Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Dorado, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Early this morning, water vapor satellite and RAP upper air analysis shows a large and powerful trough beginning to exit northeastward off of the North American continent. Out west, an upper ridge has built out across the Rocky Mountains and Four Corners region while the next storm system is just now moving into the PNW. Closer to home, surface winds continue to remain out of the south allowing for warmer and more moist air to gradually return northward. Today will be the first of a handful of days where afternoon highs will rise into the 70s and 80s across the forecast area. The warmest temperatures will be across central Kansas where drier air is forecast to reside over the next few days. These warm, dry, and breezy conditions will promote very high grassland fire danger along and west of Kansas State Highway 14 this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Marginally lighter winds on Tuesday will slightly mitigate fire weather potential, but low end very high GFDI may still be possible for brief periods across central Kansas during the afternoon and evening hours.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...

Another system is anticipated to arrive into central and northern plains on Thursday likely bringing another round of showers and storms to the area. Mid-range guidance shows copious amounts of upper level forcing for ascent overspreading the central plains in response to a powerful upper trough translating eastward over the region. At the surface, a cold front will crash southward and collide with a northeast-to-southwest oriented dryline. This setup looks fairly similar to that of last Friday: ample instability and shear being more than sufficient to support severe storms, but strong forcing for ascent paired with shear vectors parallel to the boundary promoting a linear/messy storm mode. Therefore, the severity of this activity may be somewhat limited. Regardless of the severity, this system should bring another round of meaningful rainfall to many locations Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning.

Beyond Thursday, guidance continues to show persistent southwesterly mid/upper flow from a developing subtropical jet remaining over the central and southern plains this weekend and into early next week.
Should sufficient moisture be in place, additional showers and storms may be possible through the beginning of next week.
However, confidence in the forecast for Friday and beyond remains low at this time. Continue to stay tuned for updates to the forecast over the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

Some marginal low-level wind shear this morning should gradually wane over the next 2-4 hours. Surface winds should steadily increase today and will be around 15 knots out of the south or south-southwest by this afternoon. Some locations could see wind gusts around 25 to 30 knot at time this afternoon and evening. Sustained winds should stay at this magnitude tonight and into Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Stout/gusty south-southwest winds, low humidity, and above average temperatures will support very high grassland fire danger just about each afternoon through Thursday generally along and west of Highway 14 across central and south-central Kansas. However, marginally lighter winds Tuesday and Thursday afternoons may somewhat limit fire weather concerns across central and south-central Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.