Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manitou Springs, CO
July 3, 2024 4:30 AM MDT (10:30 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 3:10 AM Moonset 6:58 PM |
FXUS65 KPUB 030947 AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 347 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon, forming over the southeast mountains before moving east into this evening.
- Northwest flow aloft and occasional cold fronts will maintain a daily threat of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection through the extended, with temperatures at or slightly below seasonal normals.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Currently...
Chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight for the plains east of the I-25 corridor and push east towards the Kansas border. Any storms that develop are expected to dissipate by early morning. Widespread severe hazards are not expected due to diurnal cooling and overall lack of forcings, but large hail could be a concern with localized stronger storms.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
Strong zonal flow continues Wednesday as we remain behind a upper level trough with occasional embedded shortwaves. Expect warm weather with temperatures in the mid 80's for the plains, high 70's for the mountain valleys and 60s-70s for the mountains.
Wednesday afternoon has a set up that could potentially bring strong storms to the CWA Models are showing a weak dry line set up from the northern half of the state on the eastern plains extending through southern Colorado Wednesday afternoon. With MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and 25-30 knots of effective bulk shear for the eastern plains, expect scattered showers/thunderstorms to develop.
Storms are expected to develop in the afternoon off the Sangre De Cristos and spread east until they fizzle out overnight. Strong hail (1.5"+) and winds (60+ mph) are concerns with stronger storms based on forecast soundings.
Models are in agreement of timing/set up of convection north of the Palmer Divide, but start to disagree once south of the Palmer Divide into our CWA The HRRR is mixing out a majority of the convection with isolated storms developing off the southern mountains after noon, propagating east with some strengthening prior to moving into western Kansas. Ensembles are showing scattered storms develop off the southern mountains and quickly strengthen as they move off into the eastern plains. This is the most likely scenario based on model consensus and the SPC slight thunderstorm outlook for the northern portion of our CWA including Crowley and Kiowa counties.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Thursday through Saturday...A strong ridge of high pressure will reside over the West Coast through Saturday, keeping northwest flow aloft across CO. Minor disturbances in the upper flow will keep the threat of isolated to scattered convection in place each afternoon for the forecast area, with the best chances over the eastern mts, I- 25 Corridor and southern border. A dry cold front drops south across the Palmer Divide early Thu morning, ushering in cooler conditions.
High temps will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for Thu and Fri, which is normal for the high valleys but below normal for the plains. Saturday will be the warmest day of the extended as another shortwave drops into the Dakotas, increasing winds slightly across CO and bumping temps up into the mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains. In addition, spotty near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible across Fire Zones 220, 222 and 223 where minimum RH levels are forecast to drop below 15 percent.
Sunday through Tuesday..The large upper ridge to the west starts to move inland, with the high centroid pushing into the Great Basin region for the start of the next work week. This will effectively eliminate the northwest flow aloft that has been in place for a while now. Meanwhile, a stronger upper shortwave drops south into the Rockies early Sunday, pushing a cold front south into CO through the morning. This will knock temps back to below normal across the plains, as well as support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday across much of the area, including the eastern plains. Tuesday will start to warm back up again with less convection chances. As for temps, plan on highs in the mid 70s to around 80F each day for the high valleys. For the plains, temps will climb into the upper 70s to upper 80s Sunday and Monday, then mid 80s to lower 90s for Tuesday. Moore
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KALS: VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours. West winds will pick up this afternoon, gusting to around 25-30 knots, before weakening in the evening.
KCOS and KPUB: Southeast upsloping winds will dominate most of the morning, before turning more southerly in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in the area around mid-afternoon, moving in from the nearby higher terrain, lowering cloud ceilings and generating gusty outflow winds. If a thunderstorm manages to move close to the terminals, winds will become strong and erratic, around 40 knots or so, and precipitation could briefly limit visibility into MVFR range.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 347 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon, forming over the southeast mountains before moving east into this evening.
- Northwest flow aloft and occasional cold fronts will maintain a daily threat of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection through the extended, with temperatures at or slightly below seasonal normals.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Currently...
Chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight for the plains east of the I-25 corridor and push east towards the Kansas border. Any storms that develop are expected to dissipate by early morning. Widespread severe hazards are not expected due to diurnal cooling and overall lack of forcings, but large hail could be a concern with localized stronger storms.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
Strong zonal flow continues Wednesday as we remain behind a upper level trough with occasional embedded shortwaves. Expect warm weather with temperatures in the mid 80's for the plains, high 70's for the mountain valleys and 60s-70s for the mountains.
Wednesday afternoon has a set up that could potentially bring strong storms to the CWA Models are showing a weak dry line set up from the northern half of the state on the eastern plains extending through southern Colorado Wednesday afternoon. With MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and 25-30 knots of effective bulk shear for the eastern plains, expect scattered showers/thunderstorms to develop.
Storms are expected to develop in the afternoon off the Sangre De Cristos and spread east until they fizzle out overnight. Strong hail (1.5"+) and winds (60+ mph) are concerns with stronger storms based on forecast soundings.
Models are in agreement of timing/set up of convection north of the Palmer Divide, but start to disagree once south of the Palmer Divide into our CWA The HRRR is mixing out a majority of the convection with isolated storms developing off the southern mountains after noon, propagating east with some strengthening prior to moving into western Kansas. Ensembles are showing scattered storms develop off the southern mountains and quickly strengthen as they move off into the eastern plains. This is the most likely scenario based on model consensus and the SPC slight thunderstorm outlook for the northern portion of our CWA including Crowley and Kiowa counties.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Thursday through Saturday...A strong ridge of high pressure will reside over the West Coast through Saturday, keeping northwest flow aloft across CO. Minor disturbances in the upper flow will keep the threat of isolated to scattered convection in place each afternoon for the forecast area, with the best chances over the eastern mts, I- 25 Corridor and southern border. A dry cold front drops south across the Palmer Divide early Thu morning, ushering in cooler conditions.
High temps will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for Thu and Fri, which is normal for the high valleys but below normal for the plains. Saturday will be the warmest day of the extended as another shortwave drops into the Dakotas, increasing winds slightly across CO and bumping temps up into the mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains. In addition, spotty near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible across Fire Zones 220, 222 and 223 where minimum RH levels are forecast to drop below 15 percent.
Sunday through Tuesday..The large upper ridge to the west starts to move inland, with the high centroid pushing into the Great Basin region for the start of the next work week. This will effectively eliminate the northwest flow aloft that has been in place for a while now. Meanwhile, a stronger upper shortwave drops south into the Rockies early Sunday, pushing a cold front south into CO through the morning. This will knock temps back to below normal across the plains, as well as support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday across much of the area, including the eastern plains. Tuesday will start to warm back up again with less convection chances. As for temps, plan on highs in the mid 70s to around 80F each day for the high valleys. For the plains, temps will climb into the upper 70s to upper 80s Sunday and Monday, then mid 80s to lower 90s for Tuesday. Moore
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KALS: VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours. West winds will pick up this afternoon, gusting to around 25-30 knots, before weakening in the evening.
KCOS and KPUB: Southeast upsloping winds will dominate most of the morning, before turning more southerly in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in the area around mid-afternoon, moving in from the nearby higher terrain, lowering cloud ceilings and generating gusty outflow winds. If a thunderstorm manages to move close to the terminals, winds will become strong and erratic, around 40 knots or so, and precipitation could briefly limit visibility into MVFR range.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KAFF
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KAFF
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KAFF
Wind History graph: AFF
(wind in knots)
Pueblo, CO,
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