persist into the overnight hours once again with the development of the LLJ. We'll rinse and repeat the forecast for Saturday with highs areawide expected in the low 100s. The surface boundary looks to lift slightly further north during the day on Saturday, leading to rain/storm chances remaining primarily across central Kansas and northward on Saturday night.

As an upper level trough traverses the Canadian Prairies and the northern tier of the US, the ridge will be squashed further south.
The stationary boundary that has been draped across the state will finally push south as a cold front on Sunday leading to more seasonable temperatures for Sunday into early next week. Rain and storm chances will linger into Monday, but drier air is expected in the wake of the front for Tuesday.

By mid week, the trough will dig into the Northeastern US and ridging will begin to build back in over the Plains from the west.
We will see temperatures respond accordingly with upper 90s and lower 100s possible again for Tue/Wed. POPs increase towards the end of the forecast period as model guidance suggests multiple shortwaves diving across the Northern and Central Plains leading to increased rain and storm chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A stalled frontal boundary continues to bisect central Kansas.
This boundary is expected to become a focus for showers and thunderstorms after 21-22Z. Wind direction in central Kansas will be difficult to pin down as the boundary meanders over the region through tonight. Gusty and erratic winds will also be common in and near showers and thunderstorms given the deeply mixed boundary layer. Another complex of showers and storms drifting eastward off the high plains of western Kansas could impact the area late tonight, but higher probabilities for more robust coverage may remain further north of the area. South of the frontal boundary, breezy southwest winds will be common once again with some gusts to around 30 mph at times.

CLIMATE
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

------------------- Friday August 14 -------------------

Location Forecast High Record High ------------------------------------------------ Wichita 104 110-1936 Salina 101 110-1936 Chanute 104 110-1936 Russell 98 106-1952

------------------- Saturday August 15 -------------------

Location Forecast High Record High ------------------------------------------------ Wichita 104 107-1956 Salina 102 112-1936 Chanute 103 110-1936 Russell 100 109-1983

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ048>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.