Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Dorado, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Another pleasant weather day will be on tap for Kansas today with below normal daytime highs and lower humidity. There is a weak signal for 700mb warm advection developing tonight over northeast Kansas which could spark off some elevated activity that might clip some northeast parts of our CWA Some models are trying to generate storms over southeast Kansas on Tuesday afternoon/evening. The more notable signal is 700mb warm advection increasing late Tuesday night along with with low level jet sparking off elevated storms well northeast of Kansas.
There is a low possibility that a few elevated storms could try to develop near southeast Kansas around daybreak Wednesday morning only if enough moistening aloft can occur.

Hot and humid conditions remain on track for locations along and south of the front on Wednesday with westerly downslope effects boosting daytime highs into the upper 90s and low 100s over central/south central Kansas. Afternoon heat indices over 100 degrees are likely for most locations. Meanwhile a very unstable airmass will be in place for locations south of the front across Kansas and Missouri. Thunderstorms will blossom along the frontal boundary Wednesday afternoon across Missouri, as a pronounced upper level wave pivots southeast over Iowa. Thunderstorms will try to zipper their way westward into southeast Kansas by Wednesday evening as low level convergence increases. The combination of a very unstable airmass and unusually strong winds aloft will create an environment ripe for significant severe to occur. The best potential for significant severe weather will affect Missouri and could possibly clip parts of southeast Kansas.

Models are showing signs of showers/storms lingering into the morning hours on Thursday over southern Kansas with persistent 700mb warm advection. Things look to stabilize for Thursday night into Friday as surface high pressure builds over Kansas in the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage. Daytime highs will cool off a bit with below normal values likely to occur Thursday-Friday. Long range models are favoring next chance for storms to affect the area Saturday night into Sunday with an upper level wave projected to move eastward across Kansas.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Aviation concerns will remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.

Surface high pressure will remain in place through the Plains with the front that came through last night, now situated down across southern TX. A mix of high and mid level clouds will remain in place for tonight into Mon morning but confidence is high that they will remain at VFR levels. Northwest winds will come around to the southwest by late Mon morning and will remain on the light side.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.